Central Florida
Big 12
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.0#81
Expected Predictive Rating+8.6#70
Pace77.2#16
Improvement-2.9#305

Offense
Total Offense+5.3#59
First Shot+0.8#143
After Offensive Rebound+4.5#9
Layup/Dunks-1.2#224
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#240
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#195
Freethrows+3.4#27
Improvement+1.1#126

Defense
Total Defense+1.7#124
First Shot+0.6#159
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#84
Layups/Dunks-1.2#223
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#161
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#175
Freethrows+0.9#116
Improvement-4.0#342
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 1.0% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.6% 0.9% 0.1%
Average Seed 10.9 10.9 11.5
.500 or above 44.2% 61.7% 21.1%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.1% 1.0%
First Four0.5% 0.8% 0.1%
First Round0.3% 0.5% 0.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah (Home) - 56.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 11
Quad 22 - 56 - 16
Quad 36 - 111 - 17
Quad 45 - 016 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 20   Texas A&M W 64-61 27%     1 - 0 +16.5 +3.2 +13.4
  Nov 08, 2024 153   Purdue Fort Wayne W 75-68 80%     2 - 0 +5.1 -2.7 +7.6
  Nov 12, 2024 105   Florida Atlantic W 100-94 70%     3 - 0 +7.5 +13.1 -6.3
  Nov 19, 2024 308   Tennessee Tech W 80-69 94%     4 - 0 +0.0 +4.4 -4.0
  Nov 22, 2024 7   Wisconsin L 70-86 14%     4 - 1 +2.7 -3.4 +7.7
  Nov 24, 2024 72   LSU L 102-109 3OT 47%     4 - 2 +0.9 +5.4 -2.6
  Nov 27, 2024 130   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 84-76 77%     5 - 2 +7.2 +7.5 -0.6
  Dec 01, 2024 158   California Baptist W 74-59 81%     6 - 2 +12.7 +0.3 +12.4
  Dec 08, 2024 273   Tarleton St. W 66-51 92%     7 - 2 +6.1 -2.0 +9.2
  Dec 14, 2024 246   Tulsa W 88-75 86%     8 - 2 +8.2 +16.2 -7.6
  Dec 21, 2024 193   Jacksonville W 86-66 86%     9 - 2 +15.6 +10.9 +4.1
  Dec 31, 2024 10   @ Texas Tech W 87-83 10%     10 - 2 1 - 0 +25.0 +19.7 +5.2
  Jan 05, 2025 19   Kansas L 48-99 26%     10 - 3 1 - 1 -37.4 -20.2 -12.4
  Jan 08, 2025 91   Colorado W 75-74 65%     11 - 3 2 - 1 +4.0 +2.5 +1.5
  Jan 11, 2025 8   @ Arizona L 80-88 10%     11 - 4 2 - 2 +13.3 +12.4 +1.5
  Jan 14, 2025 65   @ Arizona St. W 95-89 35%     12 - 4 3 - 2 +16.9 +23.3 -6.7
  Jan 18, 2025 3   Houston L 68-69 12%     12 - 5 3 - 3 +18.9 +9.4 +9.5
  Jan 21, 2025 9   @ Iowa St. L 83-108 10%     12 - 6 3 - 4 -3.8 +11.3 -12.0
  Jan 25, 2025 64   TCU W 85-58 55%     13 - 6 4 - 4 +32.8 +20.5 +13.1
  Jan 28, 2025 19   @ Kansas L 87-91 14%     13 - 7 4 - 5 +14.7 +19.0 -4.0
  Feb 01, 2025 26   BYU L 75-81 30%     13 - 8 4 - 6 +6.3 -1.0 +7.8
  Feb 05, 2025 46   Cincinnati L 83-93 43%     13 - 9 4 - 7 -1.3 +10.3 -10.8
  Feb 08, 2025 24   @ Baylor L 76-91 15%     13 - 10 4 - 8 +2.9 +11.9 -9.4
  Feb 11, 2025 9   Iowa St. L 65-77 19%     13 - 11 4 - 9 +4.1 +2.1 +1.8
  Feb 15, 2025 91   @ Colorado L 63-76 46%     13 - 12 4 - 10 -4.9 -5.6 +1.0
  Feb 19, 2025 92   @ Oklahoma St. L 95-104 46%     13 - 13 4 - 11 -0.9 +9.6 -8.8
  Feb 23, 2025 68   Utah W 81-80 57%    
  Feb 26, 2025 56   Kansas St. L 78-79 48%    
  Mar 01, 2025 64   @ TCU L 72-76 34%    
  Mar 05, 2025 92   Oklahoma St. W 84-80 65%    
  Mar 08, 2025 41   @ West Virginia L 68-76 22%    
Projected Record 15 - 16 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 7th
8th 0.5 0.5 8th
9th 0.4 0.8 1.2 9th
10th 0.0 2.7 0.5 3.2 10th
11th 2.1 5.5 0.0 7.6 11th
12th 2.7 12.7 2.7 18.1 12th
13th 3.3 22.0 12.3 0.4 38.0 13th
14th 2.7 14.7 8.5 0.4 26.3 14th
15th 2.1 2.6 0.3 5.0 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.1 16th
Total 4.9 20.7 33.5 27.5 11.6 1.8 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11 1.8% 12.6% 12.6% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.6 12.6%
8-12 11.6% 2.6% 0.1% 2.5% 11.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 11.3 2.5%
7-13 27.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 27.5 0.2%
6-14 33.5% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 33.4
5-15 20.7% 20.7
4-16 4.9% 4.9
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.6% 0.0% 0.6% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 99.4 0.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 4.0%