Utah St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.5#43
Expected Predictive Rating+8.3#56
Pace71.1#125
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.2#24
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.3#83
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.7% 0.7% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 1.8% 1.9% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 6.1% 6.4% 0.8%
Top 6 Seed 12.3% 12.9% 3.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 43.2% 44.4% 24.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 28.3% 29.4% 12.5%
Average Seed 8.2 8.1 9.5
.500 or above 96.6% 97.1% 88.9%
.500 or above in Conference 93.2% 93.6% 86.5%
Conference Champion 27.1% 27.9% 14.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four5.5% 5.6% 3.8%
First Round40.4% 41.6% 22.1%
Second Round23.1% 23.8% 10.4%
Sweet Sixteen9.8% 10.1% 4.1%
Elite Eight4.2% 4.4% 1.3%
Final Four1.7% 1.8% 0.5%
Championship Game0.6% 0.7% 0.2%
National Champion0.3% 0.3% 0.0%

Next Game: Montana (Home) - 94.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 22 - 4
Quad 24 - 36 - 7
Quad 37 - 213 - 8
Quad 49 - 023 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 352   Alcorn St. W 101-46 98%     1 - 0 +39.0 +18.9 +20.2
  Nov 09, 2024 133   Charlotte W 103-74 86%     2 - 0 +27.7 +28.6 -0.7
  Nov 18, 2024 218   Montana W 82-66 94%    
  Nov 22, 2024 45   Iowa W 84-83 52%    
  Nov 28, 2024 113   St. Bonaventure W 76-69 73%    
  Dec 04, 2024 196   Wyoming W 82-67 92%    
  Dec 07, 2024 301   Utah Tech W 88-67 97%    
  Dec 14, 2024 120   South Florida W 80-70 83%    
  Dec 17, 2024 132   UC San Diego W 79-67 86%    
  Dec 22, 2024 40   @ St. Mary's L 70-73 39%    
  Dec 28, 2024 55   @ San Diego St. L 69-71 44%    
  Dec 31, 2024 46   @ Nevada L 72-74 41%    
  Jan 04, 2025 234   Fresno St. W 86-69 93%    
  Jan 07, 2025 251   @ San Jose St. W 79-67 85%    
  Jan 11, 2025 47   Boise St. W 75-71 62%    
  Jan 15, 2025 94   @ UNLV W 74-72 57%    
  Jan 22, 2025 46   Nevada W 75-71 62%    
  Jan 25, 2025 286   @ Air Force W 76-62 89%    
  Jan 29, 2025 94   UNLV W 77-69 75%    
  Feb 01, 2025 56   New Mexico W 88-83 65%    
  Feb 04, 2025 196   @ Wyoming W 79-70 79%    
  Feb 07, 2025 234   @ Fresno St. W 83-72 83%    
  Feb 11, 2025 91   Colorado St. W 77-69 75%    
  Feb 16, 2025 56   @ New Mexico L 85-86 45%    
  Feb 19, 2025 251   San Jose St. W 82-64 94%    
  Feb 22, 2025 55   San Diego St. W 72-68 64%    
  Feb 26, 2025 47   @ Boise St. L 72-74 42%    
  Mar 01, 2025 91   @ Colorado St. W 74-72 56%    
  Mar 08, 2025 286   Air Force W 79-59 96%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.5 6.4 7.9 5.8 3.1 0.9 27.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 4.0 7.4 5.8 1.8 0.2 20.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.2 6.4 3.5 0.6 0.0 15.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 4.1 5.0 2.2 0.2 12.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.3 3.7 1.5 0.1 10.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.6 2.5 0.8 0.1 7.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.5 1.1 0.4 0.0 4.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.8 3.2 5.0 7.4 9.9 11.5 13.2 13.6 12.7 9.8 6.1 3.1 0.9 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
19-1 100.0% 3.1    3.1 0.0
18-2 96.0% 5.8    5.2 0.6 0.0
17-3 80.9% 7.9    5.7 2.2 0.1
16-4 50.2% 6.4    2.9 2.8 0.7 0.0
15-5 18.2% 2.5    0.7 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0
14-6 3.2% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 27.1% 27.1 18.5 6.8 1.6 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.9% 100.0% 68.1% 31.9% 2.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 3.1% 99.3% 55.7% 43.5% 3.8 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.3%
18-2 6.1% 96.5% 45.7% 50.8% 5.5 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 93.5%
17-3 9.8% 87.6% 38.0% 49.6% 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.0 1.2 80.0%
16-4 12.7% 73.8% 29.1% 44.8% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.8 1.9 2.0 0.2 3.3 63.1%
15-5 13.6% 52.8% 23.1% 29.6% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.1 2.0 2.5 0.4 6.4 38.6%
14-6 13.2% 30.8% 15.4% 15.4% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 2.0 0.5 0.0 9.1 18.2%
13-7 11.5% 19.5% 12.5% 7.0% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 0.5 0.0 9.3 8.0%
12-8 9.9% 10.2% 8.1% 2.1% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 8.9 2.3%
11-9 7.4% 7.1% 6.2% 0.9% 11.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 6.9 0.9%
10-10 5.0% 3.9% 3.9% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.8
9-11 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.1
8-12 1.8% 2.0% 2.0% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8
7-13 1.0% 0.6% 0.6% 12.5 0.0 0.0 1.0
6-14 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.5
5-15 0.2% 0.2
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 43.2% 20.8% 22.4% 8.2 0.7 1.1 1.7 2.5 3.0 3.2 3.4 4.1 4.9 6.5 9.3 2.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 56.8 28.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.6 52.7 36.5 6.8 4.1