Stetson
Atlantic Sun
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-12.1#348
Expected Predictive Rating-13.7#343
Pace69.0#170
Improvement+1.1#136

Offense
Total Offense-3.5#265
First Shot-1.9#225
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#280
Layup/Dunks-1.3#229
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#310
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#112
Freethrows-0.2#188
Improvement+2.7#50

Defense
Total Defense-8.6#360
First Shot-7.9#356
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#249
Layups/Dunks-4.6#330
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#189
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#329
Freethrows+0.8#128
Improvement-1.6#273
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 6.7% 18.4% 4.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 5.8% 1.1% 6.7%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Kentucky (Away) - 16.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 30 - 80 - 13
Quad 46 - 116 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 222   Nebraska Omaha L 76-79 28%     0 - 1 -9.1 -2.5 -6.6
  Nov 11, 2024 352   @ The Citadel L 52-74 42%     0 - 2 -32.2 -22.3 -10.7
  Nov 16, 2024 45   @ Oklahoma L 64-85 2%     0 - 3 -7.0 -3.7 -3.3
  Nov 21, 2024 194   Toledo L 78-103 16%     0 - 4 -26.6 -3.1 -22.2
  Nov 22, 2024 164   East Carolina L 64-71 13%     0 - 5 -6.9 -6.1 -1.0
  Nov 23, 2024 191   La Salle L 77-92 16%     0 - 6 -16.3 +0.8 -16.4
  Dec 03, 2024 154   @ South Florida L 72-74 8%     0 - 7 +1.4 -0.4 +1.8
  Dec 08, 2024 233   Mercer L 83-89 OT 30%     0 - 8 -12.8 -1.7 -10.4
  Dec 14, 2024 241   Florida International L 72-81 31%     0 - 9 -16.1 -2.1 -14.0
  Dec 17, 2024 63   @ LSU L 53-99 2%     0 - 10 -34.6 -13.5 -21.1
  Dec 29, 2024 5   @ Florida L 45-85 0.4%    0 - 11 -16.8 -21.0 +6.9
  Jan 02, 2025 210   @ Queens L 87-96 13%     0 - 12 0 - 1 -8.7 +6.1 -14.1
  Jan 04, 2025 349   @ West Georgia W 78-62 41%     1 - 12 1 - 1 +6.2 +1.2 +5.2
  Jan 09, 2025 339   Central Arkansas W 75-65 58%     2 - 12 2 - 1 -4.2 +5.7 -8.7
  Jan 11, 2025 163   North Alabama L 64-92 18%     2 - 13 2 - 2 -30.6 -5.0 -28.3
  Jan 16, 2025 210   Queens L 60-95 25%     2 - 14 2 - 3 -40.2 -18.9 -19.8
  Jan 18, 2025 349   West Georgia W 82-78 62%     3 - 14 3 - 3 -11.3 +5.1 -16.2
  Jan 23, 2025 248   @ Eastern Kentucky L 73-83 17%    
  Jan 25, 2025 353   @ Bellarmine L 75-76 43%    
  Jan 29, 2025 245   @ North Florida L 80-90 16%    
  Feb 01, 2025 168   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 64-79 9%    
  Feb 06, 2025 185   Jacksonville L 68-76 22%    
  Feb 08, 2025 248   Eastern Kentucky L 76-81 34%    
  Feb 13, 2025 91   @ Lipscomb L 64-85 2%    
  Feb 15, 2025 298   @ Austin Peay L 66-73 26%    
  Feb 18, 2025 245   North Florida L 82-87 34%    
  Feb 20, 2025 168   Florida Gulf Coast L 67-76 21%    
  Feb 24, 2025 353   Bellarmine W 78-74 65%    
  Feb 26, 2025 185   @ Jacksonville L 65-79 10%    
Projected Record 6 - 23 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 2.5 2.4 1.0 0.1 6.8 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 4.8 5.0 1.4 0.1 12.4 7th
8th 0.0 1.4 7.7 8.3 2.6 0.2 20.3 8th
9th 0.1 3.1 13.3 13.6 3.9 0.4 0.0 34.2 9th
10th 0.8 7.2 7.3 1.9 0.1 17.3 10th
11th 2.1 3.1 0.7 0.0 5.9 11th
12th 1.2 0.4 0.0 1.6 12th
Total 4.2 13.7 22.7 24.4 17.9 10.4 4.5 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.1
11-7 0.4% 0.4
10-8 1.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.7
9-9 4.5% 4.5
8-10 10.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.4
7-11 17.9% 17.9
6-12 24.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 24.4
5-13 22.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 22.7
4-14 13.7% 13.7
3-15 4.2% 4.2
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 4.2%