Morehead St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-10.3#329
Expected Predictive Rating-7.3#290
Pace62.4#329
Improvement-3.9#322

Offense
Total Offense-5.9#325
First Shot-5.1#315
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#242
Layup/Dunks-2.3#270
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#125
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.9#323
Freethrows+1.3#97
Improvement-2.6#302

Defense
Total Defense-4.4#305
First Shot-3.3#281
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#284
Layups/Dunks-0.1#170
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#351
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#104
Freethrows-1.5#282
Improvement-1.3#260
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.2% 1.4% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 4.4% 6.3% 0.7%
.500 or above in Conference 80.9% 100.0% 44.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.2% 1.3% 0.9%
First Round0.6% 0.6% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Illinois (Home) - 65.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 33 - 33 - 6
Quad 410 - 1013 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 21   @ Louisville L 45-93 1%     0 - 1 -29.7 -22.2 -4.5
  Nov 08, 2024 46   @ Cincinnati L 56-83 2%     0 - 2 -13.2 -0.9 -15.6
  Nov 14, 2024 119   @ Chattanooga L 62-76 8%     0 - 3 -8.7 -12.9 +4.4
  Nov 20, 2024 276   Austin Peay W 63-58 45%     1 - 3 -4.0 -5.3 +1.9
  Nov 27, 2024 346   NJIT L 69-78 59%     1 - 4 -21.6 +1.1 -23.8
  Nov 29, 2024 170   @ Cleveland St. W 71-69 13%     2 - 4 +4.1 +2.8 +1.4
  Dec 04, 2024 190   @ Marshall L 77-80 15%     2 - 5 -2.1 +5.4 -7.6
  Dec 07, 2024 172   @ Ohio L 76-88 13%     2 - 6 -10.0 +0.1 -9.6
  Dec 19, 2024 306   Tennessee Martin W 70-69 OT 52%     3 - 6 1 - 0 -9.9 -9.6 -0.4
  Dec 21, 2024 269   Tennessee St. W 74-68 42%     4 - 6 2 - 0 -2.2 +2.2 -4.1
  Dec 31, 2024 343   @ Southern Indiana W 70-68 48%     5 - 6 3 - 0 -7.7 -2.6 -4.9
  Jan 04, 2025 308   @ Tennessee Tech L 55-74 33%     5 - 7 3 - 1 -24.9 -19.8 -5.5
  Jan 09, 2025 233   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 59-53 20%     6 - 7 4 - 1 +4.6 -6.5 +11.5
  Jan 11, 2025 217   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 67-56 18%     7 - 7 5 - 1 +10.4 +2.5 +9.1
  Jan 16, 2025 351   Western Illinois W 51-47 69%     8 - 7 6 - 1 -11.5 -20.0 +9.3
  Jan 18, 2025 335   Lindenwood W 82-65 62%     9 - 7 7 - 1 +3.5 +12.2 -7.3
  Jan 23, 2025 338   @ Eastern Illinois W 73-66 45%     10 - 7 8 - 1 -1.9 +17.8 -18.1
  Jan 25, 2025 234   @ SIU Edwardsville L 54-65 20%     10 - 8 8 - 2 -12.4 -12.6 -0.8
  Jan 28, 2025 343   Southern Indiana W 66-65 67%     11 - 8 9 - 2 -13.8 -4.0 -9.6
  Jan 30, 2025 308   Tennessee Tech L 64-72 53%     11 - 9 9 - 3 -19.0 -10.1 -9.4
  Feb 06, 2025 217   Southeast Missouri St. L 51-80 33%     11 - 10 9 - 4 -34.7 -19.4 -17.5
  Feb 08, 2025 233   Arkansas Little Rock L 62-76 35%     11 - 11 9 - 5 -20.5 -3.8 -18.1
  Feb 13, 2025 335   @ Lindenwood L 60-73 43%     11 - 12 9 - 6 -21.4 -11.0 -11.1
  Feb 15, 2025 351   @ Western Illinois L 67-72 50%     11 - 13 9 - 7 -15.4 -8.5 -7.1
  Feb 20, 2025 234   SIU Edwardsville L 62-80 36%     11 - 14 9 - 8 -24.5 -4.8 -21.8
  Feb 22, 2025 338   Eastern Illinois W 65-61 65%    
  Feb 27, 2025 269   @ Tennessee St. L 68-75 24%    
  Mar 01, 2025 306   @ Tennessee Martin L 66-70 31%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.7 1.8 3rd
4th 0.0 5.2 3.8 9.0 4th
5th 8.0 19.1 27.1 5th
6th 1.9 34.0 4.1 40.0 6th
7th 8.3 4.8 13.1 7th
8th 9.0 9.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 19.2 46.9 28.5 5.5 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 5.5% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.2 5.2
11-9 28.5% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.4 28.1
10-10 46.9% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.5 46.4
9-11 19.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 19.1
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.2 98.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.7%
Lose Out 11.4%