BYU
Big 12
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.9#34
Expected Predictive Rating+4.7#112
Pace71.4#111
Improvement+0.9#85

Offense
Total Offense+7.9#20
First Shot+2.0#116
After Offensive Rebound+5.9#7
Layup/Dunks-2.1#258
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#54
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.2#41
Freethrows-3.8#329
Improvement+0.6#99

Defense
Total Defense+4.1#69
First Shot-0.6#196
After Offensive Rebounds+4.7#13
Layups/Dunks+8.5#8
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#318
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.5#352
Freethrows+1.0#129
Improvement+0.3#140
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.2% 1.7% 0.4%
Top 2 Seed 3.3% 4.7% 1.4%
Top 4 Seed 11.7% 15.7% 6.2%
Top 6 Seed 24.1% 30.8% 15.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 57.9% 66.7% 45.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 56.6% 65.4% 44.8%
Average Seed 6.9 6.7 7.5
.500 or above 84.3% 90.9% 75.2%
.500 or above in Conference 56.7% 62.8% 48.5%
Conference Champion 3.3% 4.1% 2.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.7% 2.6% 5.1%
First Four4.7% 4.5% 5.0%
First Round55.6% 64.5% 43.4%
Second Round35.3% 42.2% 25.9%
Sweet Sixteen15.0% 18.8% 9.9%
Elite Eight6.6% 8.4% 4.1%
Final Four2.7% 3.5% 1.5%
Championship Game1.0% 1.4% 0.6%
National Champion0.4% 0.5% 0.2%

Next Game: Mississippi (Neutral) - 57.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 9
Quad 25 - 210 - 11
Quad 33 - 013 - 12
Quad 46 - 019 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 340   Central Arkansas W 88-50 98%     1 - 0 +23.3 +9.9 +14.1
  Nov 08, 2024 198   UC Riverside W 86-80 93%     2 - 0 +1.2 +5.1 -4.3
  Nov 13, 2024 299   Queens W 99-55 97%     3 - 0 +33.7 +17.3 +14.1
  Nov 16, 2024 287   Idaho W 95-71 97%     4 - 0 +14.5 +14.4 -0.4
  Nov 28, 2024 47   Mississippi W 76-74 58%    
  Dec 03, 2024 77   @ Providence W 71-69 56%    
  Dec 11, 2024 253   Fresno St. W 88-68 96%    
  Dec 14, 2024 185   Wyoming W 81-68 88%    
  Dec 20, 2024 356   Florida A&M W 88-59 99.6%   
  Dec 31, 2024 53   Arizona St. W 79-73 69%    
  Jan 04, 2025 4   @ Houston L 64-75 17%    
  Jan 07, 2025 14   Texas Tech L 74-75 49%    
  Jan 11, 2025 60   @ TCU W 77-76 51%    
  Jan 14, 2025 86   Oklahoma St. W 82-74 77%    
  Jan 18, 2025 54   @ Utah L 77-78 49%    
  Jan 21, 2025 70   @ Colorado W 75-74 53%    
  Jan 25, 2025 18   Cincinnati W 76-75 53%    
  Jan 28, 2025 11   Baylor L 74-76 45%    
  Feb 01, 2025 71   @ Central Florida W 76-75 53%    
  Feb 04, 2025 13   Arizona L 81-82 48%    
  Feb 08, 2025 18   @ Cincinnati L 73-78 33%    
  Feb 11, 2025 76   @ West Virginia W 76-75 55%    
  Feb 15, 2025 66   Kansas St. W 77-70 72%    
  Feb 18, 2025 6   Kansas L 75-79 37%    
  Feb 22, 2025 13   @ Arizona L 78-85 29%    
  Feb 26, 2025 53   @ Arizona St. L 75-76 49%    
  Mar 01, 2025 76   West Virginia W 79-72 74%    
  Mar 04, 2025 12   @ Iowa St. L 69-76 26%    
  Mar 08, 2025 54   Utah W 81-75 68%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 3.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.0 1.2 0.3 0.0 5.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.7 1.4 0.3 0.0 6.5 3rd
4th 0.2 1.9 3.1 1.9 0.3 0.0 7.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 3.8 2.4 0.4 0.0 8.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 3.7 3.1 0.7 0.0 8.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.5 4.0 1.1 0.1 9.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.5 4.3 1.5 0.1 0.0 8.7 8th
9th 0.1 1.5 4.3 2.2 0.2 0.0 8.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 3.5 3.0 0.5 0.0 7.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 2.3 3.1 0.8 0.0 6.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.0 1.3 0.1 6.0 12th
13th 0.1 0.8 2.4 1.6 0.2 0.0 5.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 1.5 0.3 0.0 4.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.1 0.3 0.0 3.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.9 16th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.3 4.0 6.0 8.1 9.9 11.3 11.6 11.3 10.4 8.3 6.4 4.4 2.6 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
18-2 90.9% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
17-3 70.2% 0.8    0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
16-4 38.3% 1.0    0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0
15-5 14.3% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 2.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.3% 3.3 1.6 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.2% 100.0% 27.5% 72.5% 1.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.5% 100.0% 21.3% 78.7% 1.7 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.2% 100.0% 17.0% 83.0% 2.2 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 2.6% 100.0% 16.1% 83.9% 2.9 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 4.4% 100.0% 11.7% 88.3% 3.8 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 6.4% 99.8% 8.3% 91.5% 4.9 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.5 1.7 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
13-7 8.3% 98.8% 5.2% 93.5% 6.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.8 2.0 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.7%
12-8 10.4% 96.8% 3.0% 93.8% 7.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.8 2.6 2.4 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.3 96.7%
11-9 11.3% 86.8% 1.7% 85.1% 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.8 2.5 2.1 1.5 0.6 0.0 1.5 86.6%
10-10 11.6% 72.3% 0.8% 71.5% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.1 2.1 1.4 0.1 3.2 72.1%
9-11 11.3% 41.3% 0.6% 40.7% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.3 1.8 0.2 6.6 40.9%
8-12 9.9% 14.7% 0.4% 14.3% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.2 8.4 14.4%
7-13 8.1% 2.6% 0.2% 2.4% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 7.9 2.4%
6-14 6.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 11.4 0.0 0.0 6.0 0.1%
5-15 4.0% 4.0
4-16 2.3% 2.3
3-17 1.2% 1.2
2-18 0.5% 0.5
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 57.9% 3.0% 54.9% 6.9 1.2 2.1 3.7 4.6 5.9 6.6 7.7 8.0 6.7 5.8 4.9 0.6 42.1 56.6%