Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
240 Grambling St. 23.7%   16   0 - 3 0 - 0 15 - 13 12 - 6 -4.0      -5.4 321 +1.3 134 68.5 212 +0.4 186 0.0 1
261 Texas Southern 17.6%   0 - 4 0 - 0 13 - 15 12 - 6 -5.3      -3.8 284 -1.5 220 69.3 180 -4.8 251 0.0 1
268 Southern 15.7%   0 - 4 0 - 0 12 - 16 12 - 6 -5.5      -5.1 315 -0.4 182 69.2 182 -16.7 353 0.0 1
282 Alabama St. 15.7%   0 - 2 0 - 0 15 - 15 12 - 6 -6.2      -5.0 310 -1.2 208 68.0 224 -2.6 219 0.0 1
291 Bethune-Cookman 12.7%   1 - 4 0 - 0 13 - 17 11 - 7 -6.4      -5.6 325 -0.9 197 72.5 91 -6.4 273 0.0 1
321 Jackson St. 6.4%   0 - 5 0 - 0 11 - 19 10 - 8 -8.9      -5.1 317 -3.8 301 70.7 133 -4.5 245 0.0 1
345 Alabama A&M 2.4%   0 - 2 0 - 0 10 - 18 8 - 10 -12.4      -9.0 361 -3.4 291 74.6 65 -13.6 330 0.0 1
347 Prairie View 1.9%   0 - 4 0 - 0 8 - 22 8 - 10 -12.7      -6.0 333 -6.7 351 78.9 18 -13.9 333 0.0 1
349 Alcorn St. 2.2%   0 - 4 0 - 0 8 - 22 8 - 10 -12.9      -5.5 324 -7.3 357 63.3 328 -4.6 247 0.0 1
357 Florida A&M 1.2%   0 - 4 0 - 0 7 - 20 6 - 12 -14.0      -8.5 357 -5.5 341 69.7 169 -0.1 191 0.0 1
362 Arkansas Pine Bluff 0.5%   0 - 5 0 - 0 7 - 22 6 - 12 -16.3      -6.1 337 -10.2 364 77.4 33 -11.9 317 0.0 1
364 Mississippi Valley 0.0%   0 - 4 0 - 0 3 - 25 3 - 15 -20.7      -13.2 363 -7.6 360 64.7 310 +0.2 189 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Grambling St. 3.2 30.7 19.2 14.6 11.4 7.6 6.6 4.2 2.6 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.1
Texas Southern 3.4 25.3 19.8 15.0 12.4 9.2 6.6 4.8 3.4 2.0 1.1 0.3 0.1
Southern 3.9 19.7 16.9 14.9 12.1 10.2 9.0 6.7 4.9 2.9 1.4 1.1 0.2
Alabama St. 3.9 20.4 16.3 14.3 13.0 10.3 8.6 6.4 4.6 3.1 1.8 1.0 0.2
Bethune-Cookman 4.3 14.4 14.5 14.4 13.7 12.6 10.0 8.1 5.5 3.5 2.2 0.9 0.2
Jackson St. 5.0 8.4 11.4 12.6 13.4 13.6 12.1 10.1 7.5 5.4 3.3 1.6 0.6
Alabama A&M 7.3 2.6 3.7 5.8 6.5 8.5 11.0 12.1 12.7 12.5 11.1 8.8 4.7
Prairie View 7.4 1.8 3.4 4.5 6.9 8.7 10.3 12.5 13.8 13.8 12.1 8.4 3.8
Alcorn St. 7.1 1.9 3.9 5.5 7.5 9.5 11.5 13.1 13.1 12.6 10.4 7.5 3.6
Florida A&M 8.5 0.7 1.5 2.6 4.0 4.8 7.1 9.7 12.7 15.1 17.5 16.2 8.2
Arkansas Pine Bluff 9.1 0.4 0.7 1.5 2.5 3.7 5.4 8.6 11.5 14.1 18.1 20.5 13.1
Mississippi Valley 10.8 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.2 2.7 4.3 7.5 13.0 23.6 46.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Grambling St. 12 - 6 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.2 4.0 6.0 8.8 11.0 13.6 14.1 13.3 10.7 8.3 4.1 1.4
Texas Southern 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.8 4.9 6.7 9.6 12.9 13.4 14.3 13.3 9.6 6.4 2.9 0.9
Southern 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.3 4.0 6.7 9.1 10.6 12.5 13.7 13.1 10.5 7.8 4.9 2.1 0.5
Alabama St. 12 - 6 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.4 4.1 6.3 8.9 10.8 12.8 13.3 12.6 10.2 8.0 5.1 2.6 0.5
Bethune-Cookman 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 3.2 5.0 7.5 10.5 13.3 14.5 12.9 11.3 9.4 5.6 3.2 1.1 0.2
Jackson St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 2.6 4.7 6.9 9.9 13.1 13.6 14.2 11.7 9.6 6.3 3.6 1.5 0.6 0.1
Alabama A&M 8 - 10 0.1 0.7 2.1 4.1 6.8 9.4 11.3 12.4 12.5 12.1 9.6 7.2 5.4 3.1 1.8 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Prairie View 8 - 10 0.1 0.6 1.5 4.0 6.7 9.9 12.6 14.0 12.7 12.2 9.4 7.3 4.3 2.6 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Alcorn St. 8 - 10 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.2 5.8 8.5 11.1 13.5 13.5 12.6 10.7 7.9 5.2 3.3 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.1
Florida A&M 6 - 12 0.5 1.7 4.9 7.9 11.6 13.6 14.2 13.2 10.7 8.5 5.8 3.6 2.0 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0
Arkansas Pine Bluff 6 - 12 0.6 2.9 6.3 11.1 14.0 14.4 14.2 12.4 9.5 6.1 4.1 2.3 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0
Mississippi Valley 3 - 15 5.8 14.1 18.3 17.2 15.7 11.6 7.4 4.8 2.8 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Grambling St. 30.7% 20.9 7.4 2.1 0.2 0.1
Texas Southern 25.3% 16.1 6.9 1.9 0.4 0.0
Southern 19.7% 12.3 5.5 1.6 0.3 0.0
Alabama St. 20.4% 12.9 5.7 1.5 0.3 0.0
Bethune-Cookman 14.4% 8.4 4.1 1.5 0.4 0.0
Jackson St. 8.4% 4.4 2.7 1.1 0.2 0.0
Alabama A&M 2.6% 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Prairie View 1.8% 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Alcorn St. 1.9% 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Florida A&M 0.7% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
Arkansas Pine Bluff 0.4% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Mississippi Valley


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Grambling St. 23.7% 23.7% 0.0% 16   0.1 1.0 2.7 5.7 14.1 76.4 0.0%
Texas Southern 17.6% 17.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.7 13.7 82.4 0.0%
Southern 15.7% 15.7% 0.0% 0.1 0.4 1.5 13.8 84.3 0.0%
Alabama St. 15.7% 15.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.7 11.6 84.3 0.0%
Bethune-Cookman 12.7% 12.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 11.1 87.3 0.0%
Jackson St. 6.4% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 6.1 93.6 0.0%
Alabama A&M 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 2.4 97.6 0.0%
Prairie View 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0 1.8 98.1 0.0%
Alcorn St. 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 2.2 97.8 0.0%
Florida A&M 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0 1.2 98.8 0.0%
Arkansas Pine Bluff 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5 99.5 0.0%
Mississippi Valley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Grambling St. 23.7% 9.2% 19.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas Southern 17.6% 10.3% 12.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern 15.7% 11.3% 10.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alabama St. 15.7% 8.4% 11.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bethune-Cookman 12.7% 9.1% 8.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jackson St. 6.4% 5.5% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alabama A&M 2.4% 2.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Prairie View 1.9% 1.8% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alcorn St. 2.2% 2.2% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida A&M 1.2% 1.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas Pine Bluff 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mississippi Valley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 69.9% 0.7 30.1 69.9
2nd Round 1.3% 0.0 98.7 1.3
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0