Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
41 San Diego St. 53.0%   11   3 - 2 0 - 0 20 - 8 14 - 6 +11.3      +3.5 81 +7.8 11 65.5 283 +15.5 25 0.0 1
45 Utah St. 52.8%   6 - 0 0 - 0 23 - 7 14 - 6 +10.9      +5.6 46 +5.3 41 73.9 65 +18.8 14 0.0 1
49 Nevada 34.0%   6 - 2 0 - 0 22 - 9 14 - 6 +10.2      +5.3 54 +4.9 52 63.2 322 +9.9 68 0.0 1
53 New Mexico 35.3%   6 - 2 0 - 0 21 - 9 14 - 6 +9.8      +5.0 59 +4.8 55 83.5 2 +12.2 48 0.0 1
59 Boise St. 27.2%   4 - 2 0 - 0 20 - 10 13 - 7 +9.5      +5.3 51 +4.2 72 68.7 193 +7.6 80 0.0 1
105 UNLV 3.5%   4 - 3 0 - 0 16 - 15 10 - 10 +4.3      +2.9 96 +1.4 120 64.4 304 +2.1 135 0.0 1
108 Colorado St. 3.0%   4 - 3 0 - 0 16 - 15 10 - 10 +3.7      +0.3 166 +3.4 88 65.8 271 +0.4 162 0.0 1
203 Wyoming 0.3%   4 - 2 0 - 0 12 - 18 6 - 14 -1.8      -1.9 227 +0.1 168 67.8 222 +1.7 143 0.0 1
213 San Jose St. 0.1%   3 - 5 0 - 0 10 - 20 6 - 14 -2.2      +0.1 171 -2.3 254 63.8 314 -5.6 262 0.0 1
244 Fresno St. 0.0%   3 - 4 0 - 0 9 - 22 5 - 15 -4.7      -5.4 321 +0.7 147 81.5 6 -5.3 255 0.0 1
278 Air Force 0.0%   2 - 7 0 - 0 7 - 24 4 - 16 -6.4      -2.4 236 -4.0 302 58.3 361 -14.0 346 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
San Diego St. 2.8 31.3 21.1 16.8 12.9 9.4 5.1 2.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Utah St. 2.9 28.3 20.9 17.2 14.0 10.3 5.6 2.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Nevada 3.2 22.0 20.2 18.0 15.5 12.5 7.3 3.3 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0
New Mexico 3.3 20.0 19.3 18.2 15.8 13.2 7.9 3.9 1.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Boise St. 3.5 18.8 18.0 17.8 15.8 13.6 9.4 4.5 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
UNLV 5.8 2.5 4.6 7.3 9.5 15.9 22.5 20.2 10.2 4.9 1.8 0.6
Colorado St. 6.0 2.1 3.4 6.1 9.5 14.7 21.7 21.8 11.9 5.7 2.4 0.8
Wyoming 8.3 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 3.5 7.6 14.7 24.8 22.1 16.0 8.6
San Jose St. 8.5 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.7 6.4 13.2 23.8 24.5 17.7 9.9
Fresno St. 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.7 7.3 15.5 22.1 28.0 23.1
Air Force 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.9 10.0 19.1 28.2 36.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
San Diego St. 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.1 3.2 6.2 8.6 11.9 13.8 15.5 14.3 11.2 7.2 3.4 1.0
Utah St. 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.2 3.9 6.5 9.6 12.6 14.4 15.8 13.3 10.3 6.2 2.8 0.7
Nevada 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 3.0 5.1 7.7 11.2 14.2 14.9 14.7 12.1 8.7 4.3 1.6 0.4
New Mexico 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 3.3 5.7 8.3 11.8 14.0 15.1 14.6 11.6 7.0 3.9 1.5 0.3
Boise St. 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.1 3.8 6.3 9.5 11.9 13.2 15.3 13.6 10.4 6.7 3.9 1.3 0.2
UNLV 10 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.7 5.4 8.2 10.7 13.6 14.0 12.7 11.0 8.5 5.5 3.3 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1
Colorado St. 10 - 10 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.8 3.4 6.2 9.0 11.9 13.2 14.2 12.9 10.1 7.4 4.4 2.6 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Wyoming 6 - 14 0.4 1.6 4.2 7.9 12.0 14.5 15.6 13.4 11.2 7.9 5.2 3.1 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
San Jose St. 6 - 14 0.3 1.8 4.9 9.3 12.8 16.5 15.1 13.4 10.5 7.0 4.0 2.4 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Fresno St. 5 - 15 1.5 5.4 12.0 15.6 17.3 16.1 12.2 9.0 5.3 3.0 1.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Air Force 4 - 16 3.0 10.2 17.2 18.7 17.9 13.9 8.8 5.4 2.6 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
San Diego St. 31.3% 21.2 7.9 1.9 0.3 0.0
Utah St. 28.3% 18.7 7.4 1.9 0.4 0.0
Nevada 22.0% 13.4 6.5 1.7 0.4 0.0
New Mexico 20.0% 12.3 5.7 1.6 0.3 0.0
Boise St. 18.8% 11.2 5.6 1.6 0.4 0.0
UNLV 2.5% 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Colorado St. 2.1% 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
Wyoming 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0
San Jose St. 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Fresno St. 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Air Force


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
San Diego St. 53.0% 23.3% 29.8% 11   0.5 0.9 1.6 2.9 3.1 3.9 4.4 5.3 7.1 9.4 12.4 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 47.0 38.8%
Utah St. 52.8% 21.4% 31.4% 0.4 0.6 1.6 2.3 2.8 3.6 4.0 5.1 7.1 10.4 13.1 1.7 0.0 0.0 47.2 39.9%
Nevada 34.0% 17.2% 16.7% 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.4 2.2 2.8 4.3 6.9 11.6 2.3 0.0 0.0 66.0 20.2%
New Mexico 35.3% 16.7% 18.6% 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.6 2.0 2.7 4.6 7.1 12.7 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 64.7 22.3%
Boise St. 27.2% 15.5% 11.7% 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.5 2.1 3.4 5.4 9.7 2.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 72.8 13.9%
UNLV 3.5% 2.8% 0.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.4 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 96.5 0.7%
Colorado St. 3.0% 2.6% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 97.0 0.5%
Wyoming 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
San Diego St. 53.0% 8.5% 49.0% 27.1% 10.2% 4.1% 1.6% 0.7% 0.3%
Utah St. 52.8% 9.4% 48.0% 25.3% 9.0% 3.4% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1%
Nevada 34.0% 6.2% 30.9% 14.7% 4.9% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
New Mexico 35.3% 7.5% 31.6% 15.1% 4.9% 1.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
Boise St. 27.2% 4.3% 25.2% 11.5% 3.9% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
UNLV 3.5% 0.4% 3.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Colorado St. 3.0% 0.2% 2.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wyoming 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.1 22.7 49.3 24.0 3.9 0.1
1st Round 100.0% 1.9 0.0 30.2 50.1 17.6 2.0 0.0
2nd Round 71.5% 1.0 28.5 50.0 19.2 2.2 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 30.5% 0.3 69.5 27.8 2.6 0.1 0.0
Elite Eight 12.1% 0.1 87.9 11.8 0.3
Final Four 4.5% 0.0 95.5 4.5 0.0
Final Game 1.7% 0.0 98.3 1.7 0.0
Champion 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.6