TCU
Big 12
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.4#88
Expected Predictive Rating+4.6#106
Pace70.6#134
Improvement-1.8#294

Offense
Total Offense-0.1#177
First Shot-1.8#227
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#93
Layup/Dunks+4.7#38
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#199
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#317
Freethrows-1.4#260
Improvement-2.1#325

Defense
Total Defense+6.5#29
First Shot+5.7#31
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#112
Layups/Dunks+2.3#90
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#165
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#88
Freethrows+0.8#138
Improvement+0.3#160
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.1% 7.1% 2.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 6.0% 7.0% 2.2%
Average Seed 9.5 9.4 9.6
.500 or above 22.9% 26.6% 9.1%
.500 or above in Conference 13.9% 15.2% 8.6%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 20.7% 19.1% 26.8%
First Four1.9% 2.2% 0.8%
First Round5.0% 5.9% 1.7%
Second Round2.3% 2.7% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.7% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Montana St. (Home) - 78.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 81 - 8
Quad 1b1 - 42 - 12
Quad 24 - 56 - 16
Quad 33 - 29 - 18
Quad 45 - 014 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 357   Florida A&M W 105-59 97%     1 - 0 +29.3 +27.5 +2.3
  Nov 08, 2024 192   Florida Gulf Coast W 67-51 84%     2 - 0 +11.7 -2.0 +15.1
  Nov 12, 2024 139   Texas St. W 76-71 79%     3 - 0 +3.1 -1.6 +4.5
  Nov 15, 2024 21   @ Michigan L 64-76 16%     3 - 1 +5.2 -3.1 +8.7
  Nov 19, 2024 342   Alcorn St. W 71-48 96%     4 - 1 +8.6 -4.0 +14.3
  Nov 28, 2024 72   Santa Clara L 52-69 46%     4 - 2 -9.4 -17.1 +7.4
  Nov 29, 2024 104   Colorado St. L 72-76 OT 58%     4 - 3 +0.4 -6.0 +6.9
  Dec 05, 2024 47   Xavier W 76-72 46%     5 - 3 +11.5 +10.0 +1.7
  Dec 08, 2024 50   Vanderbilt L 74-83 35%     5 - 4 +1.3 +0.5 +1.3
  Dec 16, 2024 202   South Alabama W 58-49 85%     6 - 4 +4.2 -7.7 +13.3
  Dec 22, 2024 141   Montana St. W 75-66 79%    
  Dec 30, 2024 17   @ Arizona L 68-80 14%    
  Jan 04, 2025 68   Kansas St. W 70-69 54%    
  Jan 06, 2025 6   @ Houston L 56-72 8%    
  Jan 11, 2025 40   BYU L 72-74 43%    
  Jan 15, 2025 66   Utah W 73-72 53%    
  Jan 19, 2025 12   @ Baylor L 65-78 12%    
  Jan 22, 2025 10   Kansas L 67-75 24%    
  Jan 25, 2025 84   @ Central Florida L 68-71 38%    
  Jan 29, 2025 24   @ Texas Tech L 65-75 17%    
  Feb 02, 2025 75   Colorado W 70-68 57%    
  Feb 05, 2025 39   West Virginia L 67-69 42%    
  Feb 08, 2025 5   @ Iowa St. L 65-81 7%    
  Feb 12, 2025 97   Oklahoma St. W 75-71 64%    
  Feb 15, 2025 62   @ Arizona St. L 68-74 31%    
  Feb 18, 2025 24   Texas Tech L 68-72 34%    
  Feb 22, 2025 26   @ Cincinnati L 62-72 18%    
  Feb 25, 2025 39   @ West Virginia L 64-72 23%    
  Mar 01, 2025 84   Central Florida W 71-68 59%    
  Mar 04, 2025 12   Baylor L 68-75 27%    
  Mar 08, 2025 75   @ Colorado L 67-71 36%    
Projected Record 13 - 18 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.9 4th
5th 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.7 1.3 0.2 0.0 3.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.0 2.3 0.5 0.0 5.2 8th
9th 0.1 1.6 3.6 1.3 0.1 6.7 9th
10th 0.0 1.2 4.0 2.5 0.3 0.0 8.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 3.8 4.1 0.8 0.0 9.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 3.1 5.3 1.7 0.1 10.6 12th
13th 0.2 2.4 5.6 3.3 0.3 0.0 11.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.6 4.1 0.7 0.0 12.7 14th
15th 0.0 0.5 2.3 5.1 4.1 1.1 0.0 13.1 15th
16th 0.3 1.2 3.0 4.1 3.1 1.0 0.1 12.7 16th
Total 0.3 1.3 3.5 6.5 10.5 13.5 14.7 14.4 12.1 9.5 6.2 3.9 2.1 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 75.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 62.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 20.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 3.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.1% 100.0% 100.0% 5.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 0.2% 100.0% 7.8% 92.2% 6.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 0.4% 96.4% 4.6% 91.8% 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 96.2%
13-7 0.9% 86.2% 2.6% 83.6% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 85.8%
12-8 2.1% 71.2% 1.0% 70.3% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.6 70.9%
11-9 3.9% 42.6% 0.4% 42.2% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.0 2.3 42.3%
10-10 6.2% 19.0% 0.2% 18.8% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.1 5.1 18.9%
9-11 9.5% 3.0% 0.3% 2.7% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 9.2 2.7%
8-12 12.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 11.2 0.0 0.0 12.0 0.2%
7-13 14.4% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.4
6-14 14.7% 14.7
5-15 13.5% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 13.5
4-16 10.5% 10.5
3-17 6.5% 6.5
2-18 3.5% 3.5
1-19 1.3% 1.3
0-20 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 6.1% 0.2% 6.0% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 93.9 6.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%