Preseason Rankings
Mountain West
2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
38 San Diego St. 54.9%   11   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 7 15 - 5 +13.2      +4.6 59 +8.6 13 65.3 258 0.0 1 0.0 1
54 Utah St. 33.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 9 13 - 7 +10.2      +7.3 32 +2.9 97 68.5 166 0.0 1 0.0 1
62 Boise St. 28.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 10 13 - 7 +9.4      +5.0 57 +4.4 65 64.9 272 0.0 1 0.0 1
79 New Mexico 14.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 12 - 8 +7.1      +2.7 101 +4.4 63 79.7 6 0.0 1 0.0 1
80 Grand Canyon 13.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 11 12 - 8 +6.9      +3.4 86 +3.6 80 76.3 19 0.0 1 0.0 1
86 UNLV 12.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 11 - 9 +6.2      +3.0 96 +3.2 88 64.7 277 0.0 1 0.0 1
94 Colorado St. 8.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 12 11 - 9 +5.3      +2.7 100 +2.6 101 65.1 267 0.0 1 0.0 1
98 Nevada 8.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 13 10 - 10 +5.2      +1.5 122 +3.7 77 61.6 337 0.0 1 0.0 1
155 Wyoming 1.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 16 7 - 13 +0.1      -0.8 187 +0.8 137 62.7 319 0.0 1 0.0 1
159 San Jose St. 1.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 18 7 - 13 -0.3      -0.3 172 +0.1 160 66.1 228 0.0 1 0.0 1
198 Fresno St. 0.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 18 6 - 14 -2.3      -1.0 194 -1.3 208 76.1 20 0.0 1 0.0 1
280 Air Force 0.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 22 4 - 16 -6.7      -4.8 311 -1.9 234 62.5 328 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
San Diego St. 2.6 41.6 20.8 12.6 8.8 6.0 4.1 2.8 1.8 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Utah St. 3.8 21.3 18.5 14.8 11.9 9.7 7.9 6.1 4.5 2.9 1.6 0.7 0.2
Boise St. 4.2 17.1 16.2 14.0 12.4 10.3 8.7 7.4 5.8 4.1 2.6 1.2 0.2
New Mexico 5.0 9.8 12.2 12.1 12.8 12.1 10.8 9.8 8.1 5.7 3.7 2.1 0.6
Grand Canyon 5.0 10.0 11.9 12.8 12.5 11.7 11.0 9.4 7.9 5.9 4.0 2.2 0.7
UNLV 5.5 7.5 9.9 11.2 11.6 12.0 11.7 10.5 9.2 7.2 5.1 2.8 1.1
Colorado St. 5.7 6.0 8.6 10.7 11.5 11.6 11.3 11.3 10.2 8.1 6.0 3.5 1.2
Nevada 5.8 5.9 8.1 9.9 10.9 11.8 11.8 11.4 10.5 8.6 6.1 3.6 1.4
Wyoming 8.4 0.8 1.9 2.5 4.1 5.7 7.6 9.9 12.3 15.7 16.7 14.6 8.3
San Jose St. 8.4 0.8 1.8 2.9 4.4 5.8 7.4 9.6 12.0 14.7 16.5 15.3 8.7
Fresno St. 9.2 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.4 3.6 5.1 7.3 9.9 13.8 18.3 21.3 15.6
Air Force 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.4 4.3 7.4 13.3 23.5 46.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
San Diego St. 15 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.3 3.4 5.0 7.0 9.1 11.1 12.5 13.4 13.0 10.6 6.9 3.1
Utah St. 13 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.3 2.3 3.7 5.4 7.1 8.6 10.1 11.5 11.5 11.7 9.5 7.5 5.2 2.6 0.8
Boise St. 13 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.3 2.3 3.4 4.8 6.5 8.1 9.5 10.4 11.1 11.2 9.9 8.3 6.3 3.8 1.6 0.5
New Mexico 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.1 3.1 4.9 6.7 8.9 10.0 11.4 11.4 10.6 9.3 7.9 5.5 3.5 1.9 0.7 0.2
Grand Canyon 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.0 3.5 5.0 6.9 8.2 10.3 10.9 11.3 10.7 9.4 7.7 5.7 3.6 1.9 0.8 0.2
UNLV 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.7 2.8 4.3 5.9 8.1 9.7 10.9 11.2 10.4 10.1 8.3 6.4 4.3 2.7 1.3 0.5 0.1
Colorado St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.1 3.2 4.9 6.8 8.9 10.2 10.9 10.9 10.7 9.6 7.6 5.4 3.8 2.1 0.9 0.4 0.1
Nevada 10 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.1 3.3 5.1 7.3 8.9 10.6 11.0 11.5 10.4 8.8 7.1 5.5 3.3 1.9 1.1 0.3 0.1
Wyoming 7 - 13 0.4 1.6 3.8 5.9 8.7 10.5 12.1 12.3 10.9 9.7 8.0 6.0 4.2 2.6 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
San Jose St. 7 - 13 0.5 1.9 3.7 6.4 8.9 10.4 11.7 11.8 11.0 9.4 7.5 6.0 4.1 3.0 1.8 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Fresno St. 6 - 14 1.0 3.7 6.9 9.9 11.8 13.0 12.2 11.0 9.2 7.1 5.1 3.7 2.4 1.4 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Air Force 4 - 16 6.9 13.4 16.3 16.4 13.7 11.2 8.0 5.5 3.6 2.2 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
San Diego St. 41.6% 31.6 8.0 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
Utah St. 21.3% 14.6 5.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Boise St. 17.1% 11.3 4.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
New Mexico 9.8% 6.1 2.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Grand Canyon 10.0% 6.1 2.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
UNLV 7.5% 4.5 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Colorado St. 6.0% 3.5 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
Nevada 5.9% 3.5 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Wyoming 0.8% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
San Jose St. 0.8% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Fresno St. 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Air Force 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
San Diego St. 54.9% 31.4% 23.5% 11   1.2 2.0 2.8 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.7 5.5 7.2 10.3 8.3 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 45.1 34.2%
Utah St. 33.3% 17.3% 16.1% 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.7 1.6 2.2 2.5 3.1 4.7 7.7 7.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 66.7 19.4%
Boise St. 28.2% 14.2% 14.0% 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.8 2.1 2.7 3.9 6.9 6.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 71.8 16.3%
New Mexico 14.9% 8.6% 6.3% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.7 3.6 4.8 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 85.1 6.9%
Grand Canyon 13.2% 8.5% 4.6% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.4 3.1 4.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 86.8 5.1%
UNLV 12.1% 6.9% 5.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.3 3.1 4.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 87.9 5.6%
Colorado St. 8.9% 5.7% 3.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.9 2.1 3.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 91.1 3.4%
Nevada 8.6% 5.1% 3.5% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 1.0 1.9 3.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 91.4 3.7%
Wyoming 1.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.8 0.2%
San Jose St. 1.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.9 0.2%
Fresno St. 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5 0.1%
Air Force 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
San Diego St. 54.9% 6.1% 52.0% 31.8% 12.8% 5.4% 2.3% 1.0% 0.4%
Utah St. 33.3% 5.2% 30.8% 16.3% 5.3% 2.0% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
Boise St. 28.2% 4.7% 25.7% 12.8% 3.8% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
New Mexico 14.9% 2.8% 13.5% 5.6% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Grand Canyon 13.2% 2.1% 12.1% 5.0% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
UNLV 12.1% 2.3% 10.9% 4.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Colorado St. 8.9% 1.6% 8.0% 3.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Nevada 8.6% 1.8% 7.7% 2.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Wyoming 1.2% 0.2% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Jose St. 1.1% 0.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.5% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Air Force 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.8 39.9 45.0 13.4 1.6 0.1 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 1.6 0.0 47.7 42.1 9.4 0.8 0.0
2nd Round 65.0% 0.8 35.0 49.3 14.6 1.2 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 25.2% 0.3 74.8 23.6 1.6 0.0
Elite Eight 10.1% 0.1 89.9 9.9 0.2
Final Four 4.0% 0.0 96.0 3.9 0.0
Final Game 1.6% 0.0 98.4 1.6
Champion 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5