Preseason Rankings
Bellarmine
Atlantic Sun
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating-7.1#299
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace63.8#313
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.3#277
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-3.8#306
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.9% 8.5% 3.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.5 15.2
.500 or above 24.8% 54.3% 23.2%
.500 or above in Conference 39.8% 60.9% 38.7%
Conference Champion 3.7% 9.9% 3.3%
Last Place in Conference 11.4% 4.9% 11.8%
First Four1.0% 0.5% 1.0%
First Round3.3% 8.3% 3.1%
Second Round0.1% 0.6% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Virginia Commonwealth (Away) - 5.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 62 - 10
Quad 410 - 812 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 85   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 58-75 5%    
  Nov 09, 2024 361   VMI W 81-69 86%    
  Nov 13, 2024 328   Southern Indiana W 73-67 70%    
  Nov 16, 2024 194   @ Marshall L 67-76 22%    
  Nov 19, 2024 50   @ Louisville L 62-82 4%    
  Nov 23, 2024 265   Bowling Green W 70-69 53%    
  Nov 30, 2024 174   @ Northern Kentucky L 63-73 20%    
  Dec 04, 2024 238   @ Western Carolina L 65-71 28%    
  Dec 14, 2024 240   Ball St. L 68-69 49%    
  Dec 19, 2024 177   @ Wyoming L 65-74 21%    
  Dec 21, 2024 79   @ Colorado L 60-78 7%    
  Jan 02, 2025 231   @ North Alabama L 67-74 28%    
  Jan 04, 2025 341   @ Central Arkansas W 71-70 54%    
  Jan 09, 2025 222   Jacksonville L 66-67 47%    
  Jan 11, 2025 254   North Florida W 71-70 52%    
  Jan 16, 2025 158   Lipscomb L 71-75 36%    
  Jan 18, 2025 255   @ Eastern Kentucky L 69-74 33%    
  Jan 23, 2025 206   Florida Gulf Coast L 64-66 44%    
  Jan 25, 2025 290   Stetson W 70-68 58%    
  Jan 30, 2025 281   @ Austin Peay L 65-69 36%    
  Feb 01, 2025 158   @ Lipscomb L 68-78 19%    
  Feb 06, 2025 254   @ North Florida L 68-73 32%    
  Feb 08, 2025 222   @ Jacksonville L 63-70 28%    
  Feb 13, 2025 289   Queens W 77-75 58%    
  Feb 15, 2025 351   West Georgia W 74-65 76%    
  Feb 18, 2025 281   Austin Peay W 68-66 56%    
  Feb 20, 2025 255   Eastern Kentucky W 72-71 52%    
  Feb 24, 2025 290   @ Stetson L 67-71 38%    
  Feb 26, 2025 206   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 61-69 26%    
Projected Record 11 - 18 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 3.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.0 4.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.1 2.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 6.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.5 3.1 1.1 0.1 0.0 7.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.3 3.8 1.5 0.1 8.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.5 1.8 0.2 8.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.0 2.8 0.3 0.0 10.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.9 3.3 0.5 0.0 11.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.7 3.5 0.6 0.0 11.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.3 4.3 3.3 0.8 0.0 11.3 10th
11th 0.1 0.9 2.5 3.9 2.6 0.6 0.0 10.6 11th
12th 0.3 1.2 2.0 1.8 1.1 0.3 0.0 6.8 12th
Total 0.3 1.3 2.9 4.8 7.6 9.3 10.8 11.6 11.5 10.4 8.9 7.2 5.4 3.7 2.2 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-2 95.3% 0.5    0.4 0.1 0.0
15-3 76.0% 0.9    0.7 0.3 0.0
14-4 48.6% 1.0    0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 21.0% 0.8    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.4% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.7% 3.7 2.0 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 54.0% 54.0% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.2% 47.8% 47.8% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.5% 28.7% 28.7% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4
15-3 1.2% 29.4% 29.4% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.9
14-4 2.2% 21.0% 21.0% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 1.7
13-5 3.7% 15.4% 15.4% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 3.1
12-6 5.4% 11.3% 11.3% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 4.8
11-7 7.2% 7.3% 7.3% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 6.7
10-8 8.9% 5.0% 5.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 8.5
9-9 10.4% 3.1% 3.1% 15.9 0.0 0.3 10.1
8-10 11.5% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1 11.3
7-11 11.6% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 11.5
6-12 10.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 10.8
5-13 9.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.3
4-14 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 7.6
3-15 4.8% 4.8
2-16 2.9% 2.9
1-17 1.3% 1.3
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.8 96.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%