Florida Atlantic
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.1#105
Expected Predictive Rating+3.0#124
Pace72.8#63
Improvement-2.2#283

Offense
Total Offense+4.6#74
First Shot+4.9#60
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#206
Layup/Dunks+2.6#91
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#215
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#94
Freethrows+0.6#143
Improvement-0.9#229

Defense
Total Defense-0.5#187
First Shot-0.3#191
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#214
Layups/Dunks+4.8#42
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#280
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.9#338
Freethrows+0.9#119
Improvement-1.3#259
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.8% 9.4% 6.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.6 12.2 12.7
.500 or above 91.0% 99.0% 89.3%
.500 or above in Conference 96.0% 100.0% 95.2%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round6.8% 9.4% 6.2%
Second Round0.8% 1.1% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Memphis (Away) - 17.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 22 - 53 - 8
Quad 35 - 57 - 13
Quad 410 - 218 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 203   Indiana St. W 97-64 73%     1 - 0 +30.8 +6.2 +19.5
  Nov 12, 2024 81   @ Central Florida L 94-100 30%     1 - 1 +3.6 +12.7 -8.3
  Nov 15, 2024 143   @ College of Charleston L 116-119 2OT 52%     1 - 2 +0.6 +16.6 -15.3
  Nov 16, 2024 77   Liberty W 77-74 OT 37%     2 - 2 +10.4 +6.6 +3.7
  Nov 21, 2024 92   Oklahoma St. W 86-78 44%     3 - 2 +13.6 +2.3 +9.9
  Nov 22, 2024 74   Drake L 63-75 36%     3 - 3 -4.3 -2.5 -2.5
  Nov 24, 2024 167   Seton Hall L 61-63 67%     3 - 4 -2.4 -4.9 +2.4
  Nov 30, 2024 180   Florida Gulf Coast L 78-80 77%     3 - 5 -5.6 +8.7 -14.5
  Dec 04, 2024 268   @ Florida International W 88-77 75%     4 - 5 +8.0 +13.3 -5.8
  Dec 10, 2024 193   Jacksonville W 85-63 79%     5 - 5 +17.6 +6.2 +9.7
  Dec 14, 2024 202   Texas St. W 89-80 80%     6 - 5 +4.2 +11.9 -7.6
  Dec 21, 2024 12   @ Michigan St. L 69-86 7%     6 - 6 +3.8 +3.5 +1.3
  Jan 02, 2025 47   Memphis L 62-90 33%     6 - 7 0 - 1 -19.4 -8.4 -9.9
  Jan 05, 2025 150   @ East Carolina W 78-76 53%     7 - 7 1 - 1 +5.2 +2.2 +2.9
  Jan 08, 2025 235   @ Charlotte W 75-64 70%     8 - 7 2 - 1 +9.5 +3.6 +6.4
  Jan 12, 2025 104   UAB L 76-81 60%     8 - 8 2 - 2 -3.4 -0.6 -2.9
  Jan 15, 2025 144   @ Tulane L 65-80 52%     8 - 9 2 - 3 -11.4 -5.2 -6.4
  Jan 19, 2025 178   Rice W 75-73 76%     9 - 9 3 - 3 -1.5 +5.9 -7.2
  Jan 26, 2025 71   @ North Texas L 64-77 27%     9 - 10 3 - 4 -2.5 +8.7 -13.3
  Jan 29, 2025 208   Texas San Antonio W 94-74 81%     10 - 10 4 - 4 +14.9 +23.9 -7.7
  Feb 02, 2025 176   South Florida W 94-72 76%     11 - 10 5 - 4 +18.5 +18.5 -0.5
  Feb 08, 2025 246   @ Tulsa W 79-55 73%     12 - 10 6 - 4 +21.8 +10.3 +12.6
  Feb 10, 2025 235   Charlotte W 87-75 84%     13 - 10 7 - 4 +5.5 +8.1 -3.0
  Feb 16, 2025 155   @ Temple W 83-81 54%     14 - 10 8 - 4 +5.0 +8.2 -3.2
  Feb 20, 2025 115   Wichita St. L 68-75 64%     14 - 11 8 - 5 -6.7 +2.6 -10.0
  Feb 23, 2025 47   @ Memphis L 76-86 17%    
  Feb 27, 2025 71   North Texas L 67-68 46%    
  Mar 02, 2025 176   @ South Florida W 78-76 58%    
  Mar 06, 2025 104   @ UAB L 83-86 39%    
  Mar 09, 2025 150   East Carolina W 80-74 72%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 1.1 2.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.0 5.7 0.5 8.3 3rd
4th 0.1 4.9 15.3 4.8 0.0 25.1 4th
5th 0.0 5.7 25.7 11.4 0.6 43.4 5th
6th 1.1 9.9 3.4 14.4 6th
7th 2.1 3.2 0.1 5.4 7th
8th 0.8 0.2 0.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 4.0 19.0 34.1 28.7 12.5 1.7 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 3.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 1.7% 17.3% 17.3% 11.7 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.4
12-6 12.5% 12.9% 12.9% 12.2 0.1 1.1 0.4 0.0 10.9
11-7 28.7% 7.3% 7.3% 12.5 0.0 1.1 0.9 0.1 26.6
10-8 34.1% 5.8% 5.8% 12.8 0.0 0.7 0.9 0.4 32.2
9-9 19.0% 4.0% 4.0% 13.4 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 18.3
8-10 4.0% 0.8% 0.8% 13.3 0.0 0.0 4.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 6.8% 6.8% 0.0% 12.6 0.2 3.2 2.5 0.8 0.0 93.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 11.7 31.0 65.5 3.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6%
Lose Out 1.4%