Preseason Rankings
Cincinnati
Big 12
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.9#27
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.1#187
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.8#42
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.1#22
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
#1 Seed 3.3% 3.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 7.8% 7.8% 2.5%
Top 4 Seed 19.3% 19.4% 3.3%
Top 6 Seed 31.6% 31.7% 9.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 59.2% 59.3% 29.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 57.6% 57.7% 28.3%
Average Seed 6.2 6.2 7.5
.500 or above 78.5% 78.6% 44.3%
.500 or above in Conference 57.6% 57.6% 35.9%
Conference Champion 4.8% 4.8% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 4.4% 4.4% 14.0%
First Four4.8% 4.8% 4.4%
First Round56.8% 56.9% 26.4%
Second Round38.5% 38.5% 13.0%
Sweet Sixteen18.8% 18.8% 5.3%
Elite Eight8.8% 8.9% 3.2%
Final Four4.1% 4.1% 2.5%
Championship Game1.8% 1.8% 0.7%
National Champion0.9% 0.9% 0.7%

Next Game: Arkansas Pine Bluff (Home) - 99.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 9
Quad 25 - 310 - 12
Quad 34 - 114 - 13
Quad 45 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 358   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 91-62 99.7%   
  Nov 08, 2024 224   Morehead St. W 75-57 95%    
  Nov 15, 2024 215   Nicholls St. W 79-61 95%    
  Nov 19, 2024 174   @ Northern Kentucky W 75-66 80%    
  Nov 23, 2024 80   @ Georgia Tech W 73-71 55%    
  Nov 27, 2024 293   Alabama St. W 79-57 97%    
  Dec 03, 2024 37   @ Villanova L 65-67 42%    
  Dec 08, 2024 249   Howard W 82-63 95%    
  Dec 14, 2024 28   Xavier W 77-74 61%    
  Dec 20, 2024 59   Dayton W 69-66 59%    
  Dec 22, 2024 273   Grambling St. W 77-57 96%    
  Dec 30, 2024 39   @ Kansas St. L 69-71 43%    
  Jan 04, 2025 11   Arizona L 76-77 46%    
  Jan 07, 2025 9   @ Baylor L 67-74 27%    
  Jan 11, 2025 2   Kansas L 71-75 37%    
  Jan 15, 2025 79   @ Colorado W 71-70 55%    
  Jan 18, 2025 73   Arizona St. W 75-68 73%    
  Jan 21, 2025 21   Texas Tech W 71-69 57%    
  Jan 25, 2025 32   @ BYU L 72-75 41%    
  Jan 28, 2025 77   @ Utah W 73-72 55%    
  Feb 02, 2025 65   West Virginia W 75-69 70%    
  Feb 05, 2025 71   @ Central Florida W 72-71 53%    
  Feb 08, 2025 32   BYU W 75-72 60%    
  Feb 11, 2025 77   Utah W 76-69 73%    
  Feb 15, 2025 8   @ Iowa St. L 65-72 28%    
  Feb 19, 2025 65   @ West Virginia W 73-72 51%    
  Feb 22, 2025 53   TCU W 76-71 67%    
  Feb 25, 2025 9   Baylor L 70-71 46%    
  Mar 01, 2025 3   @ Houston L 60-70 21%    
  Mar 05, 2025 39   Kansas St. W 72-68 62%    
  Mar 08, 2025 87   @ Oklahoma St. W 71-69 56%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.4 1.0 0.4 0.1 4.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.2 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 6.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.7 1.8 0.5 0.0 6.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.3 2.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 7.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.4 3.6 2.4 0.5 0.0 8.0 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 3.5 3.0 0.7 0.0 8.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.8 3.7 1.0 0.1 0.0 8.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.2 3.8 1.5 0.1 7.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.5 3.7 2.1 0.2 0.0 7.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 3.2 2.6 0.5 0.0 7.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 2.5 2.8 0.8 0.0 6.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.8 1.1 0.1 5.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 5.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.9 1.3 0.3 0.0 4.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.3 15th
16th 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.5 16th
Total 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.6 2.8 4.3 5.8 7.7 9.0 9.9 10.2 10.5 9.7 8.4 6.6 5.0 3.5 2.1 1.1 0.4 0.1 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 98.1% 0.4    0.3 0.0
18-2 89.0% 1.0    0.8 0.2 0.0
17-3 64.7% 1.4    0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
16-4 35.8% 1.2    0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0
15-5 11.6% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 1.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.8% 4.8 2.6 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 38.1% 61.9% 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.4% 100.0% 34.4% 65.6% 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.1% 100.0% 29.8% 70.2% 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.1% 100.0% 20.2% 79.8% 1.8 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 3.5% 100.0% 16.0% 84.0% 2.4 0.8 1.3 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 5.0% 100.0% 12.5% 87.5% 3.3 0.4 1.0 1.6 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 6.6% 99.8% 8.6% 91.2% 4.3 0.2 0.6 1.4 1.6 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
13-7 8.4% 99.1% 4.9% 94.2% 5.4 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.6 1.9 1.7 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.1%
12-8 9.7% 96.1% 3.8% 92.2% 6.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.4 1.9 1.8 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.4 95.9%
11-9 10.5% 87.7% 1.3% 86.4% 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.6 1.9 1.6 1.2 0.7 0.1 1.3 87.5%
10-10 10.2% 72.2% 1.0% 71.2% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.3 0.2 0.0 2.8 71.9%
9-11 9.9% 43.1% 0.5% 42.6% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.4 0.4 0.0 5.7 42.8%
8-12 9.0% 17.3% 0.2% 17.1% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.3 7.5 17.2%
7-13 7.7% 3.7% 0.1% 3.6% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 7.4 3.6%
6-14 5.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.5% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.7 0.5%
5-15 4.3% 0.1% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 0.0 4.3 0.1%
4-16 2.8% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 2.8
3-17 1.6% 1.6
2-18 0.8% 0.8
1-19 0.4% 0.4
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 59.2% 3.8% 55.4% 6.2 3.3 4.4 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.3 6.2 5.9 5.3 4.7 4.5 1.0 0.0 0.0 40.8 57.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.1 87.2 12.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.2 75.6 24.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0