Tennessee St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.9#249
Expected Predictive Rating-0.4#178
Pace75.0#50
Improvement-3.1#345

Offense
Total Offense-4.3#287
First Shot-4.5#295
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#169
Layup/Dunks-2.5#262
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#85
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#308
Freethrows+0.5#153
Improvement-2.0#331

Defense
Total Defense-0.6#180
First Shot-1.5#226
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#123
Layups/Dunks-4.7#322
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#17
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#47
Freethrows-3.7#342
Improvement-1.1#285
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.6% 18.0% 11.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 14.9 15.4
.500 or above 61.2% 80.5% 56.9%
.500 or above in Conference 68.4% 78.4% 66.2%
Conference Champion 11.2% 16.7% 10.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.9% 1.3% 3.2%
First Four2.5% 1.7% 2.6%
First Round11.4% 17.1% 10.2%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNLV (Away) - 18.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 32 - 32 - 6
Quad 412 - 714 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 90 @Belmont L 79-87 10%     0 - 1 +0.9 +0.3 +1.7
  Sun, Nov 16 128 @Western Kentucky L 82-95 17%     0 - 2 -7.9 +4.8 -11.5
  Thu, Nov 20 17 @Tennessee L 60-89 2%     0 - 3 -9.8 -10.1 +3.7
  Tue, Nov 25 203 @UNC Asheville W 75-73 30%     1 - 3 +2.4 -2.1 +4.5
  Sun, Nov 30 222 @Chattanooga W 70-64 34%     2 - 3 +5.2 +0.1 +5.6
  Wed, Dec 3 272 @Alabama A&M L 53-80 42%     2 - 4 -29.8 -14.8 -17.0
  Sat, Dec 13 132 @UNLV L 77-87 18%    
  Thu, Dec 18 240 Tennessee Martin W 73-70 59%    
  Sat, Dec 20 216 Southeast Missouri St. W 77-75 56%    
  Sat, Jan 3 315 @Arkansas Little Rock W 72-71 53%    
  Thu, Jan 8 361 @Western Illinois W 74-67 73%    
  Sat, Jan 10 329 @Eastern Illinois W 72-70 58%    
  Thu, Jan 15 325 Morehead St. W 78-70 76%    
  Sat, Jan 17 314 Southern Indiana W 81-74 73%    
  Thu, Jan 22 230 @SIU Edwardsville L 68-72 36%    
  Sat, Jan 24 236 @Lindenwood L 75-79 37%    
  Tue, Jan 27 271 Tennessee Tech W 78-74 64%    
  Thu, Jan 29 315 Arkansas Little Rock W 75-68 73%    
  Thu, Feb 5 329 Eastern Illinois W 75-67 76%    
  Sat, Feb 7 361 Western Illinois W 77-64 87%    
  Thu, Feb 12 314 @Southern Indiana W 78-77 52%    
  Sat, Feb 14 325 @Morehead St. W 75-73 56%    
  Thu, Feb 19 236 Lindenwood W 78-76 59%    
  Sat, Feb 21 230 SIU Edwardsville W 71-69 58%    
  Sat, Feb 28 240 @Tennessee Martin L 70-73 38%    
Projected Record 13 - 12 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.9 3.5 2.5 1.1 0.2 11.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.8 4.5 4.4 1.9 0.4 0.0 13.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.8 5.4 4.5 1.3 0.1 13.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 5.6 4.6 1.2 0.1 13.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 5.0 4.5 1.1 0.1 0.0 11.9 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 4.0 4.5 1.2 0.1 10.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.0 3.9 1.2 0.1 8.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.1 3.3 1.1 0.1 7.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.7 2.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 5.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.3 0.6 0.1 3.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.5 11th
Total 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.9 3.7 5.6 8.3 10.6 12.4 13.3 13.1 11.3 8.7 5.5 2.9 1.1 0.2 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-3 99.4% 1.1    1.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 86.9% 2.5    1.9 0.5 0.0
15-5 62.9% 3.5    2.0 1.2 0.2 0.0
14-6 32.8% 2.9    1.1 1.2 0.5 0.1
13-7 9.0% 1.0    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 11.2% 11.2 6.4 3.4 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.2% 57.1% 57.1% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-3 1.1% 51.1% 51.1% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5
16-4 2.9% 43.2% 43.2% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 1.6
15-5 5.5% 36.4% 36.4% 14.9 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.3 3.5
14-6 8.7% 30.2% 30.2% 15.3 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.1 6.1
13-7 11.3% 20.7% 20.7% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.3 8.9
12-8 13.1% 14.0% 14.0% 15.7 0.0 0.5 1.3 11.3
11-9 13.3% 7.7% 7.7% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.9 12.3
10-10 12.4% 4.5% 4.5% 15.9 0.1 0.5 11.9
9-11 10.6% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2 10.3
8-12 8.3% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 8.2
7-13 5.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 5.6
6-14 3.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.7
5-15 1.9% 1.9
4-16 0.9% 0.9
3-17 0.4% 0.4
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20
Total 100% 12.6% 12.6% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.6 4.8 5.8 87.4 0.0%