Valparaiso
Missouri Valley
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.5#226
Expected Predictive Rating-2.9#215
Pace71.0#122
Improvement+3.0#27

Offense
Total Offense-0.4#181
First Shot-4.2#301
After Offensive Rebound+3.8#15
Layup/Dunks-2.0#262
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#230
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#292
Freethrows+2.3#60
Improvement+0.6#128

Defense
Total Defense-3.1#276
First Shot-1.5#221
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#304
Layups/Dunks-4.6#332
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#216
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#44
Freethrows-0.6#226
Improvement+2.4#22
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 1.0% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 13.9 14.3
.500 or above 16.2% 35.7% 14.1%
.500 or above in Conference 15.2% 34.1% 13.1%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.8% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 22.9% 9.3% 24.4%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.6% 1.0% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bradley (Away) - 10.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 51 - 8
Quad 34 - 74 - 15
Quad 48 - 312 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 81   Liberty L 63-83 16%     0 - 1 -13.0 -2.8 -11.0
  Nov 12, 2024 224   Cleveland St. L 67-75 61%     0 - 2 -14.2 -5.9 -8.5
  Nov 21, 2024 351   Lindenwood W 77-64 87%     1 - 2 -2.4 -5.0 +2.1
  Nov 24, 2024 327   Eastern Illinois W 81-53 80%     2 - 2 +15.6 +14.2 +5.1
  Nov 27, 2024 346   Northern Illinois W 87-82 86%     3 - 2 -10.0 +2.9 -13.2
  Nov 29, 2024 103   @ DePaul L 70-89 14%     3 - 3 -11.0 +2.6 -14.2
  Dec 05, 2024 67   Drake L 60-66 20%     3 - 4 0 - 1 -0.5 +0.0 -1.4
  Dec 14, 2024 225   Central Michigan W 93-77 61%     4 - 4 +9.7 +8.4 -0.6
  Dec 17, 2024 38   @ Ohio St. L 73-95 5%     4 - 5 -7.3 +1.9 -7.8
  Dec 20, 2024 296   @ Western Michigan W 76-73 53%     5 - 5 -1.2 +0.4 -1.6
  Dec 29, 2024 79   @ Bradley L 68-82 10%    
  Jan 01, 2025 194   @ Missouri St. L 70-75 32%    
  Jan 04, 2025 98   Northern Iowa L 71-77 29%    
  Jan 08, 2025 150   Indiana St. L 82-83 47%    
  Jan 11, 2025 124   @ Murray St. L 67-76 21%    
  Jan 14, 2025 133   @ Belmont L 78-86 22%    
  Jan 18, 2025 199   Illinois-Chicago W 77-76 54%    
  Jan 22, 2025 67   @ Drake L 60-75 9%    
  Jan 25, 2025 290   Evansville W 77-71 72%    
  Jan 28, 2025 168   Southern Illinois W 74-73 50%    
  Feb 01, 2025 153   @ Illinois St. L 70-77 27%    
  Feb 05, 2025 150   @ Indiana St. L 79-86 27%    
  Feb 08, 2025 124   Murray St. L 70-73 40%    
  Feb 12, 2025 133   Belmont L 81-83 43%    
  Feb 16, 2025 290   @ Evansville W 75-74 51%    
  Feb 19, 2025 194   Missouri St. W 73-72 54%    
  Feb 22, 2025 168   @ Southern Illinois L 71-77 30%    
  Feb 26, 2025 79   Bradley L 71-79 26%    
  Mar 02, 2025 199   @ Illinois-Chicago L 74-79 33%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 3.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.9 1.9 0.4 0.0 4.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.4 2.7 0.8 0.1 6.4 6th
7th 0.4 2.7 4.2 1.5 0.1 8.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.7 5.5 2.3 0.2 11.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 3.0 6.4 3.4 0.4 0.0 13.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 3.9 6.8 4.3 0.7 0.0 16.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.9 5.0 6.6 4.0 0.7 0.0 18.6 11th
12th 0.2 1.0 2.9 4.5 3.9 1.8 0.3 0.0 14.6 12th
Total 0.2 1.0 3.2 6.4 9.7 12.7 14.5 14.5 12.7 9.8 6.7 4.3 2.2 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 71.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 45.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 28.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 9.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.1% 12.1% 12.1% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.2% 8.0% 8.0% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-6 0.5% 5.2% 5.2% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
13-7 1.3% 3.8% 3.8% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2
12-8 2.2% 4.4% 4.4% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1
11-9 4.3% 2.1% 2.1% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.2
10-10 6.7% 1.2% 1.2% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.7
9-11 9.8% 0.8% 0.8% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 9.7
8-12 12.7% 0.6% 0.6% 15.5 0.0 0.0 12.7
7-13 14.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 14.5
6-14 14.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.5
5-15 12.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.7
4-16 9.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.6
3-17 6.4% 6.4
2-18 3.2% 3.2
1-19 1.0% 1.0
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%