Jacksonville
Atlantic Sun
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.4#173
Expected Predictive Rating+1.4#148
Pace68.9#167
Improvement+2.1#97

Offense
Total Offense-2.3#235
First Shot-4.5#303
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#56
Layup/Dunks-2.3#269
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#218
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#131
Freethrows-2.7#324
Improvement+2.2#66

Defense
Total Defense+1.9#118
First Shot+0.8#156
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#90
Layups/Dunks-1.9#252
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#172
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#74
Freethrows-0.2#197
Improvement+0.0#181
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.3% 16.0% 12.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.2 14.6
.500 or above 98.1% 99.0% 94.7%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Conference Champion 37.3% 42.9% 17.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round15.3% 16.0% 12.8%
Second Round0.6% 0.6% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Florida (Home) - 78.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 36 - 46 - 9
Quad 412 - 318 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 4   @ Florida L 60-81 2%     0 - 1 +2.1 -0.9 +2.1
  Nov 11, 2024 163   @ Furman L 69-78 38%     0 - 2 -6.4 -6.4 +0.5
  Nov 14, 2024 249   South Carolina St. W 71-62 75%     1 - 2 +1.4 -6.0 +7.3
  Nov 20, 2024 121   @ Virginia Tech W 74-64 30%     2 - 2 +14.9 +4.0 +11.1
  Nov 25, 2024 222   Mercer L 89-90 OT 61%     2 - 3 -4.2 +5.6 -9.7
  Nov 26, 2024 261   Siena W 75-64 69%     3 - 3 +5.3 +1.6 +3.8
  Nov 30, 2024 36   @ Georgia L 56-102 9%     3 - 4 -31.3 -7.4 -23.8
  Dec 10, 2024 108   @ Florida Atlantic L 63-85 26%     3 - 5 -15.7 -13.9 -0.2
  Dec 14, 2024 154   East Tennessee St. W 60-52 55%     4 - 5 +6.2 -13.0 +19.3
  Dec 21, 2024 60   @ Central Florida L 66-86 13%     4 - 6 -8.2 -4.4 -3.2
  Jan 02, 2025 101   Lipscomb L 65-70 42%     4 - 7 0 - 1 -3.3 +1.6 -5.6
  Jan 04, 2025 293   Austin Peay W 68-44 81%     5 - 7 1 - 1 +14.1 -6.0 +20.6
  Jan 09, 2025 359   @ Bellarmine W 74-59 85%     6 - 7 2 - 1 +3.4 +3.5 +2.2
  Jan 11, 2025 231   @ Eastern Kentucky W 82-75 54%     7 - 7 3 - 1 +5.6 +4.8 +0.6
  Jan 16, 2025 164   North Alabama W 64-60 58%     8 - 7 4 - 1 +1.6 -11.3 +12.9
  Jan 18, 2025 337   Central Arkansas W 72-62 89%     9 - 7 5 - 1 -3.9 +0.9 -3.6
  Jan 23, 2025 340   @ West Georgia W 79-62 79%     10 - 7 6 - 1 +8.0 +5.0 +3.7
  Jan 25, 2025 220   @ Queens W 87-77 51%     11 - 7 7 - 1 +9.4 +7.1 +1.6
  Jan 29, 2025 167   Florida Gulf Coast L 79-83 58%     11 - 8 7 - 2 -6.6 +7.6 -14.4
  Feb 01, 2025 257   North Florida W 84-76 78%    
  Feb 06, 2025 330   @ Stetson W 77-69 75%    
  Feb 08, 2025 359   Bellarmine W 80-64 94%    
  Feb 13, 2025 337   @ Central Arkansas W 73-65 77%    
  Feb 15, 2025 164   @ North Alabama L 70-73 37%    
  Feb 18, 2025 167   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 67-70 38%    
  Feb 20, 2025 257   @ North Florida W 82-79 58%    
  Feb 24, 2025 231   Eastern Kentucky W 76-70 73%    
  Feb 26, 2025 330   Stetson W 80-67 89%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 3.7 16.3 13.9 3.3 37.3 1st
2nd 0.1 2.1 12.6 8.8 0.3 23.9 2nd
3rd 0.5 6.9 9.2 0.7 17.3 3rd
4th 0.2 3.3 7.5 1.7 12.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.3 3.8 1.4 0.0 6.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.2 0.5 0.0 2.0 6th
7th 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.5 2.9 8.2 18.0 27.3 25.8 14.1 3.3 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 3.3    3.3
15-3 98.1% 13.9    9.3 4.4 0.2
14-4 63.1% 16.3    4.3 7.6 3.9 0.5 0.0
13-5 13.7% 3.7    0.2 1.1 1.4 0.9 0.2
12-6 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 37.3% 37.3 17.0 13.1 5.5 1.4 0.3



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 3.3% 30.0% 30.0% 12.7 0.4 0.5 0.1 2.3
15-3 14.1% 21.7% 21.7% 13.8 0.0 1.0 1.6 0.4 11.1
14-4 25.8% 18.2% 18.2% 14.3 0.5 2.3 1.8 0.0 21.1
13-5 27.3% 13.7% 13.7% 14.7 0.1 1.1 2.2 0.3 23.5
12-6 18.0% 11.5% 11.5% 14.9 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.3 15.9
11-7 8.2% 7.8% 7.8% 15.1 0.1 0.5 0.1 7.5
10-8 2.9% 4.5% 4.5% 15.5 0.1 0.1 2.7
9-9 0.5% 0.5
8-10 0.0% 0.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 15.3% 15.3% 0.0% 14.3 0.4 2.2 5.6 6.3 0.8 84.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 12.7 38.4 50.5 11.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.0%