Ball St.
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.3#310
Expected Predictive Rating-11.7#324
Pace64.2#314
Improvement-1.1#259

Offense
Total Offense-5.2#310
First Shot-4.5#297
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#218
Layup/Dunks-3.8#309
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#248
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#160
Freethrows-0.1#185
Improvement-1.9#327

Defense
Total Defense-3.1#268
First Shot-2.6#261
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#226
Layups/Dunks-0.2#180
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#176
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#319
Freethrows+1.5#101
Improvement+0.8#112
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.5 15.7
.500 or above 1.3% 3.0% 0.6%
.500 or above in Conference 10.7% 14.8% 8.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 27.1% 21.7% 29.5%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Dakota St. (Home) - 30.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 82 - 12
Quad 46 - 88 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 319 Louisiana W 75-64 64%     1 - 0 -0.9 +5.5 -5.5
  Tue, Nov 11 30 @Wisconsin L 55-86 2%     1 - 1 -14.4 -9.0 -6.1
  Sat, Nov 15 315 Arkansas Little Rock L 62-68 63%     1 - 2 -17.6 -13.4 -4.5
  Sat, Nov 22 198 @Indiana St. L 52-70 20%     1 - 3 -17.4 -14.1 -4.7
  Fri, Nov 28 207 Monmouth L 73-80 30%     1 - 4 -9.8 +2.7 -12.9
  Sat, Nov 29 327 @Lafayette L 37-55 44%     1 - 5 -24.8 -33.0 +5.7
  Sun, Nov 30 306 Le Moyne W 96-85 49%     2 - 5 +2.9 +19.3 -16.0
  Wed, Dec 3 265 @Evansville L 52-64 29%     2 - 6 -14.6 -17.9 +2.8
  Tue, Dec 9 153 South Dakota St. L 67-72 30%    
  Sun, Dec 14 217 @Campbell L 68-76 23%    
  Sat, Dec 20 112 Miami (OH) L 69-78 20%    
  Sat, Jan 3 223 @Buffalo L 67-75 24%    
  Tue, Jan 6 205 Eastern Michigan L 66-69 40%    
  Sat, Jan 10 167 @Massachusetts L 66-77 17%    
  Tue, Jan 13 54 @Akron L 67-88 2%    
  Fri, Jan 16 190 Ohio L 72-75 38%    
  Tue, Jan 20 309 @Central Michigan L 68-71 39%    
  Sat, Jan 24 333 Northern Illinois W 74-69 67%    
  Sat, Jan 31 163 @Toledo L 68-79 17%    
  Tue, Feb 3 129 @Bowling Green L 63-76 11%    
  Wed, Feb 11 223 Buffalo L 70-72 45%    
  Sat, Feb 14 121 Kent St. L 72-80 23%    
  Tue, Feb 17 190 @Ohio L 69-78 20%    
  Sat, Feb 21 54 Akron L 70-85 8%    
  Tue, Feb 24 167 Massachusetts L 69-74 34%    
  Sat, Feb 28 333 @Northern Illinois L 71-72 47%    
  Tue, Mar 3 245 @Western Michigan L 67-74 27%    
  Fri, Mar 6 309 Central Michigan W 71-68 60%    
Projected Record 8 - 20 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.6 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 1.3 0.3 0.0 2.6 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 2.2 0.8 0.0 4.1 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 2.9 1.6 0.2 0.0 5.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 3.8 3.1 0.4 8.2 8th
9th 0.7 4.2 4.9 1.0 0.0 10.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 4.2 6.7 2.1 0.1 13.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.8 4.7 7.5 3.2 0.2 0.0 16.3 11th
12th 0.1 1.4 5.7 7.5 3.4 0.3 0.0 18.5 12th
13th 0.6 3.0 5.6 5.4 2.2 0.3 0.0 17.1 13th
Total 0.6 3.1 7.0 11.9 14.8 16.1 15.3 12.1 8.4 5.4 3.0 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4 42.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 1.7% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.5% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.1% 4.8% 4.8% 14.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.2% 5.1% 5.1% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.2
12-6 0.6% 2.7% 2.7% 15.0 0.0 0.6
11-7 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 15.3 0.0 0.0 1.4
10-8 3.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 3.0
9-9 5.4% 0.9% 0.9% 15.9 0.0 0.0 5.3
8-10 8.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 8.4
7-11 12.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.1
6-12 15.3% 15.3
5-13 16.1% 16.1
4-14 14.8% 14.8
3-15 11.9% 11.9
2-16 7.0% 7.0
1-17 3.1% 3.1
0-18 0.6% 0.6
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%