Morehead St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating-6.2#279
Expected Predictive Rating-7.1#289
Pace65.9#264
Improvement+1.7#72

Offense
Total Offense-2.9#248
First Shot-2.5#250
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#206
Layup/Dunks-1.4#230
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#104
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#303
Freethrows+1.6#88
Improvement+2.2#33

Defense
Total Defense-3.3#282
First Shot-2.0#236
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#285
Layups/Dunks-0.2#172
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#344
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#47
Freethrows-2.4#324
Improvement-0.6#234
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.4% 16.2% 9.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 50.4% 56.9% 31.9%
.500 or above in Conference 76.3% 81.9% 60.5%
Conference Champion 19.6% 23.4% 9.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.2% 1.7% 7.2%
First Four8.4% 9.1% 6.3%
First Round10.2% 11.7% 5.9%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee Martin (Home) - 73.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 31 - 41 - 6
Quad 414 - 915 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 50   @ Louisville L 45-93 5%     0 - 1 -34.8 -24.5 -7.3
  Nov 08, 2024 27   @ Cincinnati L 56-83 3%     0 - 2 -10.7 -0.7 -13.3
  Nov 14, 2024 178   @ Chattanooga L 62-76 22%     0 - 3 -11.9 -12.8 +1.1
  Nov 20, 2024 261   Austin Peay W 63-58 59%     1 - 3 -3.5 -3.1 +0.2
  Nov 27, 2024 351   NJIT L 69-78 73%     1 - 4 -21.6 +1.2 -23.9
  Nov 29, 2024 241   @ Cleveland St. W 71-69 31%     2 - 4 +0.8 +1.8 -0.9
  Dec 04, 2024 186   @ Marshall L 77-80 23%     2 - 5 -1.3 +6.5 -7.7
  Dec 07, 2024 161   @ Ohio L 76-88 20%     2 - 6 -9.1 -0.6 -8.0
  Dec 19, 2024 327   Tennessee Martin W 75-68 74%    
  Dec 21, 2024 321   Tennessee St. W 77-71 71%    
  Dec 31, 2024 281   @ Southern Indiana L 69-72 39%    
  Jan 04, 2025 332   @ Tennessee Tech W 71-70 54%    
  Jan 09, 2025 244   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 66-71 34%    
  Jan 11, 2025 297   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 69-71 43%    
  Jan 16, 2025 328   Western Illinois W 71-64 73%    
  Jan 18, 2025 347   Lindenwood W 74-65 78%    
  Jan 23, 2025 322   @ Eastern Illinois L 67-68 50%    
  Jan 25, 2025 263   @ SIU Edwardsville L 66-70 37%    
  Jan 28, 2025 281   Southern Indiana W 72-69 61%    
  Jan 30, 2025 332   Tennessee Tech W 74-67 74%    
  Feb 06, 2025 297   Southeast Missouri St. W 72-68 64%    
  Feb 08, 2025 244   Arkansas Little Rock W 69-68 55%    
  Feb 13, 2025 347   @ Lindenwood W 71-68 59%    
  Feb 15, 2025 328   Western Illinois W 71-64 73%    
  Feb 20, 2025 263   SIU Edwardsville W 69-67 58%    
  Feb 22, 2025 322   Eastern Illinois W 71-65 70%    
  Feb 27, 2025 321   @ Tennessee St. L 73-74 50%    
  Mar 01, 2025 327   @ Tennessee Martin W 72-71 52%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.6 5.1 4.4 3.1 1.4 0.4 0.1 19.6 1st
2nd 0.2 2.1 5.2 5.0 2.7 0.9 0.1 0.0 16.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 5.4 4.6 1.6 0.2 0.0 13.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 1.3 5.0 4.1 1.1 0.1 11.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 4.2 4.0 0.9 0.0 9.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.0 3.9 1.0 0.1 8.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.0 3.4 1.1 0.1 0.0 6.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.6 1.3 0.1 5.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 1.1 0.1 0.0 4.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 2.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.7 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.5 4.1 6.3 8.5 10.6 12.1 12.7 12.3 10.3 8.0 5.3 3.3 1.4 0.4 0.1 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4
18-2 99.4% 1.4    1.4 0.0
17-3 96.0% 3.1    2.9 0.3
16-4 83.4% 4.4    3.5 0.9 0.1 0.0
15-5 63.8% 5.1    3.0 1.8 0.3 0.0
14-6 35.1% 3.6    1.3 1.6 0.6 0.1
13-7 10.9% 1.3    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 1.2% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 19.6% 19.6 12.8 5.1 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 65.5% 65.5% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.4% 50.8% 50.8% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2
18-2 1.4% 45.7% 45.7% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.8
17-3 3.3% 41.1% 41.1% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.5 1.9
16-4 5.3% 37.2% 37.2% 15.7 0.0 0.5 1.4 3.3
15-5 8.0% 31.1% 31.1% 15.9 0.3 2.2 5.5
14-6 10.3% 26.1% 26.1% 16.0 0.1 2.6 7.6
13-7 12.3% 17.7% 17.7% 16.0 0.0 2.1 10.1
12-8 12.7% 10.6% 10.6% 16.0 0.0 1.3 11.4
11-9 12.1% 5.8% 5.8% 16.0 0.0 0.7 11.4
10-10 10.6% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.5 10.2
9-11 8.5% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.2 8.3
8-12 6.3% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 6.2
7-13 4.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.1
6-14 2.5% 2.5
5-15 1.3% 1.3
4-16 0.6% 0.6
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 14.4% 14.4% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.1 11.7 85.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 12.5 5.6 47.2 36.1 11.1