Morehead St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.0#274
Expected Predictive Rating+1.0#174
Pace62.4#348
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-4.5#308
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.5#217
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.3% 22.7% 14.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.3 15.6
.500 or above 54.9% 74.5% 49.4%
.500 or above in Conference 76.2% 85.1% 73.7%
Conference Champion 23.5% 33.1% 20.7%
Last Place in Conference 3.4% 1.5% 4.0%
First Four7.6% 7.5% 7.7%
First Round12.4% 18.9% 10.6%
Second Round0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Chattanooga (Away) - 22.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 31 - 31 - 6
Quad 414 - 915 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 49   @ Louisville L 45-93 5%     0 - 1 -35.3 -24.5 -7.8
  Nov 08, 2024 22   @ Cincinnati L 56-83 3%     0 - 2 -11.0 -2.3 -12.1
  Nov 14, 2024 179   @ Chattanooga L 63-71 22%    
  Nov 20, 2024 215   Austin Peay L 63-64 50%    
  Nov 27, 2024 354   NJIT W 67-59 76%    
  Nov 29, 2024 220   @ Cleveland St. L 63-69 29%    
  Dec 04, 2024 200   @ Marshall L 66-73 27%    
  Dec 07, 2024 158   @ Ohio L 65-75 19%    
  Dec 19, 2024 314   Tennessee Martin W 73-68 69%    
  Dec 21, 2024 306   Tennessee St. W 69-65 65%    
  Dec 31, 2024 317   @ Southern Indiana L 65-66 49%    
  Jan 04, 2025 325   @ Tennessee Tech W 66-65 51%    
  Jan 09, 2025 279   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 67-70 40%    
  Jan 11, 2025 321   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 67-68 50%    
  Jan 16, 2025 312   Western Illinois W 65-60 67%    
  Jan 18, 2025 351   Lindenwood W 71-61 80%    
  Jan 23, 2025 336   @ Eastern Illinois W 69-67 55%    
  Jan 25, 2025 293   @ SIU Edwardsville L 64-66 43%    
  Jan 28, 2025 317   Southern Indiana W 69-63 69%    
  Jan 30, 2025 325   Tennessee Tech W 69-63 71%    
  Feb 06, 2025 321   Southeast Missouri St. W 71-65 69%    
  Feb 08, 2025 279   Arkansas Little Rock W 70-67 60%    
  Feb 13, 2025 351   @ Lindenwood W 68-64 63%    
  Feb 15, 2025 312   Western Illinois W 65-60 67%    
  Feb 20, 2025 293   SIU Edwardsville W 67-63 63%    
  Feb 22, 2025 336   Eastern Illinois W 72-64 74%    
  Feb 27, 2025 306   @ Tennessee St. L 66-68 44%    
  Mar 01, 2025 314   @ Tennessee Martin L 70-71 49%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 2.9 5.0 5.6 4.7 2.8 1.2 0.3 23.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.1 5.2 3.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 15.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 4.2 4.5 1.9 0.5 0.0 12.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 3.9 4.0 1.4 0.1 0.0 10.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.3 3.8 1.0 0.1 8.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.4 3.6 1.0 0.1 7.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.2 1.1 0.1 6.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.3 1.1 0.1 5.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.8 1.0 0.1 4.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.2 0.6 0.1 3.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.9 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.7 2.9 4.2 5.8 7.6 9.2 10.2 10.8 10.9 10.2 8.7 6.9 4.9 2.8 1.2 0.3 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 100.0% 1.2    1.2 0.0
18-2 98.5% 2.8    2.7 0.1
17-3 95.0% 4.7    4.2 0.5 0.0
16-4 81.6% 5.6    4.2 1.4 0.1
15-5 57.8% 5.0    2.9 1.8 0.3 0.0
14-6 28.4% 2.9    1.1 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-7 7.5% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 23.5% 23.5 16.6 5.3 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 65.6% 65.6% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1
19-1 1.2% 63.2% 63.2% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.4
18-2 2.8% 49.9% 49.9% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.2 1.4
17-3 4.9% 43.7% 43.7% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.8 2.8
16-4 6.9% 38.6% 38.6% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.7 4.2
15-5 8.7% 31.6% 31.6% 15.8 0.1 0.5 2.2 6.0
14-6 10.2% 23.2% 23.2% 15.9 0.0 0.2 2.2 7.8
13-7 10.9% 15.7% 15.7% 16.0 0.0 1.7 9.2
12-8 10.8% 9.7% 9.7% 16.0 0.0 1.1 9.8
11-9 10.2% 6.4% 6.4% 16.0 0.0 0.6 9.5
10-10 9.2% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.3 8.9
9-11 7.6% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.2 7.4
8-12 5.8% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 5.7
7-13 4.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.2
6-14 2.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.9
5-15 1.7% 1.7
4-16 0.9% 0.9
3-17 0.5% 0.5
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 16.3% 16.3% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.3 11.1 83.7 0.0%