Houston
Big 12
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+19.1#6
Expected Predictive Rating+10.7#54
Pace60.2#354
Improvement-1.4#274

Offense
Total Offense+8.1#21
First Shot+3.7#79
After Offensive Rebound+4.4#10
Layup/Dunks-1.8#252
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#23
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#134
Freethrows+0.4#157
Improvement-2.2#328

Defense
Total Defense+11.1#3
First Shot+11.1#1
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#197
Layups/Dunks+12.1#2
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#31
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#267
Freethrows-1.1#261
Improvement+0.8#128
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 3.6% 3.6% 1.0%
#1 Seed 19.2% 19.4% 5.3%
Top 2 Seed 40.1% 40.5% 15.7%
Top 4 Seed 70.2% 70.5% 45.3%
Top 6 Seed 86.0% 86.3% 67.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 97.6% 97.7% 92.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 96.9% 97.0% 91.5%
Average Seed 3.5 3.5 4.9
.500 or above 99.6% 99.6% 96.8%
.500 or above in Conference 96.9% 96.9% 91.9%
Conference Champion 33.3% 33.6% 15.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four1.0% 1.0% 2.1%
First Round97.3% 97.4% 92.1%
Second Round87.9% 88.1% 73.9%
Sweet Sixteen60.8% 61.1% 44.1%
Elite Eight37.0% 37.2% 23.6%
Final Four21.2% 21.3% 11.7%
Championship Game11.8% 11.9% 4.6%
National Champion6.2% 6.3% 1.8%

Next Game: TX A&M Corpus Christi (Home) - 98.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 64 - 6
Quad 1b5 - 29 - 8
Quad 26 - 115 - 9
Quad 34 - 020 - 9
Quad 44 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 303   Jackson St. W 97-40 99%     1 - 0 +46.3 +24.9 +23.3
  Nov 09, 2024 1   Auburn L 69-74 36%     1 - 1 +17.8 +12.2 +5.0
  Nov 13, 2024 291   Louisiana W 91-45 99%     2 - 1 +36.1 +10.4 +24.5
  Nov 22, 2024 151   Hofstra W 80-44 97%     3 - 1 +33.3 +17.5 +19.7
  Nov 26, 2024 8   Alabama L 80-85 OT 57%     3 - 2 +12.4 +6.5 +6.3
  Nov 27, 2024 83   Notre Dame W 65-54 87%     4 - 2 +17.8 +4.8 +14.6
  Nov 30, 2024 41   San Diego St. L 70-73 OT 78%     4 - 3 +7.9 +10.5 -2.9
  Dec 07, 2024 74   Butler W 79-51 91%     5 - 3 +32.5 +18.5 +18.1
  Dec 10, 2024 125   Troy W 62-42 96%     6 - 3 +19.3 +6.6 +18.2
  Dec 18, 2024 211   Toledo W 78-49 98%     7 - 3 +23.5 -2.5 +25.5
  Dec 21, 2024 186   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 78-55 99%    
  Dec 30, 2024 97   @ Oklahoma St. W 74-63 84%    
  Jan 04, 2025 40   BYU W 74-63 84%    
  Jan 06, 2025 88   TCU W 72-56 92%    
  Jan 11, 2025 68   @ Kansas St. W 70-62 77%    
  Jan 15, 2025 39   West Virginia W 69-59 83%    
  Jan 18, 2025 84   @ Central Florida W 71-62 81%    
  Jan 21, 2025 66   Utah W 75-61 90%    
  Jan 25, 2025 10   @ Kansas L 66-67 46%    
  Jan 29, 2025 39   @ West Virginia W 66-62 66%    
  Feb 01, 2025 24   Texas Tech W 70-62 77%    
  Feb 04, 2025 97   Oklahoma St. W 77-60 93%    
  Feb 08, 2025 75   @ Colorado W 70-61 78%    
  Feb 10, 2025 12   Baylor W 70-64 71%    
  Feb 15, 2025 17   @ Arizona W 70-69 53%    
  Feb 18, 2025 62   @ Arizona St. W 70-63 74%    
  Feb 22, 2025 5   Iowa St. W 70-67 60%    
  Feb 24, 2025 24   @ Texas Tech W 67-65 58%    
  Mar 01, 2025 26   Cincinnati W 68-60 77%    
  Mar 03, 2025 10   Kansas W 69-64 68%    
  Mar 08, 2025 12   @ Baylor W 68-67 50%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 3.2 8.0 9.8 7.3 3.5 0.8 33.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.8 7.6 6.1 2.4 0.4 0.0 21.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.0 6.1 3.9 0.9 0.1 14.4 3rd
4th 0.2 1.8 4.6 3.1 0.5 0.0 10.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 3.1 2.6 0.4 0.0 7.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.9 2.2 0.5 0.0 5.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 1.6 0.6 0.0 3.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.1 1.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.8 3.2 5.3 8.3 11.4 14.1 15.2 15.1 12.2 7.7 3.5 0.8 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
19-1 99.4% 3.5    3.3 0.1
18-2 94.9% 7.3    6.4 0.9 0.0
17-3 80.0% 9.8    6.8 2.7 0.3 0.0
16-4 53.1% 8.0    3.8 3.4 0.8 0.1
15-5 21.2% 3.2    0.8 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.0
14-6 4.8% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 33.3% 33.3 22.0 8.6 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.8% 100.0% 49.2% 50.8% 1.2 0.7 0.1 100.0%
19-1 3.5% 100.0% 47.8% 52.2% 1.2 2.7 0.7 0.0 100.0%
18-2 7.7% 100.0% 40.6% 59.4% 1.4 4.9 2.5 0.3 0.0 100.0%
17-3 12.2% 100.0% 34.4% 65.6% 1.7 5.4 5.3 1.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-4 15.1% 100.0% 30.1% 69.9% 2.2 3.6 6.2 3.9 1.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 15.2% 100.0% 24.8% 75.2% 2.9 1.5 4.0 5.3 3.3 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 14.1% 100.0% 19.6% 80.4% 3.8 0.4 1.6 3.8 4.5 2.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 11.4% 99.9% 14.5% 85.4% 4.8 0.1 0.4 1.6 2.9 3.0 2.3 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-8 8.3% 99.4% 9.6% 89.9% 5.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.8 2.1 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4%
11-9 5.3% 97.2% 6.4% 90.8% 7.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.4 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.1 97.0%
10-10 3.2% 88.9% 4.9% 84.0% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.4 88.3%
9-11 1.8% 62.1% 3.4% 58.6% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.7 60.7%
8-12 0.9% 24.6% 2.6% 22.1% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6 22.7%
7-13 0.4% 7.8% 2.2% 5.6% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 5.7%
6-14 0.1% 1.6% 1.6% 11.0 0.0 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 97.6% 23.5% 74.1% 3.5 19.2 20.9 16.7 13.4 9.2 6.6 4.9 2.8 1.6 1.3 0.9 0.1 2.4 96.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 1.2 84.5 15.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 86.4 13.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 1.2 83.1 16.9