Preseason Rankings
San Diego St.
Mountain West
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+10.0#47
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.7#260
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.8#97
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+7.1#13
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.2% 1.3% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 3.1% 3.4% 0.5%
Top 4 Seed 9.0% 9.8% 2.2%
Top 6 Seed 15.8% 17.2% 5.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 44.5% 47.1% 24.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 29.4% 31.7% 13.9%
Average Seed 7.7 7.6 9.0
.500 or above 87.1% 89.4% 68.9%
.500 or above in Conference 88.8% 90.0% 79.2%
Conference Champion 28.5% 30.1% 15.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.3% 0.9%
First Four5.1% 5.3% 3.8%
First Round42.0% 44.6% 22.0%
Second Round24.4% 26.2% 10.9%
Sweet Sixteen10.6% 11.5% 3.4%
Elite Eight4.8% 5.2% 1.3%
Final Four2.0% 2.2% 0.4%
Championship Game0.8% 0.9% 0.1%
National Champion0.3% 0.4% 0.0%

Next Game: UC San Diego (Home) - 88.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 22 - 4
Quad 24 - 36 - 8
Quad 37 - 213 - 10
Quad 47 - 120 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 162   UC San Diego W 73-60 89%    
  Nov 18, 2024 6   Gonzaga L 70-74 36%    
  Nov 26, 2024 13   Creighton L 66-71 34%    
  Nov 27, 2024 34   Oregon L 67-68 46%    
  Nov 30, 2024 19   Texas A&M L 66-69 41%    
  Dec 04, 2024 250   @ Fresno St. W 70-59 83%    
  Dec 07, 2024 282   San Diego W 80-61 95%    
  Dec 11, 2024 163   California Baptist W 70-57 86%    
  Dec 21, 2024 109   California W 72-66 70%    
  Dec 28, 2024 81   Utah St. W 73-67 69%    
  Jan 04, 2025 63   @ Boise St. L 65-67 44%    
  Jan 07, 2025 229   Air Force W 71-55 92%    
  Jan 11, 2025 70   @ New Mexico L 73-74 46%    
  Jan 14, 2025 84   Colorado St. W 68-62 69%    
  Jan 18, 2025 95   UNLV W 69-62 72%    
  Jan 21, 2025 229   @ Air Force W 68-58 81%    
  Jan 25, 2025 75   @ Nevada L 66-67 48%    
  Jan 28, 2025 160   San Jose St. W 73-60 86%    
  Feb 01, 2025 177   Wyoming W 75-61 87%    
  Feb 08, 2025 84   @ Colorado St. L 65-66 50%    
  Feb 11, 2025 160   @ San Jose St. W 70-63 71%    
  Feb 15, 2025 63   Boise St. W 68-64 64%    
  Feb 18, 2025 250   Fresno St. W 73-56 92%    
  Feb 22, 2025 81   @ Utah St. L 69-70 49%    
  Feb 25, 2025 70   New Mexico W 76-71 65%    
  Mar 01, 2025 177   @ Wyoming W 72-64 74%    
  Mar 04, 2025 95   @ UNLV W 66-65 53%    
  Mar 08, 2025 75   Nevada W 69-64 67%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.3 6.2 7.2 6.2 3.6 1.0 28.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.7 6.1 4.4 1.5 0.2 18.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.9 5.0 5.2 2.2 0.4 0.0 15.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.3 3.7 1.2 0.1 0.0 11.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.5 2.7 0.7 0.0 9.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.6 1.8 0.5 0.0 7.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 4.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.8 3.0 4.4 5.8 7.7 9.7 11.1 12.0 11.8 11.0 8.7 6.4 3.6 1.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.0    1.0
19-1 100.0% 3.6    3.5 0.0
18-2 96.6% 6.2    5.6 0.6
17-3 82.8% 7.2    5.4 1.7 0.1
16-4 56.7% 6.2    3.4 2.4 0.4 0.0
15-5 27.7% 3.3    1.1 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0
14-6 7.6% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 28.5% 28.5 20.3 6.6 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.0% 99.5% 67.2% 32.3% 2.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.5%
19-1 3.6% 99.3% 58.0% 41.3% 3.3 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.3%
18-2 6.4% 96.5% 49.5% 47.0% 4.8 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.3 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 93.1%
17-3 8.7% 90.3% 39.5% 50.7% 6.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.8 83.9%
16-4 11.0% 79.6% 32.2% 47.4% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.3 0.2 2.2 69.9%
15-5 11.8% 60.1% 25.3% 34.9% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.6 2.0 0.4 0.0 4.7 46.6%
14-6 12.0% 40.7% 18.0% 22.8% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 2.1 0.5 0.0 7.1 27.7%
13-7 11.1% 24.9% 13.3% 11.7% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 8.3 13.4%
12-8 9.7% 13.9% 9.4% 4.5% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.3 4.9%
11-9 7.7% 8.1% 6.1% 1.9% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.1 2.0%
10-10 5.8% 4.7% 4.4% 0.4% 12.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.6 0.4%
9-11 4.4% 3.0% 2.9% 0.1% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.2 0.1%
8-12 3.0% 1.6% 1.6% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0
7-13 1.8% 1.1% 1.1% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8
6-14 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 1.0
5-15 0.6% 0.6
4-16 0.3% 0.3
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 44.5% 21.3% 23.2% 7.7 1.2 1.9 2.4 3.4 3.2 3.7 3.3 3.8 4.6 5.9 8.2 2.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 55.5 29.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.4 64.6 28.9 6.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.7 41.4 51.4 7.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 2.0 28.1 45.6 26.3