Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
32 San Diego St. 70.4%   11   9 - 3 3 - 1 21 - 7 15 - 5 +12.5      +3.2 90 +9.2 10 65.7 253 +14.8 27 +11.1 3
49 Utah St. 79.6%   10   14 - 1 5 - 0 25 - 5 16 - 4 +10.9      +6.4 39 +4.5 62 71.8 100 +20.7 9 +24.4 1
56 Boise St. 22.7%   11 - 4 4 - 1 20 - 10 13 - 7 +9.3      +5.0 53 +4.3 68 66.6 239 +8.6 68 +10.4 5
58 New Mexico 33.3%   12 - 3 5 - 0 21 - 9 14 - 6 +9.2      +4.5 60 +4.6 59 80.9 6 +12.9 41 +19.5 2
60 Nevada 12.3%   8 - 7 0 - 4 18 - 13 10 - 10 +8.7      +4.7 59 +3.9 76 61.7 346 +4.4 104 -9.7 10
88 Colorado St. 6.3%   9 - 6 3 - 1 18 - 13 12 - 8 +6.2      +1.1 146 +5.0 51 67.4 224 +4.8 101 +11.0 4
101 UNLV 2.6%   9 - 6 3 - 1 16 - 15 10 - 10 +4.2      +3.0 93 +1.2 137 64.0 302 +4.5 103 +7.2 6
158 Wyoming 0.4%   8 - 7 2 - 3 13 - 17 7 - 13 +0.1      -0.9 202 +1.0 142 63.9 304 +1.2 150 +3.2 7
171 San Jose St. 0.2%   5 - 10 0 - 5 10 - 20 5 - 15 -0.5      +2.2 118 -2.7 254 65.0 270 -4.3 239 -8.5 9
259 Fresno St. 0.0%   4 - 12 0 - 5 7 - 24 3 - 17 -5.5      -4.0 285 -1.5 217 81.3 5 -6.4 274 -6.6 8
279 Air Force 0.0%   3 - 12 0 - 4 6 - 25 3 - 17 -6.6      -4.1 289 -2.6 252 60.5 352 -12.2 335 -12.9 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
San Diego St. 2.4 33.5 28.3 18.4 10.6 5.7 2.4 0.9 0.2 0.0
Utah St. 2.0 49.2 24.5 13.9 7.4 3.4 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
Boise St. 3.4 12.7 17.8 22.8 22.0 13.9 7.5 2.8 0.5 0.0
New Mexico 2.7 25.5 24.1 22.6 15.6 7.9 3.1 1.0 0.1 0.0
Nevada 5.7 0.6 2.4 6.2 12.0 20.9 26.5 21.8 7.7 1.7 0.2 0.0
Colorado St. 4.7 3.8 7.4 12.5 18.4 24.3 18.7 10.9 3.6 0.5 0.0 0.0
UNLV 5.9 1.1 2.6 5.3 10.2 17.3 23.3 25.6 11.9 2.4 0.2 0.0
Wyoming 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 3.9 9.5 21.9 41.5 17.4 3.7 0.5
San Jose St. 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.5 7.9 23.6 42.8 16.8 5.7
Fresno St. 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 6.3 21.8 42.7 27.7
Air Force 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 3.0 13.7 35.1 47.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
San Diego St. 15 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.3 6.3 10.8 15.5 19.2 18.7 14.4 7.9 2.0
Utah St. 16 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 3.7 7.5 12.7 17.7 19.7 17.8 12.2 5.4 1.2
Boise St. 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.0 4.6 9.2 14.5 18.1 19.4 15.4 10.0 4.5 1.4 0.2
New Mexico 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.9 4.7 9.1 14.2 18.6 19.2 15.4 10.0 4.5 1.5 0.2
Nevada 10 - 10 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.2 5.1 9.4 14.2 17.6 18.9 15.2 10.3 4.6 1.4 0.3
Colorado St. 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 4.4 8.6 13.0 16.7 18.3 15.2 11.2 6.2 2.7 0.9 0.2 0.0
UNLV 10 - 10 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.7 6.9 11.9 15.8 16.9 16.4 12.3 7.8 4.2 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.0
Wyoming 7 - 13 0.2 1.1 4.5 9.9 16.4 20.1 18.8 14.2 8.4 4.1 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
San Jose St. 5 - 15 0.2 1.2 4.4 10.0 15.8 20.1 19.1 14.4 8.6 4.2 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Fresno St. 3 - 17 2.7 9.8 19.1 22.7 20.4 13.5 7.3 3.0 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
Air Force 3 - 17 6.9 18.0 24.6 22.2 15.0 8.1 3.4 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
San Diego St. 33.5% 20.4 10.2 2.5 0.3 0.0
Utah St. 49.2% 34.2 11.9 2.6 0.4 0.0
Boise St. 12.7% 6.2 4.6 1.6 0.3 0.0
New Mexico 25.5% 14.9 8.0 2.2 0.3 0.0
Nevada 0.6% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
Colorado St. 3.8% 1.5 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0
UNLV 1.1% 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Wyoming 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
San Jose St.
Fresno St.
Air Force


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
San Diego St. 70.4% 30.5% 39.9% 11   0.2 0.5 1.1 2.4 3.4 4.8 6.3 8.9 12.3 16.3 13.7 0.3 29.6 57.4%
Utah St. 79.6% 22.3% 57.3% 10   0.1 0.3 0.9 2.3 4.3 7.3 9.8 12.7 15.9 16.2 9.9 0.2 20.4 73.7%
Boise St. 22.7% 14.5% 8.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 2.1 5.2 12.4 1.4 0.0 77.3 9.7%
New Mexico 33.3% 14.7% 18.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.4 4.8 9.0 14.2 0.7 66.7 21.8%
Nevada 12.3% 9.5% 2.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.7 7.5 2.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 87.7 3.2%
Colorado St. 6.3% 5.4% 0.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 4.0 1.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 93.7 0.9%
UNLV 2.6% 2.5% 0.1% 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 97.4 0.1%
Wyoming 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 99.6 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.8 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
San Diego St. 70.4% 11.0% 65.0% 34.4% 10.7% 3.8% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Utah St. 79.6% 9.8% 74.3% 35.1% 8.4% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
Boise St. 22.7% 4.9% 20.2% 7.3% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
New Mexico 33.3% 9.2% 28.3% 10.9% 2.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Nevada 12.3% 2.2% 11.2% 3.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Colorado St. 6.3% 0.7% 5.9% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNLV 2.6% 0.1% 2.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wyoming 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.3 12.6 51.1 32.2 4.1 0.1
1st Round 100.0% 2.1 0.0 19.4 55.2 23.6 1.9 0.0
2nd Round 70.5% 0.9 29.5 49.5 19.2 1.8 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 22.9% 0.2 77.1 21.4 1.4 0.0
Elite Eight 7.7% 0.1 92.3 7.5 0.2
Final Four 2.4% 0.0 97.6 2.4
Final Game 0.7% 0.0 99.3 0.7
Champion 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2