Texas Tech
Big 12
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+19.7#7
Expected Predictive Rating+17.6#11
Pace65.0#268
Improvement+2.5#91

Offense
Total Offense+12.1#9
First Shot+10.0#10
After Offensive Rebound+2.1#67
Layup/Dunks+0.8#150
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#18
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.3#38
Freethrows+0.0#173
Improvement+0.5#165

Defense
Total Defense+7.6#23
First Shot+5.8#36
After Offensive Rebounds+1.9#48
Layups/Dunks+7.9#10
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.8#356
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#181
Freethrows+2.3#48
Improvement+2.0#86
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
#1 Seed 6.6% 8.3% 1.7%
Top 2 Seed 42.9% 49.8% 22.8%
Top 4 Seed 98.3% 99.1% 96.0%
Top 6 Seed 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 2.7 2.5 3.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round96.5% 96.7% 95.8%
Sweet Sixteen66.6% 67.1% 65.3%
Elite Eight37.1% 38.0% 34.5%
Final Four17.3% 17.6% 16.2%
Championship Game7.8% 7.9% 7.6%
National Champion3.2% 3.0% 3.5%

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 54 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 09 - 5
Quad 25 - 213 - 7
Quad 36 - 120 - 8
Quad 46 - 025 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 289   Bethune-Cookman W 94-61 99%     1 - 0 +22.8 +20.6 +3.0
  Nov 08, 2024 244   Northwestern St. W 86-65 99%     2 - 0 +13.7 +13.1 +1.2
  Nov 13, 2024 176   Wyoming W 96-49 97%     3 - 0 +43.3 +23.5 +20.3
  Nov 18, 2024 363   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 98-64 99.8%    4 - 0 +12.8 +10.7 +0.9
  Nov 21, 2024 76   Saint Joseph's L 77-78 87%     4 - 1 +6.4 +8.0 -1.5
  Nov 22, 2024 102   Syracuse W 79-74 92%     5 - 1 +9.3 +9.6 -0.1
  Nov 29, 2024 130   Northern Colorado W 89-64 96%     6 - 1 +24.1 +13.9 +10.2
  Dec 04, 2024 116   DePaul W 76-62 95%     7 - 1 +14.4 +7.3 +8.0
  Dec 08, 2024 22   Texas A&M L 67-72 63%     7 - 2 +11.3 +7.9 +3.1
  Dec 16, 2024 321   Oral Roberts W 86-50 99%     8 - 2 +23.7 +9.4 +16.2
  Dec 21, 2024 181   Lamar W 101-57 98%     9 - 2 +40.0 +30.3 +10.4
  Dec 31, 2024 78   Central Florida L 83-87 91%     9 - 3 0 - 1 +0.6 +7.9 -7.2
  Jan 04, 2025 64   @ Utah W 93-65 78%     10 - 3 1 - 1 +39.5 +40.4 +3.5
  Jan 07, 2025 20   @ BYU W 72-67 52%     11 - 3 2 - 1 +24.2 +15.8 +9.2
  Jan 11, 2025 10   Iowa St. L 84-85 OT 64%     11 - 4 2 - 2 +14.9 +13.8 +1.2
  Jan 14, 2025 59   @ Kansas St. W 61-57 75%     12 - 4 3 - 2 +16.5 +5.8 +11.3
  Jan 18, 2025 12   Arizona W 70-54 67%     13 - 4 4 - 2 +31.2 +6.1 +25.7
  Jan 21, 2025 45   @ Cincinnati W 81-71 70%     14 - 4 5 - 2 +24.3 +22.1 +2.7
  Jan 26, 2025 91   Oklahoma St. W 64-54 93%     15 - 4 6 - 2 +12.9 -2.0 +15.5
  Jan 29, 2025 77   TCU W 71-57 91%     16 - 4 7 - 2 +18.6 +13.3 +7.2
  Feb 01, 2025 4   @ Houston W 82-81 OT 29%     17 - 4 8 - 2 +26.6 +21.0 +5.5
  Feb 04, 2025 27   Baylor W 73-59 77%     18 - 4 9 - 2 +26.0 +9.3 +17.7
  Feb 08, 2025 12   @ Arizona L 73-82 46%     18 - 5 9 - 3 +11.7 +7.7 +4.2
  Feb 12, 2025 73   Arizona St. W 111-106 2OT 91%     19 - 5 10 - 3 +9.8 +19.4 -10.5
  Feb 15, 2025 91   @ Oklahoma St. W 93-55 86%     20 - 5 11 - 3 +46.4 +26.8 +19.9
  Feb 18, 2025 77   @ TCU L 66-69 82%     20 - 6 11 - 4 +7.1 +9.3 -2.5
  Feb 22, 2025 43   West Virginia W 73-51 84%     21 - 6 12 - 4 +31.0 +15.5 +17.7
  Feb 24, 2025 4   Houston L 61-69 49%     21 - 7 12 - 5 +12.1 +6.1 +4.9
  Mar 01, 2025 18   @ Kansas W 78-73 51%     22 - 7 13 - 5 +24.6 +20.1 +4.7
  Mar 05, 2025 85   Colorado W 91-75 92%     23 - 7 14 - 5 +19.9 +25.8 -5.3
  Mar 08, 2025 73   @ Arizona St. W 85-57 81%     24 - 7 15 - 5 +38.3 +25.6 +15.5
Projected Record 24 - 7 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 100.0 100.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 100.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0%
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 100.0% 100.0% 20.8% 79.2% 2.7 6.6 36.2 41.3 14.1 1.6 0.1 100.0%
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 20.8% 79.2% 2.7 6.6 36.2 41.3 14.1 1.6 0.1 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 20.8% 100.0% 2.1 16.9 58.0 23.6 1.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 23.3% 100.0% 2.5 7.1 43.8 42.3 6.6 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 30.1% 100.0% 2.9 3.4 28.3 47.7 18.5 2.1 0.1
Lose Out 25.8% 100.0% 3.1 1.7 21.1 47.3 25.9 3.7 0.2