Preseason Rankings
Mountain West
2024-25


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
47 San Diego St. 44.5%   11   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 9 14 - 6 +10.0      +2.8 97 +7.1 13 65.7 260 0.0 1 0.0 1
63 Boise St. 30.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 10 13 - 7 +8.6      +4.0 76 +4.6 47 66.0 255 0.0 1 0.0 1
70 New Mexico 27.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 10 12 - 8 +8.2      +4.3 69 +3.9 71 80.1 8 0.0 1 0.0 1
75 Nevada 24.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 12 - 8 +7.6      +3.5 85 +4.0 68 66.8 231 0.0 1 0.0 1
81 Utah St. 22.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 12 - 8 +7.2      +4.3 66 +2.9 93 70.9 106 0.0 1 0.0 1
84 Colorado St. 21.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 11 12 - 8 +7.0      +2.9 96 +4.2 60 65.2 276 0.0 1 0.0 1
95 UNLV 16.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 11 - 9 +6.0      +3.4 89 +2.6 96 64.0 310 0.0 1 0.0 1
160 San Jose St. 2.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 17 7 - 13 +0.2      +0.5 156 -0.3 178 65.0 280 0.0 1 0.0 1
177 Wyoming 1.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 17 7 - 13 -0.7      +0.1 163 -0.7 192 67.8 199 0.0 1 0.0 1
229 Air Force 0.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 20 5 - 15 -3.4      -1.0 208 -2.4 252 58.3 361 0.0 1 0.0 1
250 Fresno St. 0.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 21 5 - 15 -4.2      -3.2 275 -1.0 199 64.5 295 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
San Diego St. 3.2 28.5 18.7 15.0 11.5 9.1 7.0 4.8 2.9 1.6 0.7 0.2
Boise St. 3.8 20.7 16.6 14.8 12.8 11.0 8.9 6.7 4.4 2.5 1.1 0.4
New Mexico 4.0 18.1 15.7 14.5 13.2 11.4 9.9 7.5 5.1 2.8 1.3 0.4
Nevada 4.3 15.4 14.7 13.8 13.1 12.1 10.6 8.5 5.9 3.4 1.7 0.7
Utah St. 4.4 14.1 14.0 13.7 13.2 12.4 10.9 8.9 6.3 3.7 2.0 0.8
Colorado St. 4.5 13.3 13.1 13.3 13.2 12.3 11.5 9.3 6.9 4.3 2.1 0.8
UNLV 5.0 9.9 11.1 12.0 12.5 12.6 12.4 11.5 8.2 5.4 3.1 1.3
San Jose St. 7.7 1.1 2.1 3.4 4.9 6.9 9.7 13.0 17.1 17.7 14.8 9.3
Wyoming 8.0 0.8 1.6 2.7 4.0 5.7 8.4 11.9 16.2 18.7 17.2 12.6
Air Force 9.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.8 2.9 4.8 7.9 12.9 18.8 24.0 25.5
Fresno St. 9.3 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.3 2.3 3.9 6.5 11.0 17.7 24.6 31.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
San Diego St. 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.8 3.0 4.4 5.8 7.7 9.7 11.1 12.0 11.8 11.0 8.7 6.4 3.6 1.0
Boise St. 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.9 2.9 4.3 5.9 7.6 9.4 10.7 11.6 11.3 10.2 8.8 6.6 4.2 2.2 0.7
New Mexico 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.2 2.1 3.3 5.0 6.6 8.3 9.8 11.1 11.4 11.1 9.7 8.1 5.7 3.7 1.7 0.4
Nevada 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.4 2.5 3.9 5.7 7.2 9.1 10.2 11.2 10.9 10.4 9.1 7.1 4.9 3.0 1.3 0.3
Utah St. 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.7 2.7 4.2 6.1 7.6 9.3 10.4 11.2 10.9 10.3 8.8 6.7 4.5 2.6 1.1 0.3
Colorado St. 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.8 3.3 4.7 6.3 7.8 9.6 10.7 11.1 10.9 10.0 8.0 6.2 4.1 2.3 1.1 0.3
UNLV 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.8 3.9 6.0 7.4 9.2 10.1 10.9 10.8 10.2 8.5 6.9 4.8 3.1 1.6 0.7 0.1
San Jose St. 7 - 13 0.4 1.5 3.7 6.4 8.5 10.6 12.0 11.4 11.3 9.3 7.8 6.1 4.4 3.0 1.8 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Wyoming 7 - 13 0.7 2.4 4.9 8.0 10.1 11.3 12.2 11.4 10.1 8.7 6.6 5.0 3.6 2.3 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Air Force 5 - 15 2.3 6.1 10.1 12.6 13.5 13.1 11.8 9.5 7.4 5.2 3.6 2.2 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Fresno St. 5 - 15 3.2 7.8 12.0 13.9 13.7 13.0 10.7 8.4 6.2 4.4 2.7 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
San Diego St. 28.5% 20.3 6.6 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Boise St. 20.7% 14.0 5.4 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
New Mexico 18.1% 11.9 4.9 1.1 0.2 0.0
Nevada 15.4% 10.0 4.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Utah St. 14.1% 9.1 3.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Colorado St. 13.3% 8.6 3.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
UNLV 9.9% 6.0 2.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0
San Jose St. 1.1% 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Wyoming 0.8% 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Air Force 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Fresno St. 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
San Diego St. 44.5% 21.3% 23.2% 11   1.2 1.9 2.4 3.4 3.2 3.7 3.3 3.8 4.6 5.9 8.2 2.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 55.5 29.4%
Boise St. 30.6% 16.0% 14.6% 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.6 1.8 1.8 2.2 2.4 3.1 4.5 7.3 3.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 69.4 17.4%
New Mexico 27.2% 14.2% 13.1% 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.1 2.9 4.2 6.6 2.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 72.8 15.2%
Nevada 24.2% 12.6% 11.5% 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 2.4 3.5 6.4 3.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 75.8 13.2%
Utah St. 22.2% 12.1% 10.2% 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.6 2.2 3.3 6.0 2.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 77.8 11.6%
Colorado St. 21.1% 11.3% 9.8% 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.3 1.3 1.6 2.2 3.1 5.6 2.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 78.9 11.1%
UNLV 16.1% 9.0% 7.1% 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.5 2.4 4.8 2.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 83.9 7.8%
San Jose St. 2.1% 1.6% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 97.9 0.5%
Wyoming 1.7% 1.2% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.3 0.5%
Air Force 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.6 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
San Diego St. 44.5% 5.1% 42.0% 24.4% 10.6% 4.8% 2.0% 0.8% 0.3%
Boise St. 30.6% 4.3% 28.6% 15.3% 6.3% 2.7% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2%
New Mexico 27.2% 3.6% 25.5% 13.1% 4.9% 2.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
Nevada 24.2% 3.8% 22.3% 11.0% 4.2% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
Utah St. 22.2% 3.3% 20.6% 9.9% 3.7% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
Colorado St. 21.1% 3.0% 19.6% 9.3% 3.4% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
UNLV 16.1% 2.6% 14.9% 6.6% 2.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
San Jose St. 2.1% 0.3% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wyoming 1.7% 0.3% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Air Force 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.9 34.3 44.7 17.6 3.2 0.3 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 1.8 0.0 40.5 43.4 13.9 2.0 0.1 0.0
2nd Round 67.9% 0.9 32.1 47.9 17.5 2.4 0.1 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 32.1% 0.4 67.9 28.8 3.2 0.1 0.0
Elite Eight 14.2% 0.1 85.8 13.6 0.6 0.0
Final Four 5.8% 0.1 94.2 5.7 0.1 0.0
Final Game 2.3% 0.0 97.7 2.3 0.0
Champion 1.0% 0.0 99.0 1.0