Stetson
Atlantic Sun
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -10.8 #332
Expected Predictive Rating -8.5 #306
Pace 69.0 #176
Improvement +4.0 #33

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #303 D+ D- D D+ D+
Defense #337 F D D+ B- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #331 1.19 #138 -3.3 #291
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #160 0.72 #217 +0.0 #176
Three Pointers 47% #65 0.92 #295 +0.7 #155
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #253 -2.6 #253
Freethrows 16.5 #250 69% #290 11.4 #272
Second Chance 25.0% #324 0.98 #267 0.24 #325
Turnovers 18.5% #301
Total Offense -4.9 #303

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #178 1.32 #345 -3.5 #295
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #247 0.89 #336 -0.3 #202
Three Pointers 43% #123 1.06 #243 -2.0 #273
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #337 -5.7 #337
Freethrows 16.1 #93 72% #164 11.6 #98
Second Chance 30.6% #185 1.20 #341 0.37 #301
Turnovers 14.9% #278
Total Defense -5.9 #337

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.1% #265 0.7% #229
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.0% #239 10.5% #338
Possession Length 18.1 #259 16.2 #32
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #281 0.19 #232
Improvement +3.1 #38 +0.9 #125

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.4% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.6% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 19.5% 42.5% 16.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 10.5% 2.5% 11.5%
First Four0.8% 1.2% 0.7%
First Round0.4% 0.7% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Austin Peay (Away) - 11.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 61 - 11
Quad 49 - 109 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 122 @Rhode Island L 62 - 93 7% -17  0 - 1 -25 -9 D F F -14 F F D+
 Mon, Nov 10 40 @Miami (FL) L 61 - 102 2% -18  0 - 2 -26 -11 F C- D+ -10 F A- C
 Sun, Nov 16 289 @Western Carolina L 65 - 76 27% -8  0 - 3 -15 -14 F D+ B- -1 F A- A+
 Wed, Nov 19 265 Howard W 64 - 60 42% +10  1 - 3 -5 -8 F F F +4 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Nov 22 349 VMI W 99 - 80 67% +9  2 - 3 +4 +23 A+ A- B -19 F F F
 Tue, Nov 25 154 Wright St. L 62 - 79 22% -15  2 - 4 -20 -8 D- C+ F -13 F F A-
 Sat, Nov 29 284 Southern Utah L 68 - 70 35% +3  2 - 5 -9 -6 D+ C F -3 D C C-
 Sun, Nov 30 200 @Robert Morris L 62 - 80 15% -12  2 - 6 -18 -3 F D+ B+ -17 F F F
 Tue, Dec 2 79 @Grand Canyon L 45 - 67 4% -4  2 - 7 -12 -17 F F F +4 B+ D A
 Sat, Dec 6 69 @South Carolina L 51 - 82 3% -15  2 - 8 -20 -11 F D- A -12 F F A+
 Mon, Dec 22 57 @Oklahoma L 54 - 107 2% -25  2 - 9 -40 -13 F C- F -28 F F D+
 Thu, Jan 1 328 @North Alabama W 70 - 67 37% +0  3 - 9 1 - 0 -4 -3 B+ F F -1 B- D C+
 Sat, Jan 3 236 @Central Arkansas L 73 - 93 18% -13  3 - 10 1 - 1 -21 +2 A D F -24 F F C
 Thu, Jan 8 174 Lipscomb W 91 - 83 26% +11  4 - 10 2 - 1 +4 +10 A+ F A -6 F B- B
 Sat, Jan 10 171 Austin Peay L 69 - 81 26% -7  4 - 11 2 - 2 -16 -4 F B- C -12 C- F F
 Thu, Jan 15 338 West Georgia W 95 - 86 64% +4  5 - 11 3 - 2 -5 +10 A+ D- F -16 D- F F
 Sat, Jan 17 177 Queens L 81 - 87 26% -8  5 - 12 3 - 3 -10 +2 C+ D D -12 D B F
 Thu, Jan 22 174 @Lipscomb L 74 - 79 OT 12% -5  5 - 13 3 - 4 -3 -6 D+ F F +4 B- A+ F
 Fri, Jan 23 171 @Austin Peay L 67 - 80 11%
 Thu, Jan 29 350 @North Florida L 83 - 84 45%
 Sat, Jan 31 328 North Alabama W 76 - 73 60%
 Thu, Feb 5 300 @Bellarmine L 74 - 80 29%
 Sat, Feb 7 254 @Eastern Kentucky L 73 - 82 20%
 Thu, Feb 12 292 Jacksonville L 69 - 70 50%
 Sat, Feb 14 225 @Florida Gulf Coast L 72 - 82 17%
 Thu, Feb 19 236 Central Arkansas L 72 - 76 37%
 Sat, Feb 21 350 North Florida W 86 - 81 67%
 Thu, Feb 26 292 @Jacksonville L 67 - 73 28%
 Sat, Feb 28 225 Florida Gulf Coast L 75 - 79 36%
Totals 9 - 20 7 - 11 -11 -5 D+ D- D -6 F D D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 2.1 1.2 0.2 4.4 4th
5th 0.0 1.5 4.7 2.6 0.3 0.0 9.1 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 6.8 5.1 0.6 13.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 6.8 7.6 1.0 0.0 15.9 7th
8th 0.2 4.3 9.2 2.4 0.0 16.0 8th
9th 0.0 1.8 9.1 4.2 0.2 15.4 9th
10th 0.6 5.8 5.4 0.6 12.3 10th
11th 0.1 2.6 4.8 0.7 0.0 8.2 11th
12th 1.0 2.3 0.8 0.0 4.1 12th
Total 1.1 5.5 13.3 20.1 22.1 18.4 11.7 5.5 1.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0%
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.4% 5.9% 5.9% 16.0 0.0 0.4
11-7 1.9% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.1 1.8
10-8 5.5% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.2 5.3
9-9 11.7% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.2 11.5
8-10 18.4% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 18.2
7-11 22.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 22.0
6-12 20.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 20.0
5-13 13.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.3
4-14 5.5% 5.5
3-15 1.1% 1.1
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 16.0 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.1%