IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Richmond
Atlantic 10
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating	-2.4	#209
Expected Predictive Rating	-5.6	#256

Pace	65.1	#265
Improvement	+4.2	#28

Offense
Total Offense	-3.1	#254

First Shot	+1.7	#124
After Offensive Rebound	-4.8	#361

Layup/Dunks	-4.2	#321
2 Pt Jumpshots	+0.3	#158
3 Pt Jumpshots	+0.3	#172
Freethrows	+5.4	#2

Improvement	+0.6	#139

Defense
Total Defense	+0.7	#144

First Shot	+2.0	#112
After Offensive Rebounds	-1.3	#293

Layups/Dunks	+5.4	#31
2 Pt Jumpshots	-0.7	#258
3 Pt Jumpshots	-1.9	#267
Freethrows	-0.7	#237

Improvement	+3.6	#27

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	0.2%	0.4%	0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.4	15.3	16.0

.500 or above	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%
.500 or above in Conference	4.8%	9.2%	1.6%
Conference Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Last Place in Conference	23.7%	13.7%	31.0%

First Four	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
First Round	0.2%	0.3%	0.0%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Davidson (Home) - 42.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 2	0 - 3
Quad 2	1 - 5	1 - 8
Quad 3	4 - 9	5 - 18
Quad 4	4 - 4	9 - 21

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 09, 2024	217	Marist	L	72-79	63%	0 - 1			-12.9	+2.5	-15.7
Nov 13, 2024	224	@ Charlotte	L	48-65	44%	0 - 2			-17.9	-21.6	+2.1
Nov 16, 2024	265	@ Bucknell	L	76-80 2OT	53%	0 - 3			-7.2	-8.5	+2.0
Nov 20, 2024	200	Maine	W	70-66	58%	1 - 3			-0.6	-0.1	-0.3
Nov 26, 2024	121	Louisiana Tech	L	62-65	31%	1 - 4			-0.4	-4.2	+3.5
Nov 27, 2024	249	Ball St.	W	73-60	60%	2 - 4			+8.1	+5.4	+4.3
Dec 08, 2024	2	@ Auburn	L	54-98	1%	2 - 5			-18.2	-12.2	-4.0
Dec 14, 2024	139	Belmont	L	86-93	45%	2 - 6			-8.2	+2.9	-10.5
Dec 18, 2024	194	@ William & Mary	L	87-93	36%	2 - 7			-4.8	+16.2	-21.3
Dec 21, 2024	329	VMI	W	78-71	84%	3 - 7			-6.1	+4.5	-10.1
Dec 28, 2024	168	Florida Gulf Coast	L	57-75	53%	3 - 8			-21.1	-13.9	-8.3
Dec 31, 2024	119	George Washington	W	66-61	41%	4 - 8	1 - 0		+5.0	-1.9	+7.2
Jan 04, 2025	170	@ Massachusetts	W	72-64	32%	5 - 8	2 - 0		+10.3	+5.1	+5.7
Jan 08, 2025	86	@ George Mason	L	58-64	14%	5 - 9	2 - 1		+3.4	+3.9	-1.7
Jan 11, 2025	109	Rhode Island	L	64-67 OT	38%	5 - 10	2 - 2		-2.3	-10.5	+8.3
Jan 15, 2025	96	@ St. Bonaventure	L	49-63	16%	5 - 11	2 - 3		-5.9	-7.7	-1.5
Jan 18, 2025	102	Saint Louis	L	59-63	36%	5 - 12	2 - 4		-2.7	-16.2	+13.6
Jan 25, 2025	120	Davidson	L	68-70	42%
Jan 29, 2025	119	@ George Washington	L	66-74	22%
Feb 01, 2025	50	@ Virginia Commonwealth	L	58-74	7%
Feb 05, 2025	116	Duquesne	L	63-66	41%
Feb 08, 2025	120	@ Davidson	L	65-73	22%
Feb 11, 2025	136	Loyola Chicago	L	69-70	46%
Feb 15, 2025	220	Fordham	W	73-69	63%
Feb 19, 2025	191	@ La Salle	L	69-73	35%
Feb 22, 2025	90	@ Saint Joseph's	L	63-74	14%
Feb 25, 2025	50	Virginia Commonwealth	L	61-71	18%
Mar 01, 2025	76	@ Dayton	L	62-74	12%
Mar 08, 2025	86	George Mason	L	60-66	28%
Projected Record						9 - 20	6 - 12

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.0							0.0	1st
2nd												0.0	0.0	0.0							0.0	2nd
3rd											0.1	0.1	0.0								0.2	3rd
4th											0.1	0.2	0.0								0.3	4th
5th										0.1	0.3	0.0									0.4	5th
6th									0.0	0.5	0.4	0.0									0.9	6th
7th									0.3	1.1	0.1										1.5	7th
8th								0.1	1.3	1.2	0.1										2.6	8th
9th								0.8	2.6	0.5											3.8	9th
10th							0.2	3.2	2.3	0.1											5.8	10th
11th						0.1	2.5	5.6	0.8												9.0	11th
12th				0.0	0.1	2.0	7.7	4.3	0.2												14.2	12th
13th				0.1	2.4	9.0	8.1	0.9	0.0												20.5	13th
14th			0.4	4.1	10.7	10.3	2.5	0.1													28.1	14th
15th			1.9	5.2	4.3	1.1	0.1														12.6	15th

Total			2.3	9.4	17.5	22.5	21.1	14.9	7.5	3.4	1.0	0.3	0.0	0.0							Total

Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5	50.0%	0.0				0.0
12-6	25.0%	0.0				0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	0.0%	0.0				0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5	0.0%																							0.0
12-6	0.0%																				0.0			0.0
11-7	0.3%		10.0%	10.0%		14.0															0.0			0.3
10-8	1.0%																							1.0
9-9	3.4%		0.6%	0.6%		15.5																0.0	0.0	3.4
8-10	7.5%		0.5%	0.5%		15.5																0.0	0.0	7.5
7-11	14.9%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	14.8
6-12	21.1%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	21.1
5-13	22.5%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	22.5
4-14	17.5%																							17.5
3-15	9.4%																							9.4
2-16	2.3%																							2.3
1-17
0-18

Total	100%		0.2%	0.2%	0.0%	15.4															0.0	0.0	0.1	99.8		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	1.8%