Lafayette
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.8#327
Expected Predictive Rating-12.9#335
Pace68.0#220
Improvement+2.7#34

Offense
Total Offense-6.1#330
First Shot-4.7#302
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#263
Layup/Dunks-3.1#288
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#225
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#198
Freethrows-0.1#186
Improvement-0.4#213

Defense
Total Defense-3.8#300
First Shot-0.4#183
After Offensive Rebounds-3.4#341
Layups/Dunks-2.9#293
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#303
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#110
Freethrows+2.6#49
Improvement+3.1#8
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.7% 4.0% 2.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 3.8% 8.8% 2.4%
.500 or above in Conference 28.0% 36.0% 25.7%
Conference Champion 1.8% 2.8% 1.4%
Last Place in Conference 23.6% 17.7% 25.3%
First Four2.4% 3.4% 2.1%
First Round1.4% 2.2% 1.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Penn (Away) - 22.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 61 - 9
Quad 49 - 1310 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 178 @Saint Joseph's L 76-85 14%     0 - 1 -7.4 +4.9 -12.2
  Sat, Nov 8 46 @Texas L 60-97 2%     0 - 2 -23.1 -7.6 -16.1
  Thu, Nov 13 150 Cornell L 78-97 25%     0 - 3 -21.8 -5.5 -15.0
  Mon, Nov 17 71 @West Virginia L 59-81 4%     0 - 4 -11.0 -4.0 -7.9
  Fri, Nov 21 339 @Stonehill L 70-74 44%     0 - 5 -12.2 -5.9 -6.3
  Fri, Nov 28 306 Le Moyne L 63-76 55%     0 - 6 -24.1 -18.0 -6.3
  Sat, Nov 29 310 Ball St. W 55-37 56%     1 - 6 +6.7 -14.9 +24.0
  Sun, Nov 30 207 Monmouth L 74-88 35%     1 - 7 -19.8 -2.4 -17.3
  Fri, Dec 5 324 Mercyhurst W 79-71 60%     2 - 7 -4.5 +8.8 -12.5
  Mon, Dec 8 248 @Penn L 71-79 22%    
  Thu, Dec 18 181 @Charlotte L 63-74 15%    
  Sat, Dec 20 135 @Georgia Tech L 63-78 9%    
  Wed, Dec 31 179 Colgate L 69-74 31%    
  Sat, Jan 3 321 @Loyola Maryland L 70-74 37%    
  Wed, Jan 7 253 Boston University L 69-71 44%    
  Sat, Jan 10 197 @Navy L 64-75 17%    
  Wed, Jan 14 316 @Bucknell L 69-73 35%    
  Sat, Jan 17 286 Holy Cross W 70-69 51%    
  Wed, Jan 21 253 @Boston University L 66-74 25%    
  Sat, Jan 24 307 @Lehigh L 68-73 33%    
  Mon, Jan 26 316 Bucknell W 72-70 56%    
  Sat, Jan 31 242 @American L 69-77 22%    
  Wed, Feb 4 197 Navy L 67-72 34%    
  Sat, Feb 7 340 @Army L 71-73 45%    
  Wed, Feb 11 321 Loyola Maryland W 73-71 58%    
  Sat, Feb 14 307 Lehigh W 71-70 54%    
  Wed, Feb 18 286 @Holy Cross L 67-73 31%    
  Sat, Feb 21 242 American L 72-74 42%    
  Wed, Feb 25 179 @Colgate L 66-77 16%    
  Sat, Feb 28 340 Army W 74-70 65%    
Projected Record 9 - 21 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 3.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.9 2.4 0.9 0.1 0.0 5.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.6 3.5 1.2 0.1 0.0 7.8 4th
5th 0.3 3.0 5.0 1.5 0.1 0.0 9.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.9 5.9 2.6 0.2 0.0 11.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.9 6.8 3.2 0.2 13.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.3 6.6 3.9 0.4 0.0 14.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.2 4.1 6.1 3.6 0.6 0.0 15.7 9th
10th 0.2 1.0 2.6 4.7 4.4 2.2 0.3 0.0 15.4 10th
Total 0.2 1.0 2.7 5.9 9.0 12.0 13.8 14.5 12.8 10.7 7.3 4.9 2.8 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 94.3% 0.2    0.1 0.0
14-4 67.0% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 42.5% 0.6    0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
12-6 12.6% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 2.4% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.8% 1.8 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.2% 17.0% 17.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.6% 14.9% 14.9% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.6
13-5 1.4% 13.0% 13.0% 15.9 0.0 0.2 1.2
12-6 2.8% 11.5% 11.5% 15.9 0.0 0.3 2.5
11-7 4.9% 7.8% 7.8% 16.0 0.0 0.4 4.5
10-8 7.3% 5.7% 5.7% 16.0 0.4 6.8
9-9 10.7% 4.6% 4.6% 16.0 0.5 10.2
8-10 12.8% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.3 12.5
7-11 14.5% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 14.3
6-12 13.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 13.7
5-13 12.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 11.9
4-14 9.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 9.0
3-15 5.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 5.9
2-16 2.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.7
1-17 1.0% 1.0
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 2.6 97.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%