Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
51 Utah St. 42.9%   11   6 - 1 0 - 0 22 - 8 14 - 6 +10.5      +5.9 57 +4.6 53 70.0 172 +13.3 41 0.0 1
52 Boise St. 41.5%   5 - 2 0 - 0 20 - 9 14 - 6 +10.3      +3.4 89 +6.9 22 65.7 281 +12.1 49 0.0 1
56 San Diego St. 31.0%   4 - 3 0 - 0 19 - 10 14 - 6 +10.0      +5.5 60 +4.5 57 69.1 193 +6.3 94 0.0 1
72 Colorado St. 16.7%   7 - 2 0 - 0 21 - 9 13 - 7 +7.9      +9.0 21 -1.1 203 61.6 355 +8.4 76 0.0 1
84 New Mexico 11.6%   6 - 2 0 - 0 19 - 11 12 - 8 +6.5      +2.7 105 +3.8 68 78.8 15 +7.9 77 0.0 1
99 Grand Canyon 5.7%   5 - 4 0 - 0 18 - 13 11 - 9 +5.2      +0.6 146 +4.6 56 70.3 164 +1.0 152 0.0 1
106 Nevada 4.4%   6 - 3 0 - 0 18 - 13 10 - 10 +4.3      +2.3 114 +2.0 108 67.2 249 +5.9 98 0.0 1
107 Wyoming 4.1%   6 - 2 0 - 0 18 - 12 10 - 10 +4.3      +1.9 122 +2.4 96 71.3 140 +4.1 114 0.0 1
132 UNLV 1.7%   3 - 5 0 - 0 13 - 17 9 - 11 +1.9      +2.6 109 -0.7 186 79.5 12 -3.3 217 0.0 1
182 San Jose St. 0.3%   3 - 5 0 - 0 11 - 19 7 - 13 -1.6      -0.9 187 -0.8 192 64.8 302 -2.3 203 0.0 1
183 Fresno St. 0.3%   5 - 4 0 - 0 12 - 18 7 - 13 -1.7      -2.2 229 +0.5 152 74.4 64 -2.2 202 0.0 1
331 Air Force 0.0%   3 - 7 0 - 0 5 - 26 2 - 18 -10.2      -6.5 338 -3.6 288 62.5 348 -10.1 308 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Dec 3 56 San Diego St. 77 83 Utah Valley 66   
Wed, Dec 3 331 Air Force 65 137 Pacific 80   
Thu, Dec 4 79 South Florida 74 51 Utah St. 61   
Fri, Dec 5 264 San Diego 69 182 San Jose St. 86   
Sat, Dec 6 52 Boise St. 77 55 Butler 68   
Sat, Dec 6 63 Colorado 86 72 Colorado St. 91   
Sat, Dec 6 84 New Mexico 98 75 Santa Clara 71   
Sat, Dec 6 99 Grand Canyon 78 44 Oklahoma St. 84   
Sat, Dec 6 20 Arkansas 82 183 Fresno St. 58   
Sat, Dec 6 268 Dartmouth 80 107 Wyoming 93   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sun, Dec 7 85 Stanford 87 132 UNLV 80 77%   
Sun, Dec 7 106 Nevada 76 151 Washington St. 75 55%   
Sun, Dec 7 181 Charlotte 67 51 Utah St. 76 80%   
Sun, Dec 7 331 Air Force 61 197 Navy 72 84%   
Tue, Dec 9 280 Long Beach St. 66 182 San Jose St. 74 77%   
Tue, Dec 9 270 South Dakota 74 107 Wyoming 87 88%   
Tue, Dec 9 72 Colorado St. 85 268 Dartmouth 68 93%   
Wed, Dec 10 84 New Mexico 74 42 Virginia Commonwealth 82 78%   
Wed, Dec 10 52 Boise St. 80 133 Duquesne 68 86%   
Wed, Dec 10 261 Cal St. Northridge 79 183 Fresno St. 80 53%   
Wed, Dec 10 214 Lamar 59 56 San Diego St. 76 93%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Utah St. 3.1 30.3 20.2 14.8 11.0 8.2 6.0 4.3 2.8 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0
Boise St. 3.3 27.7 20.0 15.0 11.2 8.7 6.2 4.7 3.3 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.0
San Diego St. 3.3 27.5 19.4 15.5 11.8 8.7 6.7 4.7 3.0 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.0
Colorado St. 4.0 15.4 16.2 15.9 14.4 11.9 9.4 6.8 4.9 3.1 1.5 0.5 0.0
New Mexico 4.9 9.7 11.3 12.4 13.3 12.7 12.0 10.5 7.9 5.8 3.1 1.3 0.1
Grand Canyon 5.6 5.8 8.4 10.7 12.0 12.9 12.8 11.7 10.4 8.1 4.8 2.3 0.2
Nevada 6.1 4.0 6.6 8.8 10.3 11.9 13.0 13.2 12.2 9.8 6.6 3.1 0.3
Wyoming 6.3 3.5 5.9 7.9 9.7 11.4 12.7 13.5 13.1 10.9 7.2 3.6 0.4
UNLV 7.6 1.3 2.4 3.7 5.7 7.6 10.0 12.4 14.8 16.8 14.5 9.3 1.4
San Jose St. 9.2 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.8 3.3 4.8 7.3 11.0 15.5 23.4 25.8 5.6
Fresno St. 9.2 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.7 3.0 4.8 7.3 11.0 16.1 23.3 25.7 5.6
Air Force 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.5 5.0 17.0 75.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Utah St. 14 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.8 3.4 5.7 7.7 10.5 12.8 14.1 13.6 12.1 8.7 5.1 2.3 0.5
Boise St. 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.3 4.0 5.7 8.5 10.8 13.2 13.8 13.4 11.4 7.9 4.6 1.8 0.5
San Diego St. 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.0 3.6 6.0 8.6 11.4 13.5 14.1 13.3 11.3 7.8 4.5 1.7 0.4
Colorado St. 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.1 3.6 5.9 8.9 11.8 14.1 14.6 13.1 11.0 7.2 3.9 1.8 0.5 0.1
New Mexico 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.2 4.1 6.6 9.1 11.7 13.5 13.6 12.6 9.8 7.2 4.4 2.3 0.9 0.3 0.0
Grand Canyon 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.7 3.5 5.9 8.8 11.1 12.9 13.8 13.1 10.7 8.1 5.0 2.5 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
Nevada 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.5 4.8 7.6 10.3 12.8 13.7 13.3 11.6 9.2 6.1 3.7 1.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Wyoming 10 - 10 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 2.9 5.3 8.1 11.2 13.4 13.6 12.9 10.7 8.6 5.6 3.0 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
UNLV 9 - 11 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.9 3.8 7.1 10.4 13.0 13.8 13.4 11.8 9.4 6.4 4.1 2.2 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
San Jose St. 7 - 13 0.2 1.1 3.5 7.0 11.0 14.2 14.8 14.1 12.0 8.8 6.0 3.8 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Fresno St. 7 - 13 0.2 1.2 3.6 7.0 10.9 13.9 15.4 14.2 12.0 8.7 6.0 3.5 1.9 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Air Force 2 - 18 14.4 24.2 23.6 17.8 10.5 5.4 2.6 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Utah St. 30.3% 20.6 7.5 1.9 0.4 0.0 0.0
Boise St. 27.7% 18.3 7.3 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
San Diego St. 27.5% 18.5 6.8 1.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Colorado St. 15.4% 8.9 4.7 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
New Mexico 9.7% 5.4 3.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Grand Canyon 5.8% 2.9 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.0
Nevada 4.0% 2.0 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
Wyoming 3.5% 1.8 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
UNLV 1.3% 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
San Jose St. 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Fresno St. 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Air Force


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Utah St. 42.9% 22.4% 20.5% 11   0.1 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.2 2.2 3.0 3.9 6.0 9.9 14.0 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 57.1 26.4%
Boise St. 41.5% 21.6% 19.9% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.8 2.9 3.9 6.6 9.7 13.1 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 58.5 25.4%
San Diego St. 31.0% 20.4% 10.7% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.4 2.2 3.5 6.6 13.4 2.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 69.0 13.4%
Colorado St. 16.7% 11.7% 5.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 3.1 8.9 2.0 0.1 0.0 83.3 5.7%
New Mexico 11.6% 8.5% 3.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.8 6.0 2.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 88.4 3.4%
Grand Canyon 5.7% 5.4% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.5 2.1 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 94.3 0.3%
Nevada 4.4% 4.0% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.0 1.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 95.6 0.4%
Wyoming 4.1% 3.8% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.9 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 95.9 0.3%
UNLV 1.7% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 98.3 0.1%
San Jose St. 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 99.7 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Utah St. 42.9% 8.1% 38.9% 18.2% 4.9% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Boise St. 41.5% 7.4% 37.6% 17.0% 4.3% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
San Diego St. 31.0% 5.0% 28.6% 11.9% 2.9% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Colorado St. 16.7% 2.9% 15.2% 4.9% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
New Mexico 11.6% 1.9% 10.5% 3.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Grand Canyon 5.7% 0.2% 5.6% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nevada 4.4% 0.3% 4.3% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wyoming 4.1% 0.2% 4.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNLV 1.7% 0.1% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.6 48.5 43.1 8.0 0.4
1st Round 100.0% 1.5 0.0 58.0 37.2 4.6 0.2
2nd Round 50.5% 0.6 49.6 42.7 7.5 0.2 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 13.8% 0.1 86.2 13.4 0.4 0.0
Elite Eight 4.3% 0.0 95.7 4.3 0.0
Final Four 1.2% 0.0 98.8 1.2
Final Game 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Champion 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1