TCU
Big 12
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.4#64
Expected Predictive Rating+11.4#52
Pace66.5#223
Improvement+0.4#172

Offense
Total Offense+1.0#147
First Shot-0.7#199
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#86
Layup/Dunks+2.8#84
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#211
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#250
Freethrows-0.6#220
Improvement+1.0#129

Defense
Total Defense+7.4#27
First Shot+6.5#27
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#110
Layups/Dunks+2.4#87
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#246
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#46
Freethrows+1.2#100
Improvement-0.7#225
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.5% 41.0% 15.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 22.4% 40.9% 15.1%
Average Seed 10.3 10.1 10.6
.500 or above 93.9% 100.0% 91.5%
.500 or above in Conference 68.5% 91.2% 59.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four11.4% 16.7% 9.3%
First Round15.5% 30.9% 9.3%
Second Round4.2% 8.8% 2.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 1.6% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cincinnati (Away) - 28.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 44 - 10
Quad 24 - 58 - 14
Quad 35 - 013 - 15
Quad 44 - 018 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 321   Florida A&M W 105-59 96%     1 - 0 +34.0 +27.0 +7.5
  Nov 08, 2024 180   Florida Gulf Coast W 67-51 87%     2 - 0 +12.4 -2.8 +16.7
  Nov 12, 2024 202   Texas St. W 76-71 89%     3 - 0 +0.2 -4.4 +4.4
  Nov 15, 2024 22   @ Michigan L 64-76 18%     3 - 1 +6.2 -2.4 +9.1
  Nov 19, 2024 307   Alcorn St. W 71-48 95%     4 - 1 +12.0 -1.2 +14.9
  Nov 28, 2024 60   Santa Clara L 52-69 45%     4 - 2 -7.3 -16.1 +8.6
  Nov 29, 2024 67   Colorado St. L 72-76 OT 50%     4 - 3 +4.3 -6.4 +11.2
  Dec 05, 2024 42   Xavier W 76-72 46%     5 - 3 +13.4 +11.7 +1.9
  Dec 08, 2024 53   Vanderbilt L 74-83 41%     5 - 4 +1.6 +0.8 +1.3
  Dec 16, 2024 133   South Alabama W 58-49 81%     6 - 4 +8.0 -3.8 +13.3
  Dec 22, 2024 188   Montana St. W 82-48 88%     7 - 4 +29.9 +8.9 +21.4
  Dec 30, 2024 8   @ Arizona L 81-90 12%     7 - 5 0 - 1 +12.3 +25.5 -13.9
  Jan 04, 2025 56   Kansas St. W 63-62 51%     8 - 5 1 - 1 +9.0 -0.4 +9.5
  Jan 06, 2025 3   @ Houston L 46-65 7%     8 - 6 1 - 2 +6.0 -5.8 +8.2
  Jan 11, 2025 26   BYU W 71-67 35%     9 - 6 2 - 2 +16.3 +6.1 +10.5
  Jan 15, 2025 68   Utah L 65-73 60%     9 - 7 2 - 3 -2.3 -1.7 -0.9
  Jan 19, 2025 24   @ Baylor W 74-71 18%     10 - 7 3 - 3 +20.9 +10.6 +10.4
  Jan 22, 2025 19   Kansas L 61-74 31%     10 - 8 3 - 4 +0.6 -0.3 +0.3
  Jan 25, 2025 81   @ Central Florida L 58-85 45%     10 - 9 3 - 5 -17.4 -10.3 -7.8
  Jan 29, 2025 10   @ Texas Tech L 57-71 12%     10 - 10 3 - 6 +7.0 +0.3 +4.8
  Feb 02, 2025 91   Colorado W 68-57 70%     11 - 10 4 - 6 +14.0 +7.3 +8.1
  Feb 05, 2025 41   West Virginia W 65-60 46%     12 - 10 5 - 6 +14.5 +5.7 +9.3
  Feb 08, 2025 9   @ Iowa St. L 52-82 12%     12 - 11 5 - 7 -8.8 -6.3 -4.2
  Feb 12, 2025 92   Oklahoma St. W 73-72 70%     13 - 11 6 - 7 +4.0 -0.9 +4.9
  Feb 15, 2025 65   @ Arizona St. W 74-70 40%     14 - 11 7 - 7 +14.9 +2.5 +12.1
  Feb 18, 2025 10   Texas Tech W 69-66 24%     15 - 11 8 - 7 +18.9 +10.2 +9.0
  Feb 22, 2025 46   @ Cincinnati L 62-67 28%    
  Feb 25, 2025 41   @ West Virginia L 60-66 27%    
  Mar 01, 2025 81   Central Florida W 76-72 66%    
  Mar 04, 2025 24   Baylor L 67-71 35%    
  Mar 08, 2025 91   @ Colorado W 67-66 49%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.8 4th
5th 0.2 4.4 5.8 0.8 11.1 5th
6th 0.0 2.3 10.4 2.1 14.9 6th
7th 0.4 11.1 6.7 0.1 18.3 7th
8th 4.2 15.5 1.6 21.3 8th
9th 0.4 10.6 5.9 0.1 16.8 9th
10th 2.4 8.5 0.7 11.5 10th
11th 3.1 1.1 0.0 4.3 11th
12th 0.8 0.0 0.8 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 6.7 24.9 35.5 23.2 8.5 1.3 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 1.3% 87.6% 87.6% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.2 87.6%
12-8 8.5% 70.4% 0.4% 70.0% 9.7 0.1 0.6 1.6 2.5 1.2 2.5 70.3%
11-9 23.2% 39.1% 0.1% 38.9% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.5 5.2 0.4 14.1 39.0%
10-10 35.5% 16.5% 0.2% 16.3% 11.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 4.1 1.0 29.7 16.3%
9-11 24.9% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 11.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 24.4 2.0%
8-12 6.7% 0.3% 0.3% 11.0 0.0 6.7 0.3%
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 22.5% 0.1% 22.4% 10.3 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.1 5.8 10.8 1.5 77.5 22.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 92.3% 8.2 3.8 3.8 61.5 19.2 3.8
Lose Out 3.7%