Cincinnati
Big 12
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.3#46
Expected Predictive Rating+10.4#54
Pace64.4#286
Improvement-2.6#295

Offense
Total Offense+3.6#84
First Shot+0.8#142
After Offensive Rebound+2.7#34
Layup/Dunks+7.8#6
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#330
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#173
Freethrows-4.5#361
Improvement+0.0#185

Defense
Total Defense+7.7#20
First Shot+7.5#17
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#164
Layups/Dunks+1.5#114
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#205
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.3#12
Freethrows+0.8#124
Improvement-2.6#310
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.3% 25.1% 8.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 20.0% 24.8% 8.0%
Average Seed 10.6 10.6 10.9
.500 or above 97.7% 100.0% 92.0%
.500 or above in Conference 1.7% 2.3% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four13.5% 16.5% 6.0%
First Round14.1% 17.6% 5.1%
Second Round5.3% 6.6% 2.0%
Sweet Sixteen1.4% 1.8% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: TCU (Home) - 71.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 70 - 7
Quad 1b1 - 52 - 11
Quad 28 - 310 - 14
Quad 32 - 012 - 14
Quad 46 - 018 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 363   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 109-54 99%     1 - 0 +32.7 +17.7 +11.4
  Nov 08, 2024 329   Morehead St. W 83-56 98%     2 - 0 +14.1 +14.7 +2.7
  Nov 15, 2024 192   Nicholls St. W 86-49 92%     3 - 0 +32.6 +16.9 +18.3
  Nov 19, 2024 241   @ Northern Kentucky W 76-60 89%     4 - 0 +14.1 +9.5 +5.9
  Nov 23, 2024 99   @ Georgia Tech W 81-58 65%     5 - 0 +30.4 +13.7 +16.9
  Nov 27, 2024 311   Alabama St. W 77-59 97%     6 - 0 +6.7 -1.8 +8.5
  Dec 03, 2024 43   @ Villanova L 60-68 38%     6 - 1 +6.3 +3.7 +1.0
  Dec 08, 2024 305   Howard W 84-67 97%     7 - 1 +6.1 +3.1 +3.2
  Dec 14, 2024 42   Xavier W 68-65 57%     8 - 1 +12.4 +0.5 +12.0
  Dec 20, 2024 83   Dayton W 66-59 67%     9 - 1 +13.8 +0.6 +13.9
  Dec 22, 2024 327   Grambling St. W 84-49 98%     10 - 1 +22.3 +17.3 +9.0
  Dec 30, 2024 56   @ Kansas St. L 67-70 43%     10 - 2 0 - 1 +10.1 +2.8 +7.2
  Jan 04, 2025 8   Arizona L 67-72 32%     10 - 3 0 - 2 +11.2 +3.7 +7.4
  Jan 07, 2025 24   @ Baylor L 48-68 26%     10 - 4 0 - 3 -2.1 -10.3 +4.9
  Jan 11, 2025 19   Kansas L 40-54 41%     10 - 5 0 - 4 -0.4 -18.0 +15.6
  Jan 15, 2025 91   @ Colorado W 68-62 62%     11 - 5 1 - 4 +14.1 +0.5 +13.6
  Jan 18, 2025 65   Arizona St. W 67-60 70%     12 - 5 2 - 4 +12.8 +2.2 +11.0
  Jan 21, 2025 10   Texas Tech L 71-81 33%     12 - 6 2 - 5 +5.9 +8.1 -2.8
  Jan 25, 2025 26   @ BYU L 52-80 28%     12 - 7 2 - 6 -10.6 -6.1 -9.2
  Jan 28, 2025 68   @ Utah L 66-69 52%     12 - 8 2 - 7 +7.8 +1.5 +6.2
  Feb 02, 2025 41   West Virginia L 50-63 57%     12 - 9 2 - 8 -3.5 -8.6 +3.4
  Feb 05, 2025 81   @ Central Florida W 93-83 57%     13 - 9 3 - 8 +19.6 +16.1 +2.7
  Feb 08, 2025 26   BYU W 84-66 46%     14 - 9 4 - 8 +30.3 +23.0 +9.0
  Feb 11, 2025 68   Utah W 85-75 70%     15 - 9 5 - 8 +15.7 +18.7 -2.6
  Feb 15, 2025 9   @ Iowa St. L 70-81 18%     15 - 10 5 - 9 +10.2 +9.9 +0.2
  Feb 19, 2025 41   @ West Virginia L 59-62 37%     15 - 11 5 - 10 +11.6 +6.1 +5.0
  Feb 22, 2025 64   TCU W 67-62 72%    
  Feb 25, 2025 24   Baylor L 68-70 46%    
  Mar 01, 2025 3   @ Houston L 55-69 10%    
  Mar 05, 2025 56   Kansas St. W 69-66 64%    
  Mar 08, 2025 92   @ Oklahoma St. W 72-69 60%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.2 6th
7th 0.2 0.6 0.8 7th
8th 1.8 0.7 2.4 8th
9th 0.5 5.6 0.2 6.3 9th
10th 0.1 4.6 6.1 0.0 10.7 10th
11th 3.0 16.3 2.4 21.6 11th
12th 3.6 23.2 11.7 0.2 38.7 12th
13th 0.6 8.5 5.9 0.2 15.1 13th
14th 1.7 2.1 0.1 4.0 14th
15th 0.3 0.1 0.3 15th
16th 16th
Total 2.6 14.2 32.2 33.2 16.2 1.7 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 1.7% 86.7% 1.2% 85.5% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.2 86.6%
9-11 16.2% 54.8% 0.6% 54.2% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 2.5 5.1 0.3 7.3 54.5%
8-12 33.2% 23.8% 0.3% 23.5% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 5.6 1.1 25.3 23.6%
7-13 32.2% 6.1% 0.2% 5.9% 11.1 0.0 0.1 1.3 0.5 30.2 5.9%
6-14 14.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.6% 11.3 0.1 0.0 14.1 0.6%
5-15 2.6% 2.6
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 20.3% 0.3% 20.0% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 4.1 12.2 1.9 79.7 20.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.7%