Florida Atlantic
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +5.5 #95
Expected Predictive Rating +6.1 #88
Pace 74.6 #47
Improvement +2.3 #78

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #113 B B+ C- C B-
Defense #90 C+ A- C+ C- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #133 1.19 #140 +1.7 #118
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #239 1.02 #5 +1.0 #119
Three Pointers 42% #151 1.01 #190 +0.6 #158
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #88 +3.3 #88
Freethrows 18.1 #163 72% #203 13.0 #162
Second Chance 32.8% #119 1.19 #34 0.39 #58
Turnovers 17.4% #247
Total Offense +2.4 #113

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #41 1.04 #46 -0.7 #205
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #274 0.67 #59 +1.8 #58
Three Pointers 38% #270 1.07 #259 +0.5 #157
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #129 +1.5 #129
Freethrows 18.6 #231 73% #208 13.5 #234
Second Chance 26.3% #41 0.95 #61 0.25 #33
Turnovers 17.4% #118
Total Defense +3.1 #90

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.1% #114 1.6% #314
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.3% #93 -4.4% #92
Possession Length 15.5 #36 17.6 #232
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #56 0.16 #126
Improvement -2.6 #317 +4.9 #11

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.3% 17.5% 12.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.9 11.7 12.0
.500 or above 99.6% 100.0% 99.4%
.500 or above in Conference 99.5% 100.0% 99.3%
Conference Champion 39.7% 60.7% 30.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round14.3% 17.4% 12.9%
Second Round2.2% 2.9% 1.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.5% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Florida (Away) - 30.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 23 - 53 - 7
Quad 310 - 313 - 10
Quad 47 - 120 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 134 Boston College W 83 - 78 OT 75% +2  1 - 0 +4 +3 A F C +0 B- F B
 Sat, Nov 8 164 College of Charleston W 94 - 77 71% +15  2 - 0 +17 +24 B A+ A- -7 C A+ D-
 Sun, Nov 9 94 @Liberty L 68 - 88 38% -15  2 - 1 -11 -1 F A+ D+ -11 F C+ C
 Thu, Nov 20 132 Pacific W 82 - 59 74% +11  3 - 1 +22 +14 A+ F F +9 B+ A+ A
 Mon, Nov 24 155 Loyola Marymount W 76 - 65 70% +7  4 - 1 +11 +13 A+ B- F -1 B A+ D-
 Tue, Nov 25 86 George Mason L 65 - 74 44% -11  4 - 2 -2 +7 B+ D- C- -10 F A- F
 Sun, Nov 30 136 St. Bonaventure L 65 - 70 75% -2  4 - 3 -6 -5 F B+ F -1 F A+ B+
 Sun, Dec 7 225 @Florida Gulf Coast W 81 - 76 73% -0  5 - 3 +4 +6 F C D -2 C B- A+
 Sat, Dec 13 305 Albany W 105 - 79 93% +20  6 - 3 +15 +12 A+ F D- -1 D A+ C-
 Fri, Dec 19 42 @St. Mary's L 75 - 88 18% -10  6 - 4 +2 +4 D+ A F -1 B- B+ B-
 Tue, Dec 23 53 Central Florida L 80 - 85 31% +1  6 - 5 +6 +5 C A+ B- +1 C+ A C
 Wed, Dec 31 345 Texas San Antonio W 110 - 70 96% +27  7 - 5 1 - 0 +25 +17 A+ B+ F +3 A- B C+
 Sun, Jan 4 172 @Tulane L 66 - 69 63% +1  7 - 6 1 - 1 -1 -6 F B F +5 B D+ B
 Wed, Jan 7 117 @UAB W 76 - 71 49% +7  8 - 6 2 - 1 +11 +2 F B+ C +9 A+ B A+
 Sun, Jan 11 92 Memphis W 89 - 78 60% +8  9 - 6 3 - 1 +14 +12 A+ A+ C +1 C- A+ D+
 Thu, Jan 15 103 Wichita St. W 85 - 67 65% +15  10 - 6 4 - 1 +20 +13 A+ F D+ +7 A+ A+ B+
 Sun, Jan 18 140 @Temple W 79 - 73 55% -2  11 - 6 5 - 1 +10 -1 F A+ C +11 A+ C+ A+
 Wed, Jan 21 172 Tulane W 79 - 74 82% +6  12 - 6 6 - 1 +1 +3 A- F B+ -2 B- F A
 Sun, Jan 25 74 @South Florida L 80 - 85 31%
 Thu, Jan 29 92 @Memphis L 74 - 77 38%
 Sun, Feb 1 267 East Carolina W 82 - 68 91%
 Wed, Feb 4 70 Tulsa W 81 - 80 52%
 Wed, Feb 11 239 @Rice W 78 - 71 74%
 Sun, Feb 15 74 South Florida W 83 - 82 53%
 Wed, Feb 18 345 @Texas San Antonio W 85 - 71 91%
 Sun, Feb 22 127 @North Texas W 69 - 68 52%
 Wed, Feb 25 140 Temple W 79 - 72 75%
 Sun, Mar 1 173 Charlotte W 80 - 70 82%
 Sat, Mar 7 103 @Wichita St. L 74 - 76 43%
Totals 19 - 10 13 - 5 +6 +2 B B+ C- +3 C+ A- C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.7 8.0 15.2 11.0 4.1 0.7 39.7 1st
2nd 0.3 6.1 11.6 3.8 0.2 22.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.4 9.5 3.5 0.1 15.5 3rd
4th 0.6 5.5 3.7 0.2 9.9 4th
5th 0.1 2.0 3.6 0.3 6.0 5th
6th 0.4 2.5 0.7 3.6 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 0.9 0.0 1.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.1 0.4 2.0 6.1 12.6 20.4 23.3 19.2 11.2 4.1 0.7 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.7    0.7
16-2 100.0% 4.1    4.0 0.1
15-3 97.9% 11.0    9.4 1.6 0.0
14-4 79.3% 15.2    7.9 6.2 1.1 0.0
13-5 34.5% 8.0    1.4 3.4 2.5 0.6 0.1
12-6 3.7% 0.7    0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 39.7% 39.7 23.3 11.4 3.9 0.9 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.7% 35.9% 35.1% 0.8% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.4 1.2%
16-2 4.1% 24.3% 24.0% 0.2% 11.3 0.0 0.7 0.3 3.1 0.3%
15-3 11.2% 22.7% 22.6% 0.0% 11.7 0.0 0.9 1.5 0.1 8.7 0.1%
14-4 19.2% 19.0% 19.0% 11.8 0.8 2.6 0.2 15.5
13-5 23.3% 14.9% 14.9% 12.0 0.4 2.6 0.5 0.0 19.8
12-6 20.4% 11.0% 11.0% 12.2 0.2 1.5 0.6 0.0 18.1
11-7 12.6% 6.9% 6.9% 12.3 0.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 11.7
10-8 6.1% 4.1% 4.1% 12.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.9
9-9 2.0% 3.5% 3.5% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0
8-10 0.4% 2.5% 2.5% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
7-11 0.1% 0.1
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 14.3% 14.3% 0.0% 11.9 85.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 10.7 13.0 10.9 73.9 2.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 3.8% 11.0 3.8