Cincinnati
Big 12
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.9#39
Expected Predictive Rating+11.4#48
Pace65.0#267
Improvement-3.2#325

Offense
Total Offense+2.0#123
First Shot-0.4#190
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#44
Layup/Dunks+7.1#10
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#329
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#185
Freethrows-4.5#362
Improvement-5.0#360

Defense
Total Defense+9.9#7
First Shot+9.3#6
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#125
Layups/Dunks+2.3#86
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#178
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.6#10
Freethrows+1.1#105
Improvement+1.8#87
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.9% 1.6% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 6.8% 11.6% 3.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 54.7% 69.2% 43.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 54.2% 68.8% 42.6%
Average Seed 8.8 8.5 9.3
.500 or above 96.7% 98.9% 94.8%
.500 or above in Conference 42.8% 58.7% 30.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.2% 1.1%
First Four12.3% 10.9% 13.4%
First Round48.8% 64.0% 36.7%
Second Round25.7% 34.9% 18.3%
Sweet Sixteen7.3% 10.5% 4.6%
Elite Eight2.7% 3.8% 1.8%
Final Four0.9% 1.1% 0.7%
Championship Game0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Next Game: Texas Tech (Home) - 44.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 10
Quad 27 - 310 - 12
Quad 33 - 113 - 13
Quad 46 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 363   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 109-54 99%     1 - 0 +33.8 +15.9 +14.3
  Nov 08, 2024 259   Morehead St. W 83-56 96%     2 - 0 +18.8 +18.3 +3.8
  Nov 15, 2024 205   Nicholls St. W 86-49 93%     3 - 0 +32.1 +16.3 +18.3
  Nov 19, 2024 235   @ Northern Kentucky W 76-60 89%     4 - 0 +14.6 +11.2 +4.6
  Nov 23, 2024 104   @ Georgia Tech W 81-58 70%     5 - 0 +29.5 +12.8 +16.8
  Nov 27, 2024 299   Alabama St. W 77-59 97%     6 - 0 +7.5 -2.5 +10.0
  Dec 03, 2024 42   @ Villanova L 60-68 40%     6 - 1 +6.4 +2.5 +2.2
  Dec 08, 2024 281   Howard W 84-67 97%     7 - 1 +7.3 +2.6 +4.9
  Dec 14, 2024 41   Xavier W 68-65 61%     8 - 1 +11.9 +0.9 +11.1
  Dec 20, 2024 78   Dayton W 66-59 67%     9 - 1 +14.3 +1.5 +13.5
  Dec 22, 2024 325   Grambling St. W 84-49 98%     10 - 1 +22.2 +15.9 +10.3
  Dec 30, 2024 89   @ Kansas St. L 67-70 61%     10 - 2 0 - 1 +6.1 +0.1 +5.9
  Jan 04, 2025 13   Arizona L 67-72 41%     10 - 3 0 - 2 +9.2 +1.3 +7.9
  Jan 07, 2025 22   @ Baylor L 48-68 28%     10 - 4 0 - 3 -2.0 -9.6 +4.2
  Jan 11, 2025 6   Kansas L 40-54 32%     10 - 5 0 - 4 +2.8 -16.7 +17.5
  Jan 15, 2025 94   @ Colorado W 68-62 62%     11 - 5 1 - 4 +14.8 +0.2 +14.5
  Jan 18, 2025 64   Arizona St. W 67-60 72%     12 - 5 2 - 4 +12.8 +2.5 +10.8
  Jan 21, 2025 17   Texas Tech L 66-68 44%    
  Jan 25, 2025 44   @ BYU L 67-69 40%    
  Jan 28, 2025 69   @ Utah W 69-68 53%    
  Feb 02, 2025 32   West Virginia W 64-62 58%    
  Feb 05, 2025 71   @ Central Florida W 70-69 53%    
  Feb 08, 2025 44   BYU W 69-66 63%    
  Feb 11, 2025 69   Utah W 72-65 74%    
  Feb 15, 2025 4   @ Iowa St. L 62-73 14%    
  Feb 19, 2025 32   @ West Virginia L 61-65 36%    
  Feb 22, 2025 62   TCU W 67-61 72%    
  Feb 25, 2025 22   Baylor L 66-67 48%    
  Mar 01, 2025 3   @ Houston L 54-66 12%    
  Mar 05, 2025 89   Kansas St. W 71-63 79%    
  Mar 08, 2025 101   @ Oklahoma St. W 70-65 65%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.8 3rd
4th 0.1 0.7 1.3 0.5 0.0 2.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.3 2.5 1.3 0.1 5.1 5th
6th 1.0 4.3 3.3 0.4 9.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 5.5 5.0 1.0 0.1 12.4 7th
8th 0.5 5.4 7.6 2.3 0.1 15.8 8th
9th 0.2 3.2 7.8 3.0 0.2 14.4 9th
10th 0.0 1.6 6.6 3.9 0.4 12.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 4.6 4.9 0.7 10.7 11th
12th 0.2 2.2 4.3 1.2 0.0 7.8 12th
13th 0.1 0.9 2.9 1.2 0.1 5.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.8 0.1 2.4 14th
15th 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.8 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 16th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.6 6.4 12.0 16.5 18.7 17.4 13.1 7.7 3.5 1.1 0.2 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 13.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 1.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 1.1% 100.0% 8.4% 91.6% 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 100.0%
13-7 3.5% 99.4% 3.2% 96.2% 6.2 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.4%
12-8 7.7% 97.8% 2.6% 95.2% 7.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.6 2.0 2.1 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.2 97.7%
11-9 13.1% 93.2% 1.9% 91.3% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.1 3.1 3.5 1.8 0.6 0.9 93.1%
10-10 17.4% 81.6% 1.3% 80.3% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.4 4.1 4.5 2.2 0.0 3.2 81.4%
9-11 18.7% 58.7% 0.7% 58.0% 10.2 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.6 4.8 0.3 7.7 58.4%
8-12 16.5% 26.3% 0.5% 25.7% 10.8 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.8 0.5 0.0 12.2 25.9%
7-13 12.0% 6.9% 0.2% 6.7% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.2 11.1 6.7%
6-14 6.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.6% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.3 0.6%
5-15 2.6% 2.6
4-16 0.8% 0.8
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 54.7% 1.2% 53.6% 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.8 4.2 5.9 8.6 10.4 11.1 10.9 1.0 0.0 45.3 54.2%