Creighton
Big East
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.5#31
Expected Predictive Rating+14.8#31
Pace69.5#136
Improvement+3.8#40

Offense
Total Offense+7.0#38
First Shot+10.0#6
After Offensive Rebound-3.0#333
Layup/Dunks+4.5#37
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#360
3 Pt Jumpshots+9.6#2
Freethrows+0.3#160
Improvement+1.8#98

Defense
Total Defense+7.5#24
First Shot+8.0#11
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#231
Layups/Dunks+3.2#67
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#342
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#88
Freethrows+5.3#1
Improvement+2.1#76
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 5.7% 6.9% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 24.2% 27.4% 8.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 96.8% 97.4% 94.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 96.1% 96.8% 93.1%
Average Seed 7.4 7.2 8.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 9.6% 11.2% 1.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.4% 0.3% 1.0%
First Round96.6% 97.2% 93.7%
Second Round57.0% 58.7% 48.9%
Sweet Sixteen18.6% 20.0% 11.7%
Elite Eight7.3% 7.9% 4.7%
Final Four2.5% 2.7% 1.5%
Championship Game0.8% 0.9% 0.5%
National Champion0.2% 0.3% 0.1%

Next Game: Georgetown (Home) - 82.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 42 - 4
Quad 1b4 - 26 - 6
Quad 26 - 312 - 10
Quad 36 - 018 - 10
Quad 45 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 262   UT Rio Grande Valley W 99-86 97%     1 - 0 +5.0 +13.7 -9.8
  Nov 10, 2024 318   Fairleigh Dickinson W 96-70 98%     2 - 0 +14.2 +8.7 +2.8
  Nov 13, 2024 295   Houston Christian W 78-43 98%     3 - 0 +25.0 +2.7 +23.7
  Nov 16, 2024 245   UMKC W 79-56 97%     4 - 0 +15.7 +3.8 +11.7
  Nov 22, 2024 48   Nebraska L 63-74 72%     4 - 1 -2.5 -6.9 +4.6
  Nov 26, 2024 51   San Diego St. L 53-71 64%     4 - 2 -7.3 -6.4 -2.2
  Nov 27, 2024 20   Texas A&M L 73-77 44%     4 - 3 +12.0 +9.0 +3.1
  Nov 30, 2024 95   Notre Dame W 80-76 81%     5 - 3 +9.1 +8.2 +0.9
  Dec 04, 2024 19   Kansas W 76-63 53%     6 - 3 +26.6 +12.3 +14.3
  Dec 07, 2024 98   UNLV W 83-65 87%     7 - 3 +20.4 +17.1 +4.2
  Dec 14, 2024 6   @ Alabama L 75-83 24%     7 - 4 +14.0 +4.1 +10.5
  Dec 18, 2024 73   @ Georgetown L 57-81 66%     7 - 5 0 - 1 -13.7 -6.3 -8.2
  Dec 21, 2024 43   Villanova W 86-79 69%     8 - 5 1 - 1 +16.2 +26.1 -9.0
  Dec 31, 2024 14   St. John's W 57-56 47%     9 - 5 2 - 1 +16.3 +0.4 +16.0
  Jan 03, 2025 29   @ Marquette L 71-79 39%     9 - 6 2 - 2 +9.3 +5.6 +3.8
  Jan 11, 2025 66   @ Butler W 80-76 64%     10 - 6 3 - 2 +14.9 +11.1 +3.8
  Jan 14, 2025 79   Providence W 84-64 82%     11 - 6 4 - 2 +24.7 +10.3 +14.1
  Jan 18, 2025 32   @ Connecticut W 68-63 42%     12 - 6 5 - 2 +21.7 +14.6 +8.1
  Jan 21, 2025 120   @ DePaul W 73-49 81%     13 - 6 6 - 2 +29.1 +7.1 +23.4
  Jan 25, 2025 167   Seton Hall W 79-54 94%     14 - 6 7 - 2 +22.1 +16.6 +8.2
  Jan 29, 2025 42   Xavier W 86-77 69%     15 - 6 8 - 2 +18.4 +20.6 -2.0
  Feb 01, 2025 43   @ Villanova W 62-60 51%     16 - 6 9 - 2 +16.3 -4.4 +20.8
  Feb 05, 2025 79   @ Providence W 80-69 67%     17 - 6 10 - 2 +20.8 +10.1 +10.7
  Feb 08, 2025 29   Marquette W 77-67 59%     18 - 6 11 - 2 +22.2 +22.8 +1.0
  Feb 11, 2025 32   Connecticut L 66-70 61%     18 - 7 11 - 3 +7.6 -0.4 +7.8
  Feb 16, 2025 14   @ St. John's L 73-79 28%     18 - 8 11 - 4 +14.4 +11.7 +3.0
  Feb 23, 2025 73   Georgetown W 75-66 83%    
  Feb 26, 2025 120   DePaul W 80-66 92%    
  Mar 01, 2025 42   @ Xavier L 74-75 48%    
  Mar 04, 2025 167   @ Seton Hall W 73-61 87%    
  Mar 08, 2025 66   Butler W 80-71 81%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 2.0 7.6 9.6 1st
2nd 0.0 1.4 18.0 41.9 19.3 80.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.6 4.8 8.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.1 0.7 5.7 22.8 43.9 26.8 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 28.2% 7.6    1.3 6.2
15-5 4.6% 2.0    0.0 1.0 1.0
14-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total 9.6% 9.6 1.3 7.2 1.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 26.8% 99.7% 22.1% 77.6% 6.0 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.1 4.0 5.7 7.5 3.5 0.7 0.1 0.1 99.6%
15-5 43.9% 98.1% 19.5% 78.6% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.3 5.5 12.1 13.5 7.4 1.7 0.1 0.8 97.7%
14-6 22.8% 93.5% 13.8% 79.8% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.3 7.0 7.0 2.9 0.3 1.5 92.5%
13-7 5.7% 88.3% 11.3% 77.0% 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.5 1.8 1.2 0.2 0.7 86.8%
12-8 0.7% 83.8% 7.4% 76.5% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 82.5%
11-9 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 96.8% 18.3% 78.5% 7.4 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.6 6.5 12.0 23.2 25.6 17.1 6.1 0.6 3.2 96.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.9% 100.0% 3.9 0.2 5.2 27.9 41.6 19.5 5.1 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 6.2% 100.0% 5.9 1.1 7.1 25.5 34.0 26.9 5.0 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 9.1% 99.9% 6.7 0.2 1.9 11.0 27.4 38.5 17.7 3.2