Central Florida
Big 12
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.0#71
Expected Predictive Rating+18.4#9
Pace70.7#135
Improvement-2.0#347

Offense
Total Offense+3.4#88
First Shot-5.4#317
After Offensive Rebound+8.8#1
Layup/Dunks-3.3#287
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#234
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#282
Freethrows+2.4#68
Improvement+1.1#47

Defense
Total Defense+4.6#57
First Shot+7.0#21
After Offensive Rebounds-2.4#311
Layups/Dunks+3.5#79
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#19
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#175
Freethrows+0.2#171
Improvement-3.1#363
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.6% 1.2% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 3.1% 5.4% 1.7%
Top 6 Seed 9.5% 15.3% 6.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 33.5% 46.0% 26.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 33.2% 45.5% 25.9%
Average Seed 8.1 7.7 8.4
.500 or above 62.1% 77.5% 53.0%
.500 or above in Conference 24.4% 31.3% 20.2%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.8% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 15.1% 10.9% 17.6%
First Four6.3% 7.1% 5.7%
First Round30.1% 42.0% 23.0%
Second Round15.2% 22.3% 11.0%
Sweet Sixteen4.9% 7.8% 3.2%
Elite Eight1.6% 2.7% 1.0%
Final Four0.5% 0.8% 0.3%
Championship Game0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Wisconsin (Neutral) - 37.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 10
Quad 24 - 38 - 13
Quad 34 - 112 - 14
Quad 45 - 017 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 23   Texas A&M W 64-61 40%     1 - 0 +13.7 -0.8 +14.7
  Nov 08, 2024 140   Purdue Fort Wayne W 75-68 82%     2 - 0 +5.5 -1.3 +6.6
  Nov 12, 2024 75   Florida Atlantic W 100-94 63%     3 - 0 +10.6 +14.2 -4.3
  Nov 19, 2024 332   Tennessee Tech W 80-69 97%     4 - 0 -2.4 +3.7 -5.7
  Nov 22, 2024 38   Wisconsin L 72-76 37%    
  Nov 27, 2024 210   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 83-70 89%    
  Dec 01, 2024 181   California Baptist W 76-64 87%    
  Dec 08, 2024 317   Tarleton St. W 81-62 96%    
  Dec 14, 2024 147   Tulsa W 80-73 75%    
  Dec 21, 2024 226   Jacksonville W 75-61 90%    
  Dec 31, 2024 14   @ Texas Tech L 67-77 18%    
  Jan 05, 2025 6   Kansas L 70-78 24%    
  Jan 08, 2025 70   Colorado W 73-70 61%    
  Jan 11, 2025 13   @ Arizona L 73-83 18%    
  Jan 14, 2025 53   @ Arizona St. L 71-75 35%    
  Jan 18, 2025 4   Houston L 62-71 23%    
  Jan 21, 2025 12   @ Iowa St. L 64-75 16%    
  Jan 25, 2025 60   TCU W 75-73 58%    
  Jan 28, 2025 6   @ Kansas L 67-81 11%    
  Feb 01, 2025 34   BYU L 75-76 47%    
  Feb 05, 2025 18   Cincinnati L 71-74 40%    
  Feb 08, 2025 11   @ Baylor L 66-78 16%    
  Feb 11, 2025 12   Iowa St. L 67-72 32%    
  Feb 15, 2025 70   @ Colorado L 70-73 40%    
  Feb 19, 2025 86   @ Oklahoma St. L 74-76 44%    
  Feb 23, 2025 54   Utah W 76-74 56%    
  Feb 26, 2025 66   Kansas St. W 73-70 59%    
  Mar 01, 2025 60   @ TCU L 72-76 37%    
  Mar 05, 2025 86   Oklahoma St. W 77-73 65%    
  Mar 08, 2025 76   @ West Virginia L 72-74 42%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.6 3rd
4th 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.3 0.1 2.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 2.1 1.3 0.2 0.0 4.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.3 2.3 0.4 0.0 5.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.2 0.9 0.1 6.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.7 4.0 1.6 0.2 7.7 9th
10th 0.0 1.1 4.1 2.8 0.4 0.0 8.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 3.7 4.2 0.9 0.0 9.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 2.9 4.6 1.6 0.1 0.0 9.6 12th
13th 0.3 2.2 4.8 2.4 0.3 0.0 10.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.4 2.0 4.3 2.9 0.6 0.0 10.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.8 3.1 0.7 0.0 10.2 15th
16th 0.2 1.1 2.3 3.0 1.8 0.5 0.0 9.0 16th
Total 0.2 1.1 2.7 5.4 8.0 10.6 12.1 12.6 12.3 10.5 8.3 6.4 4.3 2.8 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
17-3 79.5% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
16-4 48.5% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 20.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 3.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 100.0% 20.5% 79.5% 2.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.3% 100.0% 14.9% 85.1% 2.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 0.8% 100.0% 9.0% 91.0% 3.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 1.4% 99.8% 7.2% 92.6% 4.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
13-7 2.8% 99.8% 3.6% 96.2% 5.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
12-8 4.3% 98.8% 1.4% 97.4% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.8%
11-9 6.4% 95.4% 1.0% 94.4% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.3 95.3%
10-10 8.3% 85.6% 0.5% 85.1% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.6 1.7 1.4 0.8 0.0 1.2 85.5%
9-11 10.5% 59.4% 0.4% 59.1% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.6 2.3 0.3 4.3 59.3%
8-12 12.3% 28.4% 0.1% 28.2% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 2.0 0.5 0.0 8.8 28.3%
7-13 12.6% 7.2% 0.0% 7.2% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 11.7 7.2%
6-14 12.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.6% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 12.0 0.6%
5-15 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 10.6 0.0%
4-16 8.0% 8.0
3-17 5.4% 5.4
2-18 2.7% 2.7
1-19 1.1% 1.1
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 33.5% 0.6% 33.0% 8.1 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.6 3.7 3.7 4.3 4.8 4.4 5.9 1.0 0.0 66.5 33.2%