Central Arkansas
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.3#342
Expected Predictive Rating-13.1#340
Pace67.9#212
Improvement-0.2#204

Offense
Total Offense-6.8#346
First Shot-5.7#333
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#248
Layup/Dunks-6.0#346
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#76
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#169
Freethrows-1.9#290
Improvement+0.0#177

Defense
Total Defense-4.5#314
First Shot-5.1#334
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#142
Layups/Dunks+4.3#49
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#54
3 Pt Jumpshots-12.5#363
Freethrows+1.4#86
Improvement-0.2#210
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 1.1% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.3% 2.0% 0.3%
.500 or above in Conference 7.6% 14.4% 7.6%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 31.1% 17.6% 31.2%
First Four0.2% 1.1% 0.2%
First Round0.1% 0.8% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oklahoma (Away) - 0.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 31 - 61 - 12
Quad 46 - 107 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 44   @ BYU L 50-88 2%     0 - 1 -24.0 -16.7 -8.0
  Nov 07, 2024 66   @ Utah L 63-98 3%     0 - 2 -23.6 -9.8 -10.5
  Nov 16, 2024 328   @ Western Illinois L 61-63 34%     0 - 3 -8.9 -6.5 -2.7
  Nov 21, 2024 297   Southeast Missouri St. L 73-77 OT 46%     0 - 4 -14.2 -10.3 -3.4
  Nov 24, 2024 182   UNC Asheville W 92-83 2OT 24%     1 - 4 +4.9 +2.5 +1.1
  Nov 30, 2024 110   @ Georgia Tech L 68-87 6%     1 - 5 -12.1 +5.6 -19.3
  Dec 04, 2024 244   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 57-63 18%     1 - 6 -7.6 -16.8 +9.4
  Dec 07, 2024 362   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff L 78-84 61%     1 - 7 -20.2 -5.4 -14.7
  Dec 14, 2024 29   @ Arkansas L 57-82 1%     1 - 8 -9.2 -3.2 -7.9
  Dec 16, 2024 345   The Citadel W 73-71 63%     2 - 8 -12.7 -7.3 -5.4
  Dec 22, 2024 37   @ Oklahoma L 58-84 1%    
  Jan 02, 2025 218   Eastern Kentucky L 71-76 30%    
  Jan 04, 2025 333   Bellarmine W 73-71 58%    
  Jan 09, 2025 336   @ Stetson L 71-75 37%    
  Jan 11, 2025 180   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 60-73 11%    
  Jan 16, 2025 167   @ North Florida L 71-85 10%    
  Jan 18, 2025 204   @ Jacksonville L 63-75 13%    
  Jan 23, 2025 261   Austin Peay L 63-66 40%    
  Jan 25, 2025 107   Lipscomb L 65-77 13%    
  Jan 29, 2025 348   West Georgia W 72-68 63%    
  Feb 01, 2025 193   @ North Alabama L 64-77 12%    
  Feb 05, 2025 280   Queens L 74-76 42%    
  Feb 08, 2025 261   @ Austin Peay L 60-69 21%    
  Feb 13, 2025 204   Jacksonville L 66-72 29%    
  Feb 15, 2025 167   North Florida L 74-82 24%    
  Feb 18, 2025 280   @ Queens L 71-79 24%    
  Feb 20, 2025 348   @ West Georgia L 69-71 42%    
  Feb 24, 2025 193   North Alabama L 67-74 27%    
  Feb 26, 2025 107   @ Lipscomb L 62-80 5%    
Projected Record 7 - 22 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.8 0.5 0.0 4.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.1 1.1 0.1 6.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 3.0 4.7 2.0 0.2 0.0 10.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 4.3 6.8 3.0 0.4 0.0 15.4 9th
10th 0.1 1.4 5.7 7.9 3.7 0.5 0.0 19.3 10th
11th 0.2 2.1 6.5 8.1 3.5 0.5 0.0 20.8 11th
12th 0.9 3.7 6.7 5.7 2.3 0.3 0.0 19.7 12th
Total 0.9 3.8 8.8 13.6 16.9 16.5 14.4 10.4 7.0 4.1 2.0 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 71.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 36.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 19.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.1% 6.5% 6.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1
12-6 0.4% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.4
11-7 0.9% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.0 0.9
10-8 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 2.0
9-9 4.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 4.0
8-10 7.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 7.0
7-11 10.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.4
6-12 14.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.3
5-13 16.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.5
4-14 16.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 16.9
3-15 13.6% 13.6
2-16 8.8% 8.8
1-17 3.8% 3.8
0-18 0.9% 0.9
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.9%