Stetson
Atlantic Sun
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.3#327
Expected Predictive Rating-18.2#357
Pace66.7#261
Improvement-0.2#205

Offense
Total Offense-3.7#282
First Shot-3.7#280
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#182
Layup/Dunks+2.9#88
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.4#360
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.4#42
Freethrows-6.5#360
Improvement-0.4#244

Defense
Total Defense-5.5#340
First Shot-4.2#299
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#273
Layups/Dunks-2.9#270
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#273
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#265
Freethrows+2.4#61
Improvement+0.2#166
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.2% 2.1% 1.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 5.8% 14.9% 4.2%
.500 or above in Conference 26.0% 38.0% 23.9%
Conference Champion 1.0% 2.1% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 14.7% 8.2% 15.8%
First Four0.8% 1.1% 0.8%
First Round0.8% 1.5% 0.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Toledo (Neutral) - 14.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 61 - 11
Quad 47 - 98 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 259   Nebraska Omaha L 76-79 46%     0 - 1 -11.1 -2.3 -8.8
  Nov 11, 2024 317   @ The Citadel L 52-74 37%     0 - 2 -27.7 -20.2 -8.3
  Nov 16, 2024 51   @ Oklahoma L 64-85 3%     0 - 3 -8.7 -2.1 -6.6
  Nov 21, 2024 137   Toledo L 70-81 15%    
  Dec 03, 2024 120   @ South Florida L 64-79 8%    
  Dec 08, 2024 252   Mercer L 71-73 44%    
  Dec 14, 2024 275   Florida International L 74-75 49%    
  Dec 17, 2024 48   @ LSU L 63-85 2%    
  Dec 29, 2024 19   @ Florida L 65-91 1%    
  Jan 02, 2025 297   @ Queens L 73-78 33%    
  Jan 04, 2025 353   @ West Georgia W 72-71 53%    
  Jan 09, 2025 340   Central Arkansas W 75-70 68%    
  Jan 11, 2025 186   North Alabama L 71-76 34%    
  Jan 16, 2025 297   Queens W 76-75 53%    
  Jan 18, 2025 353   West Georgia W 75-68 73%    
  Jan 23, 2025 199   @ Eastern Kentucky L 69-79 18%    
  Jan 25, 2025 336   @ Bellarmine L 69-71 44%    
  Jan 29, 2025 177   @ North Florida L 71-82 16%    
  Feb 01, 2025 218   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 62-72 20%    
  Feb 06, 2025 187   Jacksonville L 65-70 33%    
  Feb 08, 2025 199   Eastern Kentucky L 72-76 35%    
  Feb 13, 2025 152   @ Lipscomb L 67-80 13%    
  Feb 15, 2025 238   @ Austin Peay L 64-72 24%    
  Feb 18, 2025 177   North Florida L 74-79 32%    
  Feb 20, 2025 218   Florida Gulf Coast L 65-69 38%    
  Feb 24, 2025 336   Bellarmine W 72-68 64%    
  Feb 26, 2025 187   @ Jacksonville L 62-73 17%    
Projected Record 8 - 19 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.3 0.4 0.0 2.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.1 0.8 0.1 4.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.7 1.1 0.1 5.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.7 2.2 0.2 0.0 8.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.9 3.2 0.5 0.0 11.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.8 5.8 3.8 0.8 0.0 13.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 3.5 6.5 4.4 0.9 0.0 16.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.9 3.9 5.7 3.2 0.7 0.0 14.5 10th
11th 0.1 1.2 3.7 4.7 2.4 0.4 0.0 12.5 11th
12th 0.4 1.6 2.8 2.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 8.7 12th
Total 0.4 1.7 4.0 7.2 10.4 12.3 13.2 13.2 11.7 9.4 6.8 4.6 2.8 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-2 95.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 77.8% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-4 46.8% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 16.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.0% 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 27.5% 27.5% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.3% 17.6% 17.6% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 0.7% 15.5% 15.5% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6
13-5 1.5% 7.3% 7.3% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.4
12-6 2.8% 5.4% 5.4% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.6
11-7 4.6% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.0 0.2 4.3
10-8 6.8% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2 6.5
9-9 9.4% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 9.2
8-10 11.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 11.6
7-11 13.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 13.1
6-12 13.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 13.1
5-13 12.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.2
4-14 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 10.4
3-15 7.2% 7.2
2-16 4.0% 4.0
1-17 1.7% 1.7
0-18 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 98.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%