Lafayette
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -9.3 #314
Expected Predictive Rating -12.4 #339
Pace 67.8 #218
Improvement +1.1 #125

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #313 D D- C D B-
Defense #290 D+ D F C+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #108 1.04 #312 -0.9 #216
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #241 0.57 #355 -2.9 #314
Three Pointers 42% #169 0.98 #236 -0.4 #194
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #295 -4.2 #295
Freethrows 16.0 #274 70% #260 11.2 #283
Second Chance 24.9% #325 1.01 #225 0.25 #313
Turnovers 16.5% #172
Total Offense -5.5 #313

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #156 1.19 #233 -1.4 #227
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #89 0.79 #227 -1.5 #297
Three Pointers 37% #289 1.11 #296 +0.4 #158
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #258 -2.4 #259
Freethrows 16.4 #114 77% #347 12.6 #119
Second Chance 31.5% #225 1.16 #318 0.37 #294
Turnovers 13.6% #332
Total Defense -3.8 #290

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.2% #107 -0.6% #117
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -9.3% #327 5.3% #274
Possession Length 17.9 #234 16.7 #80
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 #355 0.18 #225
Improvement -1.3 #256 +2.4 #50

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.7% 3.8% 2.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 18.2% 32.0% 10.6%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 25.1% 13.0% 31.7%
First Four2.6% 3.6% 2.1%
First Round1.3% 1.9% 1.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lehigh (Away) - 35.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 60 - 9
Quad 49 - 1310 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 159 @Saint Joseph's L 76 - 85 13% -6  0 - 1 -6 +7 C- B B -13 C+ F F
 Sat, Nov 8 38 @Texas L 60 - 97 2% -18  0 - 2 -21 -7 F B+ F -14 C F C-
 Thu, Nov 13 187 Cornell L 78 - 97 33% -7  0 - 3 -24 -9 F D- B+ -14 C F D-
 Mon, Nov 17 52 @West Virginia L 59 - 81 3% -11  0 - 4 -8 -3 B+ D- F -6 D D C
 Fri, Nov 21 339 @Stonehill L 70 - 74 46% -4  0 - 5 -12 -4 F D- F -8 F B C
 Fri, Nov 28 278 Le Moyne L 63 - 76 51% -1  0 - 6 -23 -14 F F F -9 C F C-
 Sat, Nov 29 296 Ball St. W 55 - 37 55% +4  1 - 6 +7 -16 F D A+ +25 A+ A+ B+
 Sun, Nov 30 202 Monmouth L 74 - 88 36% -13  1 - 7 -20 +0 C- D C+ -20 F A+ D
 Fri, Dec 5 306 Mercyhurst W 79 - 71 58% +2  2 - 7 -3 +11 A+ B- F -13 B+ F F
 Mon, Dec 8 182 @Penn L 72 - 74 16% -6  2 - 8 -0 -3 B- F F +2 B- A F
 Thu, Dec 18 173 @Charlotte L 67 - 81 15% -11  2 - 9 -12 +5 C- C+ C- -20 F C- F
 Sat, Dec 20 113 @Georgia Tech L 81 - 95 8% -7  2 - 10 -8 +12 A+ F A+ -19 D F F
 Wed, Dec 31 199 Colgate L 77 - 85 36% -1  2 - 11 0 - 1 -14 -4 D C D -10 D- A+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 324 @Loyola Maryland W 79 - 64 41% +15  3 - 11 1 - 1 +8 +7 C- A+ B+ +2 B- A+ F
 Wed, Jan 7 285 Boston University L 67 - 83 53% -10  3 - 12 1 - 2 -26 -10 F F A+ -17 F C- F
 Sat, Jan 10 194 @Navy L 50 - 76 17% -20  3 - 13 1 - 3 -25 -18 F F F -8 F C F
 Wed, Jan 14 319 @Bucknell L 69 - 76 40% +6  3 - 14 1 - 4 -14 -1 F F C -14 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 17 320 Holy Cross W 74 - 55 63% +12  4 - 14 2 - 4 +6 +1 F B- A+ +7 A+ B- C
 Wed, Jan 21 285 @Boston University L 73 - 77 OT 30% +2  4 - 15 2 - 5 -8 -7 F F C+ -1 C- C+ B-
 Sat, Jan 24 307 @Lehigh L 70 - 74 35%
 Mon, Jan 26 319 Bucknell W 72 - 68 63%
 Sat, Jan 31 224 @American L 67 - 76 21%
 Wed, Feb 4 194 Navy L 67 - 71 35%
 Sat, Feb 7 333 @Army L 73 - 75 44%
 Wed, Feb 11 324 Loyola Maryland W 76 - 72 63%
 Sat, Feb 14 307 Lehigh W 73 - 71 58%
 Wed, Feb 18 320 @Holy Cross L 69 - 71 41%
 Sun, Feb 22 224 American L 70 - 73 40%
 Wed, Feb 25 199 @Colgate L 68 - 78 18%
 Sat, Feb 28 333 Army W 76 - 72 66%
Totals 9 - 21 7 - 11 -9 -6 D D- C -4 D+ D F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 2.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 4.4 3.0 0.5 8.9 4th
5th 1.0 6.3 5.1 0.7 0.0 13.1 5th
6th 0.4 5.8 7.5 1.2 0.1 14.9 6th
7th 0.1 3.9 9.6 2.5 0.1 16.2 7th
8th 0.0 2.2 9.1 4.2 0.2 15.7 8th
9th 0.1 1.7 7.2 5.6 0.5 0.0 15.0 9th
10th 0.4 2.2 5.1 4.5 0.8 0.0 13.1 10th
Total 0.4 2.2 6.8 14.0 19.7 21.1 17.5 11.0 5.1 1.7 0.3 0.1 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 53.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 16.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.3% 12.1% 12.1% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.3
11-7 1.7% 10.2% 10.2% 16.0 0.2 1.5
10-8 5.1% 7.9% 7.9% 16.0 0.4 4.7
9-9 11.0% 6.1% 6.1% 16.0 0.7 10.3
8-10 17.5% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.6 16.9
7-11 21.1% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.4 20.8
6-12 19.7% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.3 19.5
5-13 14.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 13.9
4-14 6.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 6.8
3-15 2.2% 2.2
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 16.0 97.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%