Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
35 Utah St. 95.3%   7   20 - 3 12 - 2 +14.3      +8.6 32 +5.7 44 69.1 168 +15.7 31 +15.9 1
43 San Diego St. 58.6%   16 - 6 11 - 2 +12.3      +3.1 95 +9.2 14 70.7 121 +12.1 50 +15.6 2
49 New Mexico 48.4%   18 - 6 10 - 4 +11.0      +5.4 65 +5.6 45 74.5 41 +11.7 51 +11.0 3
58 Boise St. 27.5%   14 - 8 7 - 6 +9.4      +5.8 58 +3.5 78 66.0 249 +10.2 58 +7.9 6
66 Nevada 11.9%   17 - 7 9 - 4 +8.3      +5.4 67 +2.9 95 63.6 316 +9.6 59 +10.6 4
68 Grand Canyon 8.7%   15 - 9 8 - 5 +8.1      +0.6 151 +7.5 26 69.8 143 +7.3 80 +9.4 5
103 Colorado St. 1.2%   13 - 10 5 - 8 +4.7      +4.8 73 -0.1 171 59.5 363 +4.5 97 +1.6 9
106 Wyoming 0.9%   12 - 11 4 - 9 +4.3      +3.1 94 +1.2 132 66.5 240 +2.6 121 +0.2 10
124 UNLV 0.6%   11 - 12 7 - 6 +2.2      +2.8 100 -0.6 195 74.5 42 +2.6 122 +5.7 7
140 Fresno St. 0.3%   10 - 13 5 - 8 +1.2      -1.9 220 +3.1 86 71.5 102 -0.1 161 +2.5 8
236 San Jose St. 0.0%   5 - 18 1 - 12 -4.3      -0.9 189 -3.3 281 62.7 330 -5.7 255 -12.6 12
349 Air Force 0.0%   3 - 21 0 - 13 -12.5      -8.7 352 -3.8 289 64.7 289 -11.9 340 -12.3 11


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Tue, Feb 10 124 UNLV 82 236 San Jose St. 75   
Tue, Feb 10 140 Fresno St. 78 35 Utah St. 91   
Tue, Feb 10 349 Air Force 74 103 Colorado St. 91   
Wed, Feb 11 68 Grand Canyon 64 49 New Mexico 70   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Fri, Feb 13 58 Boise St. 83 124 UNLV 73 83%   
Sat, Feb 14 66 Nevada 67 43 San Diego St. 74 75%   
Sat, Feb 14 103 Colorado St. 73 106 Wyoming 69 63%   
Sat, Feb 14 86 Memphis 69 35 Utah St. 80 85%   
Sat, Feb 14 68 Grand Canyon 74 236 San Jose St. 64 81%   
Sat, Feb 14 349 Air Force 60 140 Fresno St. 77 93%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Utah St. 1.4 70.4 23.6 4.5 1.2 0.3 0.1
San Diego St. 1.8 44.8 39.7 10.2 3.6 1.4 0.3
New Mexico 2.9 7.9 23.6 43.4 17.4 6.4 1.3 0.0
Boise St. 5.4 0.0 0.9 5.3 15.5 24.7 43.5 7.6 1.8 0.5 0.1
Nevada 3.7 3.8 12.1 28.9 29.9 17.8 6.9 0.5 0.0 0.0
Grand Canyon 4.3 1.0 5.1 17.9 33.7 29.7 11.1 1.3 0.2 0.0
Colorado St. 8.0 0.3 1.4 7.7 28.9 26.5 21.0 14.2 0.1
Wyoming 8.7 0.0 0.4 2.4 12.7 23.8 29.2 31.5 0.1
UNLV 7.1 0.0 0.3 1.6 4.6 14.2 47.6 23.1 7.5 1.2
Fresno St. 8.5 0.1 0.7 3.7 16.2 27.4 30.1 21.9 0.0
San Jose St. 11.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 95.5 2.9
Air Force 11.9 0.0 13.1 86.9

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Utah St. 16 - 4 25 - 5 0.1 1.4 6.4 18.7 31.6 30.1 11.7
San Diego St. 16 - 4 21 - 8 0.1 1.1 5.3 15.2 26.2 29.1 18.0 5.0
New Mexico 14 - 6 22 - 8 1.2 7.9 25.4 36.1 23.6 5.8
Boise St. 11 - 9 18 - 11 0.0 0.8 4.0 15.0 28.9 30.8 17.1 3.4
Nevada 13 - 7 21 - 10 0.0 1.3 8.2 21.3 31.1 25.4 10.6 2.1
Grand Canyon 13 - 7 20 - 11 0.0 0.3 2.7 11.9 29.1 37.3 16.1 2.6
Colorado St. 9 - 11 17 - 13 0.8 5.5 16.2 27.2 27.3 16.4 5.6 0.8
Wyoming 8 - 12 16 - 14 0.1 2.7 12.4 28.4 30.8 18.9 5.9 0.8
UNLV 9 - 11 13 - 17 2.2 18.7 33.5 28.4 12.9 3.8 0.6 0.0
Fresno St. 8 - 12 13 - 17 0.4 7.0 26.5 33.3 22.5 8.3 2.0 0.2
San Jose St. 3 - 17 7 - 23 8.9 30.5 32.3 19.1 7.4 1.6 0.1
Air Force 1 - 19 4 - 27 52.5 36.5 9.9 1.0 0.1 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Utah St. 70.4% 48.7 18.6 2.6 0.5 0.0 0.0
San Diego St. 44.8% 24.7 17.0 2.5 0.4 0.0 0.0
New Mexico 7.9% 1.9 3.6 1.9 0.4 0.0 0.0
Boise St. 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Nevada 3.8% 0.8 1.6 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.0
Grand Canyon 1.0% 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Colorado St.
Wyoming
UNLV
Fresno St.
San Jose St.
Air Force


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Utah St. 95.3% 36.8% 58.6% 7   0.0 0.2 1.4 2.8 5.8 16.5 21.5 21.9 15.8 7.4 2.0 4.7 92.6%
San Diego St. 58.6% 23.3% 35.3% 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.0 2.4 6.4 11.7 17.9 18.3 0.1 41.4 46.0%
New Mexico 48.4% 15.7% 32.7% 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 2.4 6.0 15.2 23.4 0.2 51.6 38.8%
Boise St. 27.5% 8.0% 19.5% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.2 7.8 16.3 0.1 72.5 21.2%
Nevada 11.9% 7.2% 4.7% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.9 9.0 0.3 88.1 5.1%
Grand Canyon 8.7% 6.2% 2.5% 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 6.6 0.5 0.0 91.3 2.7%
Colorado St. 1.2% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 98.8 0.1%
Wyoming 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 99.1 0.0%
UNLV 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 99.5 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 99.7 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.5 7.7 42.2 39.9 9.7 0.5
1st Round 100.0% 2.3 13.3 52.5 30.2 3.9 0.1
2nd Round 74.8% 1.0 25.3 52.2 20.6 1.9 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 21.6% 0.2 78.4 20.7 0.9 0.0
Elite Eight 6.6% 0.1 93.4 6.5 0.1
Final Four 1.8% 0.0 98.2 1.7 0.0
Final Game 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Champion 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Utah St. 95.3% 1.9% 94.6% 54.1% 14.7% 4.8% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
San Diego St. 58.6% 13.8% 52.1% 21.4% 4.2% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
New Mexico 48.4% 18.6% 38.8% 14.0% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Boise St. 27.5% 13.0% 19.8% 5.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nevada 11.9% 3.9% 9.5% 2.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Grand Canyon 8.7% 2.2% 7.4% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Colorado St. 1.2% 0.1% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wyoming 0.9% 0.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNLV 0.6% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%