Tennessee St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.1#297
Expected Predictive Rating-10.9#310
Pace71.8#101
Improvement-0.5#245

Offense
Total Offense-4.0#289
First Shot-5.4#315
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#104
Layup/Dunks+1.8#114
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#105
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.2#334
Freethrows-2.1#287
Improvement+0.4#116

Defense
Total Defense-3.2#276
First Shot-4.4#303
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#106
Layups/Dunks-3.3#285
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#292
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#105
Freethrows-1.4#260
Improvement-0.9#300
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.6% 15.5% 9.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 38.9% 60.0% 34.3%
.500 or above in Conference 64.9% 76.1% 62.4%
Conference Champion 12.4% 17.9% 11.2%
Last Place in Conference 5.5% 2.8% 6.1%
First Four7.2% 8.9% 6.8%
First Round6.9% 10.7% 6.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Chattanooga (Away) - 17.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 31 - 51 - 6
Quad 413 - 1013 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 102   @ Colorado St. L 79-87 OT 9%     0 - 1 -0.2 -0.9 +1.9
  Nov 10, 2024 185   @ Wyoming L 66-81 20%     0 - 2 -13.3 -7.0 -6.1
  Nov 13, 2024 232   Howard L 84-88 OT 36%     0 - 3 -7.4 +4.0 -11.3
  Nov 16, 2024 346   Alabama A&M W 81-71 78%     1 - 3 -5.4 -8.0 +1.2
  Nov 25, 2024 168   @ Chattanooga L 69-79 18%    
  Nov 26, 2024 159   Bryant L 76-83 25%    
  Dec 01, 2024 177   UNC Asheville L 73-76 39%    
  Dec 10, 2024 122   @ Western Kentucky L 72-85 12%    
  Dec 19, 2024 323   @ Southern Indiana L 71-72 46%    
  Dec 21, 2024 279   @ Morehead St. L 66-70 36%    
  Jan 02, 2025 322   Southeast Missouri St. W 78-73 67%    
  Jan 04, 2025 247   Arkansas Little Rock W 75-74 51%    
  Jan 09, 2025 355   @ Lindenwood W 75-71 63%    
  Jan 11, 2025 325   @ Western Illinois L 68-69 46%    
  Jan 16, 2025 269   SIU Edwardsville W 71-70 54%    
  Jan 18, 2025 315   Eastern Illinois W 73-69 65%    
  Jan 21, 2025 302   Tennessee Martin W 78-75 62%    
  Jan 23, 2025 332   Tennessee Tech W 74-68 71%    
  Jan 30, 2025 247   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 71-77 30%    
  Feb 01, 2025 322   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 75-76 46%    
  Feb 06, 2025 325   Western Illinois W 71-66 67%    
  Feb 08, 2025 355   Lindenwood W 78-68 80%    
  Feb 13, 2025 315   @ Eastern Illinois L 70-72 44%    
  Feb 15, 2025 269   @ SIU Edwardsville L 68-73 34%    
  Feb 18, 2025 302   @ Tennessee Martin L 75-78 41%    
  Feb 22, 2025 332   @ Tennessee Tech W 71-70 52%    
  Feb 27, 2025 279   Morehead St. W 69-67 57%    
  Mar 01, 2025 323   Southern Indiana W 74-69 66%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 2.1 3.2 3.2 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 12.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.6 4.2 2.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 12.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 4.4 4.1 1.7 0.3 0.0 12.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 4.4 4.1 1.3 0.1 0.0 11.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 4.3 4.1 1.2 0.1 10.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.4 4.3 1.2 0.1 0.0 9.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.9 4.2 1.3 0.1 9.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.2 3.4 1.4 0.1 7.6 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 1.8 2.7 1.3 0.1 0.0 6.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.7 1.7 0.9 0.1 0.0 5.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.2 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.6 3.1 4.4 6.3 8.3 10.2 11.3 11.4 11.1 9.8 8.1 5.9 3.9 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
18-2 99.5% 0.9    0.9 0.0
17-3 92.5% 1.9    1.7 0.2 0.0
16-4 80.2% 3.2    2.3 0.8 0.1
15-5 54.2% 3.2    1.7 1.3 0.3 0.0
14-6 25.8% 2.1    0.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 6.8% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 12.4% 12.4 7.6 3.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 61.3% 61.3% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.3% 56.1% 56.1% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1
18-2 0.9% 52.2% 52.2% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4
17-3 2.1% 40.5% 40.5% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 1.2
16-4 3.9% 35.9% 35.9% 15.8 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.5
15-5 5.9% 30.2% 30.2% 15.9 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.1
14-6 8.1% 25.0% 25.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 2.0 6.1
13-7 9.8% 16.1% 16.1% 16.0 0.0 1.6 8.2
12-8 11.1% 9.5% 9.5% 16.0 1.1 10.0
11-9 11.4% 5.2% 5.2% 16.0 0.6 10.8
10-10 11.3% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.3 11.0
9-11 10.2% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.2 10.0
8-12 8.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 8.3
7-13 6.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.3
6-14 4.4% 4.4
5-15 3.1% 3.1
4-16 1.6% 1.6
3-17 0.7% 0.7
2-18 0.4% 0.4
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 10.6% 10.6% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 9.1 89.4 0.0%