UNLV
Mountain West
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.5#94
Expected Predictive Rating-0.4#204
Pace64.0#327
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.2#68
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.2#130
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.9% 1.0% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.2% 10.9% 3.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 4.5% 4.9% 0.9%
Average Seed 9.9 9.9 10.9
.500 or above 70.5% 73.2% 44.2%
.500 or above in Conference 67.1% 68.7% 51.5%
Conference Champion 5.9% 6.2% 2.6%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 1.0% 2.7%
First Four1.5% 1.6% 0.3%
First Round9.5% 10.1% 3.7%
Second Round3.8% 4.1% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen1.1% 1.2% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Nebraska Omaha (Home) - 90.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 32 - 7
Quad 23 - 44 - 11
Quad 34 - 28 - 13
Quad 49 - 118 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 281   Alabama St. W 93-79 91%     1 - 0 +4.8 +17.5 -12.7
  Nov 09, 2024 34   Memphis L 74-80 39%     1 - 1 +2.4 +3.3 -0.8
  Nov 14, 2024 266   Nebraska Omaha W 77-63 90%    
  Nov 20, 2024 229   Pepperdine W 78-66 86%    
  Nov 23, 2024 147   New Mexico St. W 72-65 75%    
  Nov 28, 2024 26   Mississippi St. L 69-76 26%    
  Dec 07, 2024 16   @ Creighton L 66-77 15%    
  Dec 14, 2024 284   Pacific W 79-64 91%    
  Dec 17, 2024 58   @ Dayton L 66-72 29%    
  Dec 21, 2024 155   UC Riverside W 76-68 76%    
  Dec 28, 2024 234   Fresno St. W 79-67 85%    
  Dec 31, 2024 286   @ Air Force W 70-61 79%    
  Jan 04, 2025 251   San Jose St. W 75-62 87%    
  Jan 07, 2025 47   @ Boise St. L 66-73 26%    
  Jan 11, 2025 91   @ Colorado St. L 67-70 39%    
  Jan 15, 2025 43   Utah St. L 72-74 43%    
  Jan 18, 2025 55   @ San Diego St. L 63-70 28%    
  Jan 21, 2025 196   Wyoming W 75-65 81%    
  Jan 25, 2025 56   New Mexico L 80-81 49%    
  Jan 29, 2025 43   @ Utah St. L 69-77 25%    
  Feb 01, 2025 46   @ Nevada L 65-73 26%    
  Feb 04, 2025 47   Boise St. L 69-70 45%    
  Feb 08, 2025 196   @ Wyoming W 72-68 65%    
  Feb 11, 2025 286   Air Force W 73-58 90%    
  Feb 15, 2025 234   @ Fresno St. W 76-70 69%    
  Feb 22, 2025 91   Colorado St. W 70-67 59%    
  Feb 25, 2025 251   @ San Jose St. W 72-65 72%    
  Feb 28, 2025 46   Nevada L 68-70 45%    
  Mar 04, 2025 55   San Diego St. L 66-67 48%    
  Mar 07, 2025 56   @ New Mexico L 77-84 29%    
Projected Record 17 - 13 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.8 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.0 5.9 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 2.3 3.3 1.5 0.4 0.0 8.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.5 4.1 1.5 0.2 0.0 10.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.6 4.6 1.3 0.1 12.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.6 5.5 5.0 1.4 0.1 14.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.0 6.1 4.3 1.3 0.1 17.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.2 4.5 5.2 2.9 0.8 0.0 16.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 1.8 2.9 2.4 0.9 0.1 0.0 8.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 4.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 11th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.2 2.3 3.9 6.0 8.2 10.7 12.0 12.3 11.9 10.1 8.1 6.0 3.5 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
18-2 95.7% 0.8    0.8 0.1
17-3 80.1% 1.6    1.2 0.4 0.0
16-4 51.5% 1.8    0.8 0.8 0.2
15-5 17.1% 1.0    0.2 0.5 0.2 0.1
14-6 3.5% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.9% 5.9 3.3 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.3% 97.6% 50.0% 47.6% 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.2%
18-2 0.9% 88.0% 32.9% 55.0% 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 82.1%
17-3 2.0% 74.3% 28.9% 45.4% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 63.9%
16-4 3.5% 53.1% 20.4% 32.7% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.7 41.0%
15-5 6.0% 31.6% 17.2% 14.4% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 4.1 17.4%
14-6 8.1% 18.1% 12.2% 5.9% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 6.6 6.7%
13-7 10.1% 9.1% 7.2% 1.8% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 9.2 2.0%
12-8 11.9% 5.0% 4.7% 0.3% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 11.3 0.3%
11-9 12.3% 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 11.9 0.0%
10-10 12.0% 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 12.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 11.7 0.0%
9-11 10.7% 1.1% 1.1% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.6
8-12 8.2% 0.7% 0.7% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.1
7-13 6.0% 0.5% 0.5% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0
6-14 3.9% 0.3% 0.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 3.8
5-15 2.3% 2.3
4-16 1.2% 1.2
3-17 0.4% 0.4
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20
Total 100% 10.2% 5.9% 4.2% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.8 3.2 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 89.8 4.5%