Arizona
Big 12
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+18.7#8
Expected Predictive Rating+16.7#17
Pace74.7#39
Improvement+2.9#68

Offense
Total Offense+8.5#22
First Shot+6.2#41
After Offensive Rebound+2.3#47
Layup/Dunks+8.9#3
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#233
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#286
Freethrows+1.5#88
Improvement-0.9#226

Defense
Total Defense+10.2#6
First Shot+8.5#9
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#62
Layups/Dunks+7.9#10
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#245
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#205
Freethrows+1.3#96
Improvement+3.8#27
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.9% 1.2% 0.1%
#1 Seed 10.8% 13.1% 4.4%
Top 2 Seed 38.0% 44.5% 19.4%
Top 4 Seed 88.8% 92.9% 76.9%
Top 6 Seed 99.4% 99.9% 98.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 3.0 2.7 3.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 10.2% 13.0% 2.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round95.2% 96.1% 92.5%
Sweet Sixteen62.8% 64.2% 58.8%
Elite Eight32.4% 34.1% 27.8%
Final Four15.5% 16.7% 12.3%
Championship Game7.1% 7.8% 5.3%
National Champion3.2% 3.5% 2.2%

Next Game: BYU (Home) - 73.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 65 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 29 - 9
Quad 25 - 214 - 10
Quad 35 - 019 - 10
Quad 44 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 354   Canisius W 93-64 99.6%    1 - 0 +12.9 +6.8 +5.3
  Nov 09, 2024 286   Old Dominion W 102-44 99%     2 - 0 +48.5 +18.6 +26.8
  Nov 15, 2024 7   @ Wisconsin L 88-103 40%     2 - 1 +6.3 +9.7 -1.2
  Nov 22, 2024 2   Duke L 55-69 41%     2 - 2 +7.0 -6.9 +13.4
  Nov 27, 2024 129   Davidson W 104-71 93%     3 - 2 +34.7 +18.2 +12.9
  Nov 28, 2024 50   Oklahoma L 77-82 77%     3 - 3 +5.9 +9.2 -3.4
  Nov 29, 2024 41   West Virginia L 76-83 OT 74%     3 - 4 +5.1 +9.1 -3.7
  Dec 07, 2024 282   Southern Utah W 102-66 99%     4 - 4 +26.8 +16.5 +7.0
  Dec 14, 2024 27   UCLA L 54-57 65%     4 - 5 +11.7 -5.7 +17.2
  Dec 18, 2024 113   Samford W 96-64 95%     5 - 5 +32.4 +20.7 +11.0
  Dec 21, 2024 215   Central Michigan W 94-41 98%     6 - 5 +47.7 +18.4 +29.4
  Dec 30, 2024 64   TCU W 90-81 88%     7 - 5 1 - 0 +14.8 +29.9 -14.4
  Jan 04, 2025 46   @ Cincinnati W 72-67 68%     8 - 5 2 - 0 +18.8 +8.8 +10.0
  Jan 07, 2025 41   @ West Virginia W 75-56 65%     9 - 5 3 - 0 +33.6 +19.6 +15.9
  Jan 11, 2025 81   Central Florida W 88-80 90%     10 - 5 4 - 0 +12.5 +8.8 +3.0
  Jan 14, 2025 24   Baylor W 81-70 71%     11 - 5 5 - 0 +23.8 +15.1 +9.1
  Jan 18, 2025 10   @ Texas Tech L 54-70 41%     11 - 6 5 - 1 +5.0 -8.2 +12.5
  Jan 21, 2025 92   @ Oklahoma St. W 92-78 84%     12 - 6 6 - 1 +22.1 +26.6 -4.1
  Jan 25, 2025 91   Colorado W 78-63 92%     13 - 6 7 - 1 +18.0 +12.5 +6.3
  Jan 27, 2025 9   Iowa St. W 86-75 OT 60%     14 - 6 8 - 1 +27.1 +12.2 +13.6
  Feb 01, 2025 65   @ Arizona St. W 81-72 77%     15 - 6 9 - 1 +19.9 +9.2 +10.1
  Feb 04, 2025 26   @ BYU W 85-74 55%     16 - 6 10 - 1 +28.4 +15.6 +12.5
  Feb 08, 2025 10   Texas Tech W 82-73 61%     17 - 6 11 - 1 +24.9 +13.6 +11.1
  Feb 11, 2025 56   @ Kansas St. L 70-73 71%     17 - 7 11 - 2 +10.1 -1.8 +12.2
  Feb 15, 2025 3   Houston L 58-62 45%     17 - 8 11 - 3 +15.9 +1.6 +13.8
  Feb 17, 2025 24   @ Baylor W 74-67 53%     18 - 8 12 - 3 +24.9 +9.6 +15.5
  Feb 22, 2025 26   BYU W 80-74 74%    
  Feb 26, 2025 68   Utah W 83-70 90%    
  Mar 01, 2025 9   @ Iowa St. L 74-76 39%    
  Mar 04, 2025 65   Arizona St. W 82-69 90%    
  Mar 08, 2025 19   @ Kansas W 75-74 48%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 4.7 5.2 10.2 1st
2nd 0.0 3.8 27.3 30.7 7.1 68.9 2nd
3rd 0.6 7.0 7.5 15.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 3.6 0.3 5.6 4th
5th 0.1 0.1 0.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.1 2.4 14.4 35.5 35.4 12.3 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 42.2% 5.2    1.6 3.6
16-4 13.3% 4.7    0.5 2.7 1.5 0.1
15-5 0.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
14-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9
10-10
Total 10.2% 10.2 2.1 6.3 1.6 0.3



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 12.3% 100.0% 21.5% 78.5% 1.9 4.2 5.8 2.0 0.3 100.0%
16-4 35.4% 100.0% 19.6% 80.4% 2.4 5.1 14.2 12.2 3.5 0.4 0.0 100.0%
15-5 35.5% 100.0% 15.5% 84.5% 3.3 1.4 6.4 13.2 10.5 3.5 0.5 0.0 100.0%
14-6 14.4% 100.0% 12.2% 87.8% 4.1 0.1 0.7 3.4 5.0 3.3 1.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-7 2.4% 100.0% 6.7% 93.3% 5.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.0 100.0%
12-8 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 17.0% 83.0% 3.0 10.8 27.1 31.0 19.8 8.0 2.6 0.5 0.1 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.6% 100.0% 1.4 62.5 35.2 2.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.0% 100.0% 1.8 35.9 48.0 16.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.8% 100.0% 2.0 25.1 55.6 17.5 1.9