Preseason Rankings
BYU
Big 12
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.7#32
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.4#91
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.3#21
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.3#54
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
#1 Seed 2.7% 2.7% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 6.4% 6.5% 0.4%
Top 4 Seed 16.5% 16.6% 2.5%
Top 6 Seed 27.7% 27.8% 6.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 55.5% 55.8% 20.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 53.8% 54.0% 19.8%
Average Seed 6.4 6.4 8.2
.500 or above 79.3% 79.5% 41.9%
.500 or above in Conference 57.4% 57.6% 26.9%
Conference Champion 4.5% 4.5% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 4.6% 4.5% 10.5%
First Four4.7% 4.8% 3.9%
First Round53.2% 53.4% 19.7%
Second Round35.5% 35.6% 10.8%
Sweet Sixteen17.1% 17.2% 2.8%
Elite Eight8.2% 8.2% 1.4%
Final Four3.8% 3.8% 0.4%
Championship Game1.7% 1.7% 0.4%
National Champion0.8% 0.8% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Arkansas (Home) - 99.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 9
Quad 25 - 39 - 11
Quad 33 - 113 - 12
Quad 46 - 019 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 341   Central Arkansas W 89-63 99%    
  Nov 08, 2024 183   UC Riverside W 81-66 92%    
  Nov 13, 2024 289   Queens W 92-71 97%    
  Nov 16, 2024 279   Idaho W 81-61 97%    
  Nov 28, 2024 40   Mississippi W 76-75 53%    
  Dec 03, 2024 48   @ Providence L 73-74 46%    
  Dec 11, 2024 250   Fresno St. W 80-61 95%    
  Dec 14, 2024 177   Wyoming W 80-68 86%    
  Dec 20, 2024 353   Florida A&M W 87-59 99%    
  Dec 31, 2024 73   Arizona St. W 79-72 73%    
  Jan 04, 2025 3   @ Houston L 63-73 19%    
  Jan 07, 2025 21   Texas Tech W 75-73 56%    
  Jan 11, 2025 53   @ TCU L 77-78 47%    
  Jan 14, 2025 87   Oklahoma St. W 77-69 74%    
  Jan 18, 2025 77   @ Utah W 77-76 54%    
  Jan 21, 2025 79   @ Colorado W 75-74 54%    
  Jan 25, 2025 27   Cincinnati W 75-72 59%    
  Jan 28, 2025 9   Baylor L 74-75 45%    
  Feb 01, 2025 71   @ Central Florida W 75-74 53%    
  Feb 04, 2025 11   Arizona L 80-81 46%    
  Feb 08, 2025 27   @ Cincinnati L 72-75 40%    
  Feb 11, 2025 65   @ West Virginia W 76-75 50%    
  Feb 15, 2025 39   Kansas St. W 75-71 62%    
  Feb 18, 2025 2   Kansas L 75-79 37%    
  Feb 22, 2025 11   @ Arizona L 77-84 27%    
  Feb 26, 2025 73   @ Arizona St. W 76-75 53%    
  Mar 01, 2025 65   West Virginia W 79-73 69%    
  Mar 04, 2025 8   @ Iowa St. L 68-76 27%    
  Mar 08, 2025 77   Utah W 80-73 72%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.1 4.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.1 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 6.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.8 1.9 0.5 0.1 7.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.2 2.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 7.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.5 2.5 0.5 0.0 8.0 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 3.4 3.0 0.7 0.0 8.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.0 3.6 1.1 0.1 8.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.2 3.9 1.4 0.1 0.0 7.8 8th
9th 0.1 1.4 3.6 2.2 0.2 0.0 7.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 3.2 2.5 0.4 0.0 6.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 2.4 3.0 0.8 0.0 6.7 11th
12th 0.2 1.6 2.7 1.1 0.1 5.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.3 1.4 0.2 0.0 5.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.8 1.3 0.2 0.0 4.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.4 15th
16th 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.5 16th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 2.8 4.3 6.0 7.6 9.2 9.9 10.6 10.1 9.6 8.2 6.9 5.1 3.4 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.1 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 97.6% 0.4    0.3 0.0
18-2 87.0% 0.9    0.7 0.2 0.0
17-3 64.9% 1.3    0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
16-4 33.1% 1.1    0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
15-5 10.8% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 2.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.5% 4.5 2.4 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 31.9% 68.1% 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.4% 100.0% 35.2% 64.8% 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.0% 100.0% 28.9% 71.1% 1.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.1% 100.0% 24.7% 75.3% 1.9 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 3.4% 100.0% 16.7% 83.3% 2.6 0.6 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 5.1% 100.0% 11.8% 88.1% 3.7 0.3 0.8 1.4 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-6 6.9% 99.5% 9.0% 90.5% 4.7 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.8 1.5 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
13-7 8.2% 98.5% 5.9% 92.6% 6.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.6 1.7 1.4 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.4%
12-8 9.6% 93.8% 2.9% 90.9% 7.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.5 1.9 1.7 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.6 93.6%
11-9 10.1% 84.1% 1.7% 82.4% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.8 1.9 1.4 0.8 0.1 1.6 83.8%
10-10 10.6% 63.7% 0.9% 62.8% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.6 0.2 0.0 3.8 63.3%
9-11 9.9% 32.8% 0.4% 32.4% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 6.6 32.5%
8-12 9.2% 10.4% 0.2% 10.2% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 8.3 10.2%
7-13 7.6% 1.7% 0.1% 1.6% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.5 1.6%
6-14 6.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 11.1 0.0 0.0 5.9 0.1%
5-15 4.3% 4.3
4-16 2.8% 2.8
3-17 1.7% 1.7
2-18 0.7% 0.7
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 55.5% 3.8% 51.7% 6.4 2.7 3.7 4.6 5.5 5.5 5.6 6.0 5.9 5.5 4.9 4.7 0.9 0.0 0.0 44.5 53.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.1 85.7 14.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0