Preseason Rankings
Central Florida
Big 12
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+7.9#71
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.7#108
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.3#90
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.6#48
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.4% 0.8% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 1.3% 2.4% 0.5%
Top 4 Seed 4.8% 8.1% 2.2%
Top 6 Seed 10.4% 16.4% 5.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.7% 40.4% 19.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 28.0% 39.5% 19.3%
Average Seed 7.5 7.2 7.9
.500 or above 50.2% 65.8% 38.4%
.500 or above in Conference 27.9% 36.3% 21.4%
Conference Champion 0.8% 1.4% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 15.2% 10.2% 19.0%
First Four4.3% 5.1% 3.6%
First Round26.5% 37.7% 17.9%
Second Round15.2% 22.4% 9.7%
Sweet Sixteen5.9% 9.0% 3.5%
Elite Eight2.4% 3.6% 1.4%
Final Four0.9% 1.4% 0.5%
Championship Game0.3% 0.6% 0.2%
National Champion0.1% 0.2% 0.1%

Next Game: Texas A&M (Home) - 43.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 11
Quad 24 - 37 - 14
Quad 34 - 111 - 15
Quad 45 - 016 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 19   Texas A&M L 70-72 43%    
  Nov 08, 2024 180   Purdue Fort Wayne W 81-69 86%    
  Nov 12, 2024 97   Florida Atlantic W 76-71 68%    
  Nov 19, 2024 336   Tennessee Tech W 80-58 98%    
  Nov 22, 2024 44   Wisconsin L 69-71 42%    
  Nov 27, 2024 200   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 83-70 86%    
  Dec 01, 2024 163   California Baptist W 73-62 83%    
  Dec 08, 2024 221   Tarleton St. W 78-64 88%    
  Dec 14, 2024 148   Tulsa W 79-72 73%    
  Dec 21, 2024 222   Jacksonville W 76-62 88%    
  Dec 31, 2024 21   @ Texas Tech L 67-75 25%    
  Jan 05, 2025 2   Kansas L 70-78 25%    
  Jan 08, 2025 79   Colorado W 73-70 62%    
  Jan 11, 2025 11   @ Arizona L 72-83 17%    
  Jan 14, 2025 73   @ Arizona St. L 71-74 41%    
  Jan 18, 2025 3   Houston L 62-70 26%    
  Jan 21, 2025 8   @ Iowa St. L 64-75 17%    
  Jan 25, 2025 53   TCU W 75-74 55%    
  Jan 28, 2025 2   @ Kansas L 67-81 12%    
  Feb 01, 2025 32   BYU L 74-75 47%    
  Feb 05, 2025 27   Cincinnati L 71-72 47%    
  Feb 08, 2025 9   @ Baylor L 66-77 18%    
  Feb 11, 2025 8   Iowa St. L 67-72 34%    
  Feb 15, 2025 79   @ Colorado L 70-73 42%    
  Feb 19, 2025 87   @ Oklahoma St. L 70-72 43%    
  Feb 23, 2025 77   Utah W 75-72 61%    
  Feb 26, 2025 39   Kansas St. L 70-71 50%    
  Mar 01, 2025 53   @ TCU L 72-77 35%    
  Mar 05, 2025 87   Oklahoma St. W 73-69 62%    
  Mar 08, 2025 65   @ West Virginia L 71-75 38%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.1 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 1.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.9 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 2.1 1.6 0.2 0.0 4.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.3 2.4 0.5 0.0 5.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.1 0.9 0.1 6.4 8th
9th 0.1 1.6 3.8 1.6 0.2 7.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.8 2.7 0.4 0.0 8.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.8 3.4 3.4 0.8 0.0 8.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 2.8 4.2 1.5 0.1 9.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 2.4 4.4 2.1 0.3 0.0 9.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.5 2.5 4.1 2.5 0.4 0.0 10.1 14th
15th 0.1 0.7 2.5 3.5 2.2 0.6 0.0 9.6 15th
16th 0.5 1.5 2.7 2.8 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 9.4 16th
Total 0.5 1.6 3.4 5.9 8.0 9.6 11.2 11.3 10.8 10.0 8.2 6.5 5.0 3.4 2.3 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 87.9% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
17-3 68.2% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
16-4 39.6% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 12.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 3.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 100.0% 37.5% 62.5% 1.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.0% 100.0% 29.4% 70.6% 1.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.1% 100.0% 13.1% 86.9% 1.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.3% 100.0% 15.7% 84.3% 2.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.6% 100.0% 9.1% 90.9% 2.6 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 1.4% 100.0% 8.5% 91.5% 3.4 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 2.3% 99.6% 7.0% 92.6% 4.5 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
13-7 3.4% 98.6% 5.1% 93.5% 5.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.5%
12-8 5.0% 95.7% 2.7% 93.1% 6.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 95.6%
11-9 6.5% 85.6% 1.3% 84.2% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.9 85.4%
10-10 8.2% 65.4% 0.7% 64.7% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.1 0.2 0.0 2.8 65.2%
9-11 10.0% 34.1% 0.3% 33.8% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.3 0.4 0.0 6.6 33.9%
8-12 10.8% 11.1% 0.1% 11.0% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 9.6 11.0%
7-13 11.3% 2.3% 0.1% 2.3% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 11.1 2.3%
6-14 11.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 11.4 0.0 0.0 11.2 0.0%
5-15 9.6% 9.6
4-16 8.0% 8.0
3-17 5.9% 5.9
2-18 3.4% 3.4
1-19 1.6% 1.6
0-20 0.5% 0.5
Total 100% 28.7% 0.9% 27.8% 7.5 0.4 0.9 1.5 1.9 2.6 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.3 3.8 1.0 0.0 71.3 28.0%