Creighton
Big East
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.3#17
Expected Predictive Rating+5.3#105
Pace69.9#161
Improvement+0.1#154

Offense
Total Offense+8.3#16
First Shot+9.8#10
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#261
Layup/Dunks+10.4#5
2 Pt Jumpshots-6.2#363
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#131
Freethrows+4.1#24
Improvement-0.6#279

Defense
Total Defense+6.0#35
First Shot+5.9#35
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#182
Layups/Dunks+3.2#84
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#180
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#280
Freethrows+5.3#6
Improvement+0.7#85
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.8% 0.9% 0.2%
#1 Seed 4.1% 4.8% 1.4%
Top 2 Seed 10.2% 11.7% 4.2%
Top 4 Seed 26.7% 29.9% 14.1%
Top 6 Seed 44.0% 48.1% 27.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 78.8% 82.3% 64.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 75.4% 79.3% 61.0%
Average Seed 6.0 5.8 6.9
.500 or above 93.8% 95.9% 85.6%
.500 or above in Conference 87.1% 89.0% 79.5%
Conference Champion 14.9% 16.2% 9.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.4% 1.1%
First Four4.2% 3.8% 6.1%
First Round76.9% 80.6% 61.9%
Second Round54.7% 58.2% 40.7%
Sweet Sixteen27.5% 29.8% 18.3%
Elite Eight13.3% 14.6% 8.0%
Final Four6.0% 6.7% 3.1%
Championship Game2.7% 3.0% 1.3%
National Champion1.2% 1.3% 0.5%

Next Game: Nebraska (Home) - 80.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 7
Quad 26 - 212 - 10
Quad 36 - 118 - 10
Quad 44 - 022 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 191   UT Rio Grande Valley W 99-86 95%     1 - 0 +8.6 +13.4 -5.9
  Nov 10, 2024 342   Fairleigh Dickinson W 96-70 99%     2 - 0 +10.9 +3.3 +4.9
  Nov 13, 2024 357   Houston Christian W 78-43 99%     3 - 0 +17.8 -1.3 +20.4
  Nov 16, 2024 215   UMKC W 79-56 96%     4 - 0 +17.3 +4.0 +13.2
  Nov 22, 2024 65   Nebraska W 78-69 80%    
  Nov 26, 2024 62   San Diego St. W 72-66 70%    
  Nov 27, 2024 23   Texas A&M W 73-72 52%    
  Dec 04, 2024 6   Kansas L 75-76 45%    
  Dec 07, 2024 97   UNLV W 79-67 86%    
  Dec 14, 2024 9   @ Alabama L 79-85 30%    
  Dec 18, 2024 126   @ Georgetown W 79-70 78%    
  Dec 21, 2024 69   Villanova W 77-68 80%    
  Dec 31, 2024 16   St. John's W 78-75 60%    
  Jan 03, 2025 15   @ Marquette L 73-76 38%    
  Jan 11, 2025 85   @ Butler W 77-72 66%    
  Jan 14, 2025 77   Providence W 73-63 81%    
  Jan 18, 2025 2   @ Connecticut L 67-76 22%    
  Jan 21, 2025 111   @ DePaul W 78-71 74%    
  Jan 25, 2025 88   Seton Hall W 69-58 84%    
  Jan 29, 2025 36   Xavier W 80-74 69%    
  Feb 01, 2025 69   @ Villanova W 74-71 61%    
  Feb 05, 2025 77   @ Providence W 70-66 64%    
  Feb 08, 2025 15   Marquette W 76-73 60%    
  Feb 11, 2025 2   Connecticut L 70-73 40%    
  Feb 16, 2025 16   @ St. John's L 75-78 39%    
  Feb 23, 2025 126   Georgetown W 82-67 90%    
  Feb 26, 2025 111   DePaul W 81-68 87%    
  Mar 01, 2025 36   @ Xavier L 76-77 49%    
  Mar 04, 2025 88   @ Seton Hall W 66-61 68%    
  Mar 08, 2025 85   Butler W 80-69 82%    
Projected Record 21 - 9 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.9 3.8 4.2 3.1 1.2 0.2 14.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.0 5.2 6.7 5.0 1.8 0.3 21.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.2 6.5 6.0 2.7 0.5 0.0 19.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.7 5.7 4.2 1.3 0.1 16.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.2 4.3 2.4 0.5 0.0 11.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 2.4 2.7 1.1 0.2 7.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 1.6 1.8 0.7 0.1 4.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.1 3.6 5.4 7.5 10.0 11.8 13.2 13.1 11.5 9.3 5.9 3.4 1.2 0.2 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 1.2    1.2 0.0
18-2 91.8% 3.1    2.5 0.6 0.0
17-3 70.2% 4.2    2.7 1.4 0.1
16-4 40.4% 3.8    1.8 1.6 0.3 0.0
15-5 16.3% 1.9    0.5 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.0
14-6 4.0% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 14.9% 14.9 9.1 4.7 1.0 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 100.0% 54.5% 45.5% 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.2% 100.0% 48.6% 51.4% 1.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 3.4% 100.0% 37.3% 62.7% 1.9 1.3 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 5.9% 100.0% 30.3% 69.6% 2.6 1.2 1.8 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
16-4 9.3% 100.0% 24.3% 75.7% 3.6 0.6 1.7 2.5 2.3 1.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 11.5% 99.5% 18.6% 80.9% 4.7 0.2 0.6 2.0 2.9 2.6 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.4%
14-6 13.1% 98.4% 14.8% 83.6% 6.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.9 2.6 2.6 2.4 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 98.1%
13-7 13.2% 93.9% 11.8% 82.1% 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.3 2.4 2.3 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.8 93.1%
12-8 11.8% 86.2% 7.5% 78.7% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.7 2.1 2.1 1.6 1.0 0.1 1.6 85.1%
11-9 10.0% 69.1% 5.7% 63.4% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.7 1.6 1.3 0.1 3.1 67.2%
10-10 7.5% 47.4% 3.6% 43.8% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.1 0.1 4.0 45.4%
9-11 5.4% 21.6% 1.7% 19.9% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 4.3 20.2%
8-12 3.6% 6.1% 1.1% 5.0% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.3 5.0%
7-13 2.1% 1.2% 0.7% 0.5% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.5%
6-14 1.0% 1.0% 0.7% 0.2% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.2%
5-15 0.5% 0.5
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 78.8% 13.5% 65.2% 6.0 4.1 6.1 7.6 8.9 8.9 8.4 8.6 8.0 7.2 5.9 4.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 21.2 75.4%