Southeast Missouri St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.1#217
Expected Predictive Rating-3.3#220
Pace70.8#111
Improvement+4.7#27

Offense
Total Offense-2.9#255
First Shot+0.4#159
After Offensive Rebound-3.3#339
Layup/Dunks-1.3#228
2 Pt Jumpshots+6.4#7
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#226
Freethrows-3.1#344
Improvement+3.4#41

Defense
Total Defense-0.2#180
First Shot+0.8#148
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#281
Layups/Dunks-0.3#176
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#229
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.2#15
Freethrows-3.8#358
Improvement+1.3#123
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 34.0% 35.0% 28.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.6 15.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 87.6% 92.1% 63.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four9.8% 9.0% 14.1%
First Round29.6% 31.0% 22.1%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lindenwood (Home) - 84.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 31 - 6
Quad 417 - 518 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 94   @ Bradley L 60-88 16%     0 - 1 -20.3 -10.1 -9.9
  Nov 10, 2024 53   @ Vanderbilt L 76-85 7%     0 - 2 +4.2 +4.6 +0.0
  Nov 17, 2024 119   Chattanooga L 82-87 37%     0 - 3 -4.8 -4.8 +0.6
  Nov 21, 2024 344   @ Central Arkansas W 77-73 OT 74%     1 - 3 -5.7 -8.8 +2.6
  Nov 22, 2024 184   UNC Asheville L 64-72 43%     1 - 4 -9.3 -10.8 +1.4
  Nov 30, 2024 245   UMKC W 80-59 66%     2 - 4 +13.7 -2.3 +14.0
  Dec 05, 2024 101   @ Lipscomb L 60-78 17%     2 - 5 -11.0 -8.6 -2.7
  Dec 08, 2024 156   @ Murray St. L 53-73 28%     2 - 6 -17.0 -10.0 -9.8
  Dec 19, 2024 338   Eastern Illinois W 79-72 85%     3 - 6 1 - 0 -7.0 +9.5 -16.0
  Dec 21, 2024 234   SIU Edwardsville W 80-64 63%     4 - 6 2 - 0 +9.5 +8.8 +1.2
  Jan 02, 2025 269   @ Tennessee St. W 67-65 50%     5 - 6 3 - 0 -1.1 -9.9 +8.7
  Jan 04, 2025 306   @ Tennessee Martin L 63-66 60%     5 - 7 3 - 1 -8.8 -3.9 -5.3
  Jan 09, 2025 343   Southern Indiana W 77-66 86%     6 - 7 4 - 1 -3.8 -3.8 -0.2
  Jan 11, 2025 329   Morehead St. L 56-67 82%     6 - 8 4 - 2 -23.9 -16.4 -8.6
  Jan 14, 2025 233   Arkansas Little Rock L 71-73 63%     6 - 9 4 - 3 -8.5 -1.2 -7.3
  Jan 16, 2025 308   @ Tennessee Tech W 77-70 61%     7 - 9 5 - 3 +1.1 +5.7 -4.2
  Jan 23, 2025 335   @ Lindenwood L 68-72 70%     7 - 10 5 - 4 -12.4 -7.8 -4.5
  Jan 25, 2025 351   @ Western Illinois W 72-51 76%     8 - 10 6 - 4 +10.6 +2.5 +10.7
  Jan 30, 2025 306   Tennessee Martin W 90-79 77%     9 - 10 7 - 4 +0.1 +12.2 -12.1
  Feb 01, 2025 269   Tennessee St. W 89-87 OT 69%     10 - 10 8 - 4 -6.2 +2.5 -8.9
  Feb 06, 2025 329   @ Morehead St. W 80-51 67%     11 - 10 9 - 4 +21.2 +10.1 +13.3
  Feb 08, 2025 343   @ Southern Indiana W 79-74 74%     12 - 10 10 - 4 -4.7 +6.7 -11.1
  Feb 11, 2025 233   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 57-45 43%     13 - 10 11 - 4 +10.6 -6.6 +18.4
  Feb 15, 2025 308   Tennessee Tech W 83-69 77%     14 - 10 12 - 4 +3.0 +6.9 -3.5
  Feb 20, 2025 351   Western Illinois W 87-66 87%     15 - 10 13 - 4 +5.5 +1.1 +3.2
  Feb 22, 2025 335   Lindenwood W 76-66 84%    
  Feb 27, 2025 234   @ SIU Edwardsville L 68-70 42%    
  Mar 01, 2025 338   @ Eastern Illinois W 70-64 69%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 14.6 47.5 25.3 87.6 1st
2nd 2.6 9.2 11.9 2nd
3rd 0.6 0.6 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 3.4 23.8 47.5 25.3 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 25.3    25.3
15-5 100.0% 47.5    32.9 14.7
14-6 61.2% 14.6    1.9 9.2 3.5
13-7 5.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total 87.6% 87.6 60.0 23.8 3.7 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 25.3% 38.2% 38.2% 15.2 0.0 0.9 6.3 2.5 15.6
15-5 47.5% 35.9% 35.9% 15.8 0.1 4.0 12.9 30.5
14-6 23.8% 28.2% 28.2% 15.9 0.0 0.5 6.2 17.1
13-7 3.4% 18.5% 18.5% 15.9 0.0 0.6 2.8
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 34.0% 34.0% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 1.0 10.9 22.2 66.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 9.7% 100.0% 15.2 0.1 9.2 65.2 25.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 7.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 8.6%
Lose Out 0.8%