Alabama St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.2#282
Expected Predictive Rating-2.6#219
Pace68.0#224
Improvement+0.0#172

Offense
Total Offense-5.0#310
First Shot-3.4#273
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#260
Layup/Dunks-3.2#285
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#138
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#258
Freethrows+1.6#95
Improvement-0.7#283

Defense
Total Defense-1.2#208
First Shot+1.6#128
After Offensive Rebounds-2.8#326
Layups/Dunks+4.3#60
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#144
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#212
Freethrows-2.8#320
Improvement+0.7#89
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.7% 19.3% 12.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.5 15.7
.500 or above 51.7% 65.5% 39.7%
.500 or above in Conference 85.0% 89.6% 80.9%
Conference Champion 20.4% 25.3% 16.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.2% 1.1%
First Four8.4% 8.8% 8.1%
First Round11.6% 15.0% 8.6%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Nebraska Omaha (Neutral) - 46.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 31 - 8
Quad 415 - 816 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 91   @ UNLV L 79-93 9%     0 - 1 -5.1 +9.5 -14.6
  Nov 10, 2024 48   @ LSU L 61-74 5%     0 - 2 -0.3 -7.6 +7.7
  Nov 22, 2024 260   Nebraska Omaha L 70-71 46%    
  Nov 23, 2024 292   Lamar W 72-71 53%    
  Nov 24, 2024 139   @ Akron L 64-75 17%    
  Nov 27, 2024 19   @ Cincinnati L 58-81 2%    
  Dec 03, 2024 67   @ SMU L 66-83 5%    
  Dec 05, 2024 255   @ Southern Miss L 74-78 35%    
  Dec 11, 2024 295   Tennessee Martin W 76-72 65%    
  Dec 19, 2024 192   Norfolk St. L 66-71 34%    
  Dec 20, 2024 346   Delaware St. W 71-65 71%    
  Dec 30, 2024 61   @ Missouri L 61-79 5%    
  Jan 04, 2025 364   Mississippi Valley W 74-56 94%    
  Jan 06, 2025 362   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 82-69 88%    
  Jan 11, 2025 321   @ Jackson St. L 69-70 49%    
  Jan 13, 2025 349   @ Alcorn St. W 69-65 62%    
  Jan 18, 2025 345   @ Alabama A&M W 71-68 61%    
  Jan 25, 2025 347   Prairie View W 80-70 80%    
  Jan 27, 2025 261   Texas Southern W 70-68 58%    
  Feb 01, 2025 291   @ Bethune-Cookman L 67-70 40%    
  Feb 03, 2025 357   @ Florida A&M W 71-66 65%    
  Feb 08, 2025 240   Grambling St. W 67-66 52%    
  Feb 10, 2025 268   Southern W 68-66 58%    
  Feb 15, 2025 362   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff W 79-72 73%    
  Feb 17, 2025 364   @ Mississippi Valley W 71-59 83%    
  Feb 22, 2025 357   Florida A&M W 74-63 82%    
  Feb 24, 2025 291   Bethune-Cookman W 70-67 61%    
  Mar 01, 2025 345   Alabama A&M W 74-65 79%    
  Mar 06, 2025 268   @ Southern L 65-69 38%    
  Mar 08, 2025 240   @ Grambling St. L 64-69 33%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.4 6.2 4.8 2.6 0.5 20.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.6 6.3 4.9 1.8 0.3 0.0 16.3 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.9 6.0 4.0 1.0 0.1 14.3 3rd
4th 0.2 2.5 5.9 3.8 0.7 13.0 4th
5th 0.2 1.7 4.5 3.2 0.7 10.3 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 4.0 3.0 0.4 8.6 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 2.7 2.5 0.4 0.0 6.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.7 1.8 0.6 4.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.3 0.4 0.0 3.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.0 11th
12th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 12th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.4 4.1 6.3 8.9 10.8 12.8 13.3 12.6 10.2 8.0 5.1 2.6 0.5 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 99.5% 2.6    2.4 0.2
16-2 94.0% 4.8    4.1 0.7
15-3 76.8% 6.2    4.0 2.0 0.2
14-4 42.8% 4.4    1.7 2.0 0.7 0.1
13-5 13.3% 1.7    0.2 0.9 0.5 0.1
12-6 2.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 20.4% 20.4 12.9 5.7 1.5 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 46.4% 46.4% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
17-1 2.6% 52.6% 52.6% 14.7 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 1.2
16-2 5.1% 41.2% 41.2% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.8 3.0
15-3 8.0% 32.6% 32.6% 15.5 0.2 0.8 1.6 5.4
14-4 10.2% 26.0% 26.0% 15.9 0.0 0.2 2.4 7.5
13-5 12.6% 20.0% 20.0% 15.9 0.0 0.2 2.3 10.1
12-6 13.3% 11.6% 11.6% 16.0 0.0 1.5 11.8
11-7 12.8% 8.6% 8.6% 16.0 1.1 11.7
10-8 10.8% 7.3% 7.3% 16.0 0.8 10.0
9-9 8.9% 6.3% 6.3% 16.0 0.6 8.4
8-10 6.3% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.2 6.1
7-11 4.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 4.0
6-12 2.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.4
5-13 1.4% 1.4
4-14 0.6% 0.6
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 15.7% 15.7% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.7 11.6 84.3 0.0%