Houston
Big 12
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+19.5#4
Expected Predictive Rating+7.2#82
Pace60.5#355
Improvement-0.4#224

Offense
Total Offense+9.1#12
First Shot+5.4#43
After Offensive Rebound+3.6#34
Layup/Dunks+1.0#142
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#72
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#176
Freethrows+2.0#84
Improvement-0.5#255

Defense
Total Defense+10.5#1
First Shot+9.1#7
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#100
Layups/Dunks+2.0#118
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#28
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.3#37
Freethrows-0.9#238
Improvement+0.1#174
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 9.4% 9.6% 2.8%
#1 Seed 31.1% 31.6% 11.5%
Top 2 Seed 52.5% 53.2% 22.9%
Top 4 Seed 76.8% 77.5% 49.5%
Top 6 Seed 88.2% 88.8% 68.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 96.8% 97.0% 87.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 95.8% 96.1% 85.8%
Average Seed 3.0 3.0 4.5
.500 or above 98.6% 98.8% 92.2%
.500 or above in Conference 95.0% 95.2% 87.5%
Conference Champion 34.0% 34.5% 15.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.4%
First Four1.1% 1.1% 3.5%
First Round96.4% 96.6% 86.3%
Second Round87.8% 88.3% 70.8%
Sweet Sixteen62.9% 63.4% 43.9%
Elite Eight40.5% 41.0% 21.9%
Final Four24.2% 24.5% 11.8%
Championship Game14.1% 14.4% 6.1%
National Champion7.9% 8.0% 2.8%

Next Game: Hofstra (Home) - 97.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 55 - 5
Quad 1b5 - 110 - 7
Quad 26 - 116 - 8
Quad 35 - 021 - 8
Quad 44 - 024 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 320   Jackson St. W 97-40 99%     1 - 0 +45.2 +22.0 +25.1
  Nov 09, 2024 3   Auburn L 69-74 50%     1 - 1 +14.6 +12.7 +1.2
  Nov 13, 2024 244   Louisiana W 91-45 98%     2 - 1 +38.8 +12.8 +24.9
  Nov 22, 2024 131   Hofstra W 74-53 97%    
  Nov 26, 2024 9   Alabama W 75-73 59%    
  Nov 28, 2024 56   Notre Dame W 69-59 83%    
  Dec 07, 2024 85   Butler W 75-59 93%    
  Dec 10, 2024 124   Troy W 77-57 97%    
  Dec 18, 2024 138   Toledo W 81-60 97%    
  Dec 21, 2024 212   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 83-58 99%    
  Dec 30, 2024 86   @ Oklahoma St. W 74-64 81%    
  Jan 04, 2025 34   BYU W 75-64 83%    
  Jan 06, 2025 60   TCU W 75-61 89%    
  Jan 11, 2025 66   @ Kansas St. W 70-62 76%    
  Jan 15, 2025 76   West Virginia W 75-60 91%    
  Jan 18, 2025 71   @ Central Florida W 71-62 77%    
  Jan 21, 2025 54   Utah W 75-62 88%    
  Jan 25, 2025 6   @ Kansas L 67-69 42%    
  Jan 29, 2025 76   @ West Virginia W 72-63 78%    
  Feb 01, 2025 14   Texas Tech W 70-63 74%    
  Feb 04, 2025 86   Oklahoma St. W 77-61 92%    
  Feb 08, 2025 70   @ Colorado W 70-61 77%    
  Feb 10, 2025 11   Baylor W 70-64 70%    
  Feb 15, 2025 13   @ Arizona W 72-71 53%    
  Feb 18, 2025 53   @ Arizona St. W 71-64 73%    
  Feb 22, 2025 12   Iowa St. W 67-61 70%    
  Feb 24, 2025 14   @ Texas Tech W 67-66 55%    
  Mar 01, 2025 18   Cincinnati W 71-63 77%    
  Mar 03, 2025 6   Kansas W 70-66 63%    
  Mar 08, 2025 11   @ Baylor L 66-67 50%    
Projected Record 23 - 7 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.6 6.7 9.3 8.5 4.8 1.5 34.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.1 6.5 5.9 2.5 0.4 0.0 19.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.4 5.2 4.1 1.3 0.1 0.0 13.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.6 4.0 3.1 0.8 0.0 9.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 3.1 2.6 0.6 0.0 7.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.9 2.3 0.6 0.0 5.2 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 1.7 0.6 0.0 3.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.7 0.0 2.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.3 3.7 5.5 8.0 10.3 12.5 14.0 13.9 11.9 8.9 4.9 1.5 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.5    1.5
19-1 99.5% 4.8    4.7 0.2
18-2 95.5% 8.5    7.4 1.1 0.0
17-3 78.4% 9.3    6.3 2.8 0.2 0.0
16-4 48.3% 6.7    3.0 2.8 0.8 0.1 0.0
15-5 18.9% 2.6    0.7 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0
14-6 3.8% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 34.0% 34.0 23.6 8.2 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.5% 100.0% 60.0% 40.0% 1.1 1.4 0.1 100.0%
19-1 4.9% 100.0% 52.9% 47.1% 1.1 4.2 0.7 0.0 100.0%
18-2 8.9% 100.0% 43.3% 56.7% 1.2 7.0 1.8 0.1 100.0%
17-3 11.9% 100.0% 37.2% 62.8% 1.4 7.6 3.7 0.5 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 13.9% 100.0% 31.0% 69.0% 1.7 6.3 5.4 1.9 0.3 0.0 100.0%
15-5 14.0% 100.0% 24.3% 75.7% 2.3 3.2 5.2 3.8 1.5 0.3 0.0 100.0%
14-6 12.5% 100.0% 19.4% 80.6% 3.0 1.2 3.1 3.9 2.9 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 10.3% 100.0% 12.1% 87.9% 4.0 0.2 1.1 2.6 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-8 8.0% 99.7% 7.7% 91.9% 5.1 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.9 2.0 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 99.6%
11-9 5.5% 98.2% 5.9% 92.2% 6.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.0%
10-10 3.7% 91.7% 3.9% 87.9% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.3 91.4%
9-11 2.3% 69.2% 2.4% 66.9% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.7 68.5%
8-12 1.4% 39.0% 2.6% 36.4% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.8 37.4%
7-13 0.7% 11.4% 1.0% 10.4% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 10.5%
6-14 0.3% 1.6% 0.8% 0.8% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8%
5-15 0.2% 0.2
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 96.8% 24.3% 72.5% 3.0 31.1 21.4 14.0 10.3 6.8 4.7 3.0 1.9 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.2 3.2 95.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 1.1 93.0 7.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 1.0 96.8 3.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 88.9 11.1