Morehead St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.7#325
Expected Predictive Rating-14.0#344
Pace68.5#210
Improvement-1.9#306

Offense
Total Offense-4.9#304
First Shot-5.0#312
After Offensive Rebound+0.1#178
Layup/Dunks-3.4#296
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#80
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#284
Freethrows-0.2#193
Improvement-1.1#266

Defense
Total Defense-4.7#332
First Shot-1.3#219
After Offensive Rebounds-3.4#340
Layups/Dunks-1.0#218
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#107
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#209
Freethrows-0.7#234
Improvement-0.8#262
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.5% 3.3% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 6.2% 9.0% 2.3%
.500 or above in Conference 31.6% 41.0% 18.7%
Conference Champion 2.6% 3.8% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 14.2% 8.6% 21.8%
First Four2.0% 2.6% 1.3%
First Round1.5% 2.0% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas Little Rock (Home) - 57.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 41 - 9
Quad 49 - 1110 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 50 @Wake Forest L 65-81 3%     0 - 1 -2.5 -9.1 +8.6
  Sun, Nov 9 19 @Georgia L 81-120 1%     0 - 2 -20.5 +6.1 -21.7
  Tue, Nov 11 33 @Clemson L 56-83 2%     0 - 3 -10.7 +0.0 -15.2
  Fri, Nov 21 117 @East Tennessee St. L 62-77 8%     0 - 4 -8.8 -2.7 -7.2
  Sat, Nov 22 360 Louisiana Monroe W 83-80 67%     1 - 4 -11.2 +2.8 -14.1
  Sat, Nov 29 356 @IU Indianapolis L 80-85 54%     1 - 5 -15.8 -11.2 -3.9
  Tue, Dec 2 111 @Murray St. L 52-84 7%     1 - 6 -25.3 -17.0 -9.6
  Sat, Dec 6 262 @Presbyterian L 72-80 25%     1 - 7 -10.5 +2.1 -12.8
  Tue, Dec 16 315 Arkansas Little Rock W 71-69 58%    
  Sat, Dec 20 314 @Southern Indiana L 74-78 35%    
  Thu, Jan 1 236 @Lindenwood L 71-79 22%    
  Sat, Jan 3 230 @SIU Edwardsville L 64-73 21%    
  Thu, Jan 8 240 Tennessee Martin L 69-71 42%    
  Sat, Jan 10 216 Southeast Missouri St. L 73-76 38%    
  Thu, Jan 15 249 @Tennessee St. L 70-78 24%    
  Sat, Jan 17 271 @Tennessee Tech L 71-78 27%    
  Thu, Jan 22 361 Western Illinois W 73-65 76%    
  Sat, Jan 24 329 Eastern Illinois W 71-68 61%    
  Thu, Jan 29 230 SIU Edwardsville L 67-70 41%    
  Sat, Jan 31 236 Lindenwood L 74-76 42%    
  Thu, Feb 5 216 @Southeast Missouri St. L 70-79 20%    
  Sat, Feb 7 240 @Tennessee Martin L 66-74 23%    
  Thu, Feb 12 271 Tennessee Tech L 74-75 47%    
  Sat, Feb 14 249 Tennessee St. L 73-75 44%    
  Thu, Feb 19 329 @Eastern Illinois L 68-71 40%    
  Sat, Feb 21 361 @Western Illinois W 70-68 57%    
  Tue, Feb 24 314 Southern Indiana W 77-75 57%    
  Thu, Feb 26 315 @Arkansas Little Rock L 68-72 36%    
Projected Record 9 - 19 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.6 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 1.5 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 2.4 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 5.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 3.2 2.0 0.3 0.0 6.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 4.0 2.8 0.4 0.0 8.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 4.4 3.8 0.8 0.0 10.0 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 4.6 4.7 1.2 0.1 0.0 11.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.5 5.1 5.2 1.7 0.1 13.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.2 5.2 5.2 1.8 0.1 14.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.7 4.7 3.9 1.2 0.1 13.8 10th
11th 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.1 2.6 1.6 0.5 0.0 8.7 11th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.0 5.7 8.6 11.2 12.8 12.9 12.1 10.4 8.1 5.6 3.6 2.2 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 96.1% 0.2    0.1 0.0
16-4 83.1% 0.4    0.3 0.1
15-5 70.8% 0.8    0.4 0.3 0.0
14-6 35.8% 0.8    0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 11.5% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.6% 2.6 1.3 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.2% 21.6% 21.6% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.5% 26.1% 26.1% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.4
15-5 1.1% 22.9% 22.9% 15.9 0.0 0.2 0.8
14-6 2.2% 21.6% 21.6% 16.0 0.0 0.5 1.7
13-7 3.6% 12.3% 12.3% 16.0 0.0 0.4 3.2
12-8 5.6% 6.0% 6.0% 16.0 0.3 5.3
11-9 8.1% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.3 7.7
10-10 10.4% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.2 10.2
9-11 12.1% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 12.0
8-12 12.9% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 12.8
7-13 12.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.8
6-14 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 11.2
5-15 8.6% 8.6
4-16 5.7% 5.7
3-17 3.0% 3.0
2-18 1.6% 1.6
1-19 0.5% 0.5
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 2.4 97.5 0.0%