Florida Atlantic
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.4#108
Expected Predictive Rating+2.6#124
Pace74.2#53
Improvement-5.6#355

Offense
Total Offense+3.6#86
First Shot+4.1#70
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#215
Layup/Dunks+2.2#101
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#223
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#104
Freethrows+0.4#149
Improvement-4.1#349

Defense
Total Defense-0.2#184
First Shot+0.0#181
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#207
Layups/Dunks+4.9#41
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#273
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.9#341
Freethrows+0.9#118
Improvement-1.6#270
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.3% 6.9% 3.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.5 12.2 12.7
.500 or above 64.6% 84.9% 58.6%
.500 or above in Conference 70.5% 88.8% 65.1%
Conference Champion 0.8% 2.4% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.0% 0.6%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round4.3% 6.9% 3.5%
Second Round0.6% 0.7% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Texas (Away) - 22.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 22 - 52 - 8
Quad 36 - 68 - 14
Quad 48 - 217 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 213   Indiana St. W 97-64 72%     1 - 0 +30.3 +5.6 +19.6
  Nov 12, 2024 71   @ Central Florida L 94-100 25%     1 - 1 +4.5 +14.2 -8.9
  Nov 15, 2024 127   @ College of Charleston L 116-119 2OT 44%     1 - 2 +2.1 +17.4 -14.6
  Nov 16, 2024 92   Liberty W 77-74 OT 40%     2 - 2 +9.1 +5.5 +3.5
  Nov 21, 2024 101   Oklahoma St. W 86-78 46%     3 - 2 +12.6 +2.2 +9.0
  Nov 22, 2024 80   Drake L 63-75 36%     3 - 3 -4.9 -1.7 -3.9
  Nov 24, 2024 132   Seton Hall L 61-63 56%     3 - 4 -0.2 -5.3 +5.0
  Nov 30, 2024 168   Florida Gulf Coast L 78-80 73%     3 - 5 -5.1 +10.5 -15.8
  Dec 04, 2024 241   @ Florida International W 88-77 69%     4 - 5 +9.4 +13.6 -4.7
  Dec 10, 2024 185   Jacksonville W 85-63 75%     5 - 5 +18.2 +7.0 +9.6
  Dec 14, 2024 167   Texas St. W 89-80 73%     6 - 5 +6.0 +12.7 -6.7
  Dec 21, 2024 12   @ Michigan St. L 69-86 7%     6 - 6 +2.9 +2.4 +1.4
  Jan 02, 2025 43   Memphis L 62-90 30%     6 - 7 0 - 1 -19.2 -9.0 -9.1
  Jan 05, 2025 164   @ East Carolina W 78-76 52%     7 - 7 1 - 1 +4.9 +3.3 +1.4
  Jan 08, 2025 224   @ Charlotte W 75-64 66%     8 - 7 2 - 1 +10.1 +4.0 +6.5
  Jan 12, 2025 97   UAB L 76-81 54%     8 - 8 2 - 2 -2.5 +1.5 -4.1
  Jan 15, 2025 148   @ Tulane L 65-80 48%     8 - 9 2 - 3 -11.1 -5.1 -6.2
  Jan 19, 2025 192   Rice W 75-73 76%     9 - 9 3 - 3 -2.1 +7.4 -9.3
  Jan 26, 2025 65   @ North Texas L 65-73 23%    
  Jan 29, 2025 229   Texas San Antonio W 88-78 83%    
  Feb 02, 2025 154   South Florida W 81-75 72%    
  Feb 08, 2025 251   @ Tulsa W 79-73 69%    
  Feb 10, 2025 224   Charlotte W 79-69 82%    
  Feb 16, 2025 110   @ Temple L 79-82 40%    
  Feb 20, 2025 138   Wichita St. W 83-78 67%    
  Feb 23, 2025 43   @ Memphis L 76-87 16%    
  Feb 27, 2025 65   North Texas L 68-70 43%    
  Mar 02, 2025 154   @ South Florida W 79-78 50%    
  Mar 06, 2025 97   @ UAB L 81-86 33%    
  Mar 09, 2025 164   East Carolina W 78-72 72%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.8 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 1.6 0.5 3.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.0 4.5 1.5 0.0 9.4 3rd
4th 0.4 4.3 7.4 2.6 0.1 14.8 4th
5th 0.2 4.0 9.3 4.7 0.5 18.7 5th
6th 0.0 2.5 8.8 5.9 0.8 0.0 18.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 7.2 6.0 0.8 14.8 7th
8th 0.2 2.8 4.7 1.2 0.0 8.9 8th
9th 0.1 1.2 3.5 1.3 0.1 6.0 9th
10th 0.3 1.4 1.0 0.1 2.8 10th
11th 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.1 1.5 11th
12th 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.7 8.4 15.9 20.4 20.6 16.1 8.9 3.6 0.9 0.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.1    0.0 0.1
14-4 39.8% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.0
13-5 8.2% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.1% 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.9% 20.5% 20.5% 11.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.7
13-5 3.6% 13.0% 13.0% 11.9 0.1 0.3 0.0 3.1
12-6 8.9% 10.0% 10.0% 12.1 0.1 0.6 0.2 8.0
11-7 16.1% 6.5% 6.5% 12.4 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 15.0
10-8 20.6% 4.5% 4.5% 12.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 19.7
9-9 20.4% 1.7% 1.7% 13.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 20.0
8-10 15.9% 1.8% 1.8% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 15.6
7-11 8.4% 0.8% 0.8% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.3
6-12 3.7% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 3.6
5-13 1.2% 1.2
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 12.5 0.3 2.2 1.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 95.7 0.0%