Arkansas Little Rock
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.6#244
Expected Predictive Rating-2.0#198
Pace69.5#164
Improvement-1.3#264

Offense
Total Offense-5.0#318
First Shot-4.5#307
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#218
Layup/Dunks-3.4#295
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#69
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#258
Freethrows-0.7#226
Improvement-2.1#320

Defense
Total Defense+0.4#156
First Shot+4.7#47
After Offensive Rebounds-4.4#362
Layups/Dunks+4.0#53
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#58
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#155
Freethrows-1.8#298
Improvement+0.8#126
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.9% 24.4% 14.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.4 15.7
.500 or above 79.6% 85.9% 67.8%
.500 or above in Conference 85.4% 90.6% 75.7%
Conference Champion 28.7% 36.3% 14.9%
Last Place in Conference 1.5% 0.7% 2.8%
First Four7.5% 7.9% 6.8%
First Round17.1% 20.5% 10.9%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: SIU Edwardsville (Home) - 64.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 31 - 21 - 5
Quad 416 - 818 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 181   @ Winthrop L 67-82 26%     0 - 1 -13.0 -12.3 +0.9
  Nov 12, 2024 111   @ Arkansas St. L 63-80 15%     0 - 2 -10.3 -2.0 -9.1
  Nov 16, 2024 234   @ Texas San Antonio W 81-64 36%     1 - 2 +16.1 +3.7 +12.0
  Nov 20, 2024 247   @ Tulsa W 71-57 39%     2 - 2 +12.2 +5.3 +8.4
  Nov 22, 2024 29   @ Arkansas L 67-79 4%     2 - 3 +3.8 -3.2 +8.1
  Nov 25, 2024 16   @ Illinois L 34-92 3%     2 - 4 -39.9 -29.4 -11.8
  Nov 27, 2024 358   Maryland Eastern Shore W 78-59 87%     3 - 4 +2.0 -1.5 +4.0
  Dec 04, 2024 342   Central Arkansas W 63-57 82%     4 - 4 -8.3 -18.9 +10.3
  Dec 15, 2024 215   Illinois-Chicago L 69-77 OT 54%     4 - 5 -13.7 -8.8 -4.6
  Dec 19, 2024 263   SIU Edwardsville W 69-65 65%    
  Dec 21, 2024 322   Eastern Illinois W 70-63 76%    
  Jan 02, 2025 327   @ Tennessee Martin W 72-70 58%    
  Jan 04, 2025 321   @ Tennessee St. W 73-72 56%    
  Jan 09, 2025 279   Morehead St. W 71-66 66%    
  Jan 11, 2025 281   Southern Indiana W 72-67 66%    
  Jan 14, 2025 297   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 69-70 48%    
  Jan 18, 2025 332   @ Tennessee Tech W 71-68 59%    
  Jan 23, 2025 328   @ Western Illinois W 67-65 58%    
  Jan 25, 2025 347   @ Lindenwood W 71-67 64%    
  Jan 30, 2025 321   Tennessee St. W 76-69 75%    
  Feb 01, 2025 327   Tennessee Martin W 75-67 77%    
  Feb 06, 2025 281   @ Southern Indiana L 69-70 45%    
  Feb 08, 2025 279   @ Morehead St. L 68-69 45%    
  Feb 11, 2025 297   Southeast Missouri St. W 72-66 69%    
  Feb 13, 2025 332   Tennessee Tech W 74-65 78%    
  Feb 20, 2025 347   Lindenwood W 74-64 82%    
  Feb 22, 2025 328   Western Illinois W 70-62 77%    
  Feb 27, 2025 322   @ Eastern Illinois W 67-66 55%    
  Mar 01, 2025 263   @ SIU Edwardsville L 66-68 43%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.6 7.2 6.7 4.8 2.6 0.9 0.2 28.7 1st
2nd 0.2 2.2 5.5 6.2 3.4 1.1 0.2 0.0 18.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 5.5 4.8 1.8 0.3 0.0 14.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 4.4 4.1 1.1 0.1 0.0 10.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.5 3.2 3.4 0.9 0.1 8.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.1 3.2 0.9 0.0 6.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.4 0.9 0.1 4.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 0.9 0.1 3.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 2.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.1 1.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.4 3.9 6.1 8.6 10.7 13.0 13.0 12.7 10.9 7.8 5.0 2.6 0.9 0.2 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 0.9    0.9 0.0
18-2 99.8% 2.6    2.5 0.0
17-3 96.7% 4.8    4.4 0.4 0.0
16-4 86.0% 6.7    5.3 1.3 0.1 0.0
15-5 65.9% 7.2    4.4 2.4 0.4 0.0
14-6 36.5% 4.6    1.8 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-7 11.8% 1.5    0.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-8 1.4% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 28.7% 28.7 19.8 6.9 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 57.5% 57.5% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
19-1 0.9% 55.7% 55.7% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.4
18-2 2.6% 51.7% 51.7% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.0 1.2
17-3 5.0% 48.1% 48.1% 14.9 0.1 0.5 1.5 0.4 2.6
16-4 7.8% 41.9% 41.9% 15.3 0.0 0.2 1.7 1.3 4.5
15-5 10.9% 34.0% 34.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.6 7.2
14-6 12.7% 28.4% 28.4% 15.8 0.0 0.5 3.1 9.1
13-7 13.0% 19.7% 19.7% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.4 10.5
12-8 13.0% 13.1% 13.1% 16.0 0.1 1.6 11.3
11-9 10.7% 8.7% 8.7% 16.0 0.0 0.9 9.8
10-10 8.6% 5.9% 5.9% 16.0 0.0 0.5 8.1
9-11 6.1% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.2 5.9
8-12 3.9% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.1 3.9
7-13 2.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.4
6-14 1.3% 1.3
5-15 0.6% 0.6
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 20.9% 20.9% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 5.7 13.2 79.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 12.4 8.0 50.0 34.0 8.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0%