Stetson
Atlantic Sun
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-10.8#336
Expected Predictive Rating-19.6#362
Pace70.0#148
Improvement+2.4#45

Offense
Total Offense-4.1#288
First Shot-3.6#286
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#215
Layup/Dunks-1.0#216
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#304
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#147
Freethrows-1.3#264
Improvement+1.6#60

Defense
Total Defense-6.7#350
First Shot-5.9#347
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#255
Layups/Dunks-3.2#294
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#241
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#288
Freethrows+0.7#139
Improvement+0.8#128
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.5% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 12.7% 24.3% 12.5%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 23.6% 11.7% 23.8%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
First Round0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: LSU (Away) - 1.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 81 - 12
Quad 45 - 126 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 294   Nebraska Omaha L 76-79 47%     0 - 1 -13.0 -2.9 -10.0
  Nov 11, 2024 345   @ The Citadel L 52-74 42%     0 - 2 -30.7 -22.1 -9.5
  Nov 16, 2024 37   @ Oklahoma L 64-85 2%     0 - 3 -6.1 -2.1 -3.9
  Nov 21, 2024 206   Toledo L 78-103 21%     0 - 4 -27.3 -3.8 -22.3
  Nov 22, 2024 164   East Carolina L 64-71 17%     0 - 5 -7.5 -6.7 -1.0
  Nov 23, 2024 155   La Salle L 77-92 15%     0 - 6 -14.7 +1.4 -15.4
  Dec 03, 2024 145   @ South Florida L 72-74 10%     0 - 7 +1.7 +0.2 +1.5
  Dec 08, 2024 229   Mercer L 83-89 OT 34%     0 - 8 -12.6 -3.8 -8.0
  Dec 14, 2024 242   Florida International L 72-81 37%     0 - 9 -16.5 -2.7 -13.7
  Dec 17, 2024 60   @ LSU L 65-88 1%    
  Dec 29, 2024 8   @ Florida L 63-95 0.2%   
  Jan 02, 2025 280   @ Queens L 75-83 24%    
  Jan 04, 2025 348   @ West Georgia L 72-74 43%    
  Jan 09, 2025 342   Central Arkansas W 75-71 63%    
  Jan 11, 2025 193   North Alabama L 71-77 28%    
  Jan 16, 2025 280   Queens L 78-80 44%    
  Jan 18, 2025 348   West Georgia W 75-71 65%    
  Jan 23, 2025 218   @ Eastern Kentucky L 71-82 16%    
  Jan 25, 2025 333   @ Bellarmine L 74-77 38%    
  Jan 29, 2025 167   @ North Florida L 75-88 12%    
  Feb 01, 2025 180   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 64-77 13%    
  Feb 06, 2025 204   Jacksonville L 69-75 30%    
  Feb 08, 2025 218   Eastern Kentucky L 74-79 33%    
  Feb 13, 2025 107   @ Lipscomb L 65-83 5%    
  Feb 15, 2025 261   @ Austin Peay L 63-71 23%    
  Feb 18, 2025 167   North Florida L 78-85 26%    
  Feb 20, 2025 180   Florida Gulf Coast L 67-74 27%    
  Feb 24, 2025 333   Bellarmine W 77-74 59%    
  Feb 26, 2025 204   @ Jacksonville L 66-78 15%    
Projected Record 6 - 23 6 - 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.6 0.4 0.0 3.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.6 0.9 0.1 5.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.4 3.8 1.8 0.2 0.0 8.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 3.3 5.7 2.8 0.4 0.0 12.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 4.4 7.6 4.0 0.6 0.0 17.4 9th
10th 0.0 1.0 5.0 7.5 3.7 0.5 0.0 17.8 10th
11th 0.1 1.3 5.1 6.7 3.2 0.5 0.0 16.8 11th
12th 0.5 2.3 4.8 4.5 2.0 0.3 0.0 14.4 12th
Total 0.5 2.4 6.1 10.6 14.5 15.7 15.5 12.8 9.1 6.2 3.5 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 66.7% 0.0    0.0
15-3 75.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 32.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 12.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.1% 8.6% 8.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.3% 4.3% 4.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.3
12-6 0.8% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.0 0.8
11-7 1.7% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.1 1.7
10-8 3.5% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 3.5
9-9 6.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 6.2
8-10 9.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 9.0
7-11 12.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.8
6-12 15.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.5
5-13 15.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.7
4-14 14.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.5
3-15 10.6% 10.6
2-16 6.1% 6.1
1-17 2.4% 2.4
0-18 0.5% 0.5
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%