Northern Kentucky
Horizon
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.4#241
Expected Predictive Rating-4.1#232
Pace64.6#280
Improvement-1.0#236

Offense
Total Offense-3.4#267
First Shot-4.1#295
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#139
Layup/Dunks-2.7#279
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#70
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#208
Freethrows-2.4#315
Improvement+3.4#38

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#201
First Shot-0.8#203
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#213
Layups/Dunks+1.6#108
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#114
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.9#337
Freethrows+1.7#69
Improvement-4.5#348
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.0% 3.2% 2.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 4.0% 4.9% 0.5%
.500 or above in Conference 51.3% 62.2% 10.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.9% 1.8% 2.0%
First Round2.3% 2.5% 1.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: IU Indianapolis (Home) - 79.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 5
Quad 34 - 74 - 12
Quad 49 - 514 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 82   @ Florida St. L 62-74 10%     0 - 1 -2.6 -9.3 +7.8
  Nov 08, 2024 16   @ Purdue L 50-72 2%     0 - 2 -2.0 -9.4 +4.7
  Nov 14, 2024 192   Nicholls St. L 59-61 50%     0 - 3 -6.4 -14.1 +7.6
  Nov 19, 2024 46   Cincinnati L 60-76 11%     0 - 4 -7.3 -1.6 -7.0
  Nov 27, 2024 143   @ College of Charleston L 64-79 22%     0 - 5 -11.4 -5.0 -6.8
  Nov 30, 2024 340   Bellarmine W 86-70 82%     1 - 5 +1.8 +4.1 -1.9
  Dec 03, 2024 102   @ Akron L 73-86 15%     1 - 6 -6.1 +6.0 -12.7
  Dec 07, 2024 326   @ IU Indianapolis W 66-64 62%     2 - 6 1 - 0 -5.5 -7.0 +1.8
  Dec 15, 2024 181   Norfolk St. W 71-62 47%     3 - 6 +5.3 -0.5 +6.4
  Dec 18, 2024 334   Detroit Mercy W 73-60 80%     4 - 6 2 - 0 -0.4 -1.0 +1.2
  Dec 21, 2024 210   South Carolina St. W 58-47 53%     5 - 6 +5.9 -8.1 +15.3
  Dec 29, 2024 173   @ Robert Morris L 93-97 3OT 27%     5 - 7 2 - 1 -2.0 -3.4 +2.5
  Jan 01, 2025 153   Purdue Fort Wayne W 69-68 OT 41%     6 - 7 3 - 1 -0.9 -5.8 +4.9
  Jan 04, 2025 337   Green Bay W 78-60 82%     7 - 7 4 - 1 +4.0 +7.6 -1.3
  Jan 08, 2025 186   @ Youngstown St. L 61-72 30%     7 - 8 4 - 2 -10.0 -6.8 -3.7
  Jan 11, 2025 198   Oakland L 53-68 51%     7 - 9 4 - 3 -19.6 -10.7 -12.5
  Jan 15, 2025 170   @ Cleveland St. L 58-76 27%     7 - 10 4 - 4 -15.9 -6.3 -11.3
  Jan 18, 2025 220   Wright St. L 70-78 55%     7 - 11 4 - 5 -13.8 -8.0 -5.8
  Jan 24, 2025 130   Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 59-79 36%     7 - 12 4 - 6 -20.8 -11.8 -10.1
  Jan 30, 2025 334   @ Detroit Mercy L 57-68 65%     7 - 13 4 - 7 -19.3 -16.0 -3.6
  Feb 01, 2025 198   @ Oakland W 84-75 32%     8 - 13 5 - 7 +9.5 +10.4 -1.0
  Feb 05, 2025 170   Cleveland St. W 85-75 44%     9 - 13 6 - 7 +7.0 +16.1 -8.6
  Feb 08, 2025 173   Robert Morris L 76-81 45%     9 - 14 6 - 8 -8.1 +3.4 -11.5
  Feb 14, 2025 337   @ Green Bay W 73-60 67%     10 - 14 7 - 8 +4.1 -7.9 +11.5
  Feb 16, 2025 130   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 70-92 21%     10 - 15 7 - 9 -17.7 +9.9 -31.3
  Feb 21, 2025 220   @ Wright St. W 80-76 36%     11 - 15 8 - 9 +3.3 +8.0 -4.4
  Feb 23, 2025 326   IU Indianapolis W 75-67 79%    
  Feb 27, 2025 153   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 70-78 23%    
  Mar 01, 2025 186   Youngstown St. L 69-70 50%    
Projected Record 13 - 16 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 4.1 20.3 8.6 32.9 6th
7th 5.9 36.0 21.4 1.1 64.3 7th
8th 2.8 2.8 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 8.6 40.1 41.7 9.6 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 9.6% 4.7% 4.7% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 9.2
10-10 41.7% 3.1% 3.1% 15.9 0.1 1.2 40.3
9-11 40.1% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 1.1 39.0
8-12 8.6% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.2 8.5
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.6 97.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 15.1 2.2 4.4 73.3 20.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.5%
Lose Out 3.1%