Ball St.
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.8#288
Expected Predictive Rating-10.1#319
Pace66.5#244
Improvement-1.7#289

Offense
Total Offense-2.8#250
First Shot-0.9#196
After Offensive Rebound-1.9#285
Layup/Dunks-1.3#226
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#281
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#218
Freethrows+3.5#28
Improvement+1.9#48

Defense
Total Defense-4.0#299
First Shot-5.2#334
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#85
Layups/Dunks-1.3#221
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#132
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#202
Freethrows-4.3#357
Improvement-3.6#357
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.0% 2.5% 1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.6 15.8
.500 or above 14.8% 19.9% 6.8%
.500 or above in Conference 38.7% 43.1% 31.8%
Conference Champion 1.5% 1.9% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 8.9% 7.2% 11.6%
First Four1.0% 1.1% 0.8%
First Round1.5% 2.0% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Evansville (Home) - 61.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 32 - 62 - 8
Quad 49 - 911 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 263   @ Georgia St. L 66-71 34%     0 - 1 -7.6 -5.5 -2.2
  Nov 13, 2024 46   @ Dayton L 69-77 4%     0 - 2 +5.6 +0.4 +5.3
  Nov 16, 2024 150   Indiana St. L 84-94 34%     0 - 3 -12.7 -3.9 -7.5
  Nov 20, 2024 323   Detroit Mercy L 59-70 70%     0 - 4 -23.1 -16.5 -7.1
  Nov 25, 2024 220   Eastern Kentucky W 63-61 35%     1 - 4 -0.8 -9.3 +8.6
  Nov 27, 2024 216   Richmond L 60-73 34%     1 - 5 -15.6 -6.4 -10.8
  Dec 08, 2024 269   @ SIU Edwardsville L 69-82 34%     1 - 6 -15.7 +2.2 -18.8
  Dec 14, 2024 343   @ Bellarmine W 86-82 57%     2 - 6 -4.7 +13.4 -17.7
  Dec 21, 2024 290   Evansville W 73-70 61%    
  Jan 04, 2025 113   @ Kent St. L 59-72 11%    
  Jan 07, 2025 209   Miami (OH) L 70-72 44%    
  Jan 11, 2025 267   Bowling Green W 75-73 57%    
  Jan 14, 2025 149   @ Ohio L 71-81 17%    
  Jan 18, 2025 211   Toledo L 77-78 44%    
  Jan 21, 2025 225   @ Central Michigan L 67-74 28%    
  Jan 25, 2025 346   @ Northern Illinois W 73-71 58%    
  Jan 28, 2025 296   Western Michigan W 74-71 61%    
  Feb 01, 2025 330   @ Buffalo W 74-73 50%    
  Feb 04, 2025 163   @ Akron L 71-80 19%    
  Feb 11, 2025 317   Eastern Michigan W 74-69 67%    
  Feb 15, 2025 346   Northern Illinois W 76-68 76%    
  Feb 18, 2025 211   @ Toledo L 74-81 25%    
  Feb 22, 2025 330   Buffalo W 76-70 71%    
  Feb 25, 2025 163   Akron L 74-77 38%    
  Mar 01, 2025 267   @ Bowling Green L 72-76 36%    
  Mar 04, 2025 225   Central Michigan L 70-71 48%    
  Mar 07, 2025 209   @ Miami (OH) L 67-75 25%    
Projected Record 10 - 17 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.2 2.0 0.7 0.1 5.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.7 3.1 0.9 0.1 7.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.7 4.4 1.4 0.1 8.9 5th
6th 0.2 2.6 5.4 2.4 0.1 10.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.2 6.1 3.5 0.4 0.0 12.4 7th
8th 0.2 2.2 6.2 4.4 0.7 0.0 13.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.3 4.7 0.9 0.0 13.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.4 3.9 0.9 0.0 10.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.1 2.6 0.7 0.0 8.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 4.9 12th
Total 0.0 0.4 1.4 3.3 5.9 9.4 12.3 14.2 14.3 12.7 10.4 7.2 4.4 2.4 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 95.5% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 75.5% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
14-4 48.1% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 18.4% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.5% 1.5 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 29.5% 29.5% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.4% 21.4% 21.4% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
14-4 1.1% 10.6% 10.6% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.0
13-5 2.4% 11.2% 11.2% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.2
12-6 4.4% 5.7% 5.7% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 4.1
11-7 7.2% 5.7% 5.7% 15.8 0.1 0.3 6.8
10-8 10.4% 3.1% 3.1% 15.9 0.0 0.3 10.1
9-9 12.7% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.3 12.4
8-10 14.3% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 14.1
7-11 14.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 14.1
6-12 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 12.3
5-13 9.4% 9.4
4-14 5.9% 5.9
3-15 3.3% 3.3
2-16 1.4% 1.4
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 98.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%