Stetson
Atlantic Sun
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.8#344
Expected Predictive Rating-20.1#362
Pace69.8#156
Improvement+1.1#115

Offense
Total Offense-4.5#298
First Shot-3.6#287
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#237
Layup/Dunks-1.6#244
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#297
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#122
Freethrows-1.5#273
Improvement+1.2#92

Defense
Total Defense-7.3#355
First Shot-5.8#348
After Offensive Rebounds-1.5#293
Layups/Dunks-3.0#291
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#225
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#321
Freethrows+1.2#104
Improvement-0.1#188
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 n/a 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 8.8% 22.5% 8.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 28.7% 2.5% 28.8%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida (Away) - 0.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 31 - 81 - 12
Quad 45 - 125 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 298   Nebraska Omaha L 76-79 44%     0 - 1 -13.2 -3.1 -10.1
  Nov 11, 2024 355   @ The Citadel L 52-74 42%     0 - 2 -31.9 -22.9 -9.8
  Nov 16, 2024 34   @ Oklahoma L 64-85 1%     0 - 3 -5.7 -2.9 -2.8
  Nov 21, 2024 211   Toledo L 78-103 19%     0 - 4 -27.5 -3.4 -22.9
  Nov 22, 2024 159   East Carolina L 64-71 14%     0 - 5 -7.2 -6.3 -1.1
  Nov 23, 2024 164   La Salle L 77-92 14%     0 - 6 -15.4 +1.0 -15.7
  Dec 03, 2024 180   @ South Florida L 72-74 10%     0 - 7 +0.0 -1.0 +0.9
  Dec 08, 2024 239   Mercer L 83-89 OT 33%     0 - 8 -13.3 -3.1 -9.4
  Dec 14, 2024 248   Florida International L 72-81 35%     0 - 9 -16.8 -2.7 -14.0
  Dec 17, 2024 56   @ LSU L 53-99 2%     0 - 10 -33.4 -13.2 -20.1
  Dec 29, 2024 7   @ Florida L 63-96 0.1%   
  Jan 02, 2025 270   @ Queens L 74-83 20%    
  Jan 04, 2025 341   @ West Georgia L 72-75 37%    
  Jan 09, 2025 339   Central Arkansas W 74-71 60%    
  Jan 11, 2025 182   North Alabama L 71-79 24%    
  Jan 16, 2025 270   Queens L 77-80 39%    
  Jan 18, 2025 341   West Georgia W 75-72 59%    
  Jan 23, 2025 220   @ Eastern Kentucky L 71-83 13%    
  Jan 25, 2025 343   @ Bellarmine L 74-77 39%    
  Jan 29, 2025 188   @ North Florida L 75-89 11%    
  Feb 01, 2025 192   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 64-77 11%    
  Feb 06, 2025 205   Jacksonville L 69-76 27%    
  Feb 08, 2025 220   Eastern Kentucky L 74-80 30%    
  Feb 13, 2025 107   @ Lipscomb L 64-83 4%    
  Feb 15, 2025 273   @ Austin Peay L 63-72 22%    
  Feb 18, 2025 188   North Florida L 78-86 25%    
  Feb 20, 2025 192   Florida Gulf Coast L 67-74 25%    
  Feb 24, 2025 343   Bellarmine W 77-74 60%    
  Feb 26, 2025 205   @ Jacksonville L 66-79 13%    
Projected Record 5 - 24 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.4 5th
6th 0.2 1.2 1.9 0.6 0.0 3.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.2 3.2 1.4 0.1 0.0 7.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 3.1 5.0 2.4 0.3 0.0 11.3 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 4.8 7.1 3.4 0.4 0.0 16.9 9th
10th 0.0 1.3 5.9 7.6 3.7 0.5 0.0 19.1 10th
11th 0.1 1.7 6.3 7.7 3.1 0.4 0.0 19.3 11th
12th 0.8 3.2 6.2 5.3 2.1 0.3 0.0 17.8 12th
Total 0.8 3.3 8.0 12.9 16.7 16.2 14.6 11.2 7.5 4.6 2.5 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 25.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4 16.7% 0.0    0.0
13-5 12.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.2% 4.9% 4.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2
12-6 0.5% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.5
11-7 1.0% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 1.0
10-8 2.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.5
9-9 4.6% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 4.5
8-10 7.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 7.5
7-11 11.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.2
6-12 14.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.6
5-13 16.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 16.2
4-14 16.7% 16.7
3-15 12.9% 12.9
2-16 8.0% 8.0
1-17 3.3% 3.3
0-18 0.8% 0.8
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.8%