Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
38 New Mexico 86.1%   9   21 - 5 14 - 2 24 - 6 17 - 3 +12.4      +4.8 70 +7.6 22 80.5 4 +14.5 33 +16.8 1
45 Utah St. 76.4%   10   22 - 4 13 - 3 25 - 5 16 - 4 +11.3      +9.4 16 +1.9 117 70.8 110 +14.9 29 +13.7 2
49 Boise St. 37.3%   17 - 8 10 - 5 21 - 9 14 - 6 +10.9      +6.1 46 +4.8 62 66.0 236 +9.3 61 +9.9 5
51 San Diego St. 68.5%   11   17 - 6 11 - 4 20 - 8 14 - 6 +10.7      +1.2 137 +9.5 11 65.7 245 +13.1 39 +10.7 4
67 Colorado St. 10.9%   17 - 9 11 - 4 20 - 11 14 - 6 +8.3      +5.3 57 +3.0 92 65.5 255 +8.3 72 +12.0 3
80 Nevada 5.2%   15 - 11 7 - 8 17 - 14 9 - 11 +7.2      +3.9 81 +3.3 86 61.5 345 +5.3 90 +2.8 7
98 UNLV 2.0%   14 - 12 8 - 7 16 - 15 10 - 10 +4.9      +1.1 144 +3.8 73 64.0 293 +4.8 98 +5.5 6
163 San Jose St. 0.2%   10 - 16 5 - 11 12 - 18 7 - 13 -0.2      +1.2 136 -1.4 213 65.0 264 -0.8 175 +0.9 8
166 Wyoming 0.1%   11 - 15 5 - 11 13 - 17 7 - 13 -0.3      -2.0 228 +1.7 126 62.9 322 +0.5 157 +0.6 9
254 Fresno St. 0.0%   5 - 22 1 - 15 6 - 25 2 - 18 -5.2      -4.1 287 -1.1 204 77.3 15 -8.2 300 -11.2 10
294 Air Force 0.0%   3 - 23 0 - 15 4 - 27 1 - 19 -7.3      -4.2 290 -3.1 258 61.6 344 -13.3 343 -14.4 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
New Mexico 1.1 93.7 6.0 0.3 0.0
Utah St. 2.0 23.5 57.9 11.9 5.6 1.1
Boise St. 3.7 0.4 13.4 28.9 28.6 28.3 0.4
San Diego St. 3.3 5.1 18.7 32.3 27.1 16.2 0.6
Colorado St. 3.3 3.0 21.0 32.6 26.0 17.2 0.2
Nevada 6.5 0.2 1.6 44.0 51.8 2.3 0.2
UNLV 6.2 0.2 0.8 4.6 68.9 25.0 0.4
San Jose St. 8.3 0.6 7.7 57.0 34.7
Wyoming 8.3 0.3 6.7 52.5 40.5
Fresno St. 10.1 0.4 93.8 5.8
Air Force 10.7 28.8 71.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
New Mexico 17 - 3 0.1 4.2 27.9 43.8 23.9
Utah St. 16 - 4 0.3 12.6 36.8 36.7 13.6
Boise St. 14 - 6 0.1 1.6 10.2 30.4 37.7 20.0
San Diego St. 14 - 6 1.1 8.0 21.9 34.7 26.1 8.2
Colorado St. 14 - 6 0.4 5.4 23.5 37.5 26.1 7.2
Nevada 9 - 11 2.6 16.4 33.2 31.0 14.5 2.4
UNLV 10 - 10 6.2 22.2 34.2 26.3 9.7 1.4
San Jose St. 7 - 13 7.4 33.2 38.9 18.2 2.4
Wyoming 7 - 13 12.3 34.6 38.0 13.6 1.5
Fresno St. 2 - 18 22.9 42.2 27.0 7.3 0.6
Air Force 1 - 19 36.9 50.2 11.7 1.2 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
New Mexico 93.7% 71.2 20.0 2.2 0.3 0.0
Utah St. 23.5% 5.4 16.0 1.8 0.3 0.0
Boise St. 0.4% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
San Diego St. 5.1% 0.4 3.1 1.4 0.3 0.0
Colorado St. 3.0% 0.2 1.5 1.0 0.2 0.0
Nevada
UNLV
San Jose St.
Wyoming
Fresno St.
Air Force


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
New Mexico 86.1% 29.9% 56.2% 9   0.1 0.4 1.8 3.9 7.6 16.5 26.3 21.4 8.0 0.1 13.9 80.2%
Utah St. 76.4% 21.7% 54.8% 10   0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 3.6 9.2 19.0 26.2 16.0 0.3 23.6 69.9%
Boise St. 37.3% 15.8% 21.6% 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.4 4.0 11.1 18.6 1.1 62.7 25.6%
San Diego St. 68.5% 16.8% 51.7% 11   0.1 0.4 1.0 1.9 5.9 14.9 24.2 19.7 0.4 31.5 62.1%
Colorado St. 10.9% 8.8% 2.1% 0.1 0.3 1.3 7.4 1.8 89.1 2.3%
Nevada 5.2% 4.8% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.0 2.0 0.1 0.0 94.8 0.5%
UNLV 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.4 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 98.0 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.0 99.8 0.0%
Wyoming 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 99.9 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
New Mexico 86.1% 6.2% 82.8% 37.6% 8.5% 3.0% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
Utah St. 76.4% 13.4% 69.0% 27.7% 5.6% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Boise St. 37.3% 13.4% 30.3% 10.5% 2.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
San Diego St. 68.5% 16.1% 59.5% 22.0% 4.3% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Colorado St. 10.9% 1.9% 9.8% 2.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nevada 5.2% 0.4% 5.0% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNLV 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wyoming 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.9 3.3 27.5 49.4 18.6 1.1 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 2.6 6.8 39.0 43.2 10.7 0.4
2nd Round 72.9% 1.0 27.1 47.6 21.9 3.2 0.2
Sweet Sixteen 20.2% 0.2 79.8 18.8 1.4 0.0
Elite Eight 6.8% 0.1 93.2 6.8 0.1
Final Four 1.6% 0.0 98.4 1.6
Final Game 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Champion 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1