Ball St.
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -7.5 291
Results Rating -8.1 294
Consistency 0.17 274
Pace 61.3 347
Improvement +4.8 34

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D- 338 F+ D- C D+ C+
Defense C 186 C- C- B- C- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 129 F+ 49% 352 -2.5 274
2 Pt. Jumpers 36% 200 D 33% 334 -1.4 255
Three Pointers 40% 210 D- 30% 329 -3.1 283
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.2 169 F+ -7.0 361
1st FG Attempt F+ 0.88 354
Second Chance D 25.6% 312 F+ 0.87 349 D- 0.22 348
Opponents' Steals C+ 8.8% 118
Other Turnovers C- 7.6% 238
Turnovers C 16.4% 157
Freethrows D+ 0.28 263 D+ 70% 252 D+ 0.20 274
Total Offense D- -7.2 338

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots D+ 42% 281 F+ 15.3% 351
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 30% 106 F+ 8.7% 342
Three Pointers C+ 85% 164 C+ 0.6% 120
Total C- 54% 218 F 8.2% 355


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 273 C- 60% 248 -0.7 152
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 166 C+ 37% 133 -0.1 178
Three Pointers 43% 105 C- 35% 244 +2.1 285
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.2 123 C- +1.4 240
1st FG Attempt C- 1.05 221
Second Chance D+ 33.0% 293 C 1.02 164 C- 0.34 248
Turnovers from Steals B- 11.1% 61
Other Turnovers C- 7.1% 205
Turnovers B- 18.1% 93
Freethrows C+ 0.29 142 F 79% 363 C- 0.23 217
Total Defense C -0.3 186

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 50% 220 D+ 9.0% 253
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 29% 258 C 5.0% 165
Three Pointers C 84% 184 D 0.2% 322
Total C- 58% 243 D+ 4.4% 278

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 19.2 340 17.6 241
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 351 0.15 116
Consistency 0.16 360 0.12 165
Improvement -0.4 207 +5.2 13

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 299 292 281
Results Rating Rank 301 284 277
Conference Record 6 - 12 7 - 11 7 - 11
Conference Finish 10 8 7
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Central Michigan (Home) - 53.9% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 30 - 90 - 13
Quad 410 - 710 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 298 Louisiana W 75 - 64 64% +2  75% 1 - 0 C -0 C+ +2 B+ D+ C+ C -1 C- D B
 Tue, Nov 11 24 @Wisconsin L 55 - 86 2% -19  0% 1 - 1 D- -12 F -12 F+ D+ F C -1 D F+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 301 Arkansas Little Rock L 62 - 68 65% -2  33% 1 - 2 F+ -17 F -16 D- F F C -1 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 201 @Indiana St. L 52 - 70 21% -2  60% 1 - 3 F+ -17 F -18 F D F C -1 C- C B-
 Fri, Nov 28 180 Monmouth L 73 - 80 27% -4  17% 1 - 4 D -8 C+ +2 B F A- F -11 D- F F+
 Sat, Nov 29 325 @Lafayette L 37 - 55 50% -4  21% 1 - 5 F -26 F -37 F F F+ A- +8 A+ F+ D-
 Sun, Nov 30 305 Le Moyne W 96 - 85 54% +0  42% 2 - 5 C+ +2 A+ +21 D+ A+ D F -18 F B- F
 Wed, Dec 3 295 @Evansville L 52 - 64 40% -1  25% 2 - 6 F+ -17 F -23 F F F B+ +6 C+ C A-
 Tue, Dec 9 213 South Dakota St. L 64 - 68 44% -0  54% 2 - 7 D -10 F+ -8 F C A- C- -2 D- D+ B-
 Sun, Dec 14 185 @Campbell L 64 - 69 20% +1  46% 2 - 8 C- -4 F -12 F F+ D- A- +8 A- A C
 Sat, Dec 20 91 Miami (OH) L 77 - 86 16% -3  28% 2 - 9 0 - 1 D+ -6 C+ +2 B- F A+ D- -8 D C- A
 Sat, Jan 3 212 @Buffalo L 72 - 85 23% -14  1% 2 - 10 0 - 2 D- -13 C -0 F B C- F -14 F F A-
 Tue, Jan 6 247 Eastern Michigan L 52 - 74 51% -13  20% 2 - 11 0 - 3 F -30 F -13 F+ F A- F -22 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 194 @Massachusetts L 71 - 79 21% -3  15% 2 - 12 0 - 4 D+ -7 D+ -4 D+ D- B D+ -4 F A+ C-
 Tue, Jan 13 71 @Akron L 77 - 87 5% -11  0% 2 - 13 0 - 5 C +1 B +6 B- C- A D+ -5 C- C F
 Fri, Jan 16 222 Ohio W 76 - 71 47% +8  99% 3 - 13 1 - 5 C -2 C +0 C- F+ C+ C- -2 D+ C B
 Tue, Jan 20 259 @Central Michigan W 68 - 67 32% +5  82% 4 - 13 2 - 5 C -2 C+ +4 C- F A+ D -5 F C B
 Sat, Jan 24 339 Northern Illinois W 58 - 53 77% +6  97% 5 - 13 3 - 5 D -10 F -13 F F+ B+ B- +3 A+ F D-
 Sat, Jan 31 150 @Toledo L 55 - 73 15% -12  2% 5 - 14 3 - 6 D- -15 F -19 F F D- B +4 C- A- A-
 Tue, Feb 3 166 @Bowling Green L 52 - 77 17% -13  0% 5 - 15 3 - 7 F -23 F -14 F D+ B F -11 F C A+
 Sat, Feb 7 354 @Louisiana Monroe W 73 - 68 65% +8  99% 6 - 15 D+ -6 F+ -9 F C F B- +3 A+ F C+
 Wed, Feb 11 212 Buffalo L 53 - 63 44% -5  3% 6 - 16 3 - 8 F+ -16 F -18 F D- F C+ +1 C+ D+ B
 Sat, Feb 14 152 Kent St. L 68 - 75 32% -6  0% 6 - 17 3 - 9 D -10 F -13 F F B B- +3 D+ A B
 Tue, Feb 17 222 @Ohio L 57 - 69 25% -6  13% 6 - 18 3 - 10 D- -13 F+ -10 D- F C+ D -5 D+ A- D
 Fri, Feb 20 71 Akron L 65 - 78 12% -7  8% 6 - 19 3 - 11 D+ -8 D- -8 C D+ D C -1 B+ A D+
 Tue, Feb 24 194 Massachusetts W 74 - 73 OT 40% -8  10% 7 - 19 4 - 11 C- -4 F+ -9 F D B+ B +4 A+ F C+
 Sat, Feb 28 339 @Northern Illinois W 79 - 43 57% +19  94% 8 - 19 5 - 11 A+ +27 A- +10 B C- A+ A+ +20 A+ A+ D
 Tue, Mar 3 280 @Western Michigan W 74 - 71 OT 35% +2  62% 9 - 19 6 - 11 C -1 D- -7 F+ D+ B- B+ +6 C- A D+
 Fri, Mar 6 259 Central Michigan W 67 - 66 54%
Totals 10 - 19 7 - 11 -8 D- -7 C+ F+ C+ C +0 D- D+ D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D- F+ D D- F+ 40% 36% 40% C+ F+ D F+ D- C D+ D+ D+ C C- C+ C- C- 36% 21% 43% C+ C- D+ C C- B- C+ F C-
0.98 49% 33% 30% -7 0 0.88 26% 0.9 .22 16% .28 70% .20 1.09 60% 37% 35% +1 0 1.05 33% 1.0 .34 18% .29 79% .22
Nov
3		 Louisiana C+ C+ F A+ B+ 58% 13% 30% B+ B+ D+ C- D+ C+ A+ D- A C F+ D- A- C- 22% 31% 47% C C- C+ F D B A- A+ A
1.17 61% 0% 58% +8 +2 1.23 29% 1.0 .29 17% .53 68% .36 1.00 64% 44% 29% 0 -3 0.96 26% 1.1 .29 19% .17 56% .10
Nov
11		 Wisconsin F D- F C F 40% 17% 44% B+ F+ D+ D D+ F A+ F B+ C C- A+ F D 37% 2% 61% F+ D F A F+ A+ A+ F A+
0.80 47% 0% 33% -11 +1 0.81 21% 0.9 .18 20% .39 57% .22 1.26 63% 0% 42% +8 +2 1.24 47% 1.0 .47 22% .15 100% .15
Nov
15		 Arkansas Little Rock F D B D+ F+ 41% 11% 48% C+ D- F A+ F F A- D+ B C F A+ F F 41% 34% 24% D+ F F F F A+ C- A+ B
0.92 56% 40% 33% -1 +1 1.02 14% 1.5 .21 22% .36 68% .25 1.01 71% 21% 50% +5 -2 1.10 46% 1.5 .69 34% .25 45% .11
Nov
22		 Indiana St. F F A- F F 34% 30% 36% D- F C+ F D F F A F C D+ F B+ C- 42% 8% 50% C C- F A+ C B- A F C
0.80 33% 50% 21% -12 -2 0.75 34% 0.7 .23 20% .10 80% .08 1.08 65% 75% 29% +2 +2 1.10 35% 0.7 .26 20% .17 100% .17
Nov
28		 Monmouth C+ C+ C- A+ B+ 33% 20% 47% D+ B F+ F F A- F F+ F F B- C F F+ 39% 27% 35% C- D- F+ F+ F F+ D A- C-
1.10 61% 36% 42% +7 0 1.15 24% 0.7 .16 15% .11 67% .07 1.20 53% 38% 47% +5 -1 1.10 38% 1.2 .44 14% .33 68% .23
Nov
29		 Lafayette F F C F F 31% 18% 51% C+ F D+ F F F+ D F D- A- A A+ A+ A+ 43% 28% 30% A- A+ C- F F+ D- F F F
0.60 29% 38% 13% -25 0 0.51 28% 0.4 .12 18% .24 67% .16 0.89 45% 15% 14% -21 -1 0.60 26% 1.2 .32 13% .37 85% .32
Nov
30		 Le Moyne A+ C- F C+ D+ 35% 16% 49% C D+ A+ A+ A+ D A+ D+ A+ F F A F F 25% 15% 60% B F D A+ B- F D+ F F
1.42 56% 13% 36% -3 0 0.96 51% 1.5 .74 16% .50 71% .35 1.26 75% 29% 48% +16 0 1.33 28% 0.7 .20 15% .35 85% .30
Dec
3		 Evansville F F F F F 31% 25% 44% D+ F F F F F C D C- B+ F D- A+ C+ 26% 23% 51% C C+ D- A C A- F+ D- F
0.77 47% 25% 29% -10 -1 0.79 22% 0.4 .10 21% .26 71% .19 0.95 75% 45% 25% -1 -1 0.98 26% 0.9 .24 22% .35 78% .27
Dec
9		 South Dakota St. F+ B- F F F 39% 16% 45% C+ F B F+ C A- B+ D- B- C- C B F D- 49% 18% 33% D D- D- C+ D+ B- B+ C- B
1.01 63% 25% 18% -11 +1 0.82 33% 0.9 .30 11% .35 70% .25 1.07 58% 33% 44% +4 +1 1.12 33% 1.0 .33 17% .21 73% .15
Dec
14		 Campbell F F A+ F F 47% 26% 26% C F C F F+ D- B+ D+ B A- D- C+ A+ B+ 35% 24% 41% A+ A- F A+ A C F A+ C-
0.92 44% 50% 14% -11 0 0.79 32% 0.8 .26 20% .36 70% .25 0.99 65% 33% 20% -7 -1 0.86 42% 0.6 .24 17% .50 55% .28
Dec
20		 Miami (OH) C+ A- A+ D+ B 35% 30% 35% D B- F F+ F A+ C+ B C+ D- B A+ F D- 33% 21% 46% B D B F C- A F+ F F
1.10 68% 50% 32% +6 -1 1.11 13% 0.8 .09 10% .29 78% .22 1.23 56% 20% 55% +10 0 1.21 20% 1.4 .28 20% .39 95% .38
Jan
3		 Buffalo C F F B- F 31% 16% 53% D+ F B B- B C- A+ A A+ F F F F F 43% 9% 48% F+ F F F F A- C- F F
1.11 43% 29% 38% -3 0 0.96 37% 1.0 .37 19% .44 83% .36 1.31 68% 50% 43% +12 +2 1.30 35% 1.8 .61 20% .35 94% .33
Jan
6		 Eastern Michigan F F D- D+ F 43% 20% 36% C+ F+ F+ F F A- C- A+ B F C- F F F 36% 17% 48% F+ F F C F A+ A+ F A
0.90 42% 33% 31% -9 0 0.84 21% 0.3 .06 12% .30 87% .26 1.29 60% 57% 55% +19 0 1.40 48% 1.0 .48 24% .14 83% .11
Jan
10		 Massachusetts D+ D F B D+ 42% 15% 42% B- D+ F B+ D- B F C- F+ D+ F B D- F 33% 20% 47% C+ F B- A+ A+ C- F D+ F
1.03 55% 25% 36% -2 +1 1.00 18% 1.2 .21 15% .31 72% .22 1.15 87% 33% 38% +11 0 1.24 29% 0.4 .13 17% .51 69% .35
Jan
13		 Akron B C+ A+ D- B- 40% 14% 46% B- B- F A+ C- A B+ A- A- D+ C F C- C 38% 7% 55% D- C- A- F C F C F D
1.12 60% 71% 30% +3 +1 1.10 23% 1.3 .29 15% .32 79% .26 1.26 62% 75% 35% +5 +2 1.16 27% 1.6 .42 12% .26 88% .23
Jan
16		 Ohio C C C+ C- C- 36% 23% 41% D C- D- F+ F+ C+ A+ A A+ C- D+ F B+ D- 33% 39% 29% A+ D+ C C C B D+ F F+
1.14 56% 40% 33% -1 0 1.00 28% 0.9 .25 15% .55 81% .44 1.06 63% 53% 29% +5 -3 1.06 28% 1.0 .28 18% .35 79% .27
Jan
20		 Central Michigan C+ C F A- C 41% 22% 37% D+ C- C F F A+ F B- F D A+ C- F F 33% 27% 40% C+ F F+ A C B A- A+ A+
1.15 60% 27% 39% +1 0 1.04 35% 0.7 .24 8% .20 73% .15 1.14 33% 42% 61% +9 -1 1.18 34% 0.9 .31 20% .21 50% .11
Jan
24		 Northern Illinois F C+ F F F 49% 12% 40% B F F A+ F+ B+ B- F D+ B- D+ F A+ A+ 27% 18% 56% A A+ C F F D- C- F D-
0.97 62% 20% 24% -6 +2 0.93 17% 1.4 .24 13% .35 61% .21 0.89 58% 50% 8% -19 0 0.62 29% 1.3 .38 18% .35 76% .27
Jan
31		 Toledo F F C- F F 43% 18% 39% C F D- F F D- A+ C A+ B F C+ C+ C- 33% 24% 43% C+ C- A C+ A- A- C+ F C-
0.81 42% 38% 24% -13 +1 0.77 28% 0.4 .10 21% .50 70% .35 1.08 69% 42% 33% +4 -1 1.08 21% 1.0 .21 19% .26 86% .22
Feb
3		 Bowling Green F C- C- F F 34% 23% 43% D F F A+ D+ B C F F F F A+ F F 42% 21% 37% B+ F D- B+ C A+ C F F+
0.83 56% 36% 15% -13 -1 0.74 16% 1.5 .24 16% .32 47% .15 1.23 78% 22% 56% +17 0 1.37 32% 0.7 .23 22% .31 93% .29
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Louisiana Monroe F+ F A- D+ F 45% 24% 31% D+ F C+ C C F A- A A B- F B+ A+ A+ 29% 31% 40% A A+ D F F C+ F F F
1.05 45% 50% 33% -3 0 0.96 37% 1.1 .42 20% .33 78% .25 0.98 67% 31% 12% -13 -2 0.71 28% 1.3 .38 17% .63 83% .52
Feb
11		 Buffalo F F F D F 45% 11% 43% B F C- F D- F F B- F+ C+ D+ C- B B- 43% 12% 45% D- C+ F+ B D+ B C- F F
0.90 45% 20% 32% -10 +2 0.86 31% 0.7 .23 22% .19 78% .15 1.06 61% 40% 32% 0 +1 1.05 32% 1.0 .32 19% .35 88% .31
Feb
14		 Kent St. F F F D+ F 49% 9% 42% A- F F D- F B A+ C+ A+ B- B F D D+ 40% 12% 48% D- D+ A- A- A B D+ B+ C
0.94 42% 0% 32% -13 +2 0.81 20% 0.9 .18 14% .48 73% .35 1.03 50% 50% 38% +1 +1 1.06 29% 0.9 .26 21% .40 70% .28
Feb
17		 Ohio F+ D+ F D F+ 53% 18% 29% B D- D+ F F C+ D F F D C+ D- C- D+ 36% 23% 41% C D+ C+ A+ A- D F F F
0.95 54% 25% 31% -6 +1 0.93 31% 0.6 .19 15% .28 57% .16 1.15 56% 50% 33% +2 0 1.05 27% 0.7 .18 13% .41 81% .33
Feb
20		 Akron D- F F A+ C- 40% 13% 48% B- C D C+ D+ D F F+ F C D+ B- A+ A 46% 14% 40% D B+ C- A+ A D+ C B C
0.97 37% 17% 48% -1 +1 1.02 27% 1.0 .27 21% .17 67% .11 1.16 65% 38% 26% -2 +1 1.02 34% 0.8 .29 15% .26 73% .19
Feb
24		 Massachusetts F+ D- D F F 42% 15% 42% B- F B+ F D B+ D A C B A A+ A+ A+ 42% 20% 38% D+ A+ F D F C+ B+ F C
1.01 52% 33% 24% -10 +1 0.85 34% 0.7 .23 14% .35 82% .28 0.99 48% 18% 24% -14 0 0.75 42% 1.3 .53 19% .27 81% .22
Feb
28		 Northern Illinois A- C+ F A+ B 44% 13% 43% C+ B D- A- C- A+ F A F A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ 35% 25% 40% A A+ A+ B- A+ D F F F
1.26 63% 29% 43% +7 +1 1.19 26% 1.3 .32 11% .18 80% .14 0.68 21% 30% 25% -20 -1 0.60 11% 0.8 .09 19% .45 74% .33
Mar
3		 Western Michigan D- D- F C- F 65% 13% 22% A F+ F+ A D+ B- C- F F+ B+ A+ F F D 31% 39% 31% A+ C- A+ C+ A D+ F F+ F
1.03 53% 14% 33% -7 +3 0.95 22% 1.4 .30 11% .30 58% .17 0.99 40% 47% 40% +1 -3 0.98 18% 1.0 .18 15% .40 79% .31



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 38.5 38.5 7th
8th 15.4 15.4 8th
9th 9th
10th 46.1 46.1 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 46.1 53.9 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11 53.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.1 53.8
6-12 46.1% 46.1
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 99.9 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.9%
Lose Out 46.1%