UMKC
Summit League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.8#245
Expected Predictive Rating-8.1#299
Pace63.4#306
Improvement+0.5#165

Offense
Total Offense-4.0#285
First Shot-6.1#331
After Offensive Rebound+2.1#60
Layup/Dunks-10.4#364
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#249
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#55
Freethrows+0.9#120
Improvement-0.2#193

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#191
First Shot+0.4#172
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#283
Layups/Dunks-1.5#238
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#101
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#121
Freethrows-0.5#220
Improvement+0.7#147
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.1% 3.2% 1.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 12.8% 1.7% 14.7%
First Four2.1% 3.2% 1.9%
First Round1.3% 1.9% 1.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Dakota St. (Away) - 14.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 32 - 73 - 12
Quad 46 - 79 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2024 9   @ Iowa St. L 56-82 2%     0 - 1 -4.8 -2.1 -4.2
  Nov 16, 2024 31   @ Creighton L 56-79 3%     0 - 2 -6.0 -8.3 +2.5
  Nov 22, 2024 247   American L 60-64 50%     0 - 3 -8.8 -13.0 +4.1
  Nov 23, 2024 267   Albany L 65-67 53%     0 - 4 -7.6 -4.7 -3.1
  Nov 30, 2024 217   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 59-80 34%     0 - 5 -21.6 -18.2 -1.4
  Dec 04, 2024 253   Idaho L 77-82 61%     0 - 6 -12.7 -1.4 -11.5
  Dec 07, 2024 188   @ Montana St. L 62-74 29%     0 - 7 -11.0 -2.0 -10.5
  Dec 10, 2024 284   @ Portland W 69-64 49%     1 - 7 +0.6 -4.2 +5.1
  Dec 14, 2024 301   Bowling Green W 85-77 71%     2 - 7 -2.4 +11.6 -13.6
  Dec 17, 2024 115   @ Wichita St. W 74-64 17%     3 - 7 +15.4 +9.2 +6.8
  Dec 21, 2024 148   East Tennessee St. W 73-66 39%     4 - 7 +5.2 +12.7 -6.3
  Jan 02, 2025 243   South Dakota W 68-54 59%     5 - 7 1 - 0 +7.0 -6.4 +14.6
  Jan 04, 2025 322   Oral Roberts W 90-67 76%     6 - 7 2 - 0 +11.0 +13.7 -1.3
  Jan 08, 2025 187   @ Nebraska Omaha L 58-77 29%     6 - 8 2 - 1 -18.0 -14.2 -4.9
  Jan 16, 2025 136   @ North Dakota St. L 64-71 21%     6 - 9 2 - 2 -3.1 -9.3 +5.9
  Jan 18, 2025 278   @ North Dakota L 72-76 47%     6 - 10 2 - 3 -7.9 +0.8 -9.2
  Jan 23, 2025 111   South Dakota St. L 64-65 30%     6 - 11 2 - 4 -0.3 -6.0 +5.6
  Jan 25, 2025 126   St. Thomas L 65-68 35%     6 - 12 2 - 5 -3.8 -6.2 +2.1
  Jan 30, 2025 315   @ Denver L 68-69 57%     6 - 13 2 - 6 -7.6 -2.2 -5.5
  Feb 01, 2025 322   @ Oral Roberts L 67-73 58%     6 - 14 2 - 7 -12.9 -5.1 -8.4
  Feb 06, 2025 136   North Dakota St. L 72-78 37%     6 - 15 2 - 8 -7.2 +3.3 -11.4
  Feb 08, 2025 278   North Dakota W 80-69 66%     7 - 15 3 - 8 +2.0 +4.6 -1.8
  Feb 13, 2025 243   @ South Dakota L 72-79 39%     7 - 16 3 - 9 -8.9 -11.5 +3.1
  Feb 19, 2025 187   Nebraska Omaha L 66-78 48%     7 - 17 3 - 10 -16.1 -6.9 -10.2
  Feb 23, 2025 111   @ South Dakota St. L 66-77 15%    
  Feb 27, 2025 315   Denver W 70-63 76%    
  Mar 01, 2025 126   @ St. Thomas L 68-77 18%    
Projected Record 8 - 19 4 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 17.6 17.4 2.2 37.2 6th
7th 31.8 4.1 0.1 36.0 7th
8th 15.7 9.3 0.0 25.0 8th
9th 1.7 0.1 1.8 9th
Total 17.4 58.8 21.5 2.3 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10 2.3% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.1 2.2
5-11 21.5% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.7 20.8
4-12 58.8% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 1.1 57.8
3-13 17.4% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 17.2
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 16.0 2.1 98.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%
Lose Out 6.2%