Texas Southern
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.5#296
Expected Predictive Rating-9.4#314
Pace72.9#62
Improvement+0.6#158

Offense
Total Offense-7.8#347
First Shot-6.4#337
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#266
Layup/Dunks-7.0#354
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.4#8
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#278
Freethrows-1.7#280
Improvement-2.5#298

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#167
First Shot+1.6#124
After Offensive Rebounds-1.4#298
Layups/Dunks+5.2#34
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#154
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.6#333
Freethrows+0.5#152
Improvement+3.1#37
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.1% 11.1% 9.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 1.3% 1.4% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.3%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four10.9% 10.9% 9.3%
First Round5.4% 5.5% 4.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mississippi Valley (Home) - 98.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 30 - 30 - 10
Quad 412 - 812 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 42   @ Xavier L 69-78 3%     0 - 1 +5.5 +1.1 +4.8
  Nov 10, 2024 44   @ Georgia L 64-92 3%     0 - 2 -13.8 -2.5 -10.4
  Nov 12, 2024 99   @ Georgia Tech L 62-81 9%     0 - 3 -11.6 -9.4 -1.1
  Nov 17, 2024 113   @ Samford L 82-97 12%     0 - 4 -9.5 +5.2 -13.6
  Nov 24, 2024 38   @ New Mexico L 68-99 3%     0 - 5 -16.1 -2.9 -9.9
  Dec 01, 2024 202   Texas St. L 59-72 39%     0 - 6 -17.8 -13.7 -5.0
  Dec 07, 2024 160   @ Sam Houston St. L 71-87 17%     0 - 7 -13.3 +2.3 -16.4
  Dec 14, 2024 80   @ Nevada L 73-105 6%     0 - 8 -22.3 +2.4 -23.6
  Dec 17, 2024 49   @ Boise St. L 51-82 4%     0 - 9 -17.5 -18.4 +2.6
  Dec 21, 2024 211   @ Abilene Christian L 65-69 24%     0 - 10 -4.1 -10.3 +6.6
  Jan 04, 2025 224   Southern L 58-67 44%     0 - 11 0 - 1 -14.9 -14.3 -0.5
  Jan 06, 2025 327   Grambling St. W 71-66 OT 69%     1 - 11 1 - 1 -7.7 -13.9 +5.6
  Jan 13, 2025 364   @ Mississippi Valley W 82-53 95%     2 - 11 2 - 1 +3.2 -2.4 +5.6
  Jan 18, 2025 307   Alcorn St. W 66-57 63%     3 - 11 3 - 1 -2.0 -7.1 +5.7
  Jan 20, 2025 271   Jackson St. W 81-73 53%     4 - 11 4 - 1 -0.3 +3.8 -4.2
  Jan 25, 2025 359   @ Alabama A&M W 82-78 OT 67%     5 - 11 5 - 1 -8.1 -9.0 +0.3
  Jan 27, 2025 311   @ Alabama St. W 80-69 45%     6 - 11 6 - 1 +4.8 +2.8 +1.8
  Feb 01, 2025 356   Prairie View W 79-63 80%     7 - 11 7 - 1 -0.3 +3.5 -2.7
  Feb 04, 2025 363   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff L 68-69 82%     7 - 12 7 - 2 -18.2 -17.3 -0.8
  Feb 08, 2025 321   Florida A&M L 64-66 67%     7 - 13 7 - 3 -14.0 -13.0 -1.0
  Feb 10, 2025 293   Bethune-Cookman L 77-80 59%     7 - 14 7 - 4 -12.9 +2.1 -15.0
  Feb 15, 2025 327   @ Grambling St. W 67-60 50%     8 - 14 8 - 4 -0.6 -5.7 +5.2
  Feb 17, 2025 224   @ Southern L 57-66 26%     8 - 15 8 - 5 -9.8 -16.6 +7.4
  Feb 22, 2025 364   Mississippi Valley W 78-55 99%    
  Feb 24, 2025 363   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 84-69 93%    
  Mar 01, 2025 271   @ Jackson St. L 69-73 33%    
  Mar 03, 2025 307   @ Alcorn St. L 67-69 42%    
  Mar 08, 2025 356   @ Prairie View W 77-73 62%    
Projected Record 11 - 17 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 0.3 1st
2nd 0.1 6.1 8.0 14.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 5.0 20.1 0.2 25.4 3rd
4th 0.5 15.2 5.9 21.6 4th
5th 4.0 15.5 0.2 19.7 5th
6th 0.4 9.1 4.2 13.6 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 3.7 0.2 5.1 7th
8th 0.2 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 1.7 17.4 40.1 32.3 8.5 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 3.2% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 8.5% 15.6% 15.6% 16.0 0.0 1.3 7.2
12-6 32.3% 13.4% 13.4% 16.0 4.3 28.0
11-7 40.1% 9.6% 9.6% 16.0 3.9 36.2
10-8 17.4% 8.2% 8.2% 16.0 1.4 16.0
9-9 1.7% 7.1% 7.1% 16.0 0.1 1.6
8-10 0.0% 0.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 11.1% 11.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 11.1 88.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.3% 100.0% 16.0 0.8 99.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.4%