Eastern Illinois
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.4#327
Expected Predictive Rating-12.4#332
Pace66.6#242
Improvement-1.2#262

Offense
Total Offense-6.1#339
First Shot-5.7#333
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#208
Layup/Dunks-8.2#359
2 Pt Jumpshots+6.8#4
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#275
Freethrows-1.3#255
Improvement+0.1#165

Defense
Total Defense-3.4#283
First Shot-6.2#351
After Offensive Rebounds+2.8#16
Layups/Dunks+0.7#144
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#7
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.6#355
Freethrows-3.4#343
Improvement-1.3#285
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.0% 7.0% 3.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 9.2% 19.1% 6.3%
.500 or above in Conference 39.9% 60.5% 33.7%
Conference Champion 3.8% 9.2% 2.2%
Last Place in Conference 15.5% 6.5% 18.3%
First Four3.4% 5.8% 2.7%
First Round2.2% 4.1% 1.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas Little Rock (Away) - 23.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 30 - 30 - 8
Quad 410 - 1110 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 16   @ Illinois L 67-112 1%     0 - 1 -26.8 -7.7 -11.9
  Nov 10, 2024 45   @ Indiana L 55-90 3%     0 - 2 -21.4 -13.4 -7.0
  Nov 15, 2024 61   @ Northwestern L 58-67 OT 3%     0 - 3 +3.1 -1.8 +4.3
  Nov 19, 2024 103   @ DePaul L 69-78 6%     0 - 4 -1.0 +0.7 -1.8
  Nov 24, 2024 226   @ Valparaiso L 53-81 20%     0 - 5 -28.5 -14.3 -18.0
  Nov 29, 2024 346   Northern Illinois W 72-59 70%     1 - 5 -2.0 -7.1 +5.0
  Dec 03, 2024 74   @ Butler L 58-73 4%     1 - 6 -4.5 -8.8 +3.8
  Dec 14, 2024 220   @ Eastern Kentucky L 66-81 18%     1 - 7 -14.8 -11.0 -3.2
  Dec 19, 2024 289   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 72-79 29%     1 - 8 0 - 1 -10.8 +4.4 -15.7
  Dec 21, 2024 243   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 63-71 23%    
  Jan 02, 2025 351   Lindenwood W 72-66 71%    
  Jan 04, 2025 331   Western Illinois W 68-64 63%    
  Jan 07, 2025 269   SIU Edwardsville L 66-67 47%    
  Jan 09, 2025 328   Tennessee Tech W 72-69 61%    
  Jan 16, 2025 324   @ Tennessee Martin L 68-71 38%    
  Jan 18, 2025 316   @ Tennessee St. L 71-75 37%    
  Jan 23, 2025 281   Morehead St. W 68-67 51%    
  Jan 25, 2025 282   Southern Indiana W 70-69 51%    
  Jan 30, 2025 331   @ Western Illinois L 65-67 41%    
  Feb 01, 2025 351   @ Lindenwood L 68-69 50%    
  Feb 04, 2025 269   @ SIU Edwardsville L 63-70 27%    
  Feb 08, 2025 328   @ Tennessee Tech L 69-72 40%    
  Feb 13, 2025 316   Tennessee St. W 74-72 58%    
  Feb 15, 2025 324   Tennessee Martin W 71-68 60%    
  Feb 20, 2025 282   @ Southern Indiana L 67-73 30%    
  Feb 22, 2025 281   @ Morehead St. L 64-70 31%    
  Feb 27, 2025 243   Arkansas Little Rock L 66-68 44%    
  Mar 01, 2025 289   Southeast Missouri St. W 70-69 51%    
Projected Record 10 - 18 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.3 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 5.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 3.2 1.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 7.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 3.9 2.5 0.3 0.0 8.2 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 4.6 3.3 0.6 0.0 9.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 4.1 4.5 0.7 0.0 10.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.7 5.1 1.3 0.0 10.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.2 5.6 2.1 0.1 11.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.0 5.3 2.7 0.2 12.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.0 4.3 2.3 0.3 0.0 11.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.9 2.7 2.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 9.7 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.1 4.1 6.4 9.2 11.6 13.1 12.5 12.1 9.7 7.7 5.1 3.0 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-3 94.3% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-4 88.8% 0.6    0.5 0.1 0.0
15-5 68.2% 1.0    0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
14-6 38.9% 1.2    0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0
13-7 13.5% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 1.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.8% 3.8 1.9 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.1% 53.3% 53.3% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.2% 33.3% 33.3% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.6% 33.5% 33.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4
15-5 1.5% 27.0% 27.0% 15.9 0.0 0.4 1.1
14-6 3.0% 19.3% 19.3% 16.0 0.0 0.6 2.4
13-7 5.1% 15.0% 15.0% 16.0 0.8 4.4
12-8 7.7% 9.4% 9.4% 16.0 0.0 0.7 7.0
11-9 9.7% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 0.5 9.2
10-10 12.1% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.4 11.7
9-11 12.5% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.2 12.3
8-12 13.1% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 13.0
7-13 11.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.6
6-14 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 9.2
5-15 6.4% 6.4
4-16 4.1% 4.1
3-17 2.1% 2.1
2-18 0.8% 0.8
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 3.8 96.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%