Texas Tech
Big 12
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.0#14
Expected Predictive Rating+15.0#26
Pace64.9#272
Improvement+1.4#116

Offense
Total Offense+9.8#12
First Shot+8.1#18
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#93
Layup/Dunks+0.2#173
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#22
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#54
Freethrows-0.3#191
Improvement-1.7#287

Defense
Total Defense+7.1#27
First Shot+5.4#39
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#52
Layups/Dunks+7.8#10
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.9#357
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#190
Freethrows+2.2#47
Improvement+3.1#40
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 1.0% 0.1%
#1 Seed 3.1% 8.2% 1.9%
Top 2 Seed 11.5% 24.6% 8.2%
Top 4 Seed 48.5% 70.2% 43.2%
Top 6 Seed 82.8% 94.2% 80.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.3% 99.9% 99.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.2% 99.9% 99.1%
Average Seed 4.7 3.7 4.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.7% 100.0% 99.6%
Conference Champion 4.5% 15.7% 1.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round99.2% 99.9% 99.1%
Second Round82.0% 88.2% 80.5%
Sweet Sixteen45.3% 54.1% 43.1%
Elite Eight20.2% 26.2% 18.7%
Final Four8.9% 12.8% 7.9%
Championship Game3.6% 6.1% 3.0%
National Champion1.4% 2.1% 1.3%

Next Game: Houston (Away) - 19.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 54 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 27 - 6
Quad 25 - 212 - 8
Quad 36 - 118 - 9
Quad 46 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 279   Bethune-Cookman W 94-61 98%     1 - 0 +23.8 +22.8 +1.8
  Nov 08, 2024 278   Northwestern St. W 86-65 98%     2 - 0 +11.8 +11.9 +0.5
  Nov 13, 2024 175   Wyoming W 96-49 96%     3 - 0 +43.9 +23.6 +20.7
  Nov 18, 2024 363   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 98-64 99.7%    4 - 0 +13.5 +9.3 +3.1
  Nov 21, 2024 86   Saint Joseph's L 77-78 83%     4 - 1 +5.9 +8.0 -2.1
  Nov 22, 2024 104   Syracuse W 79-74 88%     5 - 1 +9.0 +10.8 -1.6
  Nov 29, 2024 171   Northern Colorado W 89-64 96%     6 - 1 +22.1 +12.6 +9.5
  Dec 04, 2024 117   DePaul W 76-62 93%     7 - 1 +14.1 +6.8 +8.1
  Dec 08, 2024 21   Texas A&M L 67-72 54%     7 - 2 +10.9 +7.1 +3.5
  Dec 16, 2024 322   Oral Roberts W 86-50 99%     8 - 2 +24.0 +8.2 +17.7
  Dec 21, 2024 228   Lamar W 101-57 97%     9 - 2 +37.9 +29.0 +9.5
  Dec 31, 2024 60   Central Florida L 83-87 83%     9 - 3 0 - 1 +2.7 +9.3 -6.4
  Jan 04, 2025 77   @ Utah W 93-65 75%     10 - 3 1 - 1 +38.0 +40.6 +1.8
  Jan 07, 2025 32   @ BYU W 72-67 54%     11 - 3 2 - 1 +20.9 +14.7 +7.0
  Jan 11, 2025 5   Iowa St. L 84-85 OT 47%     11 - 4 2 - 2 +16.8 +13.6 +3.2
  Jan 14, 2025 66   @ Kansas St. W 61-57 72%     12 - 4 3 - 2 +15.0 +2.6 +12.9
  Jan 18, 2025 11   Arizona W 70-54 57%     13 - 4 4 - 2 +31.1 +6.7 +25.1
  Jan 21, 2025 51   @ Cincinnati W 81-71 66%     14 - 4 5 - 2 +22.8 +22.5 +0.9
  Jan 26, 2025 107   Oklahoma St. W 64-54 92%     15 - 4 6 - 2 +11.2 -2.9 +14.7
  Jan 29, 2025 76   TCU W 71-57 87%     16 - 4 7 - 2 +19.0 +12.9 +8.0
  Feb 01, 2025 1   @ Houston L 60-69 20%    
  Feb 04, 2025 22   Baylor W 74-70 67%    
  Feb 08, 2025 11   @ Arizona L 74-77 36%    
  Feb 12, 2025 61   Arizona St. W 76-66 84%    
  Feb 15, 2025 107   @ Oklahoma St. W 78-67 83%    
  Feb 18, 2025 76   @ TCU W 72-65 73%    
  Feb 22, 2025 43   West Virginia W 71-63 79%    
  Feb 24, 2025 1   Houston L 63-67 38%    
  Mar 01, 2025 7   @ Kansas L 70-75 32%    
  Mar 05, 2025 96   Colorado W 78-64 92%    
  Mar 08, 2025 61   @ Arizona St. W 73-68 68%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.9 1.8 0.6 4.5 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 6.5 5.9 1.0 14.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.0 9.5 9.6 1.9 0.0 23.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 9.6 10.8 2.6 0.0 24.8 4th
5th 0.0 1.4 7.0 9.4 2.2 0.1 20.1 5th
6th 0.4 2.8 4.3 1.0 0.0 8.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 1.6 0.5 2.8 7th
8th 0.1 0.6 0.3 1.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.0 0.3 2.0 6.2 13.5 22.0 23.7 19.1 9.8 2.8 0.6 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.6    0.4 0.1
17-3 63.7% 1.8    0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0
16-4 19.2% 1.9    0.2 0.8 0.7 0.2
15-5 1.4% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.5% 4.5 1.4 1.7 1.0 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.6% 100.0% 16.4% 83.6% 1.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.8% 100.0% 23.8% 76.2% 2.0 0.8 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 9.8% 100.0% 14.4% 85.6% 2.7 1.3 3.0 3.6 1.7 0.3 0.0 100.0%
15-5 19.1% 100.0% 12.4% 87.6% 3.5 0.6 2.7 6.2 6.4 2.7 0.5 0.0 100.0%
14-6 23.7% 100.0% 8.3% 91.7% 4.4 0.2 0.8 4.0 7.9 6.8 3.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-7 22.0% 99.6% 6.1% 93.6% 5.4 0.2 1.3 4.1 6.2 6.3 3.0 0.7 0.2 0.1 99.6%
12-8 13.5% 99.0% 3.2% 95.8% 6.3 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.3 4.1 3.2 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.1 99.0%
11-9 6.2% 96.9% 2.1% 94.8% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.4 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.2 96.9%
10-10 2.0% 93.4% 0.5% 92.9% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.1 93.4%
9-11 0.3% 50.0% 3.3% 46.7% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 48.3%
8-12 0.0% 0.0
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.3% 8.4% 90.9% 4.7 3.1 8.3 15.9 21.2 18.8 15.5 8.6 4.8 2.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.7 99.2%