Preseason Rankings
Abilene Christian
Western Athletic
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating-0.8#184
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.5#114
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.0#209
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#160
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.5% 8.0% 3.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 13.1 13.8
.500 or above 46.0% 55.5% 29.0%
.500 or above in Conference 50.9% 57.0% 40.0%
Conference Champion 6.8% 8.5% 3.7%
Last Place in Conference 12.0% 9.0% 17.4%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round6.4% 7.9% 3.6%
Second Round0.9% 1.1% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Middle Tennessee (Home) - 64.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 34 - 65 - 12
Quad 49 - 414 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 197   Middle Tennessee W 70-66 64%    
  Nov 16, 2024 185   Texas St. W 71-68 62%    
  Nov 20, 2024 176   @ Kennesaw St. L 79-82 39%    
  Nov 25, 2024 236   Southern Miss W 73-70 59%    
  Nov 26, 2024 149   @ Montana St. L 70-75 34%    
  Nov 30, 2024 302   @ Nebraska Omaha W 73-70 62%    
  Dec 04, 2024 161   @ New Mexico St. L 68-72 37%    
  Dec 09, 2024 9   @ Baylor L 62-82 4%    
  Dec 18, 2024 355   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 74-64 81%    
  Dec 21, 2024 261   Texas Southern W 74-67 73%    
  Dec 28, 2024 19   @ Texas A&M L 63-80 8%    
  Dec 31, 2024 164   Stephen F. Austin W 73-71 57%    
  Jan 04, 2025 151   @ Utah Valley L 67-71 36%    
  Jan 11, 2025 127   @ Seattle L 66-72 31%    
  Jan 16, 2025 69   @ Grand Canyon L 67-79 16%    
  Jan 18, 2025 163   California Baptist W 68-66 57%    
  Jan 23, 2025 221   Tarleton St. W 73-68 67%    
  Jan 25, 2025 145   Texas Arlington W 76-75 54%    
  Jan 30, 2025 163   @ California Baptist L 65-69 37%    
  Feb 06, 2025 276   @ Utah Tech W 75-73 56%    
  Feb 08, 2025 218   @ Southern Utah L 74-75 47%    
  Feb 13, 2025 127   Seattle L 68-69 50%    
  Feb 20, 2025 218   Southern Utah W 77-72 66%    
  Feb 22, 2025 276   Utah Tech W 78-70 74%    
  Feb 27, 2025 221   @ Tarleton St. L 70-71 47%    
  Mar 01, 2025 145   @ Texas Arlington L 73-78 35%    
  Mar 06, 2025 151   Utah Valley W 70-68 56%    
  Mar 08, 2025 69   Grand Canyon L 70-76 31%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 8 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.8 2.1 1.3 0.5 0.1 6.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 2.6 4.3 2.9 0.9 0.2 11.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 4.1 4.9 2.2 0.4 0.0 12.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 4.9 5.2 1.9 0.2 0.0 13.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 5.4 5.3 1.3 0.1 0.0 13.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 5.1 4.9 1.2 0.0 12.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.8 4.1 0.9 0.0 11.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.2 3.9 3.0 0.6 0.0 10.3 8th
9th 0.3 1.1 2.0 2.5 1.2 0.3 0.0 7.4 9th
Total 0.3 1.1 2.6 4.9 7.0 9.6 11.2 12.4 12.5 11.2 9.6 7.5 5.1 3.0 1.4 0.5 0.1 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
14-2 87.4% 1.3    1.0 0.2
13-3 68.5% 2.1    1.4 0.7 0.1
12-4 36.0% 1.8    0.7 0.9 0.2 0.0
11-5 11.7% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-6 1.6% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 6.8% 6.8 3.9 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.1% 73.1% 70.2% 2.9% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.8%
15-1 0.5% 54.5% 50.1% 4.3% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 8.7%
14-2 1.4% 37.7% 36.1% 1.6% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9 2.5%
13-3 3.0% 30.8% 30.3% 0.4% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.1 0.6%
12-4 5.1% 22.4% 22.3% 0.0% 12.9 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 3.9 0.0%
11-5 7.5% 16.1% 16.1% 13.4 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 6.3
10-6 9.6% 9.8% 9.8% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 8.7
9-7 11.2% 6.2% 6.2% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 10.5
8-8 12.5% 3.1% 3.1% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 12.1
7-9 12.4% 1.4% 1.4% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 12.2
6-10 11.2% 0.9% 0.9% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 11.1
5-11 9.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 0.0 9.6
4-12 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 7.0
3-13 4.9% 4.9
2-14 2.6% 2.6
1-15 1.1% 1.1
0-16 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 6.5% 6.4% 0.1% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 1.9 1.5 0.9 0.3 93.5 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%