Arizona St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.3#65
Expected Predictive Rating+9.0#64
Pace71.0#102
Improvement-3.5#315

Offense
Total Offense+3.2#89
First Shot+2.5#105
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#140
Layup/Dunks-2.8#286
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#88
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#88
Freethrows+0.8#129
Improvement-1.3#248

Defense
Total Defense+5.1#56
First Shot+2.7#86
After Offensive Rebounds+2.4#24
Layups/Dunks+3.0#76
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#321
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#206
Freethrows+2.0#59
Improvement-2.2#297
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 2.3% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.8% 2.3% 0.1%
Average Seed 10.9 10.9 11.0
.500 or above 4.0% 10.6% 1.1%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 11.9% 3.3% 15.8%
First Four0.6% 1.7% 0.1%
First Round0.5% 1.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.2% 0.5% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kansas St. (Away) - 31.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 92 - 9
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 13
Quad 23 - 37 - 16
Quad 33 - 210 - 18
Quad 43 - 014 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 229   Idaho St. W 55-48 91%     1 - 0 +0.8 -18.6 +19.8
  Nov 08, 2024 60   Santa Clara W 81-74 45%     2 - 0 +16.7 +11.8 +4.9
  Nov 10, 2024 11   @ Gonzaga L 80-88 12%     2 - 1 +12.9 +13.2 -0.1
  Nov 14, 2024 89   Grand Canyon W 87-76 60%     3 - 1 +16.8 +14.2 +2.0
  Nov 17, 2024 126   St. Thomas W 81-66 81%     4 - 1 +14.2 +4.8 +9.7
  Nov 20, 2024 242   Cal Poly W 93-89 92%     5 - 1 -3.0 +5.4 -8.8
  Nov 28, 2024 38   New Mexico W 85-82 35%     6 - 1 +15.4 +16.1 -0.8
  Nov 29, 2024 30   St. Mary's W 68-64 27%     7 - 1 +18.7 +6.8 +12.0
  Dec 03, 2024 314   San Diego W 90-53 96%     8 - 1 +25.3 +6.7 +16.2
  Dec 14, 2024 4   Florida L 66-83 10%     8 - 2 +5.2 -1.9 +8.4
  Dec 21, 2024 168   Massachusetts W 78-62 80%     9 - 2 +15.6 +5.3 +10.0
  Dec 31, 2024 26   @ BYU L 56-76 20%     9 - 3 0 - 1 -2.6 -6.1 +1.8
  Jan 04, 2025 91   Colorado W 81-61 70%     10 - 3 1 - 1 +23.0 +9.6 +13.0
  Jan 08, 2025 19   @ Kansas L 55-74 17%     10 - 4 1 - 2 -0.3 -3.7 +2.5
  Jan 11, 2025 24   Baylor L 66-72 OT 33%     10 - 5 1 - 3 +6.8 -2.1 +8.9
  Jan 14, 2025 81   Central Florida L 89-95 65%     10 - 6 1 - 4 -1.5 +11.7 -12.9
  Jan 18, 2025 46   @ Cincinnati L 60-67 30%     10 - 7 1 - 5 +6.8 -0.1 +6.4
  Jan 21, 2025 41   @ West Virginia W 65-57 27%     11 - 7 2 - 5 +22.6 +9.8 +13.8
  Jan 25, 2025 9   Iowa St. L 61-76 23%     11 - 8 2 - 6 +1.1 -2.5 +3.4
  Jan 28, 2025 91   @ Colorado W 70-68 51%     12 - 8 3 - 6 +10.1 +3.0 +7.1
  Feb 01, 2025 8   Arizona L 72-81 23%     12 - 9 3 - 7 +7.2 +3.3 +4.5
  Feb 04, 2025 56   Kansas St. L 70-71 51%     12 - 10 3 - 8 +7.0 +7.3 -0.3
  Feb 09, 2025 92   @ Oklahoma St. L 73-86 51%     12 - 11 3 - 9 -4.9 -1.9 -1.8
  Feb 12, 2025 10   @ Texas Tech L 106-111 2OT 12%     12 - 12 3 - 10 +16.0 +21.5 -4.6
  Feb 15, 2025 64   TCU L 70-74 60%     12 - 13 3 - 11 +1.8 -1.5 +3.6
  Feb 18, 2025 3   Houston L 65-80 14%     12 - 14 3 - 12 +4.9 +10.3 -7.4
  Feb 23, 2025 56   @ Kansas St. L 70-75 31%    
  Feb 26, 2025 26   BYU L 73-77 37%    
  Mar 01, 2025 68   @ Utah L 73-75 39%    
  Mar 04, 2025 8   @ Arizona L 69-82 10%    
  Mar 08, 2025 10   Texas Tech L 69-77 25%    
Projected Record 13 - 18 4 - 16




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 10th
11th 0.2 0.1 0.4 11th
12th 0.5 1.1 0.1 1.6 12th
13th 1.1 5.1 1.1 7.3 13th
14th 1.9 13.8 5.5 0.1 0.0 21.3 14th
15th 16.7 34.9 14.4 0.6 66.6 15th
16th 2.1 0.6 0.0 2.7 16th
Total 18.7 37.4 29.3 11.7 2.6 0.3 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12 0.3% 78.1% 78.1% 10.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 78.1%
7-13 2.6% 16.2% 16.2% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 2.2 16.2%
6-14 11.7% 1.0% 1.0% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 11.6 1.0%
5-15 29.3% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 29.3
4-16 37.4% 37.4
3-17 18.7% 18.7
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.8% 0.0% 0.8% 10.9 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.1 99.2 0.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 18.7%