Houston
Big 12
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+22.4#3
Expected Predictive Rating+20.7#6
Pace56.6#360
Improvement-0.5#213

Offense
Total Offense+11.5#10
First Shot+7.0#28
After Offensive Rebound+4.5#8
Layup/Dunks-0.9#219
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#27
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#63
Freethrows+0.6#142
Improvement+1.0#130

Defense
Total Defense+10.9#3
First Shot+11.2#2
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#216
Layups/Dunks+11.5#2
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#11
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#284
Freethrows-0.5#225
Improvement-1.5#275
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 14.9% 16.1% 11.5%
#1 Seed 67.9% 70.7% 59.8%
Top 2 Seed 96.9% 98.1% 93.5%
Top 4 Seed 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
Top 6 Seed 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 1.4 1.3 1.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 96.8% 99.0% 90.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round99.5% 99.5% 99.5%
Sweet Sixteen78.4% 79.1% 76.2%
Elite Eight55.8% 57.1% 52.1%
Final Four36.6% 38.2% 32.2%
Championship Game22.0% 23.2% 18.7%
National Champion12.8% 13.5% 10.8%

Next Game: Iowa St. (Home) - 73.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 44 - 4
Quad 1b5 - 110 - 5
Quad 29 - 119 - 6
Quad 34 - 023 - 6
Quad 45 - 027 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 271   Jackson St. W 97-40 99%     1 - 0 +48.7 +24.6 +26.0
  Nov 09, 2024 1   Auburn L 69-74 46%     1 - 1 +18.6 +14.2 +3.7
  Nov 13, 2024 289   Louisiana W 91-45 99%     2 - 1 +36.4 +12.5 +22.8
  Nov 22, 2024 227   Hofstra W 80-44 99%     3 - 1 +29.9 +17.0 +16.9
  Nov 26, 2024 6   Alabama L 80-85 OT 61%     3 - 2 +14.5 +6.9 +7.9
  Nov 27, 2024 95   Notre Dame W 65-54 94%     4 - 2 +16.1 +3.0 +14.7
  Nov 30, 2024 51   San Diego St. L 70-73 OT 86%     4 - 3 +7.7 +13.3 -5.9
  Dec 07, 2024 66   Butler W 79-51 93%     5 - 3 +33.8 +18.4 +19.5
  Dec 10, 2024 118   Troy W 62-42 97%     6 - 3 +20.2 +7.7 +17.9
  Dec 18, 2024 221   Toledo W 78-49 99%     7 - 3 +23.2 -3.1 +25.8
  Dec 21, 2024 199   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 87-51 99%     8 - 3 +31.3 +27.6 +9.9
  Dec 30, 2024 92   @ Oklahoma St. W 60-47 90%     9 - 3 1 - 0 +21.1 -4.5 +26.3
  Jan 04, 2025 26   BYU W 86-55 83%     10 - 3 2 - 0 +43.3 +26.6 +20.3
  Jan 06, 2025 64   TCU W 65-46 93%     11 - 3 3 - 0 +24.8 +10.7 +17.7
  Jan 11, 2025 56   @ Kansas St. W 87-57 81%     12 - 3 4 - 0 +43.1 +25.1 +19.3
  Jan 15, 2025 41   West Virginia W 70-54 88%     13 - 3 5 - 0 +25.5 +24.7 +5.4
  Jan 18, 2025 81   @ Central Florida W 69-68 88%     14 - 3 6 - 0 +10.6 +3.8 +6.8
  Jan 22, 2025 68   Utah W 70-36 93%     15 - 3 7 - 0 +39.7 +12.8 +33.0
  Jan 25, 2025 19   @ Kansas W 92-86 2OT 64%     16 - 3 8 - 0 +24.7 +19.7 +4.3
  Jan 29, 2025 41   @ West Virginia W 63-49 77%     17 - 3 9 - 0 +28.6 +16.7 +15.6
  Feb 01, 2025 10   Texas Tech L 81-82 OT 74%     17 - 4 9 - 1 +14.9 +13.0 +1.9
  Feb 04, 2025 92   Oklahoma St. W 72-63 95%     18 - 4 10 - 1 +12.0 +11.9 +1.4
  Feb 08, 2025 91   @ Colorado W 69-59 90%     19 - 4 11 - 1 +18.1 +17.1 +3.2
  Feb 10, 2025 24   Baylor W 76-65 82%     20 - 4 12 - 1 +23.8 +23.5 +2.7
  Feb 15, 2025 8   @ Arizona W 62-58 55%     21 - 4 13 - 1 +25.3 +7.9 +17.8
  Feb 18, 2025 65   @ Arizona St. W 80-65 86%     22 - 4 14 - 1 +25.9 +24.0 +3.8
  Feb 22, 2025 9   Iowa St. W 69-63 74%    
  Feb 24, 2025 10   @ Texas Tech W 67-66 54%    
  Mar 01, 2025 46   Cincinnati W 69-55 90%    
  Mar 03, 2025 19   Kansas W 70-61 80%    
  Mar 08, 2025 24   @ Baylor W 68-64 65%    
Projected Record 26 - 5 18 - 2




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 9.6 28.6 37.5 20.6 96.8 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 1.4 2.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.4 0.5 3rd
4th 0.1 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.2 2.1 11.0 28.6 37.5 20.6 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 20.6    20.6
18-2 100.0% 37.5    37.5
17-3 100.0% 28.6    25.1 3.6
16-4 87.2% 9.6    3.2 4.6 1.7 0.1
15-5 25.9% 0.5    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1
14-6 4.2% 0.0    0.0
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total 96.8% 96.8 86.4 8.3 1.9 0.3



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 20.6% 100.0% 46.7% 53.3% 1.2 16.6 4.0 0.1 100.0%
18-2 37.5% 100.0% 38.3% 61.7% 1.3 27.2 9.8 0.5 100.0%
17-3 28.6% 100.0% 34.8% 65.2% 1.4 17.9 9.9 0.8 0.0 100.0%
16-4 11.0% 100.0% 33.4% 66.6% 1.6 5.5 4.6 0.9 0.1 100.0%
15-5 2.1% 100.0% 19.0% 81.0% 2.0 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 100.0%
14-6 0.2% 100.0% 20.8% 79.2% 3.6 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 38.1% 62.0% 1.4 67.9 29.1 2.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 9.6% 100.0% 1.1 87.5 12.4 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.6% 100.0% 1.2 79.3 20.4 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 4.1% 100.0% 1.3 73.9 26.1