Illinois St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.8#92
Expected Predictive Rating+5.8#101
Pace66.7#261
Improvement+4.2#9

Offense
Total Offense+3.2#94
First Shot+3.5#79
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#197
Layup/Dunks-1.3#225
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#83
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.7#51
Freethrows-1.8#288
Improvement+3.5#9

Defense
Total Defense+2.5#94
First Shot+0.1#172
After Offensive Rebounds+2.5#52
Layups/Dunks-2.2#255
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#231
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#107
Freethrows+0.5#148
Improvement+0.7#127
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.6% 24.1% 18.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 0.8% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.0 11.7 12.2
.500 or above 96.8% 99.0% 95.8%
.500 or above in Conference 90.2% 93.1% 88.9%
Conference Champion 27.8% 33.9% 24.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.2% 0.5%
First Four0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
First Round20.5% 23.8% 18.9%
Second Round4.0% 5.5% 3.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 1.2% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah St. (Neutral) - 32.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 32 - 5
Quad 39 - 411 - 9
Quad 410 - 122 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Thu, Nov 6 190 @Ohio L 68-72 67%     0 - 1 -2.9 -5.6 +2.7
  Sun, Nov 9 150 Cornell W 76-65 79%     1 - 1 +8.2 -4.7 +12.5
  Fri, Nov 14 35 USC L 67-87 25%     1 - 2 -7.2 -0.3 -7.2
  Sun, Nov 16 280 @Long Beach St. W 82-80 81%     2 - 2 -1.5 +9.5 -10.9
  Sun, Nov 23 235 Coastal Carolina W 94-42 88%     3 - 2 +44.7 +14.0 +27.6
  Thu, Nov 27 181 Charlotte W 79-69 76%     4 - 2 +8.4 +8.9 +0.2
  Fri, Nov 28 148 Furman W 72-65 69%     5 - 2 +7.6 +1.8 +6.1
  Wed, Dec 3 269 Eastern Kentucky W 89-78 90%     6 - 2 +2.4 +8.2 -6.0
  Sat, Dec 6 352 Chicago St. W 95-53 97%     7 - 2 +26.2 +17.6 +10.4
  Sat, Dec 13 51 Utah St. L 71-76 32%    
  Thu, Dec 18 143 @Southern Illinois W 74-72 56%    
  Sun, Dec 21 198 Indiana St. W 80-69 85%    
  Mon, Dec 29 124 @Drake W 69-68 52%    
  Thu, Jan 1 265 Evansville W 76-62 91%    
  Wed, Jan 7 211 @Valparaiso W 72-66 71%    
  Sat, Jan 10 204 Illinois-Chicago W 79-68 85%    
  Wed, Jan 14 198 @Indiana St. W 77-72 68%    
  Sat, Jan 17 115 Bradley W 73-68 69%    
  Wed, Jan 21 98 Northern Iowa W 67-63 63%    
  Sun, Jan 25 90 @Belmont L 73-76 39%    
  Wed, Jan 28 111 @Murray St. L 77-78 47%    
  Tue, Feb 3 143 Southern Illinois W 77-69 75%    
  Fri, Feb 6 124 Drake W 72-66 71%    
  Mon, Feb 9 265 @Evansville W 73-65 78%    
  Thu, Feb 12 211 Valparaiso W 75-63 86%    
  Sun, Feb 15 204 @Illinois-Chicago W 76-71 68%    
  Wed, Feb 18 111 Murray St. W 80-75 68%    
  Sat, Feb 21 115 @Bradley L 70-71 48%    
  Wed, Feb 25 98 @Northern Iowa L 64-66 42%    
  Sun, Mar 1 90 Belmont W 76-73 60%    
Projected Record 21 - 9 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 2.8 6.1 7.2 6.1 3.4 1.3 0.3 27.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 4.1 7.0 5.6 2.3 0.5 0.0 20.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 4.1 6.2 3.7 0.9 0.1 15.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.2 4.9 2.8 0.5 0.0 12.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.4 3.9 1.9 0.3 0.0 8.9 5th
6th 0.3 1.6 2.9 1.5 0.2 0.0 6.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.9 1.0 0.1 0.0 4.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.6 0.1 2.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.7 4.5 7.0 9.5 12.0 14.0 14.0 12.7 9.5 6.6 3.4 1.3 0.3 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 100.0% 1.3    1.3 0.0
18-2 99.5% 3.4    3.3 0.1
17-3 92.3% 6.1    5.2 0.9 0.0
16-4 75.4% 7.2    4.9 2.1 0.2 0.0
15-5 48.3% 6.1    3.0 2.4 0.7 0.0
14-6 20.3% 2.8    0.7 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0
13-7 4.5% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 27.8% 27.8 18.7 6.9 1.8 0.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 77.2% 62.0% 15.2% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 40.0%
19-1 1.3% 55.0% 47.4% 7.6% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.6 14.5%
18-2 3.4% 42.9% 41.3% 1.7% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.5 0.0 1.9 2.8%
17-3 6.6% 37.4% 36.9% 0.5% 11.6 0.0 1.1 1.2 0.1 4.1 0.8%
16-4 9.5% 32.5% 32.4% 0.1% 11.8 0.7 2.2 0.2 6.4 0.2%
15-5 12.7% 27.6% 27.5% 0.0% 12.0 0.5 2.5 0.5 0.0 9.2 0.0%
14-6 14.0% 23.0% 23.0% 12.2 0.0 0.2 2.2 0.7 0.0 10.8
13-7 14.0% 17.3% 17.3% 12.4 0.1 1.3 0.9 0.1 11.6
12-8 12.0% 13.5% 13.5% 12.6 0.0 0.7 0.8 0.1 10.4
11-9 9.5% 10.6% 10.6% 12.8 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 8.5
10-10 7.0% 7.6% 7.6% 13.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 6.5
9-11 4.5% 5.0% 5.0% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.2
8-12 2.7% 3.3% 3.3% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6
7-13 1.5% 2.2% 2.2% 15.1 0.0 0.0 1.5
6-14 0.7% 1.9% 1.9% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.7
5-15 0.3% 0.3
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 20.6% 20.3% 0.2% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 3.9 11.1 4.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 79.4 0.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 6.4 3.4 10.3 13.8 27.6 20.7 10.3 6.9 6.9