Abilene Christian
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.6#211
Expected Predictive Rating-2.9#214
Pace70.5#117
Improvement+3.3#50

Offense
Total Offense-5.2#310
First Shot-4.3#297
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#248
Layup/Dunks+1.2#140
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#34
3 Pt Jumpshots-10.4#362
Freethrows+1.6#80
Improvement-0.6#210

Defense
Total Defense+2.5#100
First Shot-0.6#198
After Offensive Rebounds+3.2#7
Layups/Dunks-1.5#237
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#74
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#54
Freethrows-3.7#357
Improvement+3.9#23
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.2% 3.4% 2.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.5 15.8
.500 or above 12.5% 15.6% 3.0%
.500 or above in Conference 46.5% 55.6% 18.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.8%
First Four1.1% 1.0% 1.5%
First Round2.8% 3.0% 2.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah Tech (Home) - 75.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 34 - 84 - 12
Quad 49 - 513 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 122   Middle Tennessee L 56-79 41%     0 - 1 -23.3 -17.8 -5.1
  Nov 16, 2024 202   Texas St. W 72-60 58%     1 - 1 +7.2 -4.4 +11.8
  Nov 20, 2024 131   @ Kennesaw St. L 78-84 26%     1 - 2 -1.8 +5.4 -7.0
  Nov 25, 2024 280   Southern Miss W 82-74 65%     2 - 2 +1.4 +12.5 -10.7
  Nov 26, 2024 188   @ Montana St. L 59-85 36%     2 - 3 -25.0 -7.6 -19.7
  Nov 30, 2024 187   @ Nebraska Omaha W 71-55 36%     3 - 3 +17.0 -0.4 +18.3
  Dec 04, 2024 146   @ New Mexico St. W 78-70 28%     4 - 3 +11.4 +14.3 -2.5
  Dec 09, 2024 24   @ Baylor L 57-88 4%     4 - 4 -13.1 -5.6 -9.4
  Dec 18, 2024 339   @ Texas A&M - Commerce L 67-68 73%     4 - 5 -10.0 -10.1 +0.2
  Dec 21, 2024 296   Texas Southern W 69-65 76%     5 - 5 -6.1 -11.6 +5.1
  Dec 28, 2024 20   @ Texas A&M L 54-92 4%     5 - 6 -19.5 -6.8 -13.1
  Dec 31, 2024 249   Stephen F. Austin L 57-62 68%     5 - 7 -12.4 -18.8 +6.7
  Jan 04, 2025 125   @ Utah Valley L 53-64 24%     5 - 8 0 - 1 -6.4 -17.2 +11.2
  Jan 11, 2025 165   @ Seattle L 64-66 32%     5 - 9 0 - 2 +0.3 -1.6 +1.7
  Jan 16, 2025 89   @ Grand Canyon L 58-88 15%     5 - 10 0 - 3 -21.6 -10.3 -10.4
  Jan 18, 2025 158   California Baptist L 54-60 49%     5 - 11 0 - 4 -8.3 -17.1 +8.4
  Jan 23, 2025 273   Tarleton St. W 67-56 73%     6 - 11 1 - 4 +2.1 -6.9 +8.8
  Jan 25, 2025 205   Texas Arlington L 76-79 OT 59%     6 - 12 1 - 5 -7.9 -2.4 -5.5
  Jan 30, 2025 158   @ California Baptist L 60-83 30%     6 - 13 1 - 6 -20.2 -7.5 -14.2
  Feb 06, 2025 290   @ Utah Tech W 86-72 57%     7 - 13 2 - 6 +9.5 +6.4 +2.6
  Feb 08, 2025 282   @ Southern Utah W 84-70 56%     8 - 13 3 - 6 +9.9 +6.6 +2.6
  Feb 13, 2025 165   Seattle W 75-59 51%     9 - 13 4 - 6 +13.2 -0.4 +13.1
  Feb 20, 2025 282   Southern Utah W 75-59 74%     10 - 13 5 - 6 +6.8 -2.8 +9.2
  Feb 22, 2025 290   Utah Tech W 74-67 76%    
  Feb 27, 2025 273   @ Tarleton St. W 64-63 53%    
  Mar 01, 2025 205   @ Texas Arlington L 71-74 38%    
  Mar 06, 2025 125   Utah Valley L 67-69 43%    
  Mar 08, 2025 89   Grand Canyon L 69-75 31%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 7 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 7.0 9.7 2.5 19.3 3rd
4th 7.3 18.5 4.2 0.1 30.2 4th
5th 0.9 15.3 4.2 0.1 20.5 5th
6th 0.0 6.7 8.5 0.2 15.4 6th
7th 3.2 10.2 0.7 14.1 7th
8th 0.5 0.0 0.5 8th
9th 9th
Total 3.7 17.8 32.0 29.8 14.0 2.7 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 2.7% 7.5% 7.5% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.5
9-7 14.0% 5.2% 5.2% 15.1 0.0 0.6 0.1 13.2
8-8 29.8% 4.3% 4.3% 15.6 0.0 0.5 0.8 28.6
7-9 32.0% 2.5% 2.5% 15.9 0.1 0.8 31.2
6-10 17.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 17.7
5-11 3.7% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.1 3.6
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.1 1.2 1.9 96.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 14.4 15.0 30.0 55.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.2%
Lose Out 2.2%