Eastern Illinois
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.8#344
Expected Predictive Rating-17.1#357
Pace67.2#219
Improvement-2.8#308

Offense
Total Offense-8.6#355
First Shot-7.0#343
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#282
Layup/Dunks-7.2#355
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.4#9
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.7#321
Freethrows-0.6#218
Improvement-2.6#314

Defense
Total Defense-3.2#269
First Shot-5.5#338
After Offensive Rebounds+2.3#26
Layups/Dunks+1.9#104
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#5
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.2#359
Freethrows-3.4#351
Improvement-0.3#197
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 3.2% 6.8% 1.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 55.4% 41.2% 64.0%
First Four0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
First Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Morehead St. (Home) - 37.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 30 - 30 - 8
Quad 47 - 137 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 9   @ Illinois L 67-112 1%     0 - 1 -23.6 -5.9 -10.5
  Nov 10, 2024 56   @ Indiana L 55-90 2%     0 - 2 -22.3 -12.2 -9.1
  Nov 15, 2024 55   @ Northwestern L 58-67 OT 2%     0 - 3 +3.8 -2.1 +5.2
  Nov 19, 2024 106   @ DePaul L 69-78 6%     0 - 4 -2.7 -1.2 -1.7
  Nov 24, 2024 214   @ Valparaiso L 53-81 14%     0 - 5 -28.1 -13.0 -18.9
  Nov 29, 2024 356   Northern Illinois W 72-59 68%     1 - 5 -3.5 -8.0 +4.4
  Dec 03, 2024 84   @ Butler L 58-73 3%     1 - 6 -5.5 -9.2 +3.1
  Dec 14, 2024 248   @ Eastern Kentucky L 66-81 18%     1 - 7 -17.1 -12.6 -3.9
  Dec 19, 2024 269   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 72-79 21%     1 - 8 0 - 1 -10.4 +4.6 -15.5
  Jan 02, 2025 341   Lindenwood W 78-74 OT 60%     2 - 8 1 - 1 -10.3 -13.9 +2.9
  Jan 04, 2025 336   Western Illinois L 67-75 59%     2 - 9 1 - 2 -22.2 -11.0 -11.5
  Jan 07, 2025 263   SIU Edwardsville L 57-60 38%     2 - 10 1 - 3 -11.5 -11.3 -0.6
  Jan 09, 2025 317   Tennessee Tech L 64-69 50%     2 - 11 1 - 4 -16.7 -8.5 -8.7
  Jan 16, 2025 288   @ Tennessee Martin L 63-68 24%     2 - 12 1 - 5 -9.5 -11.8 +2.3
  Jan 18, 2025 301   @ Tennessee St. L 65-84 26%     2 - 13 1 - 6 -24.1 -10.5 -13.2
  Jan 23, 2025 259   Morehead St. L 62-66 38%    
  Jan 25, 2025 324   Southern Indiana W 69-68 54%    
  Jan 27, 2025 238   Arkansas Little Rock L 63-70 25%    
  Jan 30, 2025 336   @ Western Illinois L 64-67 37%    
  Feb 01, 2025 341   @ Lindenwood L 67-70 38%    
  Feb 04, 2025 263   @ SIU Edwardsville L 61-70 20%    
  Feb 08, 2025 317   @ Tennessee Tech L 66-72 30%    
  Feb 13, 2025 301   Tennessee St. L 71-72 47%    
  Feb 15, 2025 288   Tennessee Martin L 68-70 43%    
  Feb 20, 2025 324   @ Southern Indiana L 66-71 32%    
  Feb 22, 2025 259   @ Morehead St. L 60-69 20%    
  Feb 27, 2025 238   Arkansas Little Rock L 64-69 34%    
  Mar 01, 2025 269   Southeast Missouri St. L 67-70 40%    
Projected Record 7 - 21 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.5 4th
5th 0.2 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 1.8 0.8 0.1 3.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.0 2.2 0.3 6.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 4.2 4.5 0.7 0.0 10.2 8th
9th 0.1 1.5 6.0 6.0 1.7 0.0 15.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 3.2 8.6 8.2 2.4 0.1 22.8 10th
11th 0.9 4.1 10.4 12.5 9.3 2.6 0.2 0.0 40.0 11th
Total 0.9 4.2 10.7 15.7 19.4 17.6 13.5 9.8 5.0 2.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 33.3% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0% 0.0
12-8 0.2% 12.5% 12.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2
11-9 0.7% 6.8% 6.8% 16.0 0.1 0.7
10-10 2.2% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.1 2.1
9-11 5.0% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.1 4.9
8-12 9.8% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 9.7
7-13 13.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.5
6-14 17.6% 17.6
5-15 19.4% 19.4
4-16 15.7% 15.7
3-17 10.7% 10.7
2-18 4.2% 4.2
1-19 0.9% 0.9
0-20
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 16.0 0.4 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.9%