Navy
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.3#197
Expected Predictive Rating-3.4#220
Pace67.4#245
Improvement-4.0#358

Offense
Total Offense-2.1#226
First Shot-2.1#228
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#181
Layup/Dunks-0.5#196
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#106
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.5#342
Freethrows+3.7#23
Improvement-1.6#305

Defense
Total Defense-0.3#172
First Shot-1.3#220
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#108
Layups/Dunks+4.4#46
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.8#360
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#253
Freethrows+1.0#124
Improvement-2.3#335
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.4% 24.2% 18.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.1 15.5
.500 or above 89.3% 91.4% 77.2%
.500 or above in Conference 89.6% 90.5% 84.3%
Conference Champion 32.8% 34.4% 23.7%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 0.9% 1.6%
First Four5.0% 4.8% 6.4%
First Round21.1% 22.0% 15.8%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Air Force (Home) - 85.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 31 - 6
Quad 418 - 619 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 262 @Presbyterian W 76-55 51%     1 - 0 +18.5 +10.2 +10.1
  Fri, Nov 7 73 Yale L 68-97 25%     1 - 1 -24.3 -12.3 -9.8
  Tue, Nov 11 96 @Penn St. L 71-80 16%     1 - 2 -0.7 +1.5 -2.4
  Tue, Nov 18 22 @North Carolina L 61-73 4%     1 - 3 +6.0 -3.1 +9.1
  Sat, Nov 22 348 NJIT W 86-70 88%     2 - 3 +0.7 +9.9 -9.0
  Wed, Nov 26 359 Gardner-Webb W 84-51 86%     3 - 3 +18.8 +8.3 +12.2
  Fri, Nov 28 109 @UNC Wilmington L 57-87 19%     3 - 4 -23.1 -9.5 -15.9
  Sat, Nov 29 246 SE Louisiana L 65-69 59%     3 - 5 -8.7 -1.8 -7.3
  Wed, Dec 3 351 @Delaware St. W 66-59 76%     4 - 5 -2.8 -8.6 +5.7
  Sun, Dec 7 331 Air Force W 72-61 85%    
  Fri, Dec 19 364 Coppin St. W 79-61 95%    
  Wed, Dec 31 253 Boston University W 73-67 71%    
  Sat, Jan 3 286 @Holy Cross W 71-69 56%    
  Wed, Jan 7 316 Bucknell W 76-67 80%    
  Sat, Jan 10 327 Lafayette W 75-64 83%    
  Mon, Jan 12 242 @American L 72-73 47%    
  Sat, Jan 17 307 @Lehigh W 72-69 60%    
  Wed, Jan 21 286 Holy Cross W 74-66 76%    
  Sat, Jan 24 340 Army W 78-66 86%    
  Wed, Jan 28 253 @Boston University L 70-71 49%    
  Sat, Jan 31 321 Loyola Maryland W 77-67 81%    
  Wed, Feb 4 327 @Lafayette W 72-67 66%    
  Sat, Feb 7 242 American W 75-70 68%    
  Mon, Feb 9 316 @Bucknell W 73-70 62%    
  Sat, Feb 14 179 @Colgate L 69-73 36%    
  Wed, Feb 18 307 Lehigh W 75-66 78%    
  Sat, Feb 21 340 @Army W 75-69 70%    
  Wed, Feb 25 321 @Loyola Maryland W 74-70 63%    
  Sat, Feb 28 179 Colgate W 72-70 58%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 2.3 6.3 8.6 8.0 4.9 2.0 0.5 32.8 1st
2nd 0.4 3.3 7.5 7.1 3.6 1.0 0.1 23.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.9 6.5 4.3 1.4 0.1 0.0 15.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.9 4.8 2.9 0.6 0.0 10.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 3.5 2.1 0.3 0.0 7.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 2.2 1.7 0.3 0.0 4.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.4 0.2 3.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.5 2.9 5.0 7.6 10.4 13.3 14.7 14.8 12.3 9.0 5.0 2.0 0.5 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 100.0% 2.0    2.0 0.0
16-2 98.1% 4.9    4.6 0.3
15-3 88.9% 8.0    6.6 1.3 0.0
14-4 69.7% 8.6    5.6 2.7 0.3 0.0
13-5 42.3% 6.3    2.6 2.8 0.8 0.1
12-6 15.5% 2.3    0.5 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0
11-7 2.2% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 32.8% 32.8 22.3 8.3 1.8 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 57.0% 57.0% 12.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2
17-1 2.0% 53.3% 53.3% 13.6 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.9
16-2 5.0% 44.9% 44.9% 14.2 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.7 0.1 2.7
15-3 9.0% 37.9% 37.9% 14.7 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.8 0.4 5.6
14-4 12.3% 33.1% 33.1% 15.1 0.0 0.7 2.2 1.2 8.2
13-5 14.8% 26.3% 26.3% 15.5 0.0 0.2 1.7 2.1 10.9
12-6 14.7% 21.7% 21.7% 15.7 0.0 0.8 2.3 11.5
11-7 13.3% 17.6% 17.6% 15.9 0.0 0.3 2.0 11.0
10-8 10.4% 14.0% 14.0% 16.0 0.0 1.4 9.0
9-9 7.6% 11.4% 11.4% 16.0 0.0 0.9 6.7
8-10 5.0% 7.6% 7.6% 16.0 0.4 4.6
7-11 2.9% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.1 2.8
6-12 1.5% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.1 1.5
5-13 0.6% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.0 0.6
4-14 0.3% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 23.4% 23.4% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.6 7.7 10.8 76.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 12.2 16.5 52.9 29.4 1.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%