Florida Atlantic
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+7.8#74
Expected Predictive Rating+4.4#108
Pace82.2#8
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.9#37
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.9#112
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.4% 0.7% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 1.8% 2.9% 0.7%
Top 6 Seed 4.0% 6.2% 1.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.3% 31.4% 17.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 10.7% 16.0% 6.1%
Average Seed 9.4 9.0 10.1
.500 or above 83.5% 91.2% 76.2%
.500 or above in Conference 81.7% 86.6% 77.0%
Conference Champion 18.0% 22.6% 13.6%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 0.7% 1.7%
First Four3.0% 4.0% 2.1%
First Round22.8% 29.5% 16.4%
Second Round10.4% 14.4% 6.4%
Sweet Sixteen3.8% 5.4% 2.2%
Elite Eight1.4% 2.0% 0.8%
Final Four0.5% 0.9% 0.2%
Championship Game0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: College of Charleston (Away) - 49.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 4
Quad 24 - 45 - 8
Quad 38 - 313 - 11
Quad 46 - 119 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 207   Indiana St. W 97-64 83%     1 - 0 +30.4 +7.5 +17.9
  Nov 12, 2024 66   @ Central Florida L 94-100 36%     1 - 1 +5.4 +15.9 -9.8
  Nov 15, 2024 100   @ College of Charleston L 90-91 49%    
  Nov 16, 2024 104   Liberty W 77-74 61%    
  Nov 21, 2024 87   Oklahoma St. W 82-81 55%    
  Nov 30, 2024 239   Florida Gulf Coast W 82-68 90%    
  Dec 04, 2024 267   @ Florida International W 91-81 82%    
  Dec 10, 2024 232   Jacksonville W 83-69 90%    
  Dec 14, 2024 146   Texas St. W 81-71 81%    
  Dec 21, 2024 27   @ Michigan St. L 76-84 24%    
  Jan 02, 2025 34   Memphis L 86-87 48%    
  Jan 05, 2025 154   @ East Carolina W 78-74 64%    
  Jan 08, 2025 133   @ Charlotte W 76-73 61%    
  Jan 12, 2025 101   UAB W 87-81 70%    
  Jan 15, 2025 145   @ Tulane W 90-86 63%    
  Jan 19, 2025 191   Rice W 83-70 86%    
  Jan 26, 2025 73   @ North Texas L 69-72 40%    
  Jan 29, 2025 238   Texas San Antonio W 93-79 89%    
  Feb 02, 2025 120   South Florida W 84-76 75%    
  Feb 08, 2025 142   @ Tulsa W 88-84 62%    
  Feb 10, 2025 133   Charlotte W 79-70 78%    
  Feb 16, 2025 112   @ Temple W 80-79 53%    
  Feb 20, 2025 86   Wichita St. W 84-80 63%    
  Feb 23, 2025 34   @ Memphis L 83-90 29%    
  Feb 27, 2025 73   North Texas W 72-69 60%    
  Mar 02, 2025 120   @ South Florida W 81-79 55%    
  Mar 06, 2025 101   @ UAB L 84-85 50%    
  Mar 09, 2025 154   East Carolina W 81-71 79%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.2 5.1 4.1 2.0 0.5 18.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.9 6.0 4.9 1.9 0.3 16.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.0 5.8 3.8 0.9 0.1 13.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.4 5.6 3.1 0.5 0.0 11.8 4th
5th 0.0 1.4 4.5 3.1 0.5 0.0 9.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 3.4 3.1 0.6 0.0 7.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.3 3.2 0.7 0.0 6.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 2.7 1.0 0.0 5.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 2.1 1.1 0.1 4.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.0 0.1 3.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 2.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.7 3.2 4.8 7.0 9.1 11.1 12.8 12.6 12.0 10.1 7.1 4.4 2.0 0.5 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 100.0% 2.0    2.0 0.1
16-2 93.2% 4.1    3.5 0.6 0.0
15-3 72.0% 5.1    3.2 1.7 0.2 0.0
14-4 41.9% 4.2    1.8 1.9 0.5 0.1
13-5 14.5% 1.7    0.4 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 18.0% 18.0 11.3 5.1 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 98.7% 62.8% 35.9% 3.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 96.6%
17-1 2.0% 91.4% 49.0% 42.4% 5.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 83.2%
16-2 4.4% 84.0% 39.7% 44.3% 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.7 73.4%
15-3 7.1% 67.2% 32.0% 35.3% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 2.3 51.8%
14-4 10.1% 47.1% 27.6% 19.5% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.9 0.6 0.0 5.3 26.9%
13-5 12.0% 30.4% 21.9% 8.5% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 0.8 0.0 8.4 10.8%
12-6 12.6% 18.3% 14.8% 3.4% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 10.3 4.0%
11-7 12.8% 10.9% 9.6% 1.3% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 11.4 1.4%
10-8 11.1% 6.2% 6.0% 0.2% 11.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.4 0.2%
9-9 9.1% 3.8% 3.8% 12.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.8
8-10 7.0% 3.0% 3.0% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.8
7-11 4.8% 1.9% 1.9% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.8
6-12 3.2% 1.1% 1.1% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2
5-13 1.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.7
4-14 0.9% 0.7% 0.7% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.9
3-15 0.4% 0.4
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 24.3% 15.2% 9.1% 9.4 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.7 2.4 3.4 6.9 3.9 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 75.7 10.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 2.0 36.0 32.0 28.0 4.0