IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Alabama St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating	-7.0	#293
Expected Predictive Rating	-6.4	#275

Pace	70.8	#125
Improvement	-2.8	#315

Offense
Total Offense	-2.2	#235

First Shot	+1.4	#132
After Offensive Rebound	-3.7	#343

Layup/Dunks	-5.2	#336
2 Pt Jumpshots	+0.9	#129
3 Pt Jumpshots	+5.4	#32
Freethrows	+0.3	#158

Improvement	-1.8	#300

Defense
Total Defense	-4.7	#324

First Shot	-3.0	#278
After Offensive Rebounds	-1.8	#311

Layups/Dunks	+2.3	#89
2 Pt Jumpshots	+0.4	#162
3 Pt Jumpshots	-2.4	#280
Freethrows	-3.3	#343

Improvement	-1.0	#258

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	13.2%	18.5%	13.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.9	15.7	15.9

.500 or above	46.7%	73.0%	45.8%
.500 or above in Conference	88.4%	92.7%	88.2%
Conference Champion	18.2%	26.8%	17.9%
Last Place in Conference	0.2%	0.0%	0.2%

First Four	10.5%	10.5%	10.5%
First Round	7.8%	13.2%	7.6%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Missouri (Away) - 3.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 1b	0 - 2	0 - 4
Quad 2	0 - 1	0 - 5
Quad 3	1 - 3	1 - 8
Quad 4	15 - 9	15 - 16

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 04, 2024	106	@ UNLV	L	79-93	10%	0 - 1			-6.6	+9.9	-16.5
Nov 10, 2024	56	@ LSU	L	61-74	4%	0 - 2			-0.4	-6.7	+6.8
Nov 22, 2024	294	Nebraska Omaha	W	85-67	51%	1 - 2			+10.8	+5.5	+4.8
Nov 23, 2024	194	Lamar	W	77-75	31%	2 - 2			+0.3	+7.3	-7.0
Nov 24, 2024	147	@ Akron	L	78-97	17%	2 - 3			-15.7	+3.3	-18.0
Nov 27, 2024	27	@ Cincinnati	L	59-77	2%	2 - 4			-1.3	-3.7	+2.5
Dec 03, 2024	40	@ SMU	L	72-101	3%	2 - 5			-14.5	+1.6	-15.0
Dec 05, 2024	283	@ Southern Miss	L	64-81	37%	2 - 6			-20.5	-12.8	-6.8
Dec 11, 2024	287	Tennessee Martin	W	103-93 OT	61%	3 - 6			+0.3	+14.7	-15.6
Dec 19, 2024	184	Norfolk St.	L	54-71	29%	3 - 7			-18.2	-16.9	-2.4
Dec 20, 2024	327	Delaware St.	L	80-83	59%	3 - 8			-12.4	+4.7	-17.1
Dec 30, 2024	55	@ Missouri	L	67-87	3%
Jan 04, 2025	364	Mississippi Valley	W	78-59	96%
Jan 06, 2025	363	Arkansas Pine Bluff	W	89-76	90%
Jan 11, 2025	310	@ Jackson St.	L	71-73	44%
Jan 13, 2025	338	@ Alcorn St.	W	74-73	55%
Jan 18, 2025	360	@ Alabama A&M	W	80-76	66%
Jan 25, 2025	337	Prairie View	W	87-80	74%
Jan 27, 2025	301	Texas Southern	W	77-73	62%
Feb 01, 2025	262	@ Bethune-Cookman	L	71-76	34%
Feb 03, 2025	357	@ Florida A&M	W	75-71	63%
Feb 08, 2025	307	Grambling St.	W	74-70	65%
Feb 10, 2025	233	Southern	L	73-74	49%
Feb 15, 2025	363	@ Arkansas Pine Bluff	W	86-79	75%
Feb 17, 2025	364	@ Mississippi Valley	W	75-62	87%
Feb 22, 2025	357	Florida A&M	W	78-68	81%
Feb 24, 2025	262	Bethune-Cookman	W	74-73	55%
Mar 01, 2025	360	Alabama A&M	W	83-73	82%
Mar 06, 2025	233	@ Southern	L	70-76	29%
Mar 08, 2025	307	@ Grambling St.	L	71-73	43%
Projected Record						15 - 15	11 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.5	2.8	5.4	5.4	3.0	0.9	0.2		18.2	1st
2nd											0.0	0.5	4.0	7.2	4.6	1.2	0.1				17.6	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.4	3.8	7.2	4.0	0.6	0.0					16.0	3rd
4th										0.2	2.7	6.6	3.8	0.4	0.0						13.6	4th
5th									0.1	1.7	5.4	3.4	0.4	0.0							11.1	5th
6th								0.0	0.8	3.9	3.6	0.5	0.0								8.8	6th
7th							0.0	0.4	2.4	2.9	0.6	0.0									6.3	7th
8th						0.0	0.2	1.4	2.0	0.6	0.0										4.2	8th
9th					0.0	0.1	0.7	1.1	0.5	0.0											2.5	9th
10th				0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.2	0.0												1.2	10th
11th				0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0													0.5	11th
12th			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0															0.1	12th

Total			0.0	0.1	0.2	0.6	1.6	3.2	5.9	9.3	12.6	14.8	15.9	14.4	10.6	6.6	3.0	0.9	0.2			Total

Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.2		0.2
17-1	100.0%	0.9		0.9	0.0
16-2	97.5%	3.0		2.6	0.3	0.0
15-3	81.9%	5.4		3.7	1.6	0.1
14-4	51.0%	5.4		2.3	2.4	0.7	0.0
13-5	19.6%	2.8		0.6	1.1	0.8	0.2	0.0
12-6	2.8%	0.5		0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1
11-7	0.1%	0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	18.2%	18.2		10.4	5.6	1.8	0.3	0.1

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.2%		51.0%	51.0%		14.2													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1
17-1	0.9%		34.2%	34.2%		15.2															0.0	0.2	0.1	0.6
16-2	3.0%		28.2%	28.2%		15.6															0.0	0.3	0.5	2.2
15-3	6.6%		28.2%	28.2%		15.9															0.0	0.2	1.7	4.7
14-4	10.6%		21.2%	21.2%		16.0																0.1	2.2	8.4
13-5	14.4%		16.8%	16.8%		16.0																0.0	2.4	12.0
12-6	15.9%		13.1%	13.1%		16.0																0.0	2.1	13.8
11-7	14.8%		9.9%	9.9%		16.0																0.0	1.5	13.4
10-8	12.6%		8.4%	8.4%		16.0																	1.1	11.5
9-9	9.3%		6.4%	6.4%		16.0																	0.6	8.7
8-10	5.9%		2.5%	2.5%		16.0																	0.1	5.7
7-11	3.2%		1.0%	1.0%		16.0																	0.0	3.2
6-12	1.6%																							1.6
5-13	0.6%																							0.6
4-14	0.2%																							0.2
3-15	0.1%																							0.1
2-16	0.0%																							0.0
1-17
0-18

Total	100%		13.2%	13.2%	0.0%	15.9													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.7	12.3	86.8		0.0%