Notre Dame
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.3#77
Expected Predictive Rating+1.5#144
Pace62.8#327
Improvement-1.0#227

Offense
Total Offense+6.0#47
First Shot+7.2#25
After Offensive Rebound-1.2#262
Layup/Dunks+3.1#77
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#86
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#108
Freethrows+0.4#150
Improvement+0.5#154

Defense
Total Defense+1.2#133
First Shot+1.8#120
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#235
Layups/Dunks+2.8#77
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#299
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#215
Freethrows+0.8#125
Improvement-1.5#261
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.1% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.4% 0.7% 0.2%
Average Seed 10.8 10.8 11.0
.500 or above 42.2% 55.1% 27.3%
.500 or above in Conference 38.0% 50.8% 23.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.1% 1.4%
First Four0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
First Round0.6% 0.9% 0.3%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Virginia (Away) - 53.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 7
Quad 23 - 64 - 13
Quad 34 - 48 - 17
Quad 48 - 016 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 312   Stonehill W 89-60 95%     1 - 0 +17.6 +13.2 +5.2
  Nov 11, 2024 329   Buffalo W 86-77 96%     2 - 0 -4.3 -0.8 -4.4
  Nov 16, 2024 72   @ Georgetown W 84-63 38%     3 - 0 +31.5 +26.6 +6.8
  Nov 19, 2024 277   North Dakota W 75-58 93%     4 - 0 +7.7 -4.0 +12.3
  Nov 22, 2024 158   Elon L 77-84 82%     4 - 1 -9.4 +9.2 -19.3
  Nov 26, 2024 66   Rutgers L 84-85 OT 46%     4 - 2 +7.4 +10.8 -3.3
  Nov 27, 2024 3   Houston L 54-65 10%     4 - 3 +10.6 +1.2 +7.7
  Nov 30, 2024 33   Creighton L 76-80 29%     4 - 4 +8.9 +9.5 -0.5
  Dec 03, 2024 34   @ Georgia L 48-69 22%     4 - 5 -5.5 -5.4 -4.0
  Dec 07, 2024 103   Syracuse W 69-64 72%     5 - 5 1 - 0 +6.2 -1.2 +7.6
  Dec 11, 2024 274   Dartmouth W 77-65 93%     6 - 5 +2.8 +2.9 +0.3
  Dec 22, 2024 350   Le Moyne W 91-62 97%     7 - 5 +13.6 +9.8 +3.5
  Dec 31, 2024 104   @ Georgia Tech L 75-86 53%     7 - 6 1 - 1 -4.5 +13.1 -18.5
  Jan 04, 2025 26   North Carolina L 73-74 36%     7 - 7 1 - 2 +10.0 +8.3 +1.7
  Jan 08, 2025 93   @ North Carolina St. L 65-66 44%     7 - 8 1 - 3 +7.8 +6.3 +1.3
  Jan 11, 2025 1   @ Duke L 78-86 5%     7 - 9 1 - 4 +18.5 +24.4 -6.5
  Jan 13, 2025 195   Boston College W 78-60 86%     8 - 9 2 - 4 +13.7 +14.2 +2.2
  Jan 18, 2025 103   @ Syracuse L 69-77 52%     8 - 10 2 - 5 -1.3 -0.2 -1.1
  Jan 25, 2025 107   @ Virginia W 62-61 54%    
  Jan 28, 2025 104   Georgia Tech W 76-70 73%    
  Feb 01, 2025 155   @ Miami (FL) W 78-74 64%    
  Feb 04, 2025 58   @ Florida St. L 71-76 31%    
  Feb 08, 2025 137   Virginia Tech W 74-66 79%    
  Feb 12, 2025 195   @ Boston College W 74-68 71%    
  Feb 16, 2025 27   Louisville L 72-76 38%    
  Feb 19, 2025 37   SMU L 75-77 43%    
  Feb 22, 2025 40   Pittsburgh L 72-74 45%    
  Feb 26, 2025 30   @ Clemson L 64-73 21%    
  Mar 01, 2025 59   @ Wake Forest L 67-72 31%    
  Mar 05, 2025 87   Stanford W 75-71 63%    
  Mar 08, 2025 118   California W 78-71 76%    
Projected Record 15 - 16 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 3rd
4th 0.1 0.7 0.3 1.1 4th
5th 0.2 1.4 0.9 0.1 2.5 5th
6th 0.2 2.1 2.6 0.4 5.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.7 4.8 1.7 0.1 8.4 7th
8th 0.0 1.2 5.9 4.2 0.4 11.7 8th
9th 0.8 5.9 6.4 1.1 14.2 9th
10th 0.5 4.9 8.0 2.3 0.1 15.8 10th
11th 0.0 2.2 7.6 3.7 0.2 13.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.6 4.7 4.1 0.5 9.9 12th
13th 0.2 2.0 3.7 1.0 0.0 6.9 13th
14th 0.5 2.6 1.4 0.1 4.5 14th
15th 0.1 1.2 1.6 0.3 3.2 15th
16th 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.2 1.7 16th
17th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 17th
18th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 18th
Total 0.0 0.3 0.9 3.0 7.1 12.8 18.4 19.5 16.6 12.4 6.2 2.1 0.6 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0%
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.6% 17.9% 17.9% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 17.9%
13-7 2.1% 9.0% 2.4% 6.6% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.9 6.8%
12-8 6.2% 2.6% 1.1% 1.4% 10.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.1 1.5%
11-9 12.4% 1.0% 0.4% 0.6% 10.8 0.0 0.1 12.3 0.6%
10-10 16.6% 0.5% 0.5% 11.1 0.1 0.0 16.5
9-11 19.5% 0.3% 0.3% 11.7 0.0 0.0 19.4
8-12 18.4% 0.1% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 18.4
7-13 12.8% 0.1% 0.1% 13.0 0.0 12.7
6-14 7.1% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 7.1
5-15 3.0% 3.0
4-16 0.9% 0.9
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.8% 0.4% 0.4% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.2 0.4%