Southern Utah
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.2#208
Expected Predictive Rating+1.7#166
Pace72.6#89
Improvement+0.1#159

Offense
Total Offense+0.0#174
First Shot-2.5#248
After Offensive Rebound+2.5#60
Layup/Dunks-4.9#319
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#31
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#272
Freethrows+1.6#104
Improvement+0.5#106

Defense
Total Defense-2.3#247
First Shot-1.1#217
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#266
Layups/Dunks-1.9#239
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#328
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#81
Freethrows+1.0#131
Improvement-0.3#238
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.8% 8.2% 4.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.8 14.3
.500 or above 48.4% 59.3% 33.4%
.500 or above in Conference 53.1% 59.0% 44.9%
Conference Champion 7.4% 9.1% 4.9%
Last Place in Conference 8.6% 6.6% 11.4%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
First Round6.6% 8.1% 4.6%
Second Round0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Diego (Away) - 57.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 33 - 63 - 11
Quad 410 - 414 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 275   Florida International W 80-75 74%     1 - 0 -3.8 -6.6 +2.1
  Nov 16, 2024 259   Nebraska Omaha W 79-73 71%     2 - 0 -2.1 +2.2 -4.3
  Nov 19, 2024 104   @ Loyola Chicago L 72-76 18%     2 - 1 +3.4 +8.5 -5.4
  Nov 22, 2024 298   @ San Diego W 78-76 58%    
  Nov 23, 2024 284   Idaho W 77-73 65%    
  Nov 26, 2024 27   @ UCLA L 61-79 5%    
  Nov 30, 2024 237   Cal St. Bakersfield W 74-69 66%    
  Dec 07, 2024 13   @ Arizona L 71-92 3%    
  Dec 16, 2024 163   @ New Mexico St. L 70-75 33%    
  Dec 18, 2024 193   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 79-83 36%    
  Dec 21, 2024 277   Northern Arizona W 77-70 72%    
  Jan 04, 2025 108   @ Grand Canyon L 72-81 20%    
  Jan 09, 2025 318   Tarleton St. W 79-69 80%    
  Jan 11, 2025 166   Texas Arlington W 82-81 54%    
  Jan 18, 2025 135   @ Seattle L 71-78 27%    
  Jan 23, 2025 108   Grand Canyon L 75-78 39%    
  Jan 25, 2025 209   California Baptist W 75-72 61%    
  Jan 30, 2025 166   @ Texas Arlington L 79-84 34%    
  Feb 01, 2025 318   @ Tarleton St. W 76-72 62%    
  Feb 06, 2025 209   @ California Baptist L 72-75 40%    
  Feb 08, 2025 214   Abilene Christian W 76-73 61%    
  Feb 13, 2025 304   Utah Tech W 82-73 77%    
  Feb 15, 2025 136   Utah Valley L 72-73 47%    
  Feb 20, 2025 214   @ Abilene Christian L 73-76 41%    
  Feb 27, 2025 304   @ Utah Tech W 79-76 59%    
  Mar 01, 2025 136   @ Utah Valley L 69-76 28%    
  Mar 06, 2025 135   Seattle L 74-75 46%    
Projected Record 13 - 14 8 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.2 2.3 2.1 1.1 0.4 0.1 7.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.6 4.0 2.4 0.5 0.1 10.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.7 5.2 2.1 0.3 0.0 12.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 4.7 6.1 2.1 0.2 0.0 13.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 5.0 6.3 2.0 0.1 14.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 5.2 6.3 1.9 0.1 15.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.8 5.1 4.8 1.4 0.0 13.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.4 2.7 0.7 0.0 9.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 4.7 9th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.7 3.8 6.2 9.4 11.7 13.5 13.7 12.4 10.3 7.5 5.1 2.6 1.1 0.4 0.1 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
14-2 94.8% 1.1    1.0 0.1
13-3 80.3% 2.1    1.4 0.7 0.0
12-4 46.2% 2.3    1.1 1.0 0.3 0.0
11-5 16.0% 1.2    0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
10-6 1.9% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 7.4% 7.4 4.1 2.3 0.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.1% 70.8% 70.8% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-1 0.4% 51.0% 50.3% 0.7% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 1.4%
14-2 1.1% 36.9% 36.9% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7
13-3 2.6% 32.2% 32.2% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 1.8
12-4 5.1% 24.3% 24.3% 13.7 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 3.8
11-5 7.5% 17.8% 17.8% 14.0 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.0 6.2
10-6 10.3% 11.4% 11.4% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 9.1
9-7 12.4% 6.0% 6.0% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 11.6
8-8 13.7% 3.0% 3.0% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 13.3
7-9 13.5% 1.5% 1.5% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 13.3
6-10 11.7% 0.9% 0.9% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 11.6
5-11 9.4% 0.4% 0.4% 15.9 0.0 0.0 9.4
4-12 6.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.2
3-13 3.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.8
2-14 1.7% 1.7
1-15 0.5% 0.5
0-16 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 6.8% 6.7% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 2.2 1.7 0.5 93.3 0.0%