Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
218 Southern 32.9%   16   7 - 8 5 - 0 17 - 11 15 - 3 -3.3      -5.3 312 +2.0 114 70.7 122 -0.8 181 +6.4 1
264 Bethune-Cookman 17.2%   7 - 11 4 - 1 15 - 16 12 - 6 -5.8      -7.7 346 +1.9 121 72.4 80 -2.7 217 -1.7 3
282 Jackson St. 13.8%   4 - 14 4 - 1 13 - 18 13 - 5 -6.9      -6.1 328 -0.8 201 71.3 104 -6.2 265 -1.5 2
290 Texas Southern 12.8%   4 - 11 4 - 1 12 - 16 12 - 6 -7.3      -6.6 337 -0.7 197 73.8 61 -8.8 307 -4.4 4
300 Alabama St. 10.8%   6 - 11 3 - 2 14 - 16 11 - 7 -7.8      -2.6 237 -5.2 327 69.3 162 -7.4 285 -10.4 6
326 Grambling St. 4.0%   1 - 14 1 - 4 8 - 20 8 - 10 -10.0      -6.5 335 -3.5 279 64.2 292 -19.3 359 -16.6 9
328 Alcorn St. 4.5%   3 - 14 3 - 2 10 - 20 10 - 8 -10.4      -6.3 332 -4.1 294 65.0 267 -9.9 318 -7.7 5
337 Prairie View 2.8%   3 - 15 3 - 3 8 - 22 8 - 10 -11.5      -5.0 307 -6.5 344 76.2 26 -14.9 348 -13.3 7
357 Florida A&M 0.7%   3 - 11 2 - 3 7 - 20 6 - 12 -14.0      -8.2 353 -5.7 337 69.7 153 -12.5 337 -16.4 8
358 Alabama A&M 0.5%   3 - 12 2 - 3 8 - 20 7 - 11 -14.6      -9.8 359 -4.9 314 75.3 32 -16.7 354 -17.3 10
363 Arkansas Pine Bluff 0.0%   1 - 15 0 - 5 5 - 24 4 - 14 -18.1      -7.0 342 -11.1 363 79.5 9 -21.0 363 -25.6 12
364 Mississippi Valley 0.0%   0 - 17 0 - 6 1 - 28 1 - 17 -26.2      -14.9 364 -11.3 364 63.6 308 -23.1 364 -25.6 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Southern 1.5 70.7 16.9 7.1 3.1 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.1
Bethune-Cookman 3.3 15.5 24.9 20.0 15.4 11.1 7.4 3.5 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
Jackson St. 2.8 20.5 30.6 21.8 13.8 8.0 3.3 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0
Texas Southern 3.6 11.2 20.5 22.0 18.7 13.2 7.8 4.0 1.8 0.6 0.2
Alabama St. 4.4 5.4 11.4 16.6 19.9 18.7 13.7 7.9 4.0 2.0 0.5 0.1
Grambling St. 7.1 0.2 1.1 3.0 5.8 10.1 14.8 20.4 19.8 14.7 7.6 2.5 0.1
Alcorn St. 5.2 1.9 6.4 11.3 16.0 20.5 21.6 12.4 6.2 2.9 0.6 0.2
Prairie View 6.9 0.2 1.2 2.9 5.6 9.9 16.5 23.4 22.2 12.7 4.5 1.0 0.0
Florida A&M 8.8 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.2 2.9 5.2 9.6 15.3 24.6 29.6 10.7 0.1
Alabama A&M 8.5 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 3.1 6.7 13.2 18.7 25.8 22.3 7.8 0.2
Arkansas Pine Bluff 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.8 10.3 24.2 52.5 6.7
Mississippi Valley 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.9 13.9 84.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Southern 15 - 3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.4 6.2 11.3 18.4 23.0 20.9 12.9 3.9
Bethune-Cookman 12 - 6 0.1 0.2 0.7 2.2 5.2 9.8 15.9 18.8 19.2 15.3 8.7 3.3 0.6
Jackson St. 13 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.3 6.1 12.6 18.7 22.1 20.0 11.7 4.5 0.9
Texas Southern 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.6 6.3 11.8 17.4 20.6 18.7 12.7 6.5 2.1 0.3
Alabama St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.6 6.4 11.9 17.0 20.7 18.5 12.8 6.6 2.1 0.4
Grambling St. 8 - 10 0.2 0.8 2.5 5.8 11.1 16.2 18.9 18.4 13.5 8.3 3.4 0.8 0.1
Alcorn St. 10 - 8 0.1 0.3 1.4 4.7 9.8 17.2 21.9 19.7 14.6 7.2 2.5 0.6 0.1
Prairie View 8 - 10 0.0 0.6 3.2 9.4 17.5 22.1 20.7 14.7 7.7 3.1 0.8 0.2 0.0
Florida A&M 6 - 12 1.1 5.7 11.9 18.3 20.4 17.6 12.2 7.3 3.4 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0
Alabama A&M 7 - 11 0.5 2.9 8.4 15.5 21.1 19.2 15.2 9.7 4.8 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Arkansas Pine Bluff 4 - 14 0.6 4.3 13.0 21.1 22.9 18.9 10.9 5.4 2.0 0.8 0.2
Mississippi Valley 1 - 17 30.2 35.5 22.3 8.7 2.7 0.5 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Southern 70.7% 53.9 13.4 2.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
Bethune-Cookman 15.5% 7.1 6.1 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
Jackson St. 20.5% 10.5 7.2 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
Texas Southern 11.2% 5.0 4.2 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
Alabama St. 5.4% 2.1 2.0 0.9 0.4 0.1
Grambling St. 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Alcorn St. 1.9% 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Prairie View 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Florida A&M 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Alabama A&M 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Arkansas Pine Bluff
Mississippi Valley


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Southern 32.9% 32.9% 0.0% 16   0.2 0.9 2.9 10.3 18.6 67.1 0.0%
Bethune-Cookman 17.2% 17.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.7 15.3 82.8 0.0%
Jackson St. 13.8% 13.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 13.4 86.2 0.0%
Texas Southern 12.8% 12.8% 0.0% 0.1 0.4 12.4 87.2 0.0%
Alabama St. 10.8% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 10.5 89.2 0.0%
Grambling St. 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0 3.9 96.0 0.0%
Alcorn St. 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0 4.5 95.5 0.0%
Prairie View 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 2.8 97.2 0.0%
Florida A&M 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.7 99.3 0.0%
Alabama A&M 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5 99.5 0.0%
Arkansas Pine Bluff 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Mississippi Valley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Southern 32.9% 9.6% 28.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bethune-Cookman 17.2% 11.2% 11.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jackson St. 13.8% 12.4% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas Southern 12.8% 11.4% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alabama St. 10.8% 9.2% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Grambling St. 4.0% 3.9% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alcorn St. 4.5% 4.5% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Prairie View 2.8% 2.8% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida A&M 0.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alabama A&M 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas Pine Bluff 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mississippi Valley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 66.1% 0.7 33.9 66.1
2nd Round 0.7% 0.0 99.3 0.7
Sweet Sixteen 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0