Charlotte
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.1 #173
Expected Predictive Rating -1.0 #183
Pace 61.7 #349
Improvement -0.4 #209

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #122 B C C C B+
Defense #264 C- C D C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #148 1.25 #88 +2.4 #98
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #325 0.73 #214 -3.1 #325
Three Pointers 48% #50 1.05 #129 +4.4 #45
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #79 +3.6 #79
Freethrows 18.3 #154 73% #155 13.4 #179
Second Chance 33.1% #115 0.96 #284 0.32 #179
Turnovers 17.0% #217
Total Offense +1.8 #122

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #154 1.17 #189 -0.9 #207
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #214 0.74 #149 +0.6 #147
Three Pointers 41% #178 1.07 #261 -1.3 #240
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #227 -1.5 #228
Freethrows 18.8 #245 69% #53 13.0 #198
Second Chance 30.9% #199 1.07 #217 0.33 #212
Turnovers 14.5% #299
Total Defense -2.9 #264

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.1% #51 0.5% #214
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 4.8% #101 2.4% #224
Possession Length 19.0 #331 18.4 #321
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #262 0.17 #174
Improvement +0.1 #170 -0.5 #219

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.3% 1.6% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.5 14.3
.500 or above 32.6% 42.6% 17.0%
.500 or above in Conference 63.8% 75.9% 44.9%
Conference Champion 1.1% 1.6% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round1.3% 1.6% 0.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tulane (Home) - 60.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 61 - 8
Quad 34 - 75 - 16
Quad 410 - 115 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 188 Indiana St. W 92 - 76 64% +9  1 - 0 +11 +18 A+ A+ A -7 C D+ D-
 Fri, Nov 7 342 Tennessee Tech W 70 - 65 89% +9  2 - 0 -10 -5 C+ A+ F -5 D- F A+
 Tue, Nov 11 137 Davidson L 55 - 62 52% -10  2 - 1 -8 -6 F D- C+ -4 D A+ A-
 Sun, Nov 16 58 @Virginia Tech L 76 - 84 10% -8  2 - 2 +5 +14 B A- A+ -9 A+ D+ F
 Fri, Nov 21 206 @Appalachian St. L 63 - 65 45% +2  2 - 3 -2 +6 D- A- F -8 D- C- C-
 Thu, Nov 27 90 Illinois St. L 69 - 79 24% -10  2 - 4 -4 +4 A+ F F -8 C- C- F
 Fri, Nov 28 120 Richmond L 66 - 71 36% -8  2 - 5 -2 -2 C F A- -1 C C B-
 Tue, Dec 2 304 N.C. A&T W 74 - 57 83% +13  3 - 5 +6 +0 A+ B+ F +7 A+ B+ B+
 Sun, Dec 7 39 Utah St. L 53 - 79 15% -11  3 - 6 -16 -13 F A+ F -6 B- A+ F
 Sun, Dec 14 164 @College of Charleston L 67 - 74 36% -4  3 - 7 -4 -3 C F F -1 D- D+ C+
 Thu, Dec 18 314 Lafayette W 81 - 67 85% +11  4 - 7 +2 +18 A+ C- B- -14 D- F D+
 Sun, Dec 21 151 Illinois-Chicago W 88 - 76 OT 55% -9  5 - 7 +10 +14 B- F B -5 F A+ C+
 Tue, Dec 30 140 Temple L 73 - 76 53% -8  5 - 8 0 - 1 -5 +1 C C- D -6 F C+ C+
 Sat, Jan 3 103 Wichita St. W 104 - 100 2OT 40% -10  6 - 8 1 - 1 +6 +25 A- A+ A+ -20 F F C
 Wed, Jan 7 345 @Texas San Antonio W 74 - 58 77% +9  7 - 8 2 - 1 +7 +4 D+ C D +4 C+ C F
 Sun, Jan 11 239 @Rice W 74 - 73 51% +3  8 - 8 3 - 1 -0 +6 A+ F F -6 C B D+
 Wed, Jan 14 70 Tulsa L 74 - 86 28% -10  8 - 9 3 - 2 -7 +3 A- F A -11 F A+ A
 Sun, Jan 18 267 @East Carolina W 73 - 70 57% +7  9 - 9 4 - 2 +0 +6 A+ C F -6 C- C F
 Fri, Jan 23 172 Tulane W 73 - 70 61%
 Wed, Jan 28 140 @Temple L 69 - 74 31%
 Sat, Jan 31 239 Rice W 74 - 68 73%
 Wed, Feb 4 103 @Wichita St. L 66 - 75 20%
 Sun, Feb 8 92 @Memphis L 66 - 76 18%
 Sun, Feb 15 345 Texas San Antonio W 80 - 66 90%
 Wed, Feb 18 70 @Tulsa L 70 - 82 13%
 Sat, Feb 21 267 East Carolina W 75 - 67 77%
 Wed, Feb 25 127 North Texas L 64 - 65 49%
 Sun, Mar 1 95 @Florida Atlantic L 70 - 80 18%
 Wed, Mar 4 117 UAB L 74 - 75 47%
 Sun, Mar 8 74 @South Florida L 71 - 83 14%
Totals 14 - 16 9 - 9 -1 +2 B C C -3 C- C D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.1 1st
2nd 0.2 1.5 0.9 0.1 2.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 2.5 0.3 4.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 5.1 1.2 0.0 7.5 4th
5th 0.4 5.5 4.2 0.2 10.1 5th
6th 0.1 3.6 8.4 1.1 0.0 13.2 6th
7th 0.0 1.6 9.6 4.3 0.1 15.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 7.3 8.5 0.6 17.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 5.1 8.8 1.8 0.0 16.2 9th
10th 0.2 2.2 4.6 1.7 0.1 8.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 1.3 0.7 0.0 2.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.1 1.0 4.2 11.4 19.6 23.8 20.1 12.2 5.5 1.7 0.5 0.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0
14-4 76.8% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0
13-5 29.3% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1
12-6 2.7% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.1% 1.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.5% 9.5% 9.5% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.4
13-5 1.7% 4.5% 4.5% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6
12-6 5.5% 4.3% 4.3% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.3
11-7 12.2% 3.1% 3.1% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 11.8
10-8 20.1% 1.4% 1.4% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 19.8
9-9 23.8% 0.7% 0.7% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 23.7
8-10 19.6% 0.2% 0.2% 15.4 0.0 0.0 19.6
7-11 11.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 11.4
6-12 4.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 4.1
5-13 1.0% 1.0
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 13.7 98.7 0.0%