Iowa St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+20.5#4
Expected Predictive Rating+22.3#4
Pace70.6#123
Improvement-0.2#193

Offense
Total Offense+9.7#13
First Shot+7.6#21
After Offensive Rebound+2.1#60
Layup/Dunks+4.9#29
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#46
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#259
Freethrows+2.6#44
Improvement-3.7#343

Defense
Total Defense+10.8#4
First Shot+8.4#11
After Offensive Rebounds+2.4#24
Layups/Dunks+5.7#26
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#321
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#95
Freethrows+2.7#31
Improvement+3.5#31
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 3.8% 3.9% 1.6%
#1 Seed 24.4% 25.2% 13.3%
Top 2 Seed 55.8% 57.2% 38.2%
Top 4 Seed 90.0% 90.9% 79.2%
Top 6 Seed 98.5% 98.7% 95.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 2.6 2.5 3.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Conference Champion 40.8% 42.2% 22.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round96.0% 96.3% 92.4%
Sweet Sixteen71.3% 71.9% 63.1%
Elite Eight44.9% 45.3% 38.9%
Final Four25.5% 25.8% 21.3%
Championship Game14.1% 14.4% 10.7%
National Champion7.4% 7.6% 4.6%

Next Game: Central Florida (Home) - 93.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 45 - 4
Quad 1b4 - 19 - 5
Quad 28 - 117 - 6
Quad 34 - 021 - 6
Quad 46 - 027 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 83-44 100.0%    1 - 0 +10.2 -6.9 +14.9
  Nov 11, 2024 223   UMKC W 82-56 98%     2 - 0 +19.7 +12.1 +9.2
  Nov 18, 2024 327   IU Indianapolis W 87-52 99%     3 - 0 +22.0 +4.7 +17.1
  Nov 25, 2024 2   Auburn L 81-83 40%     3 - 1 +21.1 +14.7 +6.4
  Nov 26, 2024 76   Dayton W 89-84 89%     4 - 1 +12.3 +19.6 -7.3
  Nov 27, 2024 95   Colorado W 99-71 91%     5 - 1 +34.0 +25.9 +6.8
  Dec 04, 2024 20   Marquette W 81-70 77%     6 - 1 +23.9 +14.9 +8.9
  Dec 08, 2024 280   Jackson St. W 100-58 99%     7 - 1 +32.4 +19.1 +10.8
  Dec 12, 2024 52   @ Iowa W 89-80 75%     8 - 1 +22.3 +16.2 +6.0
  Dec 15, 2024 221   Nebraska Omaha W 83-51 98%     9 - 1 +25.9 +6.2 +20.0
  Dec 22, 2024 333   Morgan St. W 99-72 99.6%    10 - 1 +12.9 +11.2 +0.3
  Dec 30, 2024 95   @ Colorado W 79-69 86%     11 - 1 1 - 0 +18.7 +13.8 +5.2
  Jan 04, 2025 22   Baylor W 74-55 78%     12 - 1 2 - 0 +31.5 +11.3 +21.7
  Jan 07, 2025 70   Utah W 82-59 91%     13 - 1 3 - 0 +28.4 +12.9 +15.6
  Jan 11, 2025 16   @ Texas Tech W 85-84 OT 55%     14 - 1 4 - 0 +20.3 +12.9 +7.3
  Jan 15, 2025 6   Kansas W 74-57 64%     15 - 1 5 - 0 +33.8 +9.9 +23.5
  Jan 18, 2025 32   @ West Virginia L 57-64 68%     15 - 2 5 - 1 +8.7 -3.3 +11.6
  Jan 21, 2025 71   Central Florida W 84-69 93%    
  Jan 25, 2025 63   @ Arizona St. W 77-68 80%    
  Jan 27, 2025 13   @ Arizona W 78-77 52%    
  Feb 01, 2025 89   Kansas St. W 81-64 95%    
  Feb 03, 2025 6   @ Kansas L 71-73 43%    
  Feb 08, 2025 62   TCU W 77-63 92%    
  Feb 11, 2025 71   @ Central Florida W 81-71 82%    
  Feb 15, 2025 39   Cincinnati W 73-62 86%    
  Feb 18, 2025 95   Colorado W 81-64 95%    
  Feb 22, 2025 3   @ Houston L 64-68 35%    
  Feb 25, 2025 101   @ Oklahoma St. W 81-68 89%    
  Mar 01, 2025 13   Arizona W 80-74 73%    
  Mar 04, 2025 43   BYU W 80-68 86%    
  Mar 08, 2025 89   @ Kansas St. W 78-67 84%    
Projected Record 26 - 5 16 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.0 9.4 16.0 10.6 2.8 40.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 2.4 10.4 13.4 6.0 0.9 33.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 5.2 6.7 1.5 0.0 14.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.4 3.4 0.9 0.0 7.0 4th
5th 0.1 0.7 1.6 0.6 0.0 3.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 5.3 11.7 20.0 24.4 22.0 11.5 2.8 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 2.8    2.7 0.0
18-2 92.0% 10.6    9.0 1.6 0.0
17-3 72.8% 16.0    9.5 6.1 0.5
16-4 38.5% 9.4    2.9 4.5 1.8 0.2
15-5 10.1% 2.0    0.2 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 40.8% 40.8 24.3 13.0 3.1 0.5 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 2.8% 100.0% 46.0% 54.0% 1.3 2.1 0.6 0.0 100.0%
18-2 11.5% 100.0% 36.0% 64.0% 1.4 7.0 4.2 0.4 100.0%
17-3 22.0% 100.0% 31.2% 68.8% 1.8 9.0 9.7 2.9 0.4 0.0 100.0%
16-4 24.4% 100.0% 25.8% 74.2% 2.3 4.6 10.4 6.8 2.3 0.2 100.0%
15-5 20.0% 100.0% 21.1% 79.0% 3.0 1.5 5.3 6.8 4.9 1.2 0.3 100.0%
14-6 11.7% 100.0% 15.7% 84.3% 3.9 0.2 1.2 3.1 4.0 2.3 0.8 0.2 100.0%
13-7 5.3% 100.0% 10.1% 89.9% 4.7 0.2 0.8 1.5 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-8 1.7% 100.0% 9.6% 90.4% 5.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-9 0.6% 100.0% 4.7% 95.3% 6.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-10 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
9-11 0.0% 0.0 0.0
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 25.3% 74.7% 2.6 24.4 31.5 21.0 13.2 6.0 2.5 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.3% 100.0% 1.1 89.8 9.4 0.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4% 100.0% 1.4 64.3 35.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6% 100.0% 1.4 66.7 30.2 3.2