Utah St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.7#47
Expected Predictive Rating+17.8#16
Pace71.1#118
Improvement-2.6#323

Offense
Total Offense+6.0#44
First Shot+4.7#56
After Offensive Rebound+1.3#112
Layup/Dunks+6.7#14
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#308
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#262
Freethrows+3.0#45
Improvement-2.1#326

Defense
Total Defense+4.7#60
First Shot+4.8#44
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#191
Layups/Dunks+6.2#23
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#341
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#325
Freethrows+5.6#1
Improvement-0.5#226
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.6% 0.8% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 3.4% 4.1% 1.0%
Top 6 Seed 9.3% 10.8% 3.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 53.0% 56.6% 40.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 39.0% 42.9% 26.3%
Average Seed 8.9 8.7 9.6
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
.500 or above in Conference 97.4% 97.8% 96.0%
Conference Champion 31.4% 33.3% 24.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four10.4% 10.6% 9.4%
First Round47.5% 51.1% 35.0%
Second Round23.8% 26.2% 15.5%
Sweet Sixteen7.9% 8.8% 4.5%
Elite Eight2.7% 3.1% 1.6%
Final Four0.9% 1.1% 0.4%
Championship Game0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: UC San Diego (Home) - 77.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b2 - 22 - 3
Quad 26 - 38 - 6
Quad 38 - 116 - 7
Quad 49 - 025 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 343   Alcorn St. W 101-46 98%     1 - 0 +40.7 +21.0 +19.8
  Nov 09, 2024 170   Charlotte W 103-74 90%     2 - 0 +25.4 +27.7 -2.1
  Nov 18, 2024 212   Montana W 95-83 93%     3 - 0 +6.5 +11.8 -6.1
  Nov 22, 2024 43   Iowa W 77-69 49%     4 - 0 +19.1 -0.3 +18.6
  Nov 28, 2024 89   St. Bonaventure W 72-67 67%     5 - 0 +11.1 +5.2 +6.0
  Nov 29, 2024 72   North Texas W 61-57 62%     6 - 0 +11.6 +2.6 +9.4
  Dec 04, 2024 187   Wyoming W 70-67 91%     7 - 0 1 - 0 -1.3 +7.4 -8.2
  Dec 07, 2024 298   Utah Tech W 92-62 96%     8 - 0 +19.7 +10.4 +8.2
  Dec 14, 2024 145   South Florida W 88-67 89%     9 - 0 +18.7 +12.5 +5.8
  Dec 17, 2024 95   UC San Diego W 76-68 78%    
  Dec 22, 2024 41   @ St. Mary's L 66-70 36%    
  Dec 28, 2024 45   @ San Diego St. L 70-73 38%    
  Dec 31, 2024 54   @ Nevada L 70-72 42%    
  Jan 04, 2025 256   Fresno St. W 86-67 96%    
  Jan 07, 2025 185   @ San Jose St. W 78-69 80%    
  Jan 11, 2025 58   Boise St. W 76-72 66%    
  Jan 15, 2025 113   @ UNLV W 74-70 65%    
  Jan 22, 2025 54   Nevada W 73-69 64%    
  Jan 25, 2025 267   @ Air Force W 75-62 89%    
  Jan 29, 2025 113   UNLV W 77-67 82%    
  Feb 01, 2025 71   New Mexico W 84-78 71%    
  Feb 04, 2025 187   @ Wyoming W 77-68 79%    
  Feb 07, 2025 256   @ Fresno St. W 83-70 88%    
  Feb 11, 2025 108   Colorado St. W 77-67 81%    
  Feb 16, 2025 71   @ New Mexico L 81-82 49%    
  Feb 19, 2025 185   San Jose St. W 81-66 91%    
  Feb 22, 2025 45   San Diego St. W 73-70 60%    
  Feb 26, 2025 58   @ Boise St. L 73-75 44%    
  Mar 01, 2025 108   @ Colorado St. W 74-70 63%    
  Mar 08, 2025 267   Air Force W 78-59 96%    
Projected Record 24 - 6 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 3.6 8.2 9.2 6.4 2.7 0.6 31.4 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 4.9 8.7 5.9 1.6 0.2 22.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 4.9 7.5 3.7 0.5 0.0 17.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.0 4.1 5.3 2.2 0.2 12.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.9 3.2 1.2 0.1 8.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 1.6 0.6 0.0 4.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 3.2 5.8 9.0 12.5 15.4 16.3 14.6 10.8 6.5 2.7 0.6 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
19-1 100.0% 2.7    2.7 0.0
18-2 97.4% 6.4    5.8 0.5
17-3 84.8% 9.2    6.7 2.4 0.1
16-4 55.9% 8.2    3.8 3.5 0.7 0.0
15-5 22.4% 3.6    0.9 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.0
14-6 4.6% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 31.4% 31.4 20.6 8.3 2.1 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.6% 99.7% 55.5% 44.2% 3.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.2%
19-1 2.7% 99.0% 47.3% 51.6% 4.5 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.0%
18-2 6.5% 96.6% 42.9% 53.7% 6.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 94.0%
17-3 10.8% 90.9% 37.4% 53.6% 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.6 1.8 2.0 1.5 0.7 0.0 1.0 85.5%
16-4 14.6% 78.1% 30.4% 47.7% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.4 3.3 2.6 0.1 3.2 68.6%
15-5 16.3% 60.8% 24.2% 36.6% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.1 4.2 0.2 6.4 48.3%
14-6 15.4% 41.6% 18.1% 23.5% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 3.6 0.4 9.0 28.7%
13-7 12.5% 27.9% 13.7% 14.2% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.4 0.3 0.0 9.0 16.5%
12-8 9.0% 17.1% 10.0% 7.1% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 0.3 7.5 7.9%
11-9 5.8% 9.9% 7.3% 2.6% 11.2 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 5.2 2.8%
10-10 3.2% 5.9% 5.1% 0.8% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.0 0.8%
9-11 1.6% 4.3% 4.2% 0.1% 11.7 0.0 0.0 1.5 0.1%
8-12 0.7% 3.6% 3.3% 0.3% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.3%
7-13 0.3% 1.5% 1.5% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.3
6-14 0.1% 2.0% 2.0% 13.0 0.0 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 53.0% 22.9% 30.1% 8.9 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.9 2.4 3.4 3.9 5.0 7.3 10.7 15.2 1.7 0.0 47.0 39.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 2.0 38.6 30.1 19.3 12.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 2.8 17.2 31.0 27.6 10.3 10.3 3.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 3.0 16.0 16.0 32.0 20.0 16.0