Abilene Christian
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.4#209
Expected Predictive Rating-3.4#234
Pace70.5#143
Improvement+1.8#28

Offense
Total Offense-2.7#255
First Shot+1.5#126
After Offensive Rebound-4.3#354
Layup/Dunks+1.6#118
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#256
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#155
Freethrows+0.8#149
Improvement+0.9#59

Defense
Total Defense+0.3#156
First Shot-2.1#246
After Offensive Rebounds+2.4#46
Layups/Dunks-1.0#207
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#105
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#201
Freethrows-1.8#278
Improvement+0.9#61
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.4% 8.0% 4.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.7 14.2
.500 or above 36.3% 54.3% 28.4%
.500 or above in Conference 48.9% 59.6% 44.2%
Conference Champion 5.9% 8.9% 4.6%
Last Place in Conference 10.3% 6.3% 12.1%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.4%
First Round5.2% 7.9% 4.1%
Second Round0.4% 0.8% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kennesaw St. (Away) - 30.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 21 - 5
Quad 34 - 74 - 12
Quad 49 - 513 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 165   Middle Tennessee L 56-79 54%     0 - 1 -26.4 -18.0 -8.0
  Nov 16, 2024 166   Texas St. W 72-60 54%     1 - 1 +8.6 +0.7 +8.0
  Nov 20, 2024 160   @ Kennesaw St. L 78-83 30%    
  Nov 25, 2024 229   Southern Miss W 75-74 53%    
  Nov 26, 2024 155   @ Montana St. L 70-76 30%    
  Nov 30, 2024 262   @ Nebraska Omaha L 72-73 49%    
  Dec 04, 2024 153   @ New Mexico St. L 66-72 31%    
  Dec 09, 2024 11   @ Baylor L 60-82 2%    
  Dec 18, 2024 352   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 73-65 75%    
  Dec 21, 2024 266   Texas Southern W 73-67 70%    
  Dec 28, 2024 23   @ Texas A&M L 60-79 4%    
  Dec 31, 2024 182   Stephen F. Austin W 66-64 55%    
  Jan 04, 2025 137   @ Utah Valley L 66-73 27%    
  Jan 11, 2025 136   @ Seattle L 67-74 27%    
  Jan 16, 2025 89   @ Grand Canyon L 67-78 16%    
  Jan 18, 2025 181   California Baptist W 70-68 55%    
  Jan 23, 2025 317   Tarleton St. W 75-66 78%    
  Jan 25, 2025 164   Texas Arlington W 78-77 53%    
  Jan 30, 2025 181   @ California Baptist L 67-71 35%    
  Feb 06, 2025 304   @ Utah Tech W 74-72 58%    
  Feb 08, 2025 205   @ Southern Utah L 73-76 40%    
  Feb 13, 2025 136   Seattle L 70-71 47%    
  Feb 20, 2025 205   Southern Utah W 76-73 60%    
  Feb 22, 2025 304   Utah Tech W 77-69 76%    
  Feb 27, 2025 317   @ Tarleton St. W 72-69 60%    
  Mar 01, 2025 164   @ Texas Arlington L 75-80 33%    
  Mar 06, 2025 137   Utah Valley L 69-70 47%    
  Mar 08, 2025 89   Grand Canyon L 70-75 33%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 7 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.7 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.1 5.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.4 3.8 2.1 0.5 0.1 9.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.6 5.0 2.0 0.3 0.0 11.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 4.5 5.7 1.8 0.2 13.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 5.2 6.1 1.8 0.1 0.0 14.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 5.6 5.8 1.7 0.1 15.0 6th
7th 0.3 2.1 5.5 4.8 1.3 0.1 14.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.5 3.9 2.8 0.7 0.0 10.5 8th
9th 0.2 0.9 1.7 2.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 6.0 9th
Total 0.2 0.9 2.3 4.7 7.2 10.2 12.4 13.3 13.1 11.7 9.5 6.9 4.2 2.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
14-2 94.2% 0.9    0.8 0.1
13-3 77.3% 1.7    1.1 0.6 0.0
12-4 41.9% 1.7    0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0
11-5 13.7% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1
10-6 2.0% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 5.9% 5.9 3.2 1.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.1% 35.0% 35.0% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-1 0.3% 42.2% 42.2% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-2 0.9% 39.7% 39.7% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6
13-3 2.2% 28.1% 28.1% 13.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.6
12-4 4.2% 23.5% 23.5% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 3.2
11-5 6.9% 15.7% 15.7% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.0 5.8
10-6 9.5% 9.2% 9.2% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 8.6
9-7 11.7% 5.1% 5.1% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 11.1
8-8 13.1% 2.6% 2.6% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 12.8
7-9 13.3% 1.4% 1.4% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 13.1
6-10 12.4% 0.8% 0.8% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 12.3
5-11 10.2% 0.4% 0.4% 15.9 0.0 0.0 10.1
4-12 7.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.2
3-13 4.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.7
2-14 2.3% 2.3
1-15 0.9% 0.9
0-16 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 5.4% 5.4% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.3 1.6 1.3 0.6 94.6 0.0%