Massachusetts
Atlantic 10
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.4#168
Expected Predictive Rating-3.0#215
Pace75.0#37
Improvement+3.1#61

Offense
Total Offense-2.2#233
First Shot-3.6#283
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#99
Layup/Dunks+1.8#115
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#194
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.5#335
Freethrows+0.4#152
Improvement-0.7#215

Defense
Total Defense+1.8#121
First Shot+1.9#111
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#202
Layups/Dunks-0.3#180
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#12
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#190
Freethrows-0.7#239
Improvement+3.7#28
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 14.8 15.9
.500 or above 0.2% 0.8% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 14.9% 37.9% 6.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.0% 0.4%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: George Washington (Away) - 27.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 51 - 8
Quad 35 - 76 - 16
Quad 46 - 412 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 355   New Hampshire W 103-74 92%     1 - 0 +12.7 +10.6 -1.4
  Nov 08, 2024 41   @ West Virginia L 69-75 9%     1 - 1 +8.6 +3.8 +5.0
  Nov 13, 2024 123   Louisiana Tech L 66-76 40%     1 - 2 -7.9 -6.5 -1.4
  Nov 16, 2024 227   Hofstra L 71-75 OT 71%     1 - 3 -10.1 -3.4 -6.6
  Nov 23, 2024 155   Temple L 80-87 47%     1 - 4 -6.5 +1.3 -7.5
  Nov 24, 2024 82   Florida St. L 59-92 24%     1 - 5 -26.1 -10.2 -14.8
  Nov 27, 2024 251   @ Harvard W 62-54 58%     2 - 5 +5.5 -7.1 +13.2
  Dec 01, 2024 346   NJIT W 80-68 91%     3 - 5 -3.2 +5.7 -8.4
  Dec 04, 2024 197   Central Connecticut St. L 69-73 66%     3 - 6 -8.6 -2.0 -6.7
  Dec 07, 2024 225   Umass Lowell L 83-96 71%     3 - 7 -19.0 -8.2 -8.9
  Dec 18, 2024 212   Northeastern W 77-72 68%     4 - 7 -0.2 -6.0 +5.3
  Dec 21, 2024 65   Arizona St. L 62-78 20%     4 - 8 -7.7 -7.0 -0.3
  Dec 31, 2024 78   @ Saint Joseph's L 72-81 17%     4 - 9 0 - 1 +0.9 +3.2 -2.0
  Jan 04, 2025 218   Richmond L 64-72 70%     4 - 10 0 - 2 -13.7 -7.9 -6.3
  Jan 08, 2025 83   Dayton W 76-72 33%     5 - 10 1 - 2 +8.2 +2.9 +5.4
  Jan 11, 2025 75   @ George Mason L 70-77 16%     5 - 11 1 - 3 +3.1 +7.3 -4.1
  Jan 15, 2025 204   @ Fordham W 120-118 3OT 48%     6 - 11 2 - 3 +2.2 +5.2 -3.7
  Jan 19, 2025 236   La Salle W 82-60 72%     7 - 11 3 - 3 +15.4 -3.7 +16.3
  Jan 22, 2025 117   George Washington W 74-61 48%     8 - 11 4 - 3 +13.2 +3.8 +9.6
  Jan 29, 2025 121   @ Rhode Island L 82-88 31%     8 - 12 4 - 4 -1.2 +5.0 -5.7
  Feb 01, 2025 132   @ Duquesne W 62-53 33%     9 - 12 5 - 4 +13.2 -7.6 +20.7
  Feb 04, 2025 109   Saint Louis L 71-73 45%     9 - 13 5 - 5 -1.2 +0.8 -2.0
  Feb 09, 2025 236   @ La Salle W 78-55 54%     10 - 13 6 - 5 +21.5 +11.9 +11.6
  Feb 12, 2025 129   Davidson L 68-77 52%     10 - 14 6 - 6 -9.8 -2.9 -7.5
  Feb 15, 2025 106   St. Bonaventure L 59-73 43%     10 - 15 6 - 7 -12.5 -12.8 +0.6
  Feb 19, 2025 34   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 51-80 8%     10 - 16 6 - 8 -13.3 -7.4 -9.3
  Feb 22, 2025 117   @ George Washington L 70-76 28%    
  Mar 01, 2025 121   Rhode Island L 76-77 50%    
  Mar 05, 2025 106   @ St. Bonaventure L 65-72 24%    
  Mar 08, 2025 110   Loyola Chicago L 72-73 47%    
Projected Record 11 - 19 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.3 0.3 4th
5th 0.5 0.9 1.4 5th
6th 0.3 5.3 0.8 6.3 6th
7th 5.2 6.3 0.0 11.5 7th
8th 0.3 13.0 0.9 14.2 8th
9th 4.7 10.4 0.0 15.1 9th
10th 0.3 14.5 3.2 18.0 10th
11th 5.0 14.0 0.3 19.4 11th
12th 9.4 3.3 12.7 12th
13th 1.3 0.0 1.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 15th
Total 16.0 36.8 32.3 12.9 2.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 13.8 0.0 0.0 1.9
9-9 12.9% 0.7% 0.7% 15.1 0.1 0.0 12.9
8-10 32.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 32.2
7-11 36.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.1 36.8
6-12 16.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 8.0%