Ball St.
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.0#250
Expected Predictive Rating-7.7#292
Pace66.5#233
Improvement+2.8#62

Offense
Total Offense-0.9#201
First Shot+0.7#152
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#286
Layup/Dunks+0.0#190
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#304
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#213
Freethrows+4.1#9
Improvement+4.9#9

Defense
Total Defense-4.1#295
First Shot-4.6#319
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#139
Layups/Dunks-1.9#256
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#84
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#213
Freethrows-3.6#356
Improvement-2.1#292
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.8% 3.9% 2.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.5 15.8
.500 or above 21.1% 35.5% 13.8%
.500 or above in Conference 55.3% 75.5% 45.1%
Conference Champion 0.5% 1.2% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.1% 1.3%
First Four1.4% 1.5% 1.3%
First Round2.1% 3.1% 1.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Michigan (Away) - 33.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 32 - 53 - 8
Quad 410 - 913 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 280   @ Georgia St. L 66-71 47%     0 - 1 -9.2 -6.9 -2.5
  Nov 13, 2024 78   @ Dayton L 69-77 9%     0 - 2 +2.0 -1.4 +3.5
  Nov 16, 2024 213   Indiana St. L 84-94 52%     0 - 3 -15.5 -4.7 -9.5
  Nov 20, 2024 331   Detroit Mercy L 59-70 79%     0 - 4 -24.4 -16.4 -8.5
  Nov 25, 2024 248   Eastern Kentucky W 63-61 49%     1 - 4 -2.8 -10.7 +8.0
  Nov 27, 2024 209   Richmond L 60-73 40%     1 - 5 -15.4 -4.5 -12.5
  Dec 08, 2024 263   @ SIU Edwardsville L 69-82 42%     1 - 6 -16.0 +1.5 -18.4
  Dec 14, 2024 353   @ Bellarmine W 86-82 71%     2 - 6 -6.7 +12.4 -18.8
  Dec 21, 2024 261   Evansville W 80-43 63%     3 - 6 +28.6 +14.2 +17.7
  Jan 04, 2025 159   @ Kent St. W 75-67 22%     4 - 6 1 - 0 +11.0 +3.6 +7.0
  Jan 07, 2025 153   Miami (OH) L 72-80 38%     4 - 7 1 - 1 -10.0 -1.6 -8.4
  Jan 11, 2025 285   Bowling Green W 91-69 68%     5 - 7 2 - 1 +12.1 +9.6 +1.5
  Jan 14, 2025 147   @ Ohio L 71-86 20%     5 - 8 2 - 2 -11.1 +1.9 -13.6
  Jan 18, 2025 194   Toledo L 75-93 47%     5 - 9 2 - 3 -22.3 +3.3 -27.3
  Jan 21, 2025 225   @ Central Michigan L 67-71 34%    
  Jan 25, 2025 356   @ Northern Illinois W 77-71 71%    
  Jan 28, 2025 304   Western Michigan W 78-72 71%    
  Feb 01, 2025 329   @ Buffalo W 76-73 59%    
  Feb 04, 2025 124   @ Akron L 72-82 16%    
  Feb 08, 2025 258   Southern Miss W 76-73 63%    
  Feb 11, 2025 313   Eastern Michigan W 77-71 73%    
  Feb 15, 2025 356   Northern Illinois W 80-68 86%    
  Feb 18, 2025 194   @ Toledo L 76-82 28%    
  Feb 22, 2025 329   Buffalo W 79-71 79%    
  Feb 25, 2025 124   Akron L 74-79 34%    
  Mar 01, 2025 285   @ Bowling Green L 74-75 46%    
  Mar 04, 2025 225   Central Michigan W 70-69 55%    
  Mar 07, 2025 153   @ Miami (OH) L 69-78 21%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 2.3 0.7 0.1 4.3 3rd
4th 0.3 2.7 4.9 2.1 0.1 10.1 4th
5th 0.4 4.5 8.2 3.9 0.4 17.3 5th
6th 0.4 4.5 9.5 5.3 0.4 0.0 20.1 6th
7th 0.3 3.8 9.3 5.4 0.6 0.0 19.6 7th
8th 0.1 2.2 6.4 4.0 0.4 13.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 3.5 2.7 0.4 7.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.6 1.6 0.3 0.0 3.8 10th
11th 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.4 7.8 13.6 18.5 20.2 17.0 10.4 5.5 1.7 0.5 0.1 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 83.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0
14-4 46.0% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 10.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.1% 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.5% 14.0% 14.0% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
13-5 1.7% 10.4% 10.4% 14.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.6
12-6 5.5% 7.7% 7.7% 15.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 5.1
11-7 10.4% 4.0% 4.0% 15.6 0.2 0.3 10.0
10-8 17.0% 4.3% 4.3% 15.9 0.1 0.7 16.3
9-9 20.2% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.6 19.6
8-10 18.5% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.3 18.2
7-11 13.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 13.5
6-12 7.8% 7.8
5-13 3.4% 3.4
4-14 1.1% 1.1
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.1 97.2 0.0%