Iowa St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+16.4#12
Expected Predictive Rating+2.1#159
Pace68.5#203
Improvement+0.0#177

Offense
Total Offense+6.2#37
First Shot+4.0#68
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#70
Layup/Dunks+3.1#80
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#20
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#280
Freethrows+0.1#180
Improvement-0.2#214

Defense
Total Defense+10.2#2
First Shot+7.3#16
After Offensive Rebounds+2.9#37
Layups/Dunks+3.0#89
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#245
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#135
Freethrows+3.6#33
Improvement+0.2#148
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 2.5% 4.4% 1.3%
#1 Seed 10.3% 16.3% 6.6%
Top 2 Seed 21.4% 31.7% 15.0%
Top 4 Seed 43.8% 57.5% 35.3%
Top 6 Seed 62.4% 76.0% 54.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 86.7% 94.2% 82.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 84.9% 93.1% 80.2%
Average Seed 4.8 4.1 5.3
.500 or above 95.1% 98.5% 93.0%
.500 or above in Conference 85.5% 90.6% 82.4%
Conference Champion 15.8% 20.9% 12.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.2% 0.9%
First Four2.6% 1.6% 3.3%
First Round85.6% 93.5% 80.7%
Second Round68.7% 78.7% 62.6%
Sweet Sixteen41.0% 50.3% 35.2%
Elite Eight22.3% 29.0% 18.1%
Final Four11.8% 16.2% 9.1%
Championship Game5.9% 8.4% 4.3%
National Champion3.0% 4.5% 2.1%

Next Game: Auburn (Neutral) - 38.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 64 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 28 - 8
Quad 26 - 114 - 9
Quad 32 - 016 - 9
Quad 46 - 022 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 83-44 99.8%    1 - 0 +15.3 -3.3 +16.5
  Nov 11, 2024 215   UMKC W 82-56 97%     2 - 0 +20.3 +12.3 +9.6
  Nov 18, 2024 361   IU Indianapolis W 87-52 99.5%    3 - 0 +17.3 +5.4 +11.7
  Nov 25, 2024 3   Auburn L 72-75 38%    
  Dec 04, 2024 15   Marquette W 73-68 67%    
  Dec 08, 2024 320   Jackson St. W 84-56 99%    
  Dec 12, 2024 41   @ Iowa W 77-75 57%    
  Dec 15, 2024 262   Nebraska Omaha W 83-58 99%    
  Dec 22, 2024 333   Morgan St. W 89-59 99.7%   
  Dec 30, 2024 70   @ Colorado W 71-66 69%    
  Jan 04, 2025 11   Baylor W 71-68 60%    
  Jan 07, 2025 54   Utah W 77-67 82%    
  Jan 11, 2025 14   @ Texas Tech L 68-70 44%    
  Jan 15, 2025 6   Kansas W 72-71 52%    
  Jan 18, 2025 76   @ West Virginia W 73-67 70%    
  Jan 21, 2025 71   Central Florida W 75-64 84%    
  Jan 25, 2025 53   @ Arizona St. W 72-68 64%    
  Jan 27, 2025 13   @ Arizona L 74-76 43%    
  Feb 01, 2025 66   Kansas St. W 74-63 83%    
  Feb 03, 2025 6   @ Kansas L 69-74 32%    
  Feb 08, 2025 60   TCU W 76-65 82%    
  Feb 11, 2025 71   @ Central Florida W 72-67 68%    
  Feb 15, 2025 18   Cincinnati W 72-67 68%    
  Feb 18, 2025 70   Colorado W 74-63 83%    
  Feb 22, 2025 4   @ Houston L 61-67 30%    
  Feb 25, 2025 86   @ Oklahoma St. W 76-69 71%    
  Mar 01, 2025 13   Arizona W 77-73 63%    
  Mar 04, 2025 34   BYU W 76-69 74%    
  Mar 08, 2025 66   @ Kansas St. W 71-66 67%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.8 4.7 3.4 1.5 0.4 15.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.8 5.2 4.2 1.7 0.3 0.0 14.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.7 5.2 3.6 0.9 0.1 0.0 12.9 3rd
4th 0.3 2.3 5.0 3.4 0.7 0.0 11.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.6 4.3 3.2 0.7 0.0 9.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 3.4 3.4 0.8 0.0 8.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.2 3.0 0.9 0.1 0.0 6.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 2.8 1.1 0.1 5.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.1 1.3 0.2 4.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.5 0.3 0.0 3.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.0 1.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 1.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.4 2.4 3.8 5.6 7.4 9.6 11.5 12.4 12.4 11.2 9.0 6.4 3.6 1.5 0.4 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
19-1 99.0% 1.5    1.4 0.1
18-2 92.4% 3.4    2.8 0.6 0.0
17-3 73.1% 4.7    3.0 1.5 0.2 0.0
16-4 42.5% 3.8    1.6 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
15-5 15.6% 1.8    0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 2.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 15.8% 15.8 9.7 4.5 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.4% 100.0% 50.6% 49.4% 1.1 0.4 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.5% 100.0% 40.5% 59.5% 1.2 1.2 0.3 0.0 100.0%
18-2 3.6% 100.0% 35.8% 64.2% 1.4 2.4 1.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-3 6.4% 100.0% 27.5% 72.5% 1.8 2.9 2.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 9.0% 100.0% 23.8% 76.2% 2.3 2.1 3.4 2.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-5 11.2% 100.0% 17.6% 82.4% 3.2 1.0 2.4 3.6 2.6 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 12.4% 99.9% 13.6% 86.3% 4.2 0.3 1.0 2.9 3.3 2.6 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-7 12.4% 99.5% 8.2% 91.3% 5.3 0.1 0.3 1.3 2.5 3.0 2.6 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.4%
12-8 11.5% 97.6% 5.6% 92.0% 6.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.9 2.5 2.6 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.3 97.5%
11-9 9.6% 92.3% 3.2% 89.0% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.3 2.0 2.0 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.7 92.0%
10-10 7.4% 80.3% 2.1% 78.2% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.1 1.5 79.9%
9-11 5.6% 50.0% 1.5% 48.5% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.0 0.1 2.8 49.3%
8-12 3.8% 20.6% 0.5% 20.1% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 3.0 20.2%
7-13 2.4% 5.2% 0.5% 4.7% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.2 4.7%
6-14 1.4% 1.3% 0.4% 0.9% 11.7 0.0 0.0 1.4 0.9%
5-15 0.7% 0.7
4-16 0.4% 0.4
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 86.7% 11.9% 74.8% 4.8 10.3 11.0 11.6 10.8 9.9 8.8 7.9 6.1 4.0 3.2 2.7 0.3 0.0 13.3 84.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 87.9 12.1