Southern Utah
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.7#282
Expected Predictive Rating-6.0#269
Pace70.9#107
Improvement-5.3#347

Offense
Total Offense-4.6#304
First Shot-6.3#334
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#90
Layup/Dunks-5.4#342
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.7#11
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#294
Freethrows-1.8#285
Improvement-4.5#348

Defense
Total Defense-2.0#227
First Shot-2.0#237
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#193
Layups/Dunks-1.9#256
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.0#357
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#25
Freethrows+0.7#130
Improvement-0.8#230
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 56.8% 14.9% 85.7%
First Four0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
First Round0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah Tech (Away) - 40.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 31 - 71 - 12
Quad 48 - 69 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 268   Florida International W 80-75 56%     1 - 0 -3.1 -4.8 +1.0
  Nov 16, 2024 187   Nebraska Omaha W 79-73 40%     2 - 0 +1.9 +1.5 +0.4
  Nov 19, 2024 110   @ Loyola Chicago L 72-76 12%     2 - 1 +1.9 +8.2 -6.6
  Nov 22, 2024 314   @ San Diego W 72-67 50%     3 - 1 -1.6 -6.5 +4.7
  Nov 23, 2024 253   Idaho W 82-67 44%     4 - 1 +9.8 +20.3 -7.3
  Nov 26, 2024 27   @ UCLA L 43-88 2%     4 - 2 -27.7 -20.9 -6.0
  Nov 30, 2024 240   Cal St. Bakersfield W 74-64 51%     5 - 2 +3.1 -1.2 +4.6
  Dec 07, 2024 8   @ Arizona L 66-102 1%     5 - 3 -14.7 -1.4 -10.0
  Dec 16, 2024 146   @ New Mexico St. L 69-72 17%     5 - 4 +0.4 -1.0 +1.4
  Dec 18, 2024 262   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 73-78 36%     5 - 5 -7.9 -4.3 -3.4
  Dec 21, 2024 264   Northern Arizona L 75-83 55%     5 - 6 -16.0 -4.1 -11.7
  Jan 04, 2025 89   @ Grand Canyon L 71-82 9%     5 - 7 0 - 1 -2.6 +2.1 -4.3
  Jan 09, 2025 273   Tarleton St. L 66-74 58%     5 - 8 0 - 2 -16.9 -7.0 -9.8
  Jan 11, 2025 205   Texas Arlington W 73-68 43%     6 - 8 1 - 2 +0.1 -4.9 +5.0
  Jan 18, 2025 165   @ Seattle L 52-75 20%     6 - 9 1 - 3 -20.7 -16.7 -4.7
  Jan 23, 2025 89   Grand Canyon L 59-74 17%     6 - 10 1 - 4 -11.7 -10.0 -1.7
  Jan 25, 2025 158   California Baptist L 60-76 34%     6 - 11 1 - 5 -18.3 -9.2 -10.4
  Jan 30, 2025 205   @ Texas Arlington L 68-70 26%     6 - 12 1 - 6 -1.8 +0.1 -2.2
  Feb 01, 2025 273   @ Tarleton St. L 58-75 39%     6 - 13 1 - 7 -20.8 -11.6 -9.2
  Feb 06, 2025 158   @ California Baptist W 60-57 19%     7 - 13 2 - 7 +5.8 -6.4 +12.4
  Feb 08, 2025 211   Abilene Christian L 70-84 44%     7 - 14 2 - 8 -19.2 -4.7 -13.8
  Feb 13, 2025 290   Utah Tech W 76-74 61%     8 - 14 3 - 8 -7.6 +2.7 -10.1
  Feb 15, 2025 125   Utah Valley L 68-70 28%     8 - 15 3 - 9 -2.5 +0.6 -3.2
  Feb 20, 2025 211   @ Abilene Christian L 59-75 26%     8 - 16 3 - 10 -16.1 -11.3 -4.4
  Feb 27, 2025 290   @ Utah Tech L 73-75 41%    
  Mar 01, 2025 125   @ Utah Valley L 66-77 13%    
  Mar 06, 2025 165   Seattle L 68-72 38%    
Projected Record 9 - 18 4 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.1 0.1 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 0.9 6th
7th 2.7 1.2 3.9 7th
8th 9.9 37.0 16.6 0.5 63.9 8th
9th 23.2 7.8 0.2 31.1 9th
Total 33.0 44.8 19.6 2.6 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10 2.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 2.6
5-11 19.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 19.5
4-12 44.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 44.7
3-13 33.0% 33.0
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%
Lose Out 33.0%