Tennessee St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.7#316
Expected Predictive Rating-16.0#354
Pace75.9#33
Improvement-0.6#232

Offense
Total Offense-5.0#312
First Shot-6.1#340
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#120
Layup/Dunks+2.8#90
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#122
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.3#354
Freethrows-2.5#311
Improvement-1.0#268

Defense
Total Defense-3.7#290
First Shot-3.5#293
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#213
Layups/Dunks-2.2#258
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#156
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#213
Freethrows-1.2#268
Improvement+0.4#149
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.8% 9.3% 4.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 12.3% 21.9% 7.9%
.500 or above in Conference 46.7% 64.5% 38.5%
Conference Champion 5.0% 10.3% 2.6%
Last Place in Conference 12.0% 5.5% 15.0%
First Four5.1% 7.9% 3.8%
First Round3.2% 5.4% 2.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Morehead St. (Away) - 31.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 30 - 40 - 6
Quad 411 - 1211 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 104   @ Colorado St. L 79-87 OT 7%     0 - 1 -0.6 -0.3 +0.9
  Nov 10, 2024 161   @ Wyoming L 66-81 14%     0 - 2 -12.2 -5.3 -6.8
  Nov 13, 2024 255   Howard L 84-88 OT 37%     0 - 3 -9.1 +2.7 -11.7
  Nov 16, 2024 361   Alabama A&M W 81-71 81%     1 - 3 -8.1 -11.5 +2.0
  Nov 25, 2024 183   @ Chattanooga L 78-85 16%     1 - 4 -5.1 -2.4 -2.0
  Nov 26, 2024 178   Bryant L 85-97 23%     1 - 5 -12.9 -1.2 -9.9
  Dec 01, 2024 166   UNC Asheville L 74-92 31%     1 - 6 -21.5 -4.4 -16.5
  Dec 10, 2024 105   @ Western Kentucky L 60-84 7%     1 - 7 -16.6 -11.3 -3.5
  Dec 19, 2024 282   @ Southern Indiana L 75-77 31%     1 - 8 0 - 1 -5.7 -4.8 -0.7
  Dec 21, 2024 281   @ Morehead St. L 70-75 31%    
  Jan 02, 2025 289   Southeast Missouri St. W 76-75 54%    
  Jan 04, 2025 243   Arkansas Little Rock L 71-72 46%    
  Jan 09, 2025 351   @ Lindenwood W 75-74 53%    
  Jan 11, 2025 331   @ Western Illinois L 70-72 44%    
  Jan 16, 2025 269   SIU Edwardsville W 72-71 50%    
  Jan 18, 2025 327   Eastern Illinois W 75-71 63%    
  Jan 21, 2025 324   Tennessee Martin W 77-73 63%    
  Jan 23, 2025 328   Tennessee Tech W 77-73 64%    
  Jan 30, 2025 243   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 68-75 26%    
  Feb 01, 2025 289   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 73-78 33%    
  Feb 06, 2025 331   Western Illinois W 73-69 65%    
  Feb 08, 2025 351   Lindenwood W 78-71 73%    
  Feb 13, 2025 327   @ Eastern Illinois L 72-74 42%    
  Feb 15, 2025 269   @ SIU Edwardsville L 69-75 29%    
  Feb 18, 2025 324   @ Tennessee Martin L 74-76 41%    
  Feb 22, 2025 328   @ Tennessee Tech L 74-76 41%    
  Feb 27, 2025 281   Morehead St. W 73-72 53%    
  Mar 01, 2025 282   Southern Indiana W 76-75 53%    
Projected Record 10 - 18 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 5.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.5 2.9 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 7.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.7 3.8 2.3 0.5 0.0 8.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 4.6 2.9 0.5 0.0 9.5 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 4.9 3.8 0.6 0.0 10.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 4.1 4.8 0.8 0.0 10.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.7 5.5 1.4 0.1 11.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.9 5.1 2.0 0.1 10.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.5 4.6 2.3 0.2 10.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.5 3.8 2.1 0.3 0.0 9.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.1 2.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 7.3 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 3.0 5.1 7.9 10.3 12.1 12.9 12.8 11.1 9.0 6.3 3.9 2.1 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 97.7% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-4 85.0% 0.8    0.6 0.2 0.0
15-5 67.1% 1.4    0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-6 37.9% 1.5    0.6 0.7 0.2 0.1
13-7 11.3% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 1.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.0% 5.0 2.6 1.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.1% 32.7% 32.7% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-3 0.4% 38.3% 38.3% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2
16-4 0.9% 37.3% 37.3% 15.9 0.0 0.3 0.6
15-5 2.1% 29.3% 29.3% 16.0 0.0 0.6 1.5
14-6 3.9% 25.8% 25.8% 16.0 0.0 1.0 2.9
13-7 6.3% 17.4% 17.4% 16.0 0.0 1.1 5.2
12-8 9.0% 11.5% 11.5% 16.0 1.0 8.0
11-9 11.1% 6.3% 6.3% 16.0 0.7 10.4
10-10 12.8% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.4 12.4
9-11 12.9% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.3 12.6
8-12 12.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 12.0
7-13 10.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.3
6-14 7.9% 7.9
5-15 5.1% 5.1
4-16 3.0% 3.0
3-17 1.3% 1.3
2-18 0.5% 0.5
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 5.6 94.2 0.0%