BYU
Big 12
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.9#26
Expected Predictive Rating+12.9#41
Pace67.9#190
Improvement+4.4#30

Offense
Total Offense+10.0#13
First Shot+6.5#37
After Offensive Rebound+3.5#18
Layup/Dunks-0.6#209
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#141
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.4#12
Freethrows-0.8#237
Improvement+2.5#64

Defense
Total Defense+4.9#60
First Shot-0.9#205
After Offensive Rebounds+5.7#1
Layups/Dunks+9.9#6
2 Pt Jumpshots-6.1#361
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.8#348
Freethrows+1.2#102
Improvement+1.9#84
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 2.3% 5.9% 1.0%
Top 6 Seed 14.2% 30.0% 8.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 88.7% 96.8% 85.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 88.3% 96.6% 85.5%
Average Seed 8.2 7.3 8.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 98.5% 100.0% 97.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four4.4% 0.8% 5.6%
First Round86.9% 96.5% 83.5%
Second Round50.1% 61.0% 46.2%
Sweet Sixteen15.7% 20.8% 13.9%
Elite Eight6.2% 7.9% 5.6%
Final Four2.3% 3.1% 2.0%
Championship Game0.7% 0.8% 0.7%
National Champion0.2% 0.3% 0.2%

Next Game: Arizona (Away) - 26.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 44 - 10
Quad 27 - 211 - 11
Quad 35 - 015 - 11
Quad 46 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 344   Central Arkansas W 88-50 99%     1 - 0 +23.2 +9.8 +14.1
  Nov 08, 2024 149   UC Riverside W 86-80 93%     2 - 0 +4.1 +6.4 -2.6
  Nov 13, 2024 231   Queens W 99-55 96%     3 - 0 +37.6 +16.3 +19.0
  Nov 16, 2024 253   Idaho W 95-71 97%     4 - 0 +16.3 +12.2 +3.5
  Nov 23, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 87-43 99.9%    5 - 0 +13.1 +10.8 +7.7
  Nov 28, 2024 25   Mississippi L 85-96 OT 50%     5 - 1 +3.9 +8.4 -3.0
  Nov 29, 2024 103   North Carolina St. W 72-61 84%     6 - 1 +15.3 +7.9 +8.2
  Dec 03, 2024 79   @ Providence L 64-83 69%     6 - 2 -9.2 +3.1 -14.9
  Dec 11, 2024 254   Fresno St. W 95-67 97%     7 - 2 +20.2 +12.0 +5.9
  Dec 14, 2024 166   Wyoming W 68-49 91%     8 - 2 +18.7 +7.9 +13.9
  Dec 20, 2024 321   Florida A&M W 103-57 99%     9 - 2 +34.0 +15.8 +14.6
  Dec 31, 2024 65   Arizona St. W 76-56 80%     10 - 2 1 - 0 +25.8 +13.3 +14.1
  Jan 04, 2025 3   @ Houston L 55-86 17%     10 - 3 1 - 1 -6.0 +0.6 -10.2
  Jan 07, 2025 10   Texas Tech L 67-72 46%     10 - 4 1 - 2 +10.9 +9.6 +0.5
  Jan 11, 2025 64   @ TCU L 67-71 65%     10 - 5 1 - 3 +6.9 +6.9 -0.2
  Jan 14, 2025 92   Oklahoma St. W 85-69 86%     11 - 5 2 - 3 +19.0 +15.3 +3.9
  Jan 18, 2025 68   @ Utah L 72-73 OT 65%     11 - 6 2 - 4 +9.8 +0.5 +9.4
  Jan 21, 2025 91   @ Colorado W 83-67 74%     12 - 6 3 - 4 +24.1 +21.0 +4.1
  Jan 25, 2025 46   Cincinnati W 80-52 72%     13 - 6 4 - 4 +36.7 +26.9 +14.5
  Jan 28, 2025 24   Baylor W 93-89 OT 58%     14 - 6 5 - 4 +16.8 +24.3 -7.5
  Feb 01, 2025 81   @ Central Florida W 81-75 70%     15 - 6 6 - 4 +15.6 +3.9 +11.1
  Feb 04, 2025 8   Arizona L 74-85 45%     15 - 7 6 - 5 +5.2 +7.7 -2.2
  Feb 08, 2025 46   @ Cincinnati L 66-84 54%     15 - 8 6 - 6 -4.2 +8.7 -14.6
  Feb 11, 2025 41   @ West Virginia W 73-69 51%     16 - 8 7 - 6 +18.6 +17.2 +1.8
  Feb 15, 2025 56   Kansas St. W 80-65 74%     17 - 8 8 - 6 +23.0 +16.3 +7.6
  Feb 18, 2025 19   Kansas W 91-57 55%     18 - 8 9 - 6 +47.6 +25.3 +21.6
  Feb 22, 2025 8   @ Arizona L 74-80 26%    
  Feb 26, 2025 65   @ Arizona St. W 77-73 63%    
  Mar 01, 2025 41   West Virginia W 71-66 71%    
  Mar 04, 2025 9   @ Iowa St. L 72-78 26%    
  Mar 08, 2025 68   Utah W 81-72 82%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.6 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.4 1.4 2.8 3rd
4th 0.1 2.8 7.9 1.0 11.7 4th
5th 0.2 10.6 29.5 7.9 0.0 48.3 5th
6th 1.4 14.4 4.5 20.3 6th
7th 0.0 4.0 5.1 0.2 9.3 7th
8th 0.2 3.6 0.5 4.4 8th
9th 0.5 1.2 1.7 9th
10th 0.6 0.2 0.8 10th
11th 0.2 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 1.5 10.7 30.6 37.0 17.2 3.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 3.0% 100.0% 9.0% 91.0% 5.3 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-7 17.2% 98.9% 5.5% 93.4% 6.8 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.8 4.7 3.8 1.7 0.2 0.2 98.8%
12-8 37.0% 94.3% 3.5% 90.8% 8.2 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.8 5.7 9.9 10.1 4.4 0.7 0.0 2.1 94.1%
11-9 30.6% 84.5% 2.0% 82.5% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.6 5.1 8.1 7.6 2.6 0.0 4.7 84.2%
10-10 10.7% 68.9% 1.4% 67.5% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.7 2.9 1.9 0.0 3.3 68.4%
9-11 1.5% 40.5% 1.3% 39.2% 10.7 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.9 39.7%
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 88.7% 3.3% 85.4% 8.2 0.1 0.6 1.5 3.4 8.5 12.6 19.6 21.6 15.2 5.5 0.1 11.3 88.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 2.7 40.7 48.1 7.4 3.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4% 100.0% 4.3 2.6 23.7 31.6 28.9 10.5 2.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.0% 100.0% 5.4 2.9 17.6 25.5 44.1 7.8 2.0
Lose Out 0.6% 7.1% 11.5 3.6 3.6