Cleveland St.
Horizon
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.4#170
Expected Predictive Rating+0.5#158
Pace65.7#250
Improvement+4.3#31

Offense
Total Offense-2.2#231
First Shot-3.8#287
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#88
Layup/Dunks-1.7#241
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#53
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.8#320
Freethrows+0.3#159
Improvement+2.8#57

Defense
Total Defense+1.7#125
First Shot+3.1#77
After Offensive Rebounds-1.4#299
Layups/Dunks+0.7#145
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#71
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#134
Freethrows-0.2#191
Improvement+1.6#101
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.1% 16.7% 13.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.3 14.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 62.4% 86.0% 42.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round15.1% 16.7% 13.9%
Second Round0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oakland (Away) - 45.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 36 - 47 - 8
Quad 412 - 319 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 22   @ Michigan L 53-101 5%     0 - 1 -29.8 -14.5 -12.2
  Nov 09, 2024 56   @ Kansas St. L 64-77 11%     0 - 2 +0.1 -1.2 +1.2
  Nov 12, 2024 238   @ Valparaiso W 75-67 55%     1 - 2 +6.4 +1.6 +5.0
  Nov 16, 2024 291   Eastern Michigan W 71-63 81%     2 - 2 -1.6 -3.5 +2.3
  Nov 19, 2024 76   @ Minnesota L 47-58 17%     2 - 3 -1.1 -17.1 +15.2
  Nov 23, 2024 137   Kent St. L 52-68 53%     2 - 4 -17.3 -16.4 -2.1
  Nov 26, 2024 346   NJIT W 56-53 91%     3 - 4 -12.2 -17.5 +5.5
  Nov 29, 2024 329   Morehead St. L 69-71 87%     3 - 5 -14.9 -7.9 -7.0
  Dec 05, 2024 130   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 67-79 33%     3 - 6 0 - 1 -7.7 +1.1 -9.8
  Dec 07, 2024 337   @ Green Bay W 83-61 79%     4 - 6 1 - 1 +13.1 +6.5 +6.9
  Dec 19, 2024 198   Oakland W 92-75 66%     5 - 6 2 - 1 +12.4 +23.5 -9.7
  Dec 29, 2024 220   Wright St. W 78-64 70%     6 - 6 3 - 1 +8.2 +6.1 +3.3
  Jan 04, 2025 326   IU Indianapolis W 67-61 87%     7 - 6 4 - 1 -6.6 -4.9 -0.6
  Jan 08, 2025 173   @ Robert Morris W 80-69 41%     8 - 6 5 - 1 +13.0 +9.2 +3.8
  Jan 11, 2025 186   @ Youngstown St. W 80-72 44%     9 - 6 6 - 1 +9.0 +10.3 -1.1
  Jan 15, 2025 241   Northern Kentucky W 76-58 73%     10 - 6 7 - 1 +11.0 +8.1 +4.6
  Jan 19, 2025 326   @ IU Indianapolis W 73-62 75%     11 - 6 8 - 1 +3.5 -1.5 +6.1
  Jan 22, 2025 334   Detroit Mercy W 65-50 88%     12 - 6 9 - 1 +1.6 -6.5 +9.4
  Jan 25, 2025 337   Green Bay W 81-66 89%     13 - 6 10 - 1 +1.0 +8.0 -5.7
  Jan 30, 2025 153   @ Purdue Fort Wayne W 68-58 36%     14 - 6 11 - 1 +13.1 +1.0 +13.1
  Feb 05, 2025 241   @ Northern Kentucky L 75-85 56%     14 - 7 11 - 2 -11.9 +5.4 -17.7
  Feb 08, 2025 130   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 77-60 52%     15 - 7 12 - 2 +16.2 -0.6 +15.9
  Feb 12, 2025 173   Robert Morris L 59-68 60%     15 - 8 12 - 3 -12.1 -9.0 -3.9
  Feb 16, 2025 186   Youngstown St. L 60-68 64%     15 - 9 12 - 4 -12.1 -7.9 -4.9
  Feb 21, 2025 334   @ Detroit Mercy W 73-65 77%     16 - 9 13 - 4 -0.3 +0.8 -0.9
  Feb 23, 2025 198   @ Oakland L 65-66 45%    
  Feb 27, 2025 220   @ Wright St. W 72-71 50%    
  Mar 01, 2025 153   Purdue Fort Wayne W 75-73 58%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 10.6 37.8 14.1 62.4 1st
2nd 0.5 25.2 25.7 2nd
3rd 3.0 3.0 3rd
4th 5.8 5.8 4th
5th 3.1 3.1 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 12.4 35.8 37.8 14.1 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 14.1    14.1
15-5 100.0% 37.8    10.6 27.2
14-6 29.7% 10.6    0.0 1.1 3.7 4.5 1.4
13-7 0.0%
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total 62.4% 62.4 24.6 28.3 3.7 4.5 1.4



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 14.1% 19.4% 19.4% 13.8 0.0 0.8 1.7 0.3 11.3
15-5 37.8% 16.8% 16.8% 14.5 0.3 2.9 3.1 0.1 31.4
14-6 35.8% 13.6% 13.6% 15.0 0.0 0.9 3.2 0.8 31.0
13-7 12.4% 9.4% 9.4% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.2 11.2
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 15.1% 15.1% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 1.1 5.6 7.3 1.1 84.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.7% 100.0% 13.8 1.5 28.2 60.4 9.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 4.8%
Lose Out 6.8%