Arkansas Little Rock
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.9#233
Expected Predictive Rating-4.1#235
Pace67.3#202
Improvement+0.6#159

Offense
Total Offense-5.9#326
First Shot-6.2#332
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#172
Layup/Dunks-3.8#310
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#73
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#262
Freethrows-1.5#278
Improvement+1.8#102

Defense
Total Defense+2.0#113
First Shot+4.7#53
After Offensive Rebounds-2.8#343
Layups/Dunks+3.8#53
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#64
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#122
Freethrows-2.0#307
Improvement-1.2#255
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.0% 20.6% 15.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 6.5% 7.4% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four8.0% 7.8% 9.9%
First Round16.0% 16.7% 10.9%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Illinois (Home) - 87.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 32 - 32 - 6
Quad 416 - 718 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 196   @ Winthrop L 67-82 33%     0 - 1 -14.5 -14.2 +1.3
  Nov 12, 2024 97   @ Arkansas St. L 63-80 14%     0 - 2 -9.5 -2.0 -8.3
  Nov 16, 2024 208   @ Texas San Antonio W 81-64 35%     1 - 2 +17.0 +4.7 +11.8
  Nov 20, 2024 246   @ Tulsa W 71-57 43%     2 - 2 +11.8 +6.1 +7.2
  Nov 22, 2024 35   @ Arkansas L 67-79 5%     2 - 3 +3.3 -1.5 +5.8
  Nov 25, 2024 18   @ Illinois L 34-92 3%     2 - 4 -39.3 -30.2 -10.4
  Nov 27, 2024 361   Maryland Eastern Shore W 78-59 93%     3 - 4 -2.0 -1.9 +0.4
  Dec 04, 2024 344   Central Arkansas W 63-57 85%     4 - 4 -8.8 -20.0 +10.8
  Dec 15, 2024 147   Illinois-Chicago L 69-77 OT 42%     4 - 5 -9.8 -7.5 -2.1
  Dec 19, 2024 234   SIU Edwardsville W 60-56 60%     5 - 5 1 - 0 -2.5 -11.5 +9.1
  Jan 02, 2025 306   @ Tennessee Martin W 57-56 57%     6 - 5 2 - 0 -4.8 -12.2 +7.5
  Jan 04, 2025 269   @ Tennessee St. L 86-95 47%     6 - 6 2 - 1 -12.1 -1.2 -9.6
  Jan 09, 2025 329   Morehead St. L 53-59 80%     6 - 7 2 - 2 -18.9 -21.8 +2.5
  Jan 12, 2025 343   Southern Indiana W 78-58 85%     7 - 7 3 - 2 +5.2 +3.6 +3.0
  Jan 14, 2025 217   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 73-71 37%     8 - 7 4 - 2 +1.4 +1.2 +0.2
  Jan 18, 2025 308   @ Tennessee Tech W 77-71 58%     9 - 7 5 - 2 +0.1 +6.2 -5.7
  Jan 23, 2025 351   @ Western Illinois W 62-51 73%     10 - 7 6 - 2 +0.6 -9.2 +11.1
  Jan 25, 2025 335   @ Lindenwood W 78-46 67%     11 - 7 7 - 2 +23.6 +6.7 +18.0
  Jan 27, 2025 338   Eastern Illinois L 54-56 76%     11 - 8 7 - 3 -13.5 -13.7 +0.0
  Jan 30, 2025 269   Tennessee St. L 70-72 66%     11 - 9 7 - 4 -10.2 -6.1 -4.2
  Feb 01, 2025 306   Tennessee Martin W 75-57 75%     12 - 9 8 - 4 +7.1 -0.1 +7.9
  Feb 06, 2025 343   @ Southern Indiana W 74-56 71%     13 - 9 9 - 4 +8.3 +6.4 +4.3
  Feb 08, 2025 329   @ Morehead St. W 76-62 65%     14 - 9 10 - 4 +6.2 +7.7 -0.1
  Feb 11, 2025 217   Southeast Missouri St. L 45-57 57%     14 - 10 10 - 5 -17.7 -24.6 +5.6
  Feb 13, 2025 308   Tennessee Tech W 79-75 75%     15 - 10 11 - 5 -7.0 +1.6 -8.5
  Feb 20, 2025 335   Lindenwood L 92-93 OT 82%     15 - 11 11 - 6 -14.5 +0.7 -15.1
  Feb 22, 2025 351   Western Illinois W 71-59 88%    
  Feb 27, 2025 338   @ Eastern Illinois W 65-60 67%    
  Mar 01, 2025 234   @ SIU Edwardsville L 63-66 40%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 6.3 6.5 1st
2nd 0.1 14.1 17.8 32.0 2nd
3rd 0.3 16.4 34.4 51.0 3rd
4th 2.0 7.8 9.8 4th
5th 0.6 0.6 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 2.9 24.3 48.7 24.1 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 26.3% 6.3    0.3 2.5 3.5
13-7 0.4% 0.2    0.1 0.1
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total 6.5% 6.5 0.3 2.5 3.7 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 24.1% 32.3% 32.3% 15.6 0.1 2.8 4.9 16.3
13-7 48.7% 17.6% 17.6% 15.9 0.0 1.1 7.5 40.1
12-8 24.3% 13.7% 13.7% 16.0 0.1 3.2 21.0
11-9 2.9% 9.3% 9.3% 16.0 0.3 2.6
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 20.0% 20.0% 0.0% 15.8 0.1 4.0 15.9 80.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 7.8% 100.0% 15.6 0.9 36.2 62.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 5.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 8.9%
Lose Out 1.2%