TCU
Big 12
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.8#60
Expected Predictive Rating+8.4#66
Pace73.6#73
Improvement-2.1#349

Offense
Total Offense+3.4#89
First Shot+2.3#101
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#117
Layup/Dunks+6.7#21
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#264
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#190
Freethrows-2.7#305
Improvement-2.1#356

Defense
Total Defense+5.4#43
First Shot+4.0#68
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#99
Layups/Dunks+4.0#64
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#193
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#185
Freethrows+0.0#184
Improvement+0.1#181
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.4% 0.6% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 2.5% 3.4% 1.0%
Top 6 Seed 7.6% 10.0% 3.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 29.6% 35.8% 19.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 29.1% 35.2% 18.8%
Average Seed 8.1 8.0 8.5
.500 or above 54.7% 64.4% 38.4%
.500 or above in Conference 30.8% 35.1% 23.5%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.7% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 10.3% 8.2% 13.8%
First Four5.4% 6.1% 4.2%
First Round26.8% 32.7% 16.9%
Second Round14.3% 17.8% 8.5%
Sweet Sixteen4.6% 5.9% 2.5%
Elite Eight1.7% 2.3% 0.8%
Final Four0.5% 0.7% 0.3%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Santa Clara (Neutral) - 62.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 81 - 8
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 11
Quad 24 - 37 - 14
Quad 34 - 111 - 15
Quad 45 - 016 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 356   Florida A&M W 105-59 98%     1 - 0 +29.0 +26.3 +3.2
  Nov 08, 2024 216   Florida Gulf Coast W 67-51 91%     2 - 0 +10.3 -1.4 +13.2
  Nov 12, 2024 166   Texas St. W 76-71 87%     3 - 0 +1.6 +0.7 +0.7
  Nov 15, 2024 24   @ Michigan L 64-76 23%     3 - 1 +4.6 -3.4 +8.5
  Nov 19, 2024 350   Alcorn St. W 71-48 98%     4 - 1 +7.1 -5.6 +14.3
  Nov 28, 2024 99   Santa Clara W 79-75 63%    
  Dec 05, 2024 36   Xavier W 77-76 51%    
  Dec 08, 2024 82   Vanderbilt W 78-76 57%    
  Dec 16, 2024 196   South Alabama W 79-65 89%    
  Dec 22, 2024 155   Montana St. W 81-69 85%    
  Dec 30, 2024 13   @ Arizona L 74-84 19%    
  Jan 04, 2025 66   Kansas St. W 74-71 62%    
  Jan 06, 2025 4   @ Houston L 61-75 11%    
  Jan 11, 2025 34   BYU L 76-77 49%    
  Jan 15, 2025 54   Utah W 77-75 59%    
  Jan 19, 2025 11   @ Baylor L 68-79 17%    
  Jan 22, 2025 6   Kansas L 72-79 26%    
  Jan 25, 2025 71   @ Central Florida L 73-75 42%    
  Jan 29, 2025 14   @ Texas Tech L 68-77 21%    
  Feb 02, 2025 70   Colorado W 75-71 63%    
  Feb 05, 2025 76   West Virginia W 76-72 64%    
  Feb 08, 2025 12   @ Iowa St. L 65-76 18%    
  Feb 12, 2025 86   Oklahoma St. W 79-74 68%    
  Feb 15, 2025 53   @ Arizona St. L 72-76 38%    
  Feb 18, 2025 14   Texas Tech L 71-74 39%    
  Feb 22, 2025 18   @ Cincinnati L 69-77 24%    
  Feb 25, 2025 76   @ West Virginia L 73-75 44%    
  Mar 01, 2025 71   Central Florida W 76-72 63%    
  Mar 04, 2025 11   Baylor L 71-76 34%    
  Mar 08, 2025 70   @ Colorado L 72-74 42%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 2.1 1.0 0.1 0.0 4.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 2.7 1.7 0.3 0.0 5.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.7 2.7 0.5 0.0 6.5 7th
8th 0.3 2.4 3.8 1.2 0.1 7.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.9 4.6 2.0 0.2 8.8 9th
10th 0.0 1.2 4.5 3.3 0.4 0.0 9.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 3.6 4.4 0.9 0.0 9.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 2.6 4.7 1.8 0.1 0.0 9.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.5 2.5 0.3 0.0 9.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.6 2.7 0.6 0.0 8.6 14th
15th 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.9 2.1 0.6 0.0 7.3 15th
16th 0.1 0.6 1.3 2.0 1.4 0.4 0.0 5.9 16th
Total 0.1 0.6 1.6 3.6 6.1 8.4 11.1 12.7 13.2 11.9 9.9 8.0 5.6 3.6 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0
17-3 73.2% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 39.1% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 15.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 2.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.1% 100.0% 23.8% 76.2% 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.1% 100.0% 10.7% 89.3% 2.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.4% 100.0% 14.3% 85.7% 3.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 1.0% 100.0% 6.9% 93.1% 4.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 2.1% 99.6% 5.9% 93.8% 5.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.6%
13-7 3.6% 98.1% 3.9% 94.2% 6.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.0%
12-8 5.6% 94.4% 2.0% 92.4% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.3 94.3%
11-9 8.0% 81.9% 1.2% 80.8% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.5 1.3 0.8 0.0 1.5 81.7%
10-10 9.9% 60.6% 0.7% 59.9% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.3 1.4 1.8 0.2 0.0 3.9 60.3%
9-11 11.9% 28.0% 0.2% 27.8% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.7 0.3 8.6 27.9%
8-12 13.2% 8.2% 0.2% 8.0% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 12.1 8.0%
7-13 12.7% 1.1% 0.1% 1.0% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 12.6 1.0%
6-14 11.1% 11.1
5-15 8.4% 8.4
4-16 6.1% 6.1
3-17 3.6% 3.6
2-18 1.6% 1.6
1-19 0.6% 0.6
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 29.6% 0.8% 28.9% 8.1 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.2 2.9 3.6 4.1 4.2 4.1 5.2 0.8 0.0 70.4 29.1%