Arizona St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.3#53
Expected Predictive Rating+17.7#10
Pace71.5#109
Improvement+1.3#53

Offense
Total Offense+4.0#67
First Shot+5.3#49
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#250
Layup/Dunks-3.5#290
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#66
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.1#30
Freethrows+0.2#174
Improvement+2.0#11

Defense
Total Defense+5.4#44
First Shot+5.3#45
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#186
Layups/Dunks+4.5#53
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#272
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#214
Freethrows+3.1#44
Improvement-0.6#271
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.3% 1.3% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 6.3% 6.5% 1.1%
Top 6 Seed 15.8% 16.2% 4.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 41.6% 42.4% 18.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 41.0% 41.8% 18.1%
Average Seed 7.5 7.5 8.2
.500 or above 57.4% 58.5% 27.9%
.500 or above in Conference 33.3% 33.9% 18.0%
Conference Champion 0.9% 1.0% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 10.2% 9.9% 19.7%
First Four7.2% 7.3% 4.2%
First Round37.9% 38.7% 16.1%
Second Round20.8% 21.3% 7.9%
Sweet Sixteen7.5% 7.7% 2.6%
Elite Eight2.6% 2.7% 0.7%
Final Four1.0% 1.0% 0.1%
Championship Game0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal Poly (Home) - 96.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 82 - 8
Quad 1b2 - 44 - 11
Quad 25 - 39 - 14
Quad 34 - 113 - 15
Quad 44 - 016 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 236   Idaho St. W 55-48 92%     1 - 0 +0.3 -15.4 +16.1
  Nov 08, 2024 99   Santa Clara W 81-74 66%     2 - 0 +12.2 +8.8 +3.4
  Nov 10, 2024 1   @ Gonzaga L 80-88 8%     2 - 1 +16.9 +14.1 +3.1
  Nov 14, 2024 89   Grand Canyon W 87-76 63%     3 - 1 +16.8 +11.0 +5.2
  Nov 17, 2024 163   St. Thomas W 81-66 88%     4 - 1 +11.6 +7.0 +4.9
  Nov 20, 2024 294   Cal Poly W 85-66 97%    
  Nov 28, 2024 63   New Mexico W 80-79 53%    
  Dec 03, 2024 298   San Diego W 84-64 97%    
  Dec 14, 2024 21   Florida L 77-82 33%    
  Dec 21, 2024 129   Massachusetts W 77-70 74%    
  Dec 31, 2024 34   @ BYU L 73-79 31%    
  Jan 04, 2025 70   Colorado W 74-70 65%    
  Jan 08, 2025 6   @ Kansas L 68-80 13%    
  Jan 11, 2025 11   Baylor L 71-75 35%    
  Jan 14, 2025 71   Central Florida W 75-71 65%    
  Jan 18, 2025 18   @ Cincinnati L 69-77 25%    
  Jan 21, 2025 76   @ West Virginia L 73-74 46%    
  Jan 25, 2025 12   Iowa St. L 68-72 36%    
  Jan 28, 2025 70   @ Colorado L 71-73 44%    
  Feb 01, 2025 13   Arizona L 77-80 39%    
  Feb 04, 2025 66   Kansas St. W 73-69 64%    
  Feb 09, 2025 86   @ Oklahoma St. L 75-76 49%    
  Feb 12, 2025 14   @ Texas Tech L 68-77 22%    
  Feb 15, 2025 60   TCU W 76-72 62%    
  Feb 18, 2025 4   Houston L 64-71 27%    
  Feb 23, 2025 66   @ Kansas St. L 70-72 43%    
  Feb 26, 2025 34   BYU W 76-75 51%    
  Mar 01, 2025 54   @ Utah L 74-77 40%    
  Mar 04, 2025 13   @ Arizona L 74-83 22%    
  Mar 08, 2025 14   Texas Tech L 71-74 40%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.6 0.7 0.1 3.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 2.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 4.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 2.7 1.9 0.3 0.0 5.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.9 2.9 0.6 0.0 7.0 7th
8th 0.2 2.4 3.9 1.2 0.1 0.0 7.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.9 4.5 2.0 0.2 0.0 8.7 9th
10th 0.0 1.1 4.4 3.1 0.4 0.0 9.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 3.5 4.0 1.0 0.0 9.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 2.6 4.4 1.6 0.1 9.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.1 2.3 0.3 8.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.5 2.5 0.5 0.0 8.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.8 2.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 7.4 15th
16th 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.9 1.3 0.4 0.0 5.7 16th
Total 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.6 6.0 8.3 10.4 11.9 12.4 11.6 10.1 8.1 5.9 4.2 2.4 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 85.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
18-2 91.9% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 74.8% 0.2    0.2 0.1 0.0
16-4 44.0% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 16.5% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 2.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.9% 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.1% 100.0% 24.3% 75.7% 1.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.3% 100.0% 15.7% 84.3% 2.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.7% 100.0% 10.3% 89.7% 2.6 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 1.4% 100.0% 8.1% 91.9% 3.3 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 2.4% 100.0% 6.6% 93.4% 4.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 4.2% 99.9% 4.3% 95.6% 5.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-8 5.9% 99.0% 2.2% 96.8% 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 1.5 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.0%
11-9 8.1% 96.0% 1.4% 94.6% 7.4 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 1.7 1.4 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.3 95.9%
10-10 10.1% 85.9% 0.7% 85.2% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.5 0.1 1.4 85.8%
9-11 11.6% 58.5% 0.6% 57.9% 10.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.6 2.7 0.5 0.0 4.8 58.2%
8-12 12.4% 21.9% 0.2% 21.6% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.6 0.5 0.0 9.7 21.7%
7-13 11.9% 4.6% 0.1% 4.5% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 11.4 4.5%
6-14 10.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.3 0.4%
5-15 8.3% 8.3
4-16 6.0% 6.0
3-17 3.6% 3.6
2-18 1.7% 1.7
1-19 0.6% 0.6
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 41.6% 1.0% 40.6% 7.5 0.4 0.9 2.1 2.9 4.4 5.1 4.7 4.4 4.5 4.5 6.5 1.3 0.0 0.0 58.4 41.0%