Florida Atlantic
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.6#84
Expected Predictive Rating+3.6#114
Pace76.7#26
Improvement-0.7#239

Offense
Total Offense+6.2#41
First Shot+7.4#26
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#255
Layup/Dunks+2.8#92
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#209
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#69
Freethrows+1.6#90
Improvement+0.8#118

Defense
Total Defense+0.4#155
First Shot+0.3#165
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#178
Layups/Dunks+5.6#34
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#242
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.6#337
Freethrows-0.2#204
Improvement-1.5#296
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.0% 19.2% 13.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.7% 2.7% 0.4%
Average Seed 11.5 11.0 11.6
.500 or above 88.0% 96.1% 86.8%
.500 or above in Conference 89.3% 93.5% 88.6%
Conference Champion 14.1% 19.6% 13.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.1% 0.5%
First Four0.4% 1.4% 0.3%
First Round13.8% 18.6% 13.0%
Second Round3.6% 5.7% 3.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 1.4% 0.8%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Michigan St. (Away) - 13.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 3
Quad 23 - 44 - 7
Quad 38 - 412 - 12
Quad 47 - 119 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 168   Indiana St. W 97-64 75%     1 - 0 +32.4 +6.2 +21.1
  Nov 12, 2024 82   @ Central Florida L 94-100 38%     1 - 1 +3.7 +15.3 -11.0
  Nov 15, 2024 122   @ College of Charleston L 116-119 2OT 54%     1 - 2 +2.5 +17.2 -13.9
  Nov 16, 2024 77   Liberty W 77-74 OT 48%     2 - 2 +10.1 +5.5 +4.5
  Nov 21, 2024 85   Oklahoma St. W 86-78 51%     3 - 2 +14.4 +1.7 +11.3
  Nov 22, 2024 70   Drake L 63-75 45%     3 - 3 -4.1 -0.5 -4.4
  Nov 24, 2024 117   Seton Hall L 61-63 64%     3 - 4 +1.0 -1.5 +2.3
  Nov 30, 2024 180   Florida Gulf Coast L 78-80 84%     3 - 5 -6.0 +10.1 -16.3
  Dec 04, 2024 242   @ Florida International W 88-77 78%     4 - 5 +9.5 +13.2 -4.1
  Dec 10, 2024 204   Jacksonville W 85-63 86%     5 - 5 +16.9 +6.2 +9.1
  Dec 14, 2024 138   Texas St. W 89-80 79%     6 - 5 +7.2 +14.8 -7.6
  Dec 21, 2024 14   @ Michigan St. L 72-84 13%    
  Jan 02, 2025 34   Memphis L 84-87 40%    
  Jan 05, 2025 164   @ East Carolina W 77-73 65%    
  Jan 08, 2025 170   @ Charlotte W 77-73 65%    
  Jan 12, 2025 137   UAB W 89-81 78%    
  Jan 15, 2025 203   @ Tulane W 82-76 70%    
  Jan 19, 2025 197   Rice W 82-71 85%    
  Jan 26, 2025 72   @ North Texas L 67-71 36%    
  Jan 29, 2025 234   Texas San Antonio W 91-78 89%    
  Feb 02, 2025 145   South Florida W 84-75 79%    
  Feb 08, 2025 247   @ Tulsa W 84-76 78%    
  Feb 10, 2025 170   Charlotte W 80-70 82%    
  Feb 16, 2025 118   @ Temple W 80-79 53%    
  Feb 20, 2025 100   Wichita St. W 84-79 66%    
  Feb 23, 2025 34   @ Memphis L 81-90 22%    
  Feb 27, 2025 72   North Texas W 70-68 57%    
  Mar 02, 2025 145   @ South Florida W 81-78 60%    
  Mar 06, 2025 137   @ UAB W 86-84 58%    
  Mar 09, 2025 164   East Carolina W 80-70 82%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.5 4.7 3.2 1.2 0.2 14.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.6 7.5 6.3 2.6 0.3 20.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 4.3 8.0 5.5 1.3 0.1 20.0 3rd
4th 0.4 3.4 6.6 3.7 0.7 0.0 14.8 4th
5th 0.1 2.1 5.1 2.8 0.4 0.0 10.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 3.4 2.4 0.3 0.0 7.0 6th
7th 0.2 2.0 2.1 0.4 0.0 4.8 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 1.7 0.5 0.0 3.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.6 0.0 2.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.1 1.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.9 5.4 8.5 12.0 14.6 16.0 14.9 11.1 7.4 3.5 1.2 0.2 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 1.2    1.1 0.1
16-2 90.2% 3.2    2.5 0.6 0.0
15-3 63.5% 4.7    2.7 1.7 0.2 0.0
14-4 31.5% 3.5    1.3 1.7 0.5 0.0
13-5 8.7% 1.3    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.1% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 14.1% 14.1 8.0 4.7 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 71.6% 38.3% 33.3% 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 54.0%
17-1 1.2% 53.2% 36.4% 16.8% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 26.4%
16-2 3.5% 36.3% 30.6% 5.7% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 2.2 8.3%
15-3 7.4% 28.3% 26.4% 1.8% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.4 0.5 0.0 5.3 2.5%
14-4 11.1% 22.0% 21.6% 0.4% 11.5 0.1 1.2 1.1 0.0 8.7 0.5%
13-5 14.9% 17.3% 17.2% 0.1% 11.7 0.0 0.8 1.6 0.1 0.0 12.3 0.1%
12-6 16.0% 13.2% 13.2% 11.9 0.4 1.5 0.2 0.0 13.9
11-7 14.6% 9.2% 9.2% 12.0 0.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 13.3
10-8 12.0% 6.4% 6.4% 12.2 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 11.3
9-9 8.5% 4.5% 4.5% 12.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 8.1
8-10 5.4% 3.4% 3.4% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.2
7-11 2.9% 2.7% 2.7% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.9
6-12 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 15.5 0.0 0.0 1.5
5-13 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.6
4-14 0.2% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 14.0% 13.4% 0.6% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 5.0 6.7 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 86.0 0.7%