Charlotte
American Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.7#224
Expected Predictive Rating-5.8#263
Pace62.8#330
Improvement-2.8#307

Offense
Total Offense-1.2#207
First Shot-1.4#215
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#167
Layup/Dunks+2.0#109
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#321
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.2#330
Freethrows+4.5#4
Improvement-4.3#353

Defense
Total Defense-2.5#251
First Shot+0.9#147
After Offensive Rebounds-3.4#356
Layups/Dunks-3.9#314
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#24
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#101
Freethrows+0.7#133
Improvement+1.6#97
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.8 15.6
.500 or above 0.6% 1.0% 0.2%
.500 or above in Conference 0.7% 1.2% 0.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 64.2% 49.9% 75.8%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Florida (Home) - 44.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 33 - 103 - 17
Quad 47 - 411 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 273   Presbyterian W 88-79 70%     1 - 0 -0.1 +22.3 -21.2
  Nov 09, 2024 54   @ Utah St. L 74-103 7%     1 - 1 -16.0 +6.3 -22.4
  Nov 13, 2024 209   Richmond W 65-48 56%     2 - 1 +11.8 -2.6 +16.0
  Nov 19, 2024 239   Gardner-Webb W 60-54 63%     3 - 1 -1.1 -11.1 +10.5
  Nov 23, 2024 314   LIU Brooklyn L 76-79 77%     3 - 2 -14.4 +3.8 -18.4
  Nov 27, 2024 146   East Tennessee St. L 55-75 42%     3 - 3 -21.6 -15.5 -7.3
  Dec 10, 2024 121   @ Davidson L 71-75 20%     3 - 4 +1.4 +16.7 -16.3
  Dec 14, 2024 280   @ Georgia St. W 77-63 52%     4 - 4 +9.8 +0.6 +9.0
  Dec 17, 2024 349   West Georgia W 75-70 86%     5 - 4 -10.3 +0.6 -10.4
  Dec 22, 2024 181   @ Hawaii L 61-78 30%     5 - 5 -15.1 -6.5 -9.8
  Dec 23, 2024 142   Murray St. W 94-90 2OT 31%     6 - 5 +5.5 +9.8 -4.9
  Dec 25, 2024 127   College of Charleston L 81-84 28%     6 - 6 -0.7 +5.6 -6.1
  Dec 31, 2024 148   Tulane L 68-83 42%     6 - 7 0 - 1 -16.6 -10.9 -4.6
  Jan 04, 2025 192   @ Rice L 55-68 31%     6 - 8 0 - 2 -11.6 -5.0 -9.5
  Jan 08, 2025 108   Florida Atlantic L 64-75 34%     6 - 9 0 - 3 -10.3 -7.9 -2.9
  Jan 12, 2025 251   @ Tulsa L 63-69 45%     6 - 10 0 - 4 -8.3 +0.6 -9.8
  Jan 14, 2025 138   @ Wichita St. L 59-68 22%     6 - 11 0 - 5 -4.6 -8.3 +3.1
  Jan 19, 2025 43   Memphis L 68-77 13%     6 - 12 0 - 6 -0.2 -2.3 +2.4
  Jan 22, 2025 154   South Florida L 70-72 45%    
  Jan 29, 2025 110   @ Temple L 67-77 18%    
  Feb 01, 2025 97   @ UAB L 69-81 14%    
  Feb 04, 2025 138   Wichita St. L 71-74 42%    
  Feb 08, 2025 192   Rice W 68-67 52%    
  Feb 10, 2025 108   @ Florida Atlantic L 69-79 18%    
  Feb 15, 2025 164   East Carolina L 67-68 47%    
  Feb 19, 2025 110   Temple L 70-74 36%    
  Feb 26, 2025 148   @ Tulane L 66-74 24%    
  Mar 02, 2025 164   @ East Carolina L 64-71 26%    
  Mar 06, 2025 65   @ North Texas L 55-70 8%    
  Mar 09, 2025 229   Texas San Antonio W 77-74 62%    
Projected Record 10 - 20 4 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.1 1.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.7 0.5 0.0 2.7 8th
9th 0.3 2.6 1.9 0.1 5.0 9th
10th 0.2 2.6 4.7 0.7 8.2 10th
11th 0.2 3.2 7.3 2.6 0.1 13.4 11th
12th 0.7 4.8 10.7 6.0 0.5 0.0 22.8 12th
13th 1.4 5.8 14.1 15.5 7.7 1.2 0.0 45.8 13th
Total 1.4 5.8 14.9 20.5 21.8 17.4 10.9 4.9 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0% 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.1
9-9 0.6% 3.6% 3.6% 15.0 0.0 0.5
8-10 1.7% 1.7
7-11 4.9% 0.2% 0.2% 15.0 0.0 4.9
6-12 10.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 10.9
5-13 17.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 17.4
4-14 21.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 21.8
3-15 20.5% 20.5
2-16 14.9% 14.9
1-17 5.8% 5.8
0-18 1.4% 1.4
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.8%