IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Valparaiso
Missouri Valley
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating	-2.9	#214
Expected Predictive Rating	-1.7	#203

Pace	69.4	#159
Improvement	+1.6	#114

Offense
Total Offense	-1.1	#205

First Shot	-3.6	#284
After Offensive Rebound	+2.5	#38

Layup/Dunks	-3.2	#295
2 Pt Jumpshots	+0.4	#147
3 Pt Jumpshots	-2.7	#262
Freethrows	+1.9	#74

Improvement	-2.2	#300

Defense
Total Defense	-1.7	#233

First Shot	-0.9	#203
After Offensive Rebounds	-0.9	#265

Layups/Dunks	-4.0	#318
2 Pt Jumpshots	-0.8	#261
3 Pt Jumpshots	+3.8	#35
Freethrows	+0.0	#186

Improvement	+3.8	#17

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	0.7%	1.1%	0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.7	14.3	14.8

.500 or above	20.5%	42.9%	17.7%
.500 or above in Conference	18.6%	40.4%	15.9%
Conference Champion	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Last Place in Conference	5.4%	1.5%	5.9%

First Four	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
First Round	0.7%	1.1%	0.6%
Second Round	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Drake (Away) - 10.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	1 - 6	1 - 8
Quad 3	3 - 6	4 - 14
Quad 4	10 - 3	13 - 17

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 04, 2024	92	Liberty	L	63-83	20%	0 - 1			-13.9	-2.8	-11.8
Nov 12, 2024	173	Cleveland St.	L	67-75	51%	0 - 2			-11.2	-5.2	-6.2
Nov 21, 2024	341	Lindenwood	W	77-64	86%	1 - 2			-1.3	-3.7	+2.0
Nov 24, 2024	344	Eastern Illinois	W	81-53	86%	2 - 2			+13.5	+14.6	+2.7
Nov 27, 2024	356	Northern Illinois	W	87-82	89%	3 - 2			-11.5	+1.9	-13.7
Nov 29, 2024	106	@ DePaul	L	70-89	19%	3 - 3			-12.7	+0.7	-14.0
Dec 05, 2024	80	Drake	L	60-66	24%	3 - 4	0 - 1		-1.6	-1.1	-1.4
Dec 14, 2024	225	Central Michigan	W	93-77	64%	4 - 4			+9.6	+8.4	-0.6
Dec 17, 2024	36	@ Ohio St.	L	73-95	6%	4 - 5			-6.7	+3.1	-8.3
Dec 20, 2024	304	@ Western Michigan	W	76-73	59%	5 - 5			-2.2	-0.2	-1.9
Dec 29, 2024	73	@ Bradley	L	75-81 2OT	11%	5 - 6	0 - 2		+4.4	+0.1	+4.9
Jan 01, 2025	244	@ Missouri St.	W	73-72	46%	6 - 6	1 - 2		-0.8	+11.5	-12.1
Jan 04, 2025	113	Northern Iowa	W	80-73	38%	7 - 6	2 - 2		+7.2	+7.6	-0.2
Jan 08, 2025	213	Indiana St.	W	98-95 OT	60%	8 - 6	3 - 2		-2.5	+3.7	-6.7
Jan 11, 2025	142	@ Murray St.	L	47-58	25%	8 - 7	3 - 3		-6.8	-18.1	+10.2
Jan 14, 2025	139	@ Belmont	L	64-71	25%	8 - 8	3 - 4		-2.7	-13.3	+11.0
Jan 18, 2025	143	Illinois-Chicago	L	74-81	44%	8 - 9	3 - 5		-8.3	-0.3	-8.1
Jan 22, 2025	80	@ Drake	L	58-71	11%
Jan 25, 2025	261	Evansville	W	71-65	71%
Jan 28, 2025	190	Southern Illinois	W	73-72	55%
Feb 01, 2025	144	@ Illinois St.	L	69-76	24%
Feb 05, 2025	213	@ Indiana St.	L	80-83	39%
Feb 08, 2025	142	Murray St.	L	69-71	45%
Feb 12, 2025	139	Belmont	L	79-81	44%
Feb 16, 2025	261	@ Evansville	W	69-68	50%
Feb 19, 2025	244	Missouri St.	W	71-67	67%
Feb 22, 2025	190	@ Southern Illinois	L	70-74	33%
Feb 26, 2025	73	Bradley	L	67-75	25%
Mar 02, 2025	143	@ Illinois-Chicago	L	72-79	25%
Projected Record						13 - 16	8 - 12

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Missouri Valley Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st														0.0	0.0	0.0							0.0	1st
2nd														0.1	0.0								0.2	2nd
3rd												0.1	0.5	0.4	0.0								1.0	3rd
4th										0.0	0.3	1.3	1.1	0.1									2.8	4th
5th										0.3	2.3	2.3	0.6										5.5	5th
6th									0.3	3.2	4.7	1.2	0.1										9.6	6th
7th								0.2	3.0	8.0	2.7	0.2											14.1	7th
8th							0.1	3.1	9.9	5.5	0.4												19.0	8th
9th						0.1	2.0	8.9	6.7	0.8	0.0												18.4	9th
10th					0.1	1.5	7.1	6.7	1.0	0.0													16.3	10th
11th				0.1	1.2	4.5	4.1	1.0	0.0														10.9	11th
12th				0.3	1.0	0.8	0.2																2.2	12th

Total				0.4	2.2	6.8	13.5	19.8	21.0	17.8	10.4	5.2	2.3	0.6	0.1	0.0								Total

Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5	100.0%	0.0				0.0
14-6	14.3%	0.0				0.0
13-7	1.7%	0.0						0.0
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	0.0%	0.0				0.0		0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5	0.0%																							0.0
14-6	0.1%																							0.1
13-7	0.6%		6.8%	6.8%		13.5														0.0	0.0			0.6
12-8	2.3%		2.6%	2.6%		14.0															0.1			2.2
11-9	5.2%		2.3%	2.3%		13.8														0.0	0.1	0.0		5.1
10-10	10.4%		1.1%	1.1%		14.5															0.1	0.1		10.3
9-11	17.8%		0.8%	0.8%		14.9															0.0	0.1	0.0	17.6
8-12	21.0%		0.6%	0.6%		15.3																0.1	0.0	20.8
7-13	19.8%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.1	19.7
6-14	13.5%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	13.5
5-15	6.8%																							6.8
4-16	2.2%																							2.2
3-17	0.4%																							0.4
2-18
1-19
0-20

Total	100%		0.7%	0.7%	0.0%	14.7														0.1	0.2	0.3	0.2	99.3		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.3%