Northern Kentucky
Horizon
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.0#201
Expected Predictive Rating-12.2#318
Pace69.4#178
Improvement+0.7#114

Offense
Total Offense-4.1#290
First Shot-4.3#299
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#172
Layup/Dunks-2.3#258
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#70
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.1#321
Freethrows+0.7#156
Improvement+0.2#144

Defense
Total Defense+2.0#109
First Shot+1.4#139
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#141
Layups/Dunks-1.1#212
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#11
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#278
Freethrows+1.7#88
Improvement+0.5#122
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.7% 13.0% 8.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.4 15.1
.500 or above 46.5% 69.2% 40.6%
.500 or above in Conference 69.6% 79.9% 66.9%
Conference Champion 11.0% 16.7% 9.5%
Last Place in Conference 1.5% 0.6% 1.7%
First Four1.9% 0.9% 2.2%
First Round8.9% 12.5% 7.9%
Second Round0.4% 1.0% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: College of Charleston (Away) - 20.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 33 - 63 - 11
Quad 412 - 615 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 82   @ Florida St. L 62-74 13%     0 - 1 -1.8 -9.6 +8.8
  Nov 08, 2024 17   @ Purdue L 50-72 5%     0 - 2 -4.8 -10.4 +2.7
  Nov 14, 2024 229   Nicholls St. L 59-61 66%     0 - 3 -8.3 -14.7 +6.3
  Nov 19, 2024 19   Cincinnati L 60-76 12%     0 - 4 -5.0 -3.0 -3.3
  Nov 27, 2024 111   @ College of Charleston L 68-77 21%    
  Nov 30, 2024 335   Bellarmine W 73-61 86%    
  Dec 03, 2024 139   @ Akron L 66-73 28%    
  Dec 07, 2024 360   @ IU Indianapolis W 73-63 80%    
  Dec 15, 2024 192   Norfolk St. W 69-67 58%    
  Dec 18, 2024 328   Detroit Mercy W 73-63 83%    
  Dec 21, 2024 319   South Carolina St. W 74-64 80%    
  Dec 29, 2024 253   @ Robert Morris L 67-68 49%    
  Jan 01, 2025 137   Purdue Fort Wayne L 73-74 48%    
  Jan 04, 2025 252   Green Bay W 75-69 70%    
  Jan 08, 2025 173   @ Youngstown St. L 67-71 34%    
  Jan 11, 2025 214   Oakland W 68-64 62%    
  Jan 15, 2025 219   @ Cleveland St. L 67-69 41%    
  Jan 18, 2025 143   Wright St. L 74-75 49%    
  Jan 24, 2025 211   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 75-72 61%    
  Jan 30, 2025 328   @ Detroit Mercy W 70-66 64%    
  Feb 01, 2025 214   @ Oakland L 65-67 42%    
  Feb 05, 2025 219   Cleveland St. W 70-66 62%    
  Feb 08, 2025 253   Robert Morris W 70-64 69%    
  Feb 14, 2025 252   @ Green Bay L 71-72 50%    
  Feb 16, 2025 211   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 72-75 41%    
  Feb 21, 2025 143   @ Wright St. L 72-78 29%    
  Feb 23, 2025 360   IU Indianapolis W 76-60 91%    
  Feb 27, 2025 137   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 70-77 28%    
  Mar 01, 2025 173   Youngstown St. W 70-68 57%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.4 1.2 2.8 2.9 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 11.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.7 4.0 3.4 1.1 0.3 0.0 12.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 2.9 4.8 2.8 0.6 0.1 11.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.7 5.1 2.3 0.3 0.0 12.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.6 5.7 2.6 0.2 12.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.9 5.0 2.4 0.2 0.0 11.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.5 4.2 2.3 0.3 0.0 9.8 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 2.2 3.5 1.8 0.2 8.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.4 2.1 1.0 0.2 6.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.0 3.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.8 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 2.0 4.1 5.1 7.6 9.8 11.8 12.8 11.5 10.3 8.2 6.8 4.1 2.5 1.1 0.4 0.1 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4
18-2 98.9% 1.1    1.0 0.1
17-3 89.6% 2.2    1.8 0.4
16-4 70.7% 2.9    2.0 0.9 0.1
15-5 41.5% 2.8    1.2 1.3 0.4
14-6 14.4% 1.2    0.2 0.6 0.4 0.0
13-7 3.4% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 11.0% 11.0 6.7 3.2 1.0 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 80.0% 80.0% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.4% 38.3% 38.3% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
18-2 1.1% 37.6% 37.6% 13.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7
17-3 2.5% 35.5% 35.5% 13.6 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.6
16-4 4.1% 29.6% 29.6% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 2.9
15-5 6.8% 22.3% 22.3% 14.6 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.1 5.3
14-6 8.2% 16.5% 16.5% 15.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 6.8
13-7 10.3% 13.5% 13.5% 15.5 0.1 0.5 0.8 8.9
12-8 11.5% 9.1% 9.1% 15.5 0.1 0.4 0.6 10.5
11-9 12.8% 6.0% 6.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 12.1
10-10 11.8% 3.6% 3.6% 15.9 0.0 0.4 11.4
9-11 9.8% 2.4% 2.4% 15.9 0.0 0.2 9.6
8-12 7.6% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 7.5
7-13 5.1% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 5.1
6-14 4.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 4.1
5-15 2.0% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 2.0
4-16 1.0% 1.0
3-17 0.6% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.5
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 9.7% 9.7% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.2 2.9 3.5 90.3 0.0%